Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9

[Boxofficerules]

What are the chances that Evil Dead Rise out grosses Avatar 2?

[Flip]

If Puss in Boots manages above $12.5M then I'd say $200M is more likely than not, the holds are going to be insane with no family competition until Mario

[Lucas]

11 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

What are the chances that Evil Dead Rise out grosses Avatar 2?

Exceedingly high.

[CJohn]

Really solid start for Missing. 10M+ OW in play, I think? It will end with a similar total to the first DOM.

[Krissykins]

46 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I forgot about the reports of what ATP currently is. Still seems dicey to try to guess wo official updates like we used to get. I also think A2 final 3D share DOM is lucky if it hits 50%, hopefully we get data. 

Disney won’t give the data if it’s a big drop in attendance. Hollywood don’t like releasing attendance numbers and they don’t like adjusting for inflation either. 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Krissykins

[RichWS]

I know $11 is thrown around as the estimated ATP for 2022 but it must be much closer to $12 with how PLF-heavy movies are now. Hell, my local multiplex (non-major chain) raised their matinee price from $6.50 to $10 in December '21. 

Edited January 21, 2023 by RichWS

[Boxofficerules]

20 minutes ago, Lucas said:

Exceedingly high.

Sweet

[poweranimals]

Did TheNumbers delete their 2022 Domestic page? I can't seem to access it.

[Joyous Legion]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

So … better legs than Greatest Showman from this point? 

 

Bonus for me since that was my pick for next $200-$300M title, but I think you and I have very different visions of how the next couple of weeks and esp February are going to go
 

 

To be fair, last week when I said better legs than showman from there you were pretty skeptical but now it looks pretty likely right 😛 

[stuart360]

Just going back to the ticket price thing, i actually have a scrapbook from when i was younger where i used to tape my cinema tickets in.

Anyway in 97 Titanic cost me £5.20.

AVATAR in 2009 cost me £6.99 for 3D.

And today for A2, 2D cost me £6.99, and 3D cost me £8.99.

 

Its pretty crazy when you compare it to how high tickets go in the US over time.

 

 

[Grebacio]

2 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

What are the chances that Evil Dead Rise out grosses Avatar 2?

99%

[Ronin46]

2 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

What are the chances that Evil Dead Rise out grosses Avatar 2?

 

50/50 it would have beaten it this weekend if it had opened.

[M37]

15 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

To be fair, last week when I said better legs than showman from there you were pretty skeptical but now it looks pretty likely right 😛 

For the record, I’m still skeptical, and I certainly wouldn’t have that trajectory as the lower bound 

 

I just think there’s an under appreciation  of how the lack of competition/options is helping to float the holdovers like Avatwo and PiB; that alone can’t give a film good legs, but it absolutely helps
 

But I’m expecting a bit of a crash in February as that changes, something the comps didn’t see, because they had already passed more of that test and survived. There’s some regression to mean ahead IMO, so that puts me a little lower on both 

[Porthos]

 

[The Dark Alfred]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Failing to see how 700 is in trouble for A2 yet? Are y’all expecting horrible late legs in spite of the competition remaining incredibly weak overall, Ant Man aside? I do agree TGM is looking dicey now, but let’s see the Sat/Sun first. 

 

Failing to see how 700m is given, considering a sub 20m weekend with 100m to go. Its weekdays aren't strong anymore and it will start losing more PLF screens the upcoming weeks. Ain't nobody coming back for multiple viewings in standard screens and its not getting Oscar buzz.

Edited January 22, 2023 by The Dark Alfred

[BadAtGender]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Failing to see how 700 is in trouble for A2 yet? Are y’all expecting horrible late legs in spite of the competition remaining incredibly weak overall, Ant Man aside? I do agree TGM is looking dicey now, but let’s see the Sat/Sun first. 

Needs ~27% weekly drops to get to 700. Not impossible, but a long shot.

[Dragoncaine]

I walked out of Missing 30 minutes in - nothing to do with the quality of the film, but because everyone has seemingly lost their ability to be a respectful audience member.

 

In a small auditorium in my local theater, multiple crying babies (why do people still bring their infants into loud intense movies), 3 different big groups walked into the theater 20 minutes late, acting like they had no idea where they're supposed to sit in a theater with assigned seating, people directly next to me on their phones taking snaps with audio on AND that iPhone flash for every single notification they got, a huge group of teens walked in literally screaming to scare the audience 30 mins in, so I just left. Ridiculous.

 

At least the Eagles are putting on a clinic right now. Maybe I'll catch a matinee tomorrow morning.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Dragoncaine

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, The Dark Alfred said:

 

its not getting Oscar buzz.

It's pretty much locked for a nomination in Best Picture 

 

I don't think it will have any effect, good or bad, but it does have Oscar buzz lol 

[TwoMisfits]

37 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

I walked out of Missing 30 minutes in - nothing to do with the quality of the film, but because everyone has seemingly lost their ability to be a respectful audience member.

 

In a small auditorium in my local theater, multiple crying babies (why do people still bring their infants into loud intense movies), 3 different big groups walked into the theater 20 minutes late, acting like they had no idea where they're supposed to sit in a theater with assigned seating, people directly next to me on their phones taking snaps with audio on AND that iPhone flash for every single notification they got, a huge group of teens walked in literally screaming to scare the audience 30 mins in, so I just left. Ridiculous.

 

At least the Eagles are putting on a clinic right now. Maybe I'll catch a matinee tomorrow morning.

 

Sorry for your terrible experience, but I did want to highlight this absolutely correct statement!:)