A Very Queer Thanksgiving Weekend Thread | We Here. We Queer. Move On. | 3-Day/5-Day: Black Panther 45.9/64, Strange World 11.9/18.6, Glass Onion 9.2/13.3, Devotion 6/9, The Menu 5.2/7.3 | Daddy Cameron, please save us!

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

We are truly at a crossroads in terms of screen-based entertainment. People can talk about how "bad" 2022 has been but just wait until 2023. GOTG3 will be big,but how big? Ant Man QM will do okay but won't light the world on fire. The Marvels will suffer. Little Mermaid will be the next victim of the "anti-wokers" or whatever they are.

 

GOTG3 = $835M 
AMQ = $550M 

Marvels = $660M

Little Mermaid = $775M

 

[Factcheck]

MCU phase 3 average $773M excluding Civil war, Avengers 3&4(without China & Russia)

Phase 4 average $800M+

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

MCU phase 3 average $773M excluding Civil war, Avengers 3&4(without China & Russia)

Phase 4 average $800M+

 

Why would you exclude Civil War? Exclude NWH from Phase 4 and what's the average?

[M37]

17 minutes ago, Eric Clade said:

Even so, there's no obvious huge winner

Paramount: 

 

TGM

Sonic 2

Smile 

Lost City 

Scream 

Paws of Fury (lol)
 

No huge grossers other than TGM, but considering how similar titles/genes performed, they definitely “won” the year IMO. And all of these titles have two things in common: an emphasis on theatrical release, not just as a funnel for streaming, and a crossing the bar of high quality/uniqueness that got people off their couch and buying tickets 

 

[Eric the Ape]

Just now, M37 said:

Paramount: 

 

TGM

Sonic 2

Smile 

Lost City 

Scream 

Paws of Fury (lol)
 

No huge grossers other than TGM, but considering how similar titles/genes performed, they definitely “won” the year IMO. And all of these titles have two things in common: an emphasis on theatrical release, not just as a funnel for streaming, and a crossing the bar of high quality/uniqueness that got people off their couch and buying tickets 

 

No huge winner from Disney. Like I said, all the other studios had big stuff to crow about, and Paramount was for sure the MVP this year.

[Valonqar]

Objectively speaking, Marvel movies did what they were supposed to do. They just didn't exceed fandom set expectations. MoM outgrossed first DS by a lot which is what a sequel to a movie that didn't max out should do. Thor 4 stayed flat from Ragnarok (made tad more) dom and in non-China non-Russia territories but it didn't drop. BPWF, as someone said, is more of a spin-off and it followed a movie that totally maxed out. So it was never going to match or outgross its predecessor. It did what it was supposed to do - stayed profitable in the wake of an expected drop. All that may not be the kind of success fans hoped for but it's success. They didn't only break even or outright flop. 

[ThomasNicole]

23 minutes ago, SullyJake said:

Unless we are just going to call any movie with a black cast as woke these days.

They definitely do that imo, society is regreting. 

 

I've seen this "woke" discourse surrounding WF because all the leads are woman for example, it's very bizarre. 

 

But it's very hard to bury a Marvel movie so it's just noise in this case.

[Factcheck]

8 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

Why would you exclude Civil War? Exclude NWH from Phase 4 and what's the average?

Civil War was Avengers 2.5, NWH was a mini team up movie of 3 Spider-Man.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Factcheck

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Objectively speaking, Marvel movies did what they were supposed to do. They just didn't exceed fandom set expectations. MoM outgrossed first DS by a lot which is what a sequel to a movie that didn't max out should do. Thor 4 stayed flat from Ragnarok (made tad more) dom and in non-China non-Russia territories but it didn't drop. BPWF, as someone said, is more of a spin-off and it followed a movie that totally maxed out. So it was never going to match or outgross its predecessor. It did what it was supposed to do - stayed profitable in the wake of an expected drop. All that may not be the kind of success fans hoped for but it's success. They didn't only break even or outright flop. 

 

Meh. I was disappointed with MOM and L&T numbers simply because the films themselves were disappointing. They both left $100-150M on the table with their middling reception. As for BPWF, I'm fine with the numbers because the film is good. I just misjudged the audience/interest. As such, I'm revamping my expectations for the MCU in 2023. 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Eric Clade said:

No huge winner from Disney. Like I said, all the other studios had big stuff to crow about, and Paramount was for sure the MVP this year.

My fault, I misread 😔

 

But one other thought to chew on: the other thing those Paramount releases had in common was no huge, inflated budget. Disney is great at creating big spectacle and demand … but at high cost.

If we are now in a period where (at least domestically) top-end grossing potential is significantly reduced, then those big bets become riskier, especially as they’ve shot themselves in the foot by trying to pump up the D+ brand and subs, at huge loss on theatrical revenue 

[ThomasNicole]

MCU will suffer in 2023. 

 

Ant Man is a 500M grosser franchise without China, but will face worse exchange rates now. 

 

The Marvels is coming from a billionaire movie but the reason Captain Marvel was so hyped is the allegedly link with EG and the movie itself didn't seems to really establish a fanbase or something. It will drop way more than BP2 imo. 

 

Guardians 3 tho could be their best shot in a billion grosser. It's the final movie, we know not all characters are gonna make it until the end, and it's probably gonna be very fun and very emotional which helps rewatchability. 

 

Nothing will flop but it will be worse than 2022.

[Reed121]

People overestimated what a Black Panther movie could make without its main character. A 3rd movie without the main character will mostly likely make less than WF.

[Eric the Ape]

Also The Little Mermaid won't be hit by the "anti-wokers". They have no power on a movie's success or popularity. If anything, I'm confident that it could rank second for the year, only behind Indiana Jones.

[Spidey Freak]

34 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Objectively speaking, Marvel movies did what they were supposed to do. They just didn't exceed fandom set expectations. MoM outgrossed first DS by a lot which is what a sequel to a movie that didn't max out should do. Thor 4 stayed flat from Ragnarok (made tad more) dom and in non-China non-Russia territories but it didn't drop. BPWF, as someone said, is more of a spin-off and it followed a movie that totally maxed out. So it was never going to match or outgross its predecessor. It did what it was supposed to do - stayed profitable in the wake of an expected drop. All that may not be the kind of success fans hoped for but it's success. They didn't only break even or outright flop. 

 

This. 2022 MCU films are kind of on par with 2017 Phase 3 MCU films (all 3 2017 films fell in the 800M range, whereas 2 of the 2022 films will gross in the 900M range and one in the 700M). And 2022 did this without China and Russia. 

 

The only year for Marvel that was objectively better than 2022 was 2019 which the biggest movie of all time and 2 1B grossers which benefitted because they were directly leading into or coming out of said biggest movie. If MoM actually had been a Civil War type quasi-Avengers film, it would have easily passed a billion. WF is doing spectacularly considering it is missing its leading man from the first film. 

[InVy]

18 minutes ago, Eric Clade said:

Also The Little Mermaid won't be hit by the "anti-wokers". They have no power on a movie's success or popularity. If anything, I'm confident that it could rank second for the year, only behind Indiana Jones.

tbh we don't know. Little Mermaid is the first remake from the big 4 where they change the main character. How much their success is based on being as similar as possible to the original we'll see with her cause it should be easily doing a billion cause Little Mermaid arguably is only less popular than Lion King but we'll see. At least it's still a musical(cough cough Mulan)

[adaros]

29 minutes ago, Eric Clade said:

Also The Little Mermaid won't be hit by the "anti-wokers". They have no power on a movie's success or popularity. If anything, I'm confident that it could rank second for the year, only behind Indiana Jones.

I think it will do good numbers Domestic but not good International. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 hour ago, SullyJake said:

Its a strange example when 1, its going to mark MCU's biggest ever sequel drop and 2, it's not what I'd even call woke. Unless we are just going to call any movie with a black cast as woke these days.

 

20 years ago, no-one would have called the likes of Bad Boys woke

and in 2020 no one called Bad Boys 4 woke?

[charlie Jatinder]

31 minutes ago, Eric Clade said:

Also The Little Mermaid won't be hit by the "anti-wokers". They have no power on a movie's success or popularity. If anything, I'm confident that it could rank second for the year, only behind Indiana Jones.

I haven't seen the original but that teaser was so bad. Gonna bomb if film is of same level unless they could improve with trailer like Aladdin.

[Nikostar]

32 minutes ago, Reed121 said:

People overestimated what a Black Panther movie could make without its main character. A 3rd movie without the main character will mostly likely make less than WF.

I  no think it’s safe to say who will be the BP in the 3rd movie based on the reactions audience had to the end credits scene. Probably the best response to any MCU end credit scene.

[Spidey Freak]

37 minutes ago, Eric Clade said:

Also The Little Mermaid won't be hit by the "anti-wokers". They have no power on a movie's success or popularity. If anything, I'm confident that it could rank second for the year, only behind Indiana Jones.

 

The quality and reception for Indy will make or break it tho. I feel Little Mermaid has a better chance of being #1 as it only needs to be Aladdin-level good to win out.

 

Ofc this is assuming something like The Flash or Blue Beetle doesn't break out.