THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[filmlover]

Yeah, Mermaid is about to see summer weekdays kicking in soon so $250-275M seems low, even with intense (albeit looking to potentially underperform for the most part) competition over the next month or so. Disney chose Memorial Day weekend after seeing how Aladdin '19 opened well in the same spot and then had solid staying power throughout the summer.

[Bob Train]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

That'd be under 3x. It's possible but I feel like this is the kind of movie to get a 3x. Nothing else really targeting its specific demographic for a while until Elemental at best.

Spider-Verse targeting the black demographic because Miles is black. There will be a fair deal of overlap.

 

Aladdin dropped over 53% against bomb KOTM that couldn't even open to 50m. With this one already showing signs of frontload, and weak day-to-day holds, and a 100m+ opener next weekend targeting the same demographic and taking every PLF, I think it will drop similarly to Black Panther 2, so a 60-63% drop.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Bob Train said:

Spider-Verse targeting the black demographic because Miles is black. There will be a fair deal of overlap.

 

Aladdin dropped over 53% against bomb KOTM that couldn't even open to 50m. With this one already showing signs of frontload, and weak day-to-day holds, and a 100m+ opener next weekend targeting the same demographic and taking every PLF, I think it will drop similarly to Black Panther 2, so a 60-63% drop.

Rocketman was also big in Aladdin's second weekend and KoTM was going for a similar demographic to Aladdin. Little Mermaid's much more female oriented and centric vs Spider-Verse.

[Bob Train]

5 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Rocketman was also big in Aladdin's second weekend and KoTM was going for a similar demographic to Aladdin. Little Mermaid's much more female oriented and centric vs Spider-Verse.

KoTM is definitely not similar to Aladdin, and as I said, it was a big bomb. Agree that TLM is female oriented but it's gonna lose every PLF and is coming off a holiday boosted weekend and facing a 100m+, if not 130m+ family film with the same MPAA rating and will compete for screens with said film.

 

TLK also dropped 60% so it's not that unrealistic, and that film has similar day-to-day holds as Mermaid is having, just bigger. I don't think people should get their hopes up for TLM's second weekend drop.

[Day and Date The Best]

27 minutes ago, TMP said:

Worst thing about the succession/barry twofers has been seeing the latter get absolutely drowned out in the conversation, but I thought that one’s finale was perfect for that show too

Barry is great but not as popular as Succession, but still great ending, this Sunday night HBO was legendary. 

[Bob Train]

It's looking increasingly likely that TLM misses 500m worldwide. Very surprising, I thought it would make 800m or so.

 

Probably will convince Disney to pull the brakes on these remakes and instead focus on sequels. Frozen 3, Incredibles 3, Zootopia 2, Toy Story 5, Finding Marlin, Monsters High School, 2 Rat 2 Ille, Moana 2, Tangled 2, Encanto 2, Coco 2, Cars 4 here we come!

Edited May 29, 2023 by Bob Train
I wanted to.

[charlie Jatinder]

TLM 30-34M 2nd weekend I would guess.

Edited May 29, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Flopped]

No Mermaid Sunday? 

[Liiviig 1998]

Thinking 37-40m second weekend

[John Marston]

Why does this nonsense still persist? No Solo was not released “between” Deadpool 2 and Infinity War and no Disney didn’t do a “shitty Job” at marketing it 

[Bob Train]

Solo flopped because Disney oversaturated the market by releasing Solo and TLJ within 5 months of each other.

[MrPink]

I don't think Disney marketed Solo well but it was conceptually a flawed concept from the get-go released at the worst time in the sense that the fallout of The Last Jedi had not cleared. Not that it was necessarily ever going to clear but if you wanted to release a SW film after TLJ, then Solo was not the one you'd want to follow it up.

[grim22]

8 minutes ago, MrPink said:

I don't think Disney marketed Solo well but it was conceptually a flawed concept from the get-go released at the worst time in the sense that the fallout of The Last Jedi had not cleared. Not that it was necessarily ever going to clear but if you wanted to release a SW film after TLJ, then Solo was not the one you'd want to follow it up.

Solo might have been a bigger hit if it came after TFA instead of after TLJ. Rogue One might have been able to do better in the Solo spot, but less than it did after TFA.

[Ryan Reynolds]

15 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Solo flopped because Disney oversaturated the market by releasing Solo and TLJ within 5 months of each other.

its a movie no one asked for, if anything it should have been a Lando D+ series

Edited May 29, 2023 by Ryan Reynolds

[charlie Jatinder]

ah we are doing star wars memorial this weekend. been a while since we did star wars memorial in a weekend thread.

[screambaby]

I don't think solo would have succeeded even if TLJ was universally loved (and horror if horrors i don't hate it)

 

Besides the fact there's no harrison the plot is just....not good

[Sckathian]

14 minutes ago, MrPink said:

I don't think Disney marketed Solo well but it was conceptually a flawed concept from the get-go released at the worst time in the sense that the fallout of The Last Jedi had not cleared. Not that it was necessarily ever going to clear but if you wanted to release a SW film after TLJ, then Solo was not the one you'd want to follow it up.

Yup. People just weren’t interested in this storyline and the declining ST box office shows the original three did not have the pulling power alone. Star Wars is an interesting product because it can make these massive returns on big space opera and galactic stakes but outside of that it’s incredibly niche.

 

It didn’t help how cynical this was (and by the numbers - how did Han get his name? Remember that throwaway line? Now it’s a plot element!) but ultimately most people just didn’t care for the concept.

[Boxx93]

Scott Mendelson from Forbes just tweeted on his twitter account that TLM is performing less like Aladdin and more like Solo A Star Wars Story due to its frontloaded nature and poor OS numbers. 

 

Yikes. Mena Massoud was right all along.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Boxx93

[grim22]

34 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Why does this nonsense still persist? No Solo was not released “between” Deadpool 2 and Infinity War and no Disney didn’t do a “shitty Job” at marketing it 

Reading this response from people who don't follow box office hurts

 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

Solo was shockingly decent, way better than 8 and 9 though that’s not really saying much. But the marketing made it look like trash, TLJ backlash was real (and deserved), and whatever his name is still was poor casting (though admittedly better than he seemed from the marketing).