Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

[Starphanluke]

4 minutes ago, Shawn said:

FYI, added Thursday's portion

Huh, stronger slant towards true Thursday than I expected.

[M37]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

To be serious about this movie for a short moment, i could see it opening in the same range as the first one (40M ish). The concept of Jason Statham vs big sharks but with a 100M budget is not a bad pitch at all and the trailer did make it look like a really fun (or funny) ride. Late summer also lacks a really big movie which would suck up the oxygen so theres room for a smaller breakout.

 

I have the bar a little higher, beating the first at $50M+ OW, because as you said, there's just not much else in that lane for weeks on either side of the release

[Starphanluke]

5 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

61/53

Damn idk. I might be in the >$60m camp for Transformers now. Walkups were strong on Thursday.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

8 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Huh, stronger slant towards true Thursday than I expected.

Yeah, not much about this movie's trajectory went as most expected. Presale tracking (my own included) was too bearish for weeks, traditional industry tracking was (likely) too high... let's see how true Friday turns out and get better perspective.

[Webslinger]

I love seeing Spider-Man in double digits throughout the full set of weekdays. Here's to hoping it has lots and lots of staying power.

[John Marston]

High 50s isn’t good for a 200m budgeted movie 

[Kon]

21 minutes ago, Marathon said:

The human characters cast are complete unknowns overseas. If they wanted better overseas performance, they would have cast actors who are popular overseas. But I guess they penny-pinched with that due to the movie being otherwise so expensive.

I don't really think more known overseas actors will really help. Transformers aren't the kind of movies that would benefit from that.

 

In itself, I don't think overseas audiences care so much about known Ametican actors.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Kon

[Torontofan]

Overseas market i think is more in the market for large epic films 

 

No way Home made 1.2 billion dollars overseas during Omicron for crying out loud lol 

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

So Transformers w/ much worse presales, reviews, and general buzz may do mid 60s, but we think Flash is going to same ball park?

 

 

hasn’t TF always been a more walk up friendly franchise?

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Yeah, not much about this movie's trajectory went as most expected. Presale tracking (my own included) was too bearish for weeks, traditional industry tracking was (likely) too high... let's see how true Friday turns out and get better perspective.

Feels a bit like a GOTG3 redux, where soft tracking indicated a higher level of interest than hard tracking (pre sales) was showing, and it wasn’t until reviews met whatever bar the public had set that they started to converge 

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

I didn't realize TLK opened to only 44.6m.

 

 

 

I feel like that movie was trying to go out of the way to alienate everyone 

 

 

it still had annoying humor and human characters but also didn’t have much action and a ridiculously over complicated plot. Easily one of the most mind baffling blockbusters ever made 

[Ezen Baklattan]

Considering the overperformance of TF, especially in how it took pretty much every PLF screen, Spider-Verse staying over $10M feels extremely impressive. Matching WW's holds feels a bit too optimistic, which puts it at $65m, but I think there's a strong path for both making $60m this coming weekend.

 

At this point, I think Transformers takes the crown though, and I think if the stronger than expected walkups from last night are any indication, even $70m could be in play for it.

[filmlover]

Should be about $50-55M for the weekend for Transformers, not too bad all things considered.

[robertman2]

LETS GO TRANSFORMERS SWEEP WOOOOOOOOOOO

[KP1025]

13 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

Overseas market i think is more in the market for large epic films 

 

No way Home made 1.2 billion dollars overseas during Omicron for crying out loud lol 

 

That's a common trend both before and after the pandemic. 

 

If you look at Top 5 post-Covid OS gross, the only exception is Mario (but that was huge for other obvious reasons).

 

Avatar 2: $1,636,174,514

NWH: $1,107,732,041

TGM: $776,963,471

Mario: $738,589,354 (and counting)

JWD: 625,127,000

Edited June 9, 2023 by KP1025

[Liiviig 1998]

5 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

Considering the overperformance of TF, especially in how it took pretty much every PLF screen, Spider-Verse staying over $10M feels extremely impressive. Matching WW's holds feels a bit too optimistic, which puts it at $65m, but I think there's a strong path for both making $60m this coming weekend.

 

At this point, I think Transformers takes the crown though, and I think if the stronger than expected walkups from last night are any indication, even $70m could be in play for it.

Preview includes EA numbers(1.2m) True Thurs 7.6m so like 55-60m weekend . Fingers crossed hope Friday surprises .

[Flopped]

I'm laughing at even Thursdays being "True Thursday" now. 

[DAJK]

The thing that people don’t consider when proclaiming “theaters are dead” because a movie is a flop because of its budget (say, Fast X makes a lot of money, but not enough for its 340M budget therefore movie theaters are dead, or same for transformers at 200M) is that the budget doesn’t matter to the movie theater. All that matters are raw numbers.

 

For a movie theater, a 340M blockbuster that “flopped” because it only made 100M domestic is still a bigger hit than an indie sleeper that made 45M domestic on a 2M budget. 
 

So something like this Transformers overperformance is nothing less than fantastic for movie theaters.

[CJohn]

500M WW and I think Paramount keeps this timeline going for TF.