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Mar 24 - 26 weekend thread - John Wick ̶3̶ 4 opens - woke up to a 5.9 monday | Jonathan is in Majors trouble | Shazam 2 crushed the Ant |

By interiorgatordecorator, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by misterpepp,

I'm not sure if it's already been mentioned here, but unfollow Deadline and Variety on social media if you're avoiding John Wick 4 spoilers. I haven't seen the movie yet myself, but I've been told they apparently are already spoiling the movie in headlines, which is especially bold given that about 95% or so of the people who plan to see this in theaters haven't done so yet.   EDIT: One of them may have re-titled one of the tweets/articles. Still, even the re-wording is kinda spoiler-y
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Posted by WrathOfHan,

Post of the night

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Posted by Dragoncaine,

Harvey Weinstein has worked with some of the biggest directors, writers, and actors in the game today. I am pretty sure if his behavior had been a problem for so long, it would've been well known much earlier.   Woody Allen has worked with some of the biggest studios and producers and actors in the game today. I am pretty sure if his behavior had been a problem for so long, it would've come out publicly before it did.   Billy Cosby. Roman Polanski. Kevin Spacey. The list goes

Facts. Stop defending trash people

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OncomingStorm93 Box Office Gold

OncomingStorm93

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I’d still put money down on just over $80m OW.

 

I know a few people who hadn’t seen any Wick films, but binged the trilogy over the past month in anticipation of 4. It’s pretty clear by the expanding returns of each sequel that the JW series has some of the best WOM in Hollywood. The series probably has a better overall perception than the MCU right now, even before the JW4 review embargo broke

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stripe Box Office Gold

stripe

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13 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 This is what I think as well, with the possibility that the word of mouth really lets it take off to push it over $80M, but that's probably more of an outlier scenario. 

 

On a different note, if this weekend does about $145M across all films, it should let March 2023 catch 2022 with a few days to spare.

 

January and February were in far excess of 2022 totals, but March 2022 had the first genuine hit, so, 2023 beating it is impressive. Especially as it's doing so with a diverse slate.

 

The irony is that next month, the question is whether Mario can lift a pretty weak April calendar over last year.


April will be quite solid. Mario should gross 250M+ through the month and there's D&D, that could hold very well to gross near 100M or even more. Add in JW4 sure to be solid run (90-110M), and late runs for Creed, Shazam! and Scream (easily combining 50M+). That's 500M before thinking in the rest of the schedule.

There are many wide releases, and a couple of them look like 25M+ grossers to me: AIR, The Pope's Exorcist, Renfield, Evil Dead Rise. Watch out if just one of them overperforms.
I don't get why there is a sentiment April has a weak calendar. It has 13 wide releases acording to the-numbers! The market needs to offer more variety of movies.

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Ronin46 Box Office Gold

Ronin46

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1 minute ago, stripe said:


April will be quite solid. Mario should gross 250M+ through the month and there's D&D, that could hold very well to gross near 100M or even more. Add in JW4 sure to be solid run (90-110M), and late runs for Creed, Shazam! and Scream (easily combining 50M+). That's 500M before thinking in the rest of the schedule.

There are many wide releases, and a couple of them look like 25M+ grossers to me: AIR, The Pope's Exorcist, Renfield, Evil Dead Rise. Watch out if just one of them overperforms.
I don't get why there is a sentiment April has a weak calendar. It has 13 wide releases acording to the-numbers! The market needs to offer more variety of movies.

 

I expect Renfield and Evil Dead to be 50M grosses.

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

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14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

John Wick minus first 15-20 mins in 3rd one and people saying "oh" after hearing his name in first one, is a big bore for me.

 

My ratings are I think

3

2

2

 

 

 

 

7fpuz3.jpg

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vafrow Box Office Gold

vafrow

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18 minutes ago, stripe said:


April will be quite solid. Mario should gross 250M+ through the month and there's D&D, that could hold very well to gross near 100M or even more. Add in JW4 sure to be solid run (90-110M), and late runs for Creed, Shazam! and Scream (easily combining 50M+). That's 500M before thinking in the rest of the schedule.

There are many wide releases, and a couple of them look like 25M+ grossers to me: AIR, The Pope's Exorcist, Renfield, Evil Dead Rise. Watch out if just one of them overperforms.
I don't get why there is a sentiment April has a weak calendar. It has 13 wide releases acording to the-numbers! The market needs to offer more variety of movies.

 

It feels weaker after a really strong March, but yes, as you break it down, it's a pretty safe bet. 

 

The two late March holdovers though (Wick and D&D) will likely each deliver a stronger result than anything from last April other than Sonic, but none of the actual April releases outside of Mario will likely beat either Fantastic Beasts or Morbius.

 

But as you said, it's a month with a high volume of wide releases, where we're getting multiple films each weekend. That takes the pressure off for any one particular film to perform, but, all it takes is one to break out.

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interiorgatordecorator Box Office Gold

interiorgatordecorator

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3 minutes ago, XXR Didnt Win An Oscar said:

JW3 went 9.63x off a $5.9M Thursday. You can probably reduce that IM about 10-15% for increased fan frontload and preview start time. 

 

not 80 million is what youre saying

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interiorgatordecorator Box Office Gold

interiorgatordecorator

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

John Wick minus first 15-20 mins in 3rd one and people saying "oh" after hearing his name in first one, is a big bore for me.

 

My ratings are I think

3

2

2

 

 

 

 

Think they're all very watchable 7/10 movies, this one might be a bit different from what im hearing though

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JustLurking Box Office Gold

JustLurking

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Shazam is going to crash even harder internationally than DOM this weekend...the film is DEAD in china, it went below 100k on friday with a 93% drop lol. SK dropped 86% for a whopping 9k gross. Asia really hates these films, jesus.

 

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interiorgatordecorator Box Office Gold

interiorgatordecorator

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6 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Shazam is going to crash even harder internationally than DOM this weekend...the film is DEAD in china, it went below 100k on friday with a 93% drop lol. SK dropped 86% for a whopping 9k gross. Asia really hates these films, jesus.

 

 

saw someone mention that the first movie was way too American in its humour for asia to enjoy

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