A Very Queer Thanksgiving Weekend Thread | We Here. We Queer. Move On. | 3-Day/5-Day: Black Panther 45.9/64, Strange World 11.9/18.6, Glass Onion 9.2/13.3, Devotion 6/9, The Menu 5.2/7.3 | Daddy Cameron, please save us!

[filmlover]

Strange World is going to finish with a total barely higher than Treasure Planet at this point. Brutal.

[M37]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Interesting that Deadline notes that Glass Onion has to come off from theatrical viewing this week, but can be brough back Dec 23.  I imagine a LOT of places may bring it back for Christmas, since they'll want to toss all the others openers from this weekend by that week, and there isn't THAT much opening in Avatar 2's wake...screen #10-12 might be an attractive fill, especially if Netflix makes it attractive on the revenue split...

You’re not wrong, may be worth a half a screen, but Netflix is so much more ubiquitous than other streaming platforms that I can’t imagine it would have a much of a draw 

[John Marston]

Black Panther 1 made 1.2 billion without China so BP2 is going to have quite a bit of a drop so let’s not pretend it’s a gigantic success. Loss also were predicting an easy  billion and that it would be the top grossing film of the year 

[Valonqar]

40 minutes ago, adaros said:

I think it will do good numbers Domestic but not good International. 

 

It'll do well OS too. Famous story, romance, spectacle, popular songs. Exactly the kind of thing that does well everywhere. 

[DAJK]

5 minutes ago, Maggie said:

How much will WF make in the end? Can it reach 1B?

No.

[CJohn]

Black Panther wins. Marvel stays mighty despite everything. The rest loses. What a bloodbath of a Thanksgiving.

[Flopped]

I had fun with Glass Onion. A shame they sold out to Netflix, could have made 200M domestic. 

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, Maggie said:

How much will WF make in the end? Can it reach 1B?

 

How? It opened in all markets. 

[InVy]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Strange World is going to finish with a total barely higher than Treasure Planet at this point. Brutal.

should probably fire the director - Raya had all the ingredients to be a knockout, and it was only OK.

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Black Panther 1 made 1.2 billion without China so BP2 is going to have quite a bit of a drop so let’s not pretend it’s a gigantic success. Loss also were predicting an easy  billion and that it would be the top grossing film of the year 

 

that's on them cause BP's ratio that skewed domestic was always going to be a problem. Franchise movies grow thanks to foreign markets. BP was never an OS thing in the way it was a dom thing. If they paid attention they would manage expectations.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Valonqar

[Kalo]

Seeing Glass Onion today.

 

What's so frustrating about this weekend is that it's almost like they wanted it to fail.

 

Had Glass Onion been given a full theatrical release this could have been the #1 film this weekend.

 

The Fabelmens should have been given a wide release this weekend as well, it still managed over $2m in just over 600 theaters. had it been playing in around 4,000 theaters it may have gotten to $10m. 

 

Strange World had almost no marketing and animation and sci-fi is kind of a hard sell to begin with. but with better marketing this could have opened to at least $20m3d/$30m5D imo

 

I'm a little surprised Bones and All made so little, but it was never going to be a large BO grosser.

 

What should have been:

 

Glass Onion A Knives out Mystery $50,000,000 / $73,000,000

Black Panther 2 $46,000,000 / $64,000,000

Strange World $20,000,000 / $30,000,000 (with better marketing, still not great but not a colossal bomb)

The Fabelmens $10,000,000 / $15,000,000

Devotion $6,000,000 / $9,000,000

 

[adaros]

27 minutes ago, Maggie said:

How much will WF make in the end? Can it reach 1B?

If it will reach 900m it would be super strong run, more like 830-850m imo

[Nikostar]

So happy for WF. Everything not so much.

[snarkmachine]

44 minutes ago, Maggie said:

But seriously now, the demo being this young shows Chalamet has a fanbase. He's a star and has a bright future.

 

 

 

When the audience is that small, does it even matter

[John Marston]

1    (1)    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever    Walt Disney    $45,900,000    -31%    4,258    -138    $10,780    $367,670,596    3
2    N    Strange World    Walt Disney    $11,900,000         4,174         $2,851    $18,600,000    1
3    N    Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery    Netflix    $9,200,000         696         $13,218    $13,300,000    1
4    N    Devotion    Sony Pictures    $6,000,000         3,405         $1,762    $9,040,000    1
5    (2)    The Menu    Searchlight …    $5,200,000    -42%    3,228    +17    $1,611    $18,670,443    2
6    (4)    Black Adam    Warner Bros.    $3,350,000    -27%    2,664    -708    $1,258    $162,972,609    6
7    (-)    The Fabelmans    Universal    $2,220,000    +2,374%    638    +634    $3,480    $3,429,766    3
8    (-)    Bones and All    United Artists    $2,206,000    +1,723%    2,727    +2,722    $809    $3,710,537    2
9    (5)    Ticket to Paradise    Universal    $1,850,000    -42%    2,238    -1,030    $827    $65,069,830    6
-    (6)    She Said    Universal    $1,100,000    -50%    2,023    +1    $544    $4,302,000    2
-    (7)    Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile    Sony Pictures    $870,000    -54%    1,808    -499    $481    $45,146,937    8
-    (8)    Smile    Paramount Pi…    $429,000    -63%    594    -975    $722    $105,473,000    9
-    (10)    Prey for the Devil    Lionsgate    $400,000    -56%    550    -819    $727    $19,119,293    5
-    (11)    The Banshees of Inisherin    Searchlight …    $339,000    -54%    402    -410    $843    $7,863,646    6
-    (-)    The Woman King    Sony Pictures    $160,000    +6%    525    +267    $305    $67,004,000    11
-    (-)    Triangle of Sadness    Neon    $115,000    -33%    77    -51    $1,494    $141,600    

 

 

honestly pretty weak drops for most films considering the holiday 

[interiorgatordecorator]

so when deadline published it first projection a few days ago for strange world's OW, they said disney expected close to 30 million over the 5-day, while "rival studios" said they expected sub 20 million, are "rival studios" usually much better predictors that the distributing one?

Asking mostly because in their first avatar projection they said Disney expected 150-175, while "rival studios" expected over 200

 

Edited November 27, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[interiorgatordecorator]

27.8 global opening for strange world, is missing 50 million possible? Wouldnt expect it, but it seems like SW likes to surprise people

Edited November 27, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[XXR vs XXR]

12 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

so when deadline published it first projection a few days ago for strange world's OW, they said disney expected close to 30 million over the 5-day, while "rival studios" said they expected sub 20 million, are "rival studios" usually a much better predictosr that the distributing one?

Asking mostly because in their first avatar projection they said Disney expected 150-175, while "rival studios" expected over 200

 

 

Disney just miscalculated on this one. Typically the distributing studio is more conservative so that when a film hits the number they truly expect, they can call it an over-performance. Rival studios tend to be closer to the real number, but just like Disney did with Strange World, they can also be wrong. 

Edited November 27, 2022 by Toruk Makto XXR

[GOGODanca]

Not sure BP2 will even hit 900m, its international numbers aren't looking too hot and now Round of 16 in WC and A2 in 2 weeks will cut that off, i'd guess around a 875m finish

[John Marston]

World Cup hurt overseas numbers. wF dropped 54%