Weekend Numbers | Weekend Estimates | 120.5M SPIDER-MAN: ATSV | 40.6M TLM | 12.3M THE BOOGEYMAN | 10.2M GOTG III

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Is Meg 2 considered as Hollywood Movie?

 

 

Grey area for sure, as it’s made as much for/by China as domestically, but whether you count Meg’s $145M in US/Canada or $153M in China as “domestic”, the non-home country aka international gross for Meg is basically the same 

[kayumanggi]

9 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Dial of Destiny should do well overseas. Crystal Skull did really good and Last Crusade made nearly 300 million overseas back in 1989

 

To be honest, I have no idea how THE DIAL OF DESTINY will do. Interestingly, THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL was actually the number one film overseas back in 2008. It was even bigger then THE DARK KNIGHT. Although I think things have changed since. We'll see.

[wildphantom]

Mermaid has done really well. The jury is still out as to how Disney’s family films will perform going forward with the Disney+ debacle that’s caused such a shift in behaviour.  The damage will be even more obvious when Elemental comes out. 
 

Meanwhile, the other family films from the rival studios can continue as nobody subscribes to them - thrilled they’re not in Disney’s situation. Sony not having a streamer and continuing to licence out to others has ended up being the best decision in this entire streaming disaster. 

[Eric Prime]

Just wanted to remind people here that you have one month left to submit a list for the Top 100 Warner Bros. Movies countdown. It's already very exciting so far with just 11 submissions, but your vote is needed to make it even better. So don't forget it!

 

 

[baumer]

42 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:

I've been around the block long enough to know who are new posters who want to learn and don't know any better, and others who seem to exist just to troll. And this G Doss fellow seems very much the latter. Almost all of their posts consist of "grr Disney bad" rhetoric, crying how every Disney movie is an epic bomb int he making, all designed to get people here in a tizzy and angry. We've gotten that quite a bit for the past few years and we don't need this crap here anymore. The choice quote from their first post that got them their first warning ever.

 

 

They also tried to accuse a user for lying when they said a showing for Little Mermaid they were going to was sold out. That is asking to start a fight, because why would anybody lie about that? Simply put, there is nothing that indicates to me this G Doss fellow is interested in the box office world and really just wants to be a troll. Maybe they will change their tune when they are back from their suspension, but we can only hope.

 

And of course I haven't been here much in the last 3 years or so, so that's why I asked you respectfully. Thank you for the answer, much appreciated.

[Jonwo]

29 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

DIS budgets are simply insane, there are many cases of overpriced movies after COVID (I still can’t believe they spent 340M producing Fast X), but as a studio DIS is the one with most consistently absurd budgets.

 

GOTG3 and TLM costs 250M, Elemental costs 200M, Indy costs 300M, Haunted House costs 160M 

 

I’m pretty sure with the reshoots and delays The Marvels probably costs 250-300M and Wish should be 175-200M 

 

It’s just unsustainable at this point, most of these movies could’ve been very successful if they weren’t so overpriced. What baffles me even more is that the movies doesn’t even look that expensive, most of them have poorly or mixed VFX or looks simply dark and unnapelaling. 
 

Instead of just keep firing talented people, they really should be revising how they can make these movies cheaper and also looking actually good. Some of the best looking movies of this year (John Wick, SpiderVerse 2, Oppenheimer, Barbie) all costs 100M to make so is not impossible.

The Little Mermaid TBF probably saw the budget increase as they had to shut down production during Covid but it's not easy to cut budgets especially in animation if you're not outsourcing it which is difficult for Disney because both studios are based in California whereas Illumination has the base in Santa Monica but the animation is done in Paris while SPA uses Imageworks which is based in Montreal. 

 

I don't think we want to see film budgets cut to the point where it affects the final product but I wonder if actually having to work under stricter parameters can result in a better product. 

[Issac Newton]

Chart below—Fathom title popped into the top 10 after a one-night-only play, pushing Open Road/Briarcliff Entertainment’s Kandahar to No. 11 with $765K.

 

1) Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony) 4,313 theaters, Fri $51.8M, Sat $37.4M Sun $31.25M 3-day $120.5M/Wk 1

2.) The Little Mermaid (Dis) 4,320 theaters, Fri $11.8M (-69%) Sat $16.2M Sun $12.6M 3 day $40.6M (-57%) Total $186.2M/Wk 2

3.) The Boogeyman (20th/Dis) 3,205 theaters, Fri $4.8M, Sat $4.4M Sun $3.1m 3-day $12.3M/Wk 1

4.) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Dis) 3,580 (-360) theaters, Fri $2.9M (-48%), Sat $4.4M Sun $2.9M 3-day $10.2M (-51%) Total $322.7M/ Wk 5

5.) Fast X (Uni) 3,467 (-621) theaters Fri $2.6M (-59%) Sat $3.8M Sun $2.7M 3-day $9.2M (-60%) Total $128.4M/ Wk 3

6.) Super Mario Bros (Uni) 2,344 (-804) theaters, Fri $940K Sat $1.38M Sun $1M 3-day $3.35M (-48%), Total $566.2M/Wk 9

7.) About My Father (LG) 2,464 theaters, Fri $576K, Sat $883K Sun $641K 3-day $2.1M (-51%), Total $8.8M/Wk 2

8.) The Machine (Sony/Leg) 2,409 theaters, Fri $535K (-76%), Sat $700K Sun $515K 3 day $1.75M (-65%) Total $8.7M/ Wk 2

9.) SUGA-Agust D Tour ‘D-Day’ in Japan: Live VI (Fathom) Sat $1.24M/Wk 1

10.) You Hurt My Feelings (A24) 912 theaters Fri $195,7K (-59%) Sat $318K Sun $255K 3-day $769K (-45%), Total $3M/Wk 2

[filmlover]

The fact Disney just let go of a bunch of people from Pixar two weeks before Elemental's release comes off as an admission that they know the movie is doomed tbh.

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

-58% isn't much worse than Aladdin's 2nd weekend 53% , especially coming off from inflated holiday OW. In fact, -58% is better than 90% of the movie that opened to above $50m nowadays.  I can never understand how people can describe TLM's domestic performance as bad, they perform right in line. The real "culprit" of the flop is overseas numbers which deserve no defense.  

 

If TLM gets over $300m DOM, it's okay for DOM. OS is where the potential flop comes into the picture. From the studio's point of view, this was greenlit with the expectation that it would make around a billion WW following the likes of Aladdin and Beauty and the Beast, especially given the huge budget of $250m (Aladdin $182m, BatB $160m).

 

If TLM gets to the $950-700m region WW, it'll be from success to okay for the studio. Under the $700m an internal blame game will start and under the $600m mark heads are going to roll (financial flop region).

 

Without knowing all the needed details, the breakeven point is around $600m +-$25m but we'll know much better when we see how the home entertainment sales go and how the actual budgets look from Pinewood Studios reporting in the UK in the upcoming months/half a year from now.

 

Scenario for the $600m WW breakeven point:

 

BO revenue: $300m DOM * 55% + $300m OS * 40% = $285m

TV & related rights/licensing fees: $150m

Home Entertainment revenue (DVD, BR, etc.): $75m

UK production repays: $50m

Other (e.g. merch): $15m

 

Total revenue: $575m

 

Production budget: $250m reported + 10% typical overruns = $275m

Marketing budget: $150m

Prints: $15m

Home entertainment marketing: $20m

Manufacturing (DVD, BR): $25m

Participation & residuals (crew, cast & key people income share): $35m

Studio overhead: $25m

Capital expenses & misc. (loans, capital interests, etc.): $30m (partly accounting method to discount the future tail revenue as present value)

 

Total costs: $575m

 

Looking at the needed revenue numbers, knowing that the original TLM had about 40% of the box office of the original Aladdin which skewed more to DOM than OS compared to the original TLM and BatB, who on earth greenlit this oversized budget compared to those latter two?

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

 

Looking at the needed revenue numbers, knowing that the original TLM had about 40% of the box office of the original Aladdin which skewed more to DOM than OS compared to the original TLM and BatB, who on earth greenlit this oversized budget compared to those latter two?

 

Different times, back then Disney was in a lot of trouble when TLM kick-started their Renaissance era. It took in lower box office but longer staying power in order to set the stage for the coming movies. Here the situations are reversed, the previous movies being big saddled TLM with huge expectations.

[Liiviig 1998]

27 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

To be honest, I have no idea how THE DIAL OF DESTINY will do. Interestingly, THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL was actually the number one film overseas back in 2008. It was even bigger then THE DARK KNIGHT. Although I think things have changed since. We'll see.

Expect it to do 400m+ OS but I think it will dissapoint Dom.

 

Expect Asia to be meh maybe Japan but that hasn't been kind to Disney releases post covid.

 

Europe should do the heavy lifting once again.

 

Releasing at Cannes wasn't a great idea. Presale wise don't expect much since we won't get the classic review bump if reviews were "good" instead  now it has middling reviews out for two months which will definitely affect and some of the audience . 35+ adult audience are always the most reluctant to spend their money or go to theatres. Those reviews won't persuade a chunk of that audience.

 

Expect to open decent enough stateside and have decent legs to a low 200s to mid 200s .

 

WOM will have a larger part to play  in that than your  typical nostalgia or curiosity factor for such sequels.

 

 

[von Kenni]

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Different times, back then Disney was in a lot of trouble when TLM kick-started their Renaissance era. It took in lower box office but longer staying power in order to set the stage for the coming movies. Here the situations are reversed, the previous movies being big saddled TLM with huge expectations.

Yeah, and I can understand the speed blindness with the previous successes from Aladdin & BatB. For the studio's expected ROI with TLM and how it was supposed to be a less risky proposition than many others, it's a massive financial disappointment for the studio. If the budget would have been less than $200m it would be in the okayish category, even if still disappointing with the rev numbers.

 

AtSV with its $100m budget is a great success even if it wouldn't gross much more than TLM which it looks like it will.

[wildphantom]

11 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Different times, back then Disney was in a lot of trouble when TLM kick-started their Renaissance era. It took in lower box office but longer staying power in order to set the stage for the coming movies. Here the situations are reversed, the previous movies being big saddled TLM with huge expectations.

Yep. They’re having to set the stage again as far as getting families worldwide to pay to see their films again like they used to. The appetite is there. 

[eddyxx]

3 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

‘Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse’ Swings To Best Opening Of Summer YTD With $120M+ Beating ‘Guardians’ – Updated Box Office

 

SUNDAY AM: When Paramount lost Marvel to Disney, any even distribution of franchises among the major studios was disrupted. However, Sony’s reported $7M acquisition of Marvel’s Spider-Man franchise back in 1998 has continued to pay off, no more evident than this weekend as Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse posted an exceptional and $120.5M opening — one which tracking didn’t see coming, but exhibition did– making it the best start for a summer tentpole YTD, the third best opening for a Spider-Man movie….

holy shit, they paid only 7 million for the spider-man film rights? what a steal. a deal like that in 2023 would be worth probably 4-8 billion for rights of spider-man alone.

[Jonwo]

5 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Yep. They’re having to set the stage again as far as getting families worldwide to pay to see their films again like they used to. The appetite is there. 

I'm sure it'll happen, every time Disney has a slump, they come back stronger but I would say t they're not in any real danger as a company as the theme parks have record attendance and Marvel merchandise alone generates huge income, the new Spider-Man 2 game will be a hit for Sony but Disney will see some nice returns on it as well. 

[screambaby]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Dial of Destiny should do well overseas. Crystal Skull did really good and Last Crusade made nearly 300 million overseas back in 1989

God I hope so

[Samwise the Brave]

What is everyone thinking for ATSV's Worldwide total? I think the absolute lowest is $550M and absolute highest $1B. I know that's too much of a range, so do you guys have more concrete ranges? 

[Spidey Freak]

36 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Looking at the needed revenue numbers, knowing that the original TLM had about 40% of the box office of the original Aladdin which skewed more to DOM than OS compared to the original TLM and BatB, who on earth greenlit this oversized budget compared to those latter two?

 

There was a reason TLM was the very last of the Big 4 Renaissance films to be remade. The underwater setting was always gonna cost $$

 

Anyways, TLM won't be a money loser even if it flops internationally as it will be very lucrative for Disney+ down the line.

[grim22]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

 

To be honest, I have no idea how THE DIAL OF DESTINY will do. Interestingly, THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL was actually the number one film overseas back in 2008. It was even bigger then THE DARK KNIGHT. Although I think things have changed since. We'll see.

One of my favorite random box office facts is that the #3 OS movie of 2008 was Mamma Mia which did 450M OS just behind the 470M of IJ4 and TDK.

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, Samwise the Brave said:

What is everyone thinking for ATSV's Worldwide total? I think the absolute lowest is $550M and absolute highest $1B. I know that's too much of a range, so do you guys have more concrete ranges? 

Anything above The Little Mermaid. But, need to be a bit optimistic - some markets are showing frontloadness (Eg. Indonesia OD ~ $400K (Wed OD) // Total by SUN (only $1.7M)

 

So kinda a bit worried where it's heading