A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Cooper Legion]

6 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

Talking about Charlie, but where the hell is @RthMav Rtheimdall?

NotAnEvent

 

Spoiler

He’s having login trouble while on vacay or something 

 

[Cooper Legion]

But I was calling on him for review nums, not BO nums  

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Yes... Not saying it'll match TGM's 5.65~ multiplier... I don't see that happening. But, I am saying that 600M+ DOM wouldn't surprise me at all for A2. Would be something like a 4.35~ multi off a 135M to 140M OW DOM to get to a 600M+ DOM total. I think that's absolutely doable especially with the holidays and how long it has premium screens to itself. Weekend to weekend holds will be very impressive into February because of that...

Unlike you I’ve been out of tracking box office data since 2019, and while you might very much be spot on, I’d be shocked. I think the chances of hitting this kind of multiplier, even having the holidays and holding screens into February are slim, even if theaters are contractually obligated to do so. What I suspect might actually play with late legs are possible Oscar noms for both A2 and BPWF (don’t get me started with the travesty and vile shit that ‘teh academy’ did with Boseman’s widow in 2021, that was one of the most bullshit moves I’ve ever seen made by them) might have a play with repeated viewings, but even then I don’t see it as enough to break $600m for A2. I think the difference between A2 and WF will be around the 50-100m range at most Dom.

[CanadianNaturist]

Considering it dropped only 15% from OD and increased from 36 to 45 Million true Friday to Saturday I wonder what it means for its legs  

[BadOlCatSylvester]

13 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

Talking about Charlie, but where the hell is @RthMav Rtheimdall?

He apparently got locked out of his account according to @Shawn.

8 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

It will get a re-release in China down the line. Bank on it. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by BadOlCatSylvester

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, CanadianNaturist said:

Considering it dropped only 15% from OD and increased from 36 to 45 Million true Friday to Saturday I wonder what it means for its legs  

Considering it’s a super normal increase and pretty much right as expected it means nothing yet

[JustLurking]

I'm going to point out that TGM's multiplier being 5.65 is just because of memorial day. Without that shift in demand to monday it would've opened similarly to JWD and end with something more like ~4.95x.

 

Not saying that's not great, but worth keeping in mind there.

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I'm going to point out that TGM's multiplier being 5.65 is just because of memorial day. Without that shift in demand to monday it would've opened similarly to JWD and end with something more like ~4.95x.

 

Not saying that's not great, but worth keeping in mind there.

It’s still an undeniable box office beast. I might not ever watch it, but credit where credit is due, no one could see it coming. Same for No Way Home.

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Alligator Zatt said:

It’s still an undeniable box office beast. I might not ever watch it, but credit where credit is due, no one could see it coming. Same for No Way Home.

It changes nothing about how good its run was, I was just pointing out that taking the multi at face value here isn't quite accurate as it undersells its opening/oversells its legs a bit.

Edited December 18, 2022 by JustLurking

[BluKyberCrystal]

13 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

Unlike you I’ve been out of tracking box office data since 2019, and while you might very much be spot on, I’d be shocked. I think the chances of hitting this kind of multiplier, even having the holidays and holding screens into February are slim, even if theaters are contractually obligated to do so. What I suspect might actually play with late legs are possible Oscar noms for both A2 and BPWF (don’t get me started with the travesty and vile shit that ‘teh academy’ did with Boseman’s widow in 2021, that was one of the most bullshit moves I’ve ever seen made by them) might have a play with repeated viewings, but even then I don’t see it as enough to break $600m for A2. I think the difference between A2 and WF will be around the 50-100m range at most Dom.

What is going to take the screens from it?

 

I' rather new to all this, but I feel like 550m is the floor, with the lack of comp and what seems to be a rather good reception.  I'd plant my flag right over 600m domestic. Something like 605m.  

[Mulder]

Just now, BluKyberCrystal said:

What is going to take the screens from it?

 

I' rather new to all this, but I feel like 550m is the floor, with the lack of comp and what seems to be a rather good reception.  I'd plant my flag right over 600m domestic. Something like 605m.  

You can have good reception and no competition and still not have an insane multiplier/final result. Wakanda Forever got an A, had little to no competition, and still only really legged out to 400. 

[Noctis]

I never would have expected this to open to $130m-$135m. That is essentially a 25% increase (if that) when the first is adjusted for inflation. How much does the first's OW adjust to? $110m?

 

And Avatar 1 also had Sherlock Holmes and Alvin 2 to contend with which were both $200m grossers.

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

You can have good reception and no competition and still not have an insane multiplier/final result. Wakanda Forever got an A, had little to no competition, and still only really legged out to 400. 

Little over 450 probably. But yeah — you can have all the shows in the world and doesn’t mean people will be filing them at a favorable pace of exponential decay.

[stephanos13]

The next days up to 3rd weekend will give us a good look where this is headed.

 

Now are all just guesses.

 

I will say the floor is 540M with 4x multiplier and the ceiling will become clearer the next few weeks.

[Liiviig 1998]

Don't see this below a 4 multiplier.

 

Will settle anywhere from R1 to Avengers 2012 numbers.

[wildphantom]

I’m not sure we can perceive any film that might wind up with $1.5 billion with one major market in flux ‘middle of the road’. 
 

I know it’s the sequel to the most successful film of all time. But so was The Empire Strikes Back. So was The Lost World.  Once upon a time, sequels didn’t make more than their mega hit originals. It really isn’t remotely unusual.  
 

If TWOW making $1.5 billion after a thirteen year absence is disappointing, then recent cultural phenomenon Black Panther’s follow-up must be a disaster at not even $850 million*
 

*I don’t think it is by a long shot. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by wildphantom

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, Noctis said:

I never would have expected this to open to $130m-$135m. That is essentially a 25% increase (if that) when the first is adjusted for inflation. How much does the first's OW adjust to? $110m?

 

And Avatar 1 also had Sherlock Holmes and Alvin 2 to contend with which were both $200m grossers.

Yeah it’s about 106 going by CPI and maybe 110-115 on atp.  
 

By rank 147M.  
 

Adjusted  true FSS ~107M vs 118M here.

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, wildphantom said:

If TWOW making $1.5 billion after a thirteen year absence is disappointing, then recent cultural phenomenon Black Panther’s follow-up must be a disaster at not even $850 million*

I mean, they (tentatively seem to be headed towards) experiencing similar falls so similarly disappointing but at least you can point to the Chadwick tragedy.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, BluKyberCrystal said:

What is going to take the screens from it?

 

I' rather new to all this, but I feel like 550m is the floor, with the lack of comp and what seems to be a rather good reception.  I'd plant my flag right over 600m domestic. Something like 605m.  

Until February? Nothing. It will reign absolutely until then. February and March are packed though: Magic Mike (Feb 10), Quantumania (Feb 17), Creed 3 (March 3rd), Scream VI (March 10), Shazam! 2 (March 17), John Wick 4 (March 24) and it keeps going. Avatar will reign free January, but it doesn’t have the same kind of impact the first one had to simply keep going, neither I believe it will behave like TGM / NWH, not like TGM because I don’t see it having the same kind of cultural impact, not like NWH obviously because the OW for that one during a freaking pandemic - an environment a lot better than 2020 but still - was completely bonkers. 
 

I can’t stress enough how wild it is that a film featuring 3 Spider-Men made almost $2B worldwide. I wouldn’t dream of that without COVID, even less so how it did and without China. I’m sincerely heartbroken that I wasn’t around here to follow that run closely.

[charlie Jatinder]

Avatar 2 2/10.

 

This is what took Cameron 10 years? Should have ended with A1. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by charlie Jatinder