GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

 

I wonder what source that was. 

Reddit exclusive analysis

[Austin]

Independent tracking services obviously 

Edited May 7, 2023 by Austin

[kayumanggi]

FWIW, GOTG III is now 81% on RT with a 95% auds score.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

‘Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3’ Rises To $116M Opening, Teeing Off Summer – Late Saturday Box Office

https://deadline.com/2023/05/box-office-guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-3-1235357869/

Quote

LATE SATURDAY UPDATE: Great news as Disney/Marvel Studios’ Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 held it together on Saturday with an estimated $38.7M, just -20% off from its Friday+previews’ figure of $48.2M. This will get the James Gunn directed MCU swan song to around $116M per industry estimates (not Disney), which is higher than the $110M we were spotting earlier in the week. Essentially, and logically, that great heat out there for the film kicked in. Phew!

 

The threequel’s Friday to Saturday ease is on par with the first film’s -18% between Friday/previews and Saturday, but lower than the -8.5% dip between those respective two days on Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. However, GOTG3 in regards to its box office trajectory was never suppose to be like GOTG2, and that’s not due to threequelitis distrib sources tell me. More on that tomorrow morning as Disney might be looking at more money here. Many will try to poke holes in Marvel, and yes, there is a concern about superhero fatigue, but it’s a $100M+ opening start to summer, so, shut up. The motion picture industry will relish this opening for GOTG3. The opening for GOTG3 is just above 2002’s Spider-Man from Sony ($114.8M) which was the first movie ever to debut to north of $100M+ in a given weekend.

 

 

Among other pics, Illumination/Universal/Nintendo’s fifth weekend of Super Mario Bros saw $8.2M on Saturday, +95% over Friday for a revised weekend of $18.6M, -54%, for a running total of $518.1M.

 

Sony/Screen Gems’ Love Again still isn’t finding any suitors, with an $813K estimated Saturday, -15% from Friday for a $2.3M 3-day. No CinemaScore was recorded, however, Rotten Tomatoes’ audience score was higher than PostTrak exits at 94%. That said, Rotten Tomatoes’ critics screamed ‘stay away’ at 12% rotten. Despite the low production cost at a supposed $9M net, a $2.3M opening is just nothing to brag about. Even if the film is profitable for the studio–which was the case with their low-grossing genre movie, The Invitation– this amount of money doesn’t do any great favors for exhibition.

TWELVE PERCENT FOR LOVE AGAIN?! WHAT THE FUCK?! I had no clue it was that awful! Holy shit!

[Gavin Feng]

Mario need $585.6M lifetime to hit 4.0× opening weekend. 

[cookie]

That's honestly a shockingly bad hold for Mario. I guess PLFs boosted it more than we thought.

[DisposedData]

This thread is eerily slow.

[ShadowWeegee]

There really isn’t a ton to talk about is the issue. Guardians is landing right around where it’s been pegged for a few weeks now. So it isn’t particularly exciting and in general the domestic numbers are disappointing for the holdovers as well. 

[Hatebox]

Guardians is such a weird franchise. I didn’t follow tracking at all, so a week ago if you’d told me it’d get 175m ow I’d have had no reason not to believe you. They seemed popular enough before now. 

[Willowra]

11 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

They don't have an RDJ figure, that's the problem. Not just Brie but absolutely no one has the combo of charisma, presence, charm, gravitas and interesting character to fit the bill. He was lightning in the bottle for the franchise. 

They don't have a replacement of Tony Stark in the MCU, but they are making Avengers movies, which itself is weird. It seems like Kang/Jonathan Majors is the lead of this saga, and they are using the Avengers brand to make multiple Kang movies. If this is the case, then the Avengers will be secondary characters in their own movies; it would be disrespectful to the team. It would be like making Lex Luthor lead Justice League movie and Apocalypse lead X-Men movie. So I hope that Tom Holland or any other Avenger leads the Avengers movies, not a villain.

Edited May 7, 2023 by Willowra

[Hades]

So Shang Chi 2 and Deapool 3 are the only upcoming MCU sequels likely to  see a domestic increase from  its predecessors?

[Mojoguy]

50 minutes ago, cookie said:

That's honestly a shockingly bad hold for Mario. I guess PLFs boosted it more than we thought.

It's fine. Mario has already won the year. I don't see any other movie coming close to it.

 

Next weeks drop should be better.

[Brainbug]

52 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

It's fine. Mario has already won the year. I don't see any other movie coming close to it.

 

 

 

??

 

Spoiler

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Not accounting this weekend drop, Mario seems like $580-590M finish. Lower than what it looked after 2nd weekend.

 

I haven’t paid attention, could be a bit lower if weekend drop is bad.

 

Don’t think $580M is good enough for year topper. Surely need bigger no, something like 700M ish.

2015 - $936M

2016 - $525M+

2017 - $620M

2018 - $700M

2019 - $858M

2021 - $810M+
2022 - $700M+ 
 

The last year under $600M was 2016, with inflation that must be around $600M today

Edited May 7, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Not accounting this weekend drop, Mario seems like $580-590M finish. Lower than what it looked after 2nd weekend.

 

I haven’t paid attention, could be a bit lower if weekend drop is bad.

 

Don’t think $580M is good enough for year topper. Surely need bigger no, something like 700M ish.

2015 - $936M

2016 - $525M+

2017 - $620M

2018 - $700M

2019 - $858M

2021 - $810M+
2022 - $700M+ 
 

The last year under $600M was 2016, with inflation that must be around $600M today

 

But what movies could realistically gross more than 580M DOM this year?

 

The Little Mermaid? I doubt it can be anywhere near Lion King-numbers. 400M region would already be great for it, but Mario is out of reach.

 

Indiana Jones? Only if all stars are aligned for it, then it could maybe have an epic run (i still believe in that actually), but theres also a high chance that it wont connect with the GA like Top Gun for example and will gross more in the 300M region than 500M or even 600M.

 

The Marvels? Nope.

Dune 2? In my wildest dreams, but no.

What else is there? I dont see anything. Mario is imo already locked to be Number 1 this year.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

The Little Mermaid? I doubt it can be anywhere near Lion King-numbers. 400M region would already be great for it, but Mario is out of reach.

 

Indiana Jones? Only if all stars are aligned for it, then it could maybe have an epic run (i still believe in that actually), but theres also a high chance that it wont connect with the GA like Top Gun for example and will gross more in the 300M region than 500M or even 600M.

these two best options I guess.

may be MI7 act as TGM than MI

Edited May 7, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

these two best options I guess.

may be MI7 act as TGM than MI

John Wick 4 proved that there is a hard ceiling for these bombastic action vehicles, so I don't see Dead Reckoning Part 1 grossing much more than $800M. Top Gun was also pure four quadrant cheese unlike Mission Impossible. I do still think it'll do around Venom 1 numbers worldwide and end up winning the silver medal for the year behind Mario.

[Spidey Freak]

2 hours ago, Hatebox said:

Guardians is such a weird franchise. I didn’t follow tracking at all, so a week ago if you’d told me it’d get 175m ow I’d have had no reason not to believe you. They seemed popular enough before now. 

 

A combination of various factors like the second film not aging well, it being 6 long years since said second film, Peter Quill's poor showing in Infinity War, and GotG3 being the first MCU film to follow Quantumania, so it has the thankless task of building back some lost goodwill.

 

Maybe it would have opened bigger with an RT score in the 90s

Edited May 7, 2023 by Spidey Freak

[Eric is Anxious]

Just now, Spidey Freak said:

A combination of various factors like the second film not aging well

But Guardians 2 is one of their best movies though what the h*ck

[Krissykins]

Yeh maybe they left it a few years too late, but them being in Infinity War, Endgame, Thor 4 and a Christmas special they probably diluted the demand a bit too.