New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

[kayumanggi]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

New years isnt as bloated as you think as the whole world gets a smaller NYE take like in the US.

So i would be very surprised if it dropped around the 45% take next weekend, which it would need to go under 100mil. Especially as its been grossing similar levels the first 3 weekends. That would be a pretty big drop for international,, even for a none holiday weekend.

 

Could be wrong of course, but i think the first film only dropped around 40% internationally on its 4th weekend. I'm not certain on that though.

 

We'll see. The first one held great again on its 4th overseas weekend because China opened on that weekend. But yeah, since January is pretty much barren, a sub-50% drop is possible.

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

 

Avatar is 100% playing well for families, that's not even up to debate. And PiB is playing well for families with kids too young to see Avatar (that's from BO pro). But it's not just a family movie either, it's a four quadrant movie. So it's going to play a bit like a "family movie", but not entirely. And it's definitely not playing like mcu/sw, way ahead of you there.

That wasn't at all what I said: Puss in Boots was 40% under 17 - Avatwo was not anything close to that, so it would be incorrect to refer to it as a "typical family movie", as it would be for an MCU film that also pulls in families

 

6 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

Bottom line: it plays well in early showings but also later showing.

Its really, really NOT, at least not in comparison to other PG-13 high grossing films. And that's OK; TGM was also not a strong late show movie, and it did just fine for itself! But understanding those nuances helps to better interpret daily numbers: for example VN's -31% NYE is due to the fact that is skews to later shows, while Strange World doing -22% vs PiBs -28% is likely due to the fact that SW has fewer evening shows, so the loss from NYE impact was less

 

 

[Borobudur]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

 

Its really, really NOT, at least not in comparison to other PG-13 high grossing films. And that's OK; TGM was also not a strong late show movie, and it did just fine for itself! But understanding those nuances helps to better interpret daily numbers: for example VN's -31% NYE is due to the fact that is skews to later shows, while Strange World doing -22% vs PiBs -28% is likely due to the fact that SW has fewer evening shows, so the loss from NYE impact was less

 

 

But how do you explain the tracking throughout dailies in the past few days have been up and up? If the night showing didn't perform as strong, the dailies should have miss early day projection. 

[MikeQ]

What a week for Way of Water, and an exceptional weekend hold.

 

I wasn't sure if it would be in this position. It's going to hit $1.5 billion in 2-3 days -- when just last week, there was discussion of whether it would be close with TGM or if it would even pass Jurassic World.

 

I'm not sure how it will play post-holidays - this will be the next interesting phase to follow in its run. Will weekdays be muted, but weekends be really strong (especially with lack of competition)? We've seen before that lack of competition in and of itself doesn't mean a film will hold exceptionally well - let's see how it does.  

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

 

 

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

But how do you explain the tracking throughout dailies in the past few days have been up and up? If the night showing didn't perform as strong, the dailies should have miss early day projection. 

FYI XXR's and Menor's predictions are working off a limited sample size and whether they go up or down can have absolutely nothing to do with how night shows perform - one of the biggest swings their chains just performed differently on the day than rest of the market. Whereas for Charlie's estimates often going up on actuals, can just attribute it to wanting to play it safe. Besides for estimates to go up in the evening you don't necessarily need to play strong, just stronger than expected, since the comps will probably be done looking at how said film performed through the day before.

 

Personally think A2 has pretty limited potential for night shows but mostly because of length rather than demo skew - most people don't want to leave the theater at like 1AM

[The Dark Alfred]

RO's lead is shrinking rapidly, another great day for A2, another 3.4m gobbled up from the deficit.

 

WATERSO SHOWDOWN  - AVATAR 2 VS ROGUE ONE

 

DAY 16: (SATURDAY) AVATAR 18m

DAY 16: (SATURDAY) ROGUE ONE 14.6m

 

WATER TEMP: HOT (+3.4m)

CUME: AVATAR 400.5m  VS ROGUE ONE 408.2m

 

SEA LEVEL: MINUS 153.5m

WATER FLOW: 607m

[Ozymandias]

Avatar beginning to outpace Rogue One is a bit is concerning.  I blame Hollywood for putting out a staggering number of aggressively bad movies/TV shows in 2022 to point where people are desperate enough for anything that they will settle for a middling CGI/tech vehicle.  I don't think Hollywood will take the completely wrong message this time and try to force 3D everywhere again so at least there's that.

[Cheddar Please]

51 minutes ago, M37 said:

It's not really though, probably a bit skewed left, median around ~$610M (depending on how one does the math, since holidays make it a bit fuzzier).

 

With that said, there's good reason to expect - especially after the last week - a trajectory more like the upper end comps. But there's nothing from a pure probability standpoint that says we won't see weekly drops like RO or even TLJ from here on out. And we're probably all sub- or even consciously just crossing off a lot of the lower end, non-leggy titles, leaving those under consideration appear to have higher distribution

 

Getting to say $620M from here would still be an above average run post-holidays

My rationale is that if the distribution starts at 530-690 it would be symmetric, with median of ~610 as you said, I just think based on the trends, the lower bound can be eliminated at this point, whereas there is still enough uncertainty about it's post holiday run as to not rule out the upper bound, not to mention the lack of competition in January pushing the potential for an outlier overperformance, thus leading me to a 570-700m range that's skewed right

Edited January 1, 2023 by Cheddar Please

[The Dark Alfred]

RO's lead is soon to be washed away, A2 took another 4.3m off from the deficit. RO only dropped 5% on Monday, so A2 has a shot to overtake RO tomorrow with a similar drop.

 

WATERSO SHOWDOWN  - AVATAR 2 VS ROGUE ONE

 

DAY 17: (SUNDAY) AVATAR 21m

DAY 17: (SUNDAY) ROGUE ONE 16.7m

 

WATER TEMP: HOT (+4.3m)

CUME: AVATAR 421.5m  VS ROGUE ONE 424.9m

 

SEA LEVEL: MINUS 133.5m

WATER FLOW: 613m

[Alexdube]

17 minutes ago, M37 said:

That wasn't at all what I said: Puss in Boots was 40% under 17 - Avatwo was not anything close to that, so it would be incorrect to refer to it as a "typical family movie", as it would be for an MCU film that also pulls in families

I know that's not what you said, I'm telling you that's what it is. Avatar is playing well for families. Just because of the kind of movie that it is, the marketing around it etc. At least that's what I assume, considering how well it's doing, that must be one of the demographic it's hitting well with. And it's not a competition with PiB over which one skews younger... OF COURSE PiB skews younger... I also never said it played like a typical family movie, that was not my point

 

Quote

Its really, really NOT, at least not in comparison to other PG-13 high grossing films. And that's OK; TGM was also not a strong late show movie

 

No but it's probably playing better in later showings (to be clear I mean any evening showings and later) than the typical family movie. That's my point: it's something in between.

[Eric Lasagna]

6 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Avatar beginning to outpace Rogue One is a bit is concerning.  I blame Hollywood for putting out a staggering number of aggressively bad movies/TV shows in 2022 to point where people are desperate enough for anything that they will settle for a middling CGI/tech vehicle.  I don't think Hollywood will take the completely wrong message this time and try to force 3D everywhere again so at least there's that.

Or maybe, and this is crazy, people have opinions that are different than yours? Ever thought of that?

[stuart360]

13 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Avatar beginning to outpace Rogue One is a bit is concerning.  I blame Hollywood for putting out a staggering number of aggressively bad movies/TV shows in 2022 to point where people are desperate enough for anything that they will settle for a middling CGI/tech vehicle.  I don't think Hollywood will take the completely wrong message this time and try to force 3D everywhere again so at least there's that.

I bet this was your fave film this year right Ozy?

 

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Avatar beginning to outpace Rogue One is a bit is concerning.  I blame Hollywood for putting out a staggering number of aggressively bad movies/TV shows in 2022 to point where people are desperate enough for anything that they will settle for a middling CGI/tech vehicle.  I don't think Hollywood will take the completely wrong message this time and try to force 3D everywhere again so at least there's that.

Or, Avatar show that CGI doesn't have to be like a glorified zoom background and can be cool like practical effect, as long as they reckon time, patience and craft. 

 

Or, Avatar show that 3D isn't a gimmick, they are just like every other filmmaking process su8ch as film editing, sound mixing, score, consume designer, set decoration.  

[filmlover]

18 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Avatar beginning to outpace Rogue One is a bit is concerning.  I blame Hollywood for putting out a staggering number of aggressively bad movies/TV shows in 2022 to point where people are desperate enough for anything that they will settle for a middling CGI/tech vehicle.  I don't think Hollywood will take the completely wrong message this time and try to force 3D everywhere again so at least there's that.

[M37]

13 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

I know that's not what you said, I'm telling you that's what it is. Avatar is playing well for families. Just because of the kind of movie that it is, the marketing around it etc. At least that's what I assume, considering how well it's doing, that must be one of the demographic it's hitting well with. And it's not a competition with PiB over which one skews younger... OF COURSE PiB skews younger... I also never said it played like a typical family movie, that was not my point

 

 

No but it's probably playing better in later showings (to be clear I mean any evening showings and later) than the typical family movie. That's my point: it's something in between.

Family movies (and older skewing ones fwiw) do really well during the day up to and including the 6p-8p times, and then fall off quickly after that. That’s the pattern we’re seeing for Avatwo, even though it isn’t skewing particularly toward kids (like PiB) or older (like TGM). But the net effect is a similar daily pattern 

[Firepower]

28 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Avatar beginning to outpace Rogue One is a bit is concerning.

Rogue One wasn't that good and it was also kinda CGI/tech vehicle, so not sure how it's any different.

Edited January 1, 2023 by Firepower

[Alex SciChannel]

Does anyone know what Sing 2 grossed in China?

 

Because Puss is tracking the same as Sing 2 excluding China since the Chinese don't care about talking Spaniard cats. But I cannot find any info anywhere the final gross of Sing 2 in China. Did it even have a release in Chfoa? but no grosses from what I can find.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by Alex SciChannel

[Ozymandias]

Just now, Firepower said:

Rogue One wasn't that good and it was also kinda CGI/tech vehicle.

 

Rogue One is like Avatar except without any visual imagination in it whatsoever with even flatter characters.  I was as surprised as everyone else when its prequel show Andor turned out to be the best thing to come out of Star Wars since 1980.

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, Andreas said:

Downplaying the result? As in a WW total under $2B would be something disappointing? Any movie that makes this kind of money is a success story, and your deduction based on what I've said is illogical.

No, I mean your attitude about it felt pretty negative in that post for some reason.

Edited January 1, 2023 by Firepower

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Does anyone know what Sing 2 grossed in China?

 

Because Puss is tracking the same as Sing 2 excluding China since the Chinese don't care about talking Spaniard cats. But I cannot find any info anywhere the final gross of Sing 2 in China. Did it even have a release in Chfoa? but no grosses from what I can find.

 

It did not release in China.