A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Joyous Legion]

5.8-5.9 for BP, still heading O/U AoU. Notably will pass TDKR. If Gotg3 +Dp3 also do that, top 10 CBMs (nominal) will become 9/10 mcu

[WayneBorg]

MINIONS 2 true Friday higher than Avatar 2 true Friday? Didn't expect that tbh

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Korra Legion said:

The great work is complete

Looks like a whiff, barely +15.

 

Gotta say I don’t love how avatar was approximately the least important film this weekend and the two movie making zilch the most 

Unfortunate sign of the times. I’ll be honest, I didn’t pay much attention to anything but ATWOW and used BOR/BOP for estimates on the others. 

[Joyous Legion]

23 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

Does that seem kinda low to anyone else?

 

45 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

Utter joke, it is the opposite of lot of walk-ins

 

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Unfortunate sign of the times. I’ll be honest, I didn’t pay much attention to anything but ATWOW and used BOR/BOP for estimates on the others. 

Have been thinking that I would prefer a weighted scoring scheme. Maybe to some kind of log function. I don’t expect official to change but might keep track on sheet for curiosity’s sake.

[LinksterAC]

So much of the reaction in here evokes the reaction in December 2009. I’m in a perpetual state of déjà vû. 

 

I’m definitely in wait & see mode, and after having seen the movie, a repeat of the original’s run seem totally within the realm of possibilities. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Just now, LinksterAC said:

So much of the reaction in here evokes the reaction in December 2009. I’m in a perpetual state of déjà vû. 

 

I’m definitely in wait & see mode, and after having seen the movie, a repeat of the original’s run seem totally within the realm of possibilities. 

As in 750M+ DOM or close to/over a 10x OW DOM multiplier?

[ThomasNicole]

Disappointing weekend, still expecting 140M but whatever at this point. Huge congrats for tracking thread tho, excellent work as always.

 

Very happy with the A Cinemascore, 5/5 postrack data and the good breakdown between groups of viewers.

 

Other than having nearly 0 competition, it's the reception it needs to thrive in the next weeks, which i'm still hopeful it will happen. 

 

Now let's see what next weeks can bring, it's genuinely sad seeing some members bursting of joy implying the movie is DOA but i'll try to just keep quiet instead of keep arguing endlessly.

Edited December 17, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[The Dark Alfred]

We got our first comparison material and it's evenly matched, albeit TGM's true Friday is higher than AVATAR 2's. Expecting a slighly better Saturday jump for AVATAR and a better Sunday hold for TGM. Will be a close OW battle, give a slight edge for WAY OF WATER at this point.

 

WATAIR DOMESTIC CROWN BATTLE  - AVATAR 2 VS TGM

 

DAY 1: AVATAR 53m (ESTIMATE)

DAY 1: MAVERICK 52m

WATER TEMP: HOT (+1m , +1.88%)

CUME: AVATAR 53m (ESTIMATE) VS MAVERICK 52m

 

SEA LEVEL: MINUS 665m

WATER FLOW: 722m

 

Note: TGM had a 27% Saturday drop (previews included) and produced a remarkable 4% Sunday hold.

Edited December 17, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[Jonan23]

Opening weekend may not meet expectations for some of us but for me this thread has which I have thoroughly enjoyed reading

[LinksterAC]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

As in 750M+ DOM or close to/over a 10x OW DOM multiplier?

Yes. 
 

The one baked-in drop off for this film comes WW in that China basically doesn’t exist anymore. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by LinksterAC

[Elessar]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

As in 750M+ DOM or close to/over a 10x OW DOM multiplier?

 

If it does 140m on OW it only needs half the legs of the original for a great 700m total. So the possibilities are still all there, it "just" needs some good repeat viewings...

Edited December 17, 2022 by Elessar

[Nero]

1 minute ago, The Dark Alfred said:

We got our first comparison material and it'as evenly matched, albeit TGM's true Friday is higher than AVATAR 2's. Expecting a slighly better Saturday jump for AVATAR and a better Sunday hold for TGM. Will be a close OW battle, give a slight edge for WAY OF WATER at this point.

 

WATAIR DOMESTIC CROWN BATTLE  - AVATAR 2 VS TGM

 

DAY 1: AVATAR 53m (ESTIMATE)

DAY 1: MAVERICK 52m

WATER TEMP: HOT (+1m , +1.88%)

CUME: AVATAR 53m (ESTIMATE) VS MAVERICK 52m

 

SEA LEVEL: MINUS 665m

WATER FLOW: 722m

 

Note: TGM had a 27% Saturday drop (previews included) and produced a remarkable 4% Sunday hold.

Avatar 2 ow would be bigger than tgm. After that though tgm will overtake it

[Webslinger]

Opening day number for Avatar is solid. This isn't a summer movie where the studio is throwing all their eggs in the opening weekend basket - it's a 192-minute sequel to a film released 13 years ago (from a director who hasn't helmed any other films in the interim), and it's clearly being positioned to be the dominant film through the next several weeks. A 50+ Friday and 130+ weekend represent an unqualified win, I think.

 

Now, if it doesn't hold up as well as anticipated, then I think you can sound the alarm bell.

[Vector Sigma]

31 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

380 M - 420 M

Anything with a 3 in front of it and I'm not convinced it beats Top Gun, which would be a disaster. This movie is not get legs like the 2009 movie, there really seems to be a genuine lack of interest. 

[Hatebox]

1 minute ago, Jonan23 said:

Opening weekend may not meet expectations for some of us but for me this thread has which I have thoroughly enjoyed reading

Yes, as someone who’s totally checked out of following the 17 MCU releases a year it’s been fun keeping abreast of an OW thread for the first time in ages.

[kayumanggi]

Just now, Vector Sigma said:

Anything with a 3 in front of it and I'm not convinced it beats Top Gun, which would be a disaster. This movie is not get legs like the 2009 movie, there really seems to be a genuine lack of interest. 

 

I would try to avoid such claims. This definitely will not be as leggy as the first, but an opening like this plus the great reactions so far do not equate to "lack of interest." Plus, we are just technically on its second day. Relax.

[Cap]

3 minutes ago, Vector Sigma said:

I'm not convinced it beats Top Gun, which would be a disaster.

Oh c’mon Best Picture Winner + Top Grossing Film Of The Year as a nice ring to it. ( @WrathOfHan )

[kayumanggi]

SOUTH KOREA

now at 17.3 M, 94% increase from Fri to Sat

 

CHINA

now at 44.0 M, Sat is 20.5 M

 

[Nero]

2 minutes ago, Cap said:

Oh c’mon Best Picture Winner + Top Grossing Film Of The Year as a nice ring to it. ( @WrathOfHan )

Avatar 2 winning BP?