April 14th-16th 2023 Weekend Thread | $900K previews for Renfield

[KP1025]

For $700 million to happen, Mario needs to start pulling significantly ahead of Incredibles 2 on the weekends. They are neck and neck after Week 2 right now, but Incredibles 2 will have summer weekdays to narrow the gap. Building an almost $92 million lead on it to reach $700 million seems too much considering Incredibles 2 had pretty good legs too.

[kayumanggi]

What's amazing is that THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE will make 1B without much help coming from China.

 

Interestingly, INCREDIBLES II did that as well, having made "only" 51.5M from China.

[robertman2]

If Nintendo is smart, they'd have a new 3D Mario ready to go in the holiday season (bonus points if they have new hardware ready to go to)

[grey ghost]

I have to wonder how this movie is impacting Nintendo Switch sales.

[M37]

41 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

For $700 million to happen, Mario needs to start pulling significantly ahead of Incredibles 2 on the weekends. They are neck and neck after Week 2 right now, but Incredibles 2 will have summer weekdays to narrow the gap. Building an almost $92 million lead on it to reach $700 million seems too much considering Incredibles 2 had pretty good legs too.

Agree with this, but to be precise, they're not quite neck and neck; Mario should net around $110M for the second week, $15M less than I2 because of those summer weekdays, and be around $25M behind at the end of the week despite opening for on a Wed for two extra days in the run. Mario legging out the same as I2 from the second week (2.72x) would point to a ~$560M finish.  Without summer level competition over the next 6 weeks it might be reasonable to project somewhat higher, in the neighborhood of $600M/catching I2, but talk of $700M is getting way out ahead of the data

 

Will also add that Easter weekend is kinda weird, in that after the Good Fri bump, Sat & Sat are subtly softer especially for family movies, so a -30% second Sat may not quite be reflective of the base holding rate moving forward. I would pencil more like -35%, which if consistent would extrapolate out to a ~$570M finish. So same range, landing in the big gap at #14 all time, ahead of Lion King ($543.6) and maybe challenging I2 ($608.6)

[TwoMisfits]

57 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

For $700 million to happen, Mario needs to start pulling significantly ahead of Incredibles 2 on the weekends. They are neck and neck after Week 2 right now, but Incredibles 2 will have summer weekdays to narrow the gap. Building an almost $92 million lead on it to reach $700 million seems too much considering Incredibles 2 had pretty good legs too.

 

Late legs will help Mario, but it will depend how much love the May movies get.

 

Once you clear May 15, most colleges are done...once you hit Memorial Day, about 40% of K-12 schools are done (with the rest getting done over the next 4 weeks)...so there's an option for Mario to start some late-in-the-run early summer legs before Spidey...

[Torontofan]

Not surprised Mario is killing it.

 

Its a product that been famous since the 1980s and appeals to Gen X, Millennials and Zoomers and kids.

 

Film was fully of silly humour for kids and some jokes for adults (that depressing blue star lol) 

[narniadis]

As I noted in the weekdays thread, I will gladly eat egg IF Mario hits 90m 😁😁🤣 much rather enjoy a positive overage than a terrible drop. 

 

That Saturday # is just amazing. Would be in summer, and would have been amazing for opening weekend but for 2nd weekend its just *kiss* perfect. 

[Torontofan]

5 minutes ago, narniadis said:

As I noted in the weekdays thread, I will gladly eat egg IF Mario hits 90m 😁😁🤣 much rather enjoy a positive overage than a terrible drop. 

 

That Saturday # is just amazing. Would be in summer, and would have been amazing for opening weekend but for 2nd weekend its just *kiss* perfect. 

Huge 2nd Saturday numbers mean huge following weekends.

 

Likely looking at around 50 million 3rd weekend I think

[M37]

Also, where the hell did those $58M projections come from? Universal lowball? They were way too low based on weekdays, and now look absurd 

 

Fairly decent chance that’s where the 3rd weekend lands ($88M/-35% —> $57M)

[MightyDargon]

38 minutes ago, M37 said:

Agree with this, but to be precise, they're not quite neck and neck; Mario should net around $110M for the second week, $15M less than I2 because of those summer weekdays, and be around $25M behind at the end of the week despite opening for on a Wed for two extra days in the run. Mario legging out the same as I2 from the second week (2.72x) would point to a ~$560M finish.  Without summer level competition over the next 6 weeks it might be reasonable to project somewhat higher, in the neighborhood of $600M/catching I2, but talk of $700M is getting way out ahead of the data

 

Will also add that Easter weekend is kinda weird, in that after the Good Fri bump, Sat & Sat are subtly softer especially for family movies, so a -30% second Sat may not quite be reflective of the base holding rate moving forward. I would pencil more like -35%, which if consistent would extrapolate out to a ~$570M finish. So same range, landing in the big gap at #14 all time, ahead of Lion King ($543.6) and maybe challenging I2 ($608.6)

Mario will absolutely clobber I2 over time since it does NOT have summer level competition. Week 1/2 is the appetizer, the total run is the main course.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

16 minutes ago, M37 said:

Also, where the hell did those $58M projections come from? Universal lowball? They were way too low based on weekdays, and now look absurd 

 

 

 

Certified Deadline tracking moment. 

[thajdikt]

Will Mario beat Incredibles 2 DOM?

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

So, Mario has a realistic shot of getting into the top 10 domestic now right?

[VanillaSkies]

16 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Mario will absolutely clobber I2 over time since it does NOT have summer level competition. Week 1/2 is the appetizer, the total run is the main course.

I2 had amazing summer weekdays though. And to be honest, still had fairly good weekend holds despite the competition. 
 

I’m more inclined to agree with those saying it will be neck and neck, unless it somehow pulls something like a -20% drop next weekend. But that would be a very tall order. 

[filmlover]

 

I think Licorice Pizza is the only movie to score a higher PTA since the pandemic started.

[DisposedData]

27 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

So, Mario has a realistic shot of getting into the top 10 domestic now right?

I wouldn't say it's realistic, but it is no longer looking impossible. 

[Cappoedameron]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

I have to wonder how this movie is impacting Nintendo Switch sales.

Interesting enough 3 Mario Titles are in the top 10 on Amazon Video Games however to no ones shock the #1 selling game is not a Mario title,  it's the new Zelda coming out next month which looks absolutely incredible.

[filmnerdjamie]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

Sadistic as this sounds, I can't wait for the walk-outs/"WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS SHIT?!" reactions more so than the film itself.

 

My brother and I are going Friday night.

[Brainbug]

I agree with you guys @KP1025 @M37 i think i got cought up by the hype, i actually didnt think about thze huge advantage of the summer weekdays that I2 obviously had. 700M right now is indeed kind of ludicrous thinking.

 

Though still, 600M is far from impossible. The 3rd weekend hold will probably give us a very good idea if this one settles in the 500Ms or can get above I2.