A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[DAR]

4 minutes ago, KlapEastwood said:

55 for Saturday, book it.

Prediction or an actual number you have.

[TwoMisfits]

So, we have $40-41M Sat or $54-$55M Sat - damn, we're like a Friday Deadline update...

[Brainbug]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

So, we have $40-41M Sat or $54-$55M Sat - damn, we're like a Friday Deadline update...

 

Question is, are we all as drunk as them?

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, we have $40-41M Sat or $54-$55M Sat - damn, we're like a Friday Deadline update...

Pretty sure neither is right at the moment lol. Just people throwing guesses around.

[cookie]

Why would it increase like 70%+ from true Friday? Has any movie this year with a significant preview number done that?

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Minions 2 was this year's example of the out of nowhere weekend - presales did not indicate ANYTHING like that weekend was...and then it still had legs...

 

Yes, I had to leave for a spell but when I was on the road Minions 2 came to me as an example as well.  Not only because of the insane preview number that was completely unexpected, but that weekend showed that it wasn't just meme-ing and it had a real chance at longevity.

 

Thu/Fri could have just been a flash in the pan.  Sat though was the first real sign that "wow, this really might be something".

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, we have $40-41M Sat or $54-$55M Sat - damn, we're like a Friday Deadline update...

54-55 is out of the question. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Ozymandias]

37m SAT

[M37]

51 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther says hello.  Others probably, as well. 

 

But for me the Out of Nowhere Saturday Number on top of the better than foreseen Friday is the Gold Standard for "Something Magical Is Developing".

For me, it’s some momentum (which your examples fit), with numbers consistently landing on high end or beating daily expectations/% change and/or mid-day estimates, the later of which suggests more late breaking ticket buyers 

 

Here was TGM’s daily and OW estimate by Deadline report: 

Fri mid-day = $50M Fri/$117M 3-day 

Fri eve = $51M Fri

($52M actual)

Sat AM = $150M 4-day 

Sat PM = $37M Sat

($38M actual)

Sun AM = $151M 4-day/$32M Sun

($36.7 actual)

Mon AM = $156M 4-day ($28.4M Mon)

($160.5/$33.6M actuals)

Even adjusting to new information as weekend went along, estimates still kept falling short, because WOM effect had begun and was adding even more to each day 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

For me, it’s some momentum (which your examples fit), with numbers consistently landing on high end or beating daily expectations/% change and/or mid-day estimates, the later of which suggests more late breaking ticket buyers 

 

Here was TGM’s daily and OW estimate by Deadline report: 

Fri mid-day = $50M Fri/$117M 3-day 

Fri eve = $51M Fri

($52M actual)

Sat AM = $150M 4-day 

Sat PM = $37M Sat

($38M actual)

Sun AM = $151M 4-day/$32M Sun

($36.7 actual)

Mon AM = $156M 4-day ($28.4M Mon)

($160.5/$33.6M actuals)

Even adjusting to new information as weekend went along, estimates still kept falling short, because WOM effect had begun and was adding even more to each day 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From memory Venom 2 kept on beating projections after every update.

[Firepower]

40 minutes ago, cookie said:

Transformers 4

Transformers 5

Six Underground

That's more like it. I felt chest pain while I was watching Transformers 5, truly the movie of all time.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

33 minutes ago, cookie said:

Why would it increase like 70%+ from true Friday? Has any movie this year with a significant preview number done that?

 

BECAUSE IT'S JAMES CAMERON! 

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, CanadianNaturist said:

 

 

1 hour ago, cookie said:

Armageddon is mid-level Bay. Falls apart once they land on the asteroid, IMO

The only good thing to come out of that movie was that banger of a song by Aerosmith

 

 

 

Spoiler

And Liv Tyler

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Realistically we're probably looking at $42-44M for Saturday. I'd say it's 95% likely to fall in that range.

[Eric Prime]

14 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

The only good thing to come out of that movie was that banger of a song by Aerosmith

 

 

 

  Hide contents

And Liv Tyler

 

 

[krla]

7 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

Also from Deadline:

 

"Avatar: The Way of Water easily gets an A CinemaScore, the same grade as its first film 13 years ago. PostTrak is still 5 stars, 91% with men at 58%, women at 42%. Men over 25 are the biggest quad at 36% (89% grade), followed by women over 25 at 24% (93% grade), men under 25 at 21% (89% grade), and women under 25 at 19% (94% grade) — arguably a great hearty turnout for each demo. Diversity demo update on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak audience exits are 33% Caucasian, 27% Hispanic, 17% Black, 15% Asian and 8% Other."

Makes you wonder, are they increasing the diversity by appealing more to minorities, or by decreasing appeal to whites? Because the latter would suggest they left $40m+ on the table by not bringing out a more representative audience.

 

2 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Edge of Tomorrow was very solid other than the ending, which I remember feeling like it was a copout.

I imagined a sequel in my head where Tom becomes the monster thing. He (inadvertently) starts turning humans into mind zombies, and the Emily Blunt eventually figures out it is Tom and has to find a way to kill him, and the monster, permanently. In the third film, we find out Tom actually got Benjamin Buttoned.

 

1 hour ago, Reddroast said:

Bay's best work is pain and gain

One of the best performances from both Marky Mark and The Rock.

[krla]

20 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

The only good thing to come out of that movie was that banger of a song by Aerosmith

 

 

 

  Hide contents

And Liv Tyler

 

Put another way, you enjoy things that come out of Steven Tyler.

[Ronin46]

11 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Realistically we're probably looking at $42-44M for Saturday. I'd say it's 95% likely to fall in that range.

 

That seems low. Not saying your wrong just that will barely get to 130. I was hoping 140 might still be on the cards but seems like no I guess.

[thajdikt]

Didn´t Charlie say 104M? As in 51M sat? Or was that something else

[shachi86]

2 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Thats a big bump for Saturday. WOM really spreading.

 

Must be all those "walk ups" we keep hearing about!