Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

[Serpico Jones]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Either a sequel or a full reboot. Instead they tried both. You need to be clear to your audience. Most people think this is a prequel to the Bayformers movies.

They need to dump hack producer Lorenzo di Bonaventura. He’s the one who won’t allow a full on reboot.

[BluKyberCrystal]

2 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Why are Hispanic's not counted as Caucasians? 

Because a lot of us Latin folk aren't white. In Central America and the Caribbean, most of us aren't.

[Valonqar]

55 minutes ago, YM! said:

A huge diverse audience as expected at 30% Black, 28% Latino and Hispanic ( a growth in these first two demos as Bumblebee drew 25% Latino and Hispanic and 14% Black), 25% Caucasian and 17% Asian/other.

 

That's TLM. SV had the biggest Latino/Hispanic share of all its audience share from what I remember.

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

Just checked Fast X's boxoffice on BOM. Holy cow OS really saved that one's face! But 700M is dead no?

 

TLM and ATSV are going to be dom skewing or does ATSV has a shot at 50/50? No idea how it's doing OS compared to dom. Wonder if it could close to 800M for real doubling of ITSV's gross. Since 400M+ is locked dom. 

 

 

Need someone to answer this. I’m curious as well 

[JustLurking]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Just checked Fast X's boxoffice on BOM. Holy cow OS really saved that one's face! But 700M is dead no?

 

TLM and ATSV are going to be dom skewing or does ATSV has a shot at 50/50? No idea how it's doing OS compared to dom. Wonder if it could close to 800M for real doubling of ITSV's gross. Since 400M+ is locked dom. 

 

 

SV won't make 50/50 but it's still a solid bump overseas from the first one overall.

[titanic2187]

34 minutes ago, M37 said:

Well ... OK then. Also a big family audience apparently? I guess that explains the late surge, didn't play like a blockbuster, but closer to something like Sonic or Minions

 

That also still leaves GTOG3 as the last major release (not counting Book Club 2) where white was the highest diversity demo. I'm sure that flips with the Indy/MI7/Opp/Barbie stretch, but interesting nonetheless

Yeah, July's line up look a lot more "white" friendly than June. That is why I won't rule out significant turnout rate from rural American for MI7, Oppenheimer and Barbie.      

[WorkingonaName]

MI should clean up internationally 

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

I notice that GOTG3 was also the last major release to have a significantly higher OS:DOM ratio, with TLM and Spiderverse underperforming relative to their DOM gross overseas. Is it as simple as a movie which appeals more to caucasian audiences domestically will tend to have better overseas numbers?

 

Don't wanna open a can of worms regarding race, hopefully people can  discuss this with an objective numbers-based approach.

Generally speaking, yes. Outside of Dwayne Johnson and Will Smith vehicles, Bohemian Rhapsody, and a few Disney titles like Coco and Encanto, though I'm sure I'm missing a few others, movies that typically have non-white actors skew more domestic. Now to be fair, a lot of it can be attributed to genre (comedies typically don't travel well overseas, so Madea is out, dramas like The Help don't translate all that well to people outside America), and overseas box office is a lot more swayed on starpower. Still, it is a fairly consistent problem. Even Fast and Furious, which people love to use as an example of a proudly diverse franchise that people love overseas, is frankly boosted by the fact that Vin Diesel is the star and not Tyrese.

 

So why exactly do movies starring non-white actors not do well? That's a can of worms that you can decide for yourself (and probably keep to yourself, because whatever you say will start a fight). But honestly, we should all just want the best actors for the part. We all like movies and want to enjoy them first and foremost. And if it requires a non-white actor for the job, then that's what we should champion. And frankly, it's super important to normalize POC actors as leads and give better opportunities to everybody, even if you may not make as much money as you would have with a white guy.

[Eric Prime]

15 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

That's TLM. SV had the biggest Latino/Hispanic share of all its audience share from what I remember.

 

 

My dude, he's literally citing this weekend's Deadline article.

 

https://deadline.com/2023/06/box-office-transformers-rise-of-the-beasts-spider-man-spiderverse-1235412771/

[Starphanluke]

Do we have any idea what the International weekend for Transformers minus China is looking like? We know China is headed for 35-40m ish, Domestic 55m+, but what about the rest? Is another 30m in the other markets doable?.

Edit: found the answer in another thread.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Starphanluke

[KP1025]

16 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

That's TLM. SV had the biggest Latino/Hispanic share of all its audience share from what I remember.

 

 

Surprisingly, Mario had the highest Latino/Hispanic share recently at 41%. ATSV had 34%.

[M37]

22 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

I notice that GOTG3 was also the last major release to have a significantly higher OS:DOM ratio, with TLM and Spiderverse underperforming relative to their DOM gross overseas. Is it as simple as a movie which appeals more to caucasian audiences domestically will tend to have better overseas numbers?

 

Don't wanna open a can of worms regarding race, hopefully people can  discuss this with an objective numbers-based approach.

From a top line perspective- in that I really don’t follow WW closely - would seem that the White US audience generally translates well to Europe and Asia, Hispanic/Latino in Latin America, and Black is mostly US centric 

 

The goal is be something like Mario or Avatar that plays well with everyone/everywhere 

 

25 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

White people hate movies now I guess lmao

I had typed up and then deleted a similar comment 😂

[titanic2187]

White turnout rate was disproportional lower I believe also has something to do their age in general. White has the highest median age in USA at 44, compared to Latino(30) and Black(33) as of 2021. White is the oldest cohort in the country and we all know the general trend is that older people going less for the movie for whatever reason, including those that were frequent moviegoers when they were young.  

[WorkingonaName]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

White turnout rate was disproportional lower I believe also has something to do their age in general. White has the highest median age in USA at 44, compared to Latino(30) and Black(33) as of 2021. White is the oldest cohort in the country and we all know the general trend is that older people going less for the movie for whatever reason, including those that were frequent moviegoers when they were young.  

Hollywood needs more dad movies to save the box office.

[emoviefan]

Yeah we need more Dad movies instead we are getting Gen Z and Y friendly movies in this next month like Indy, MI and Oppenheimer. 

[M37]

23 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

White turnout rate was disproportional lower I believe also has something to do their age in general. White has the highest median age in USA at 44, compared to Latino(30) and Black(33) as of 2021. White is the oldest cohort in the country and we all know the general trend is that older people going less for the movie for whatever reason, including those that were frequent moviegoers when they were young.  

Oh, it always dips lower than overall population breakdown because movie audience skews more to younger ages and metro areas generally

 

It’s just unusual to have this many big releases in a row with that kind of diversity profile. Also the first time in maybe ever (?) that’s we’re going to have 5 $50M plus OWs in a row

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

Oh, it always dips lower than overall population breakdown because movie audience skews more to younger ages and metro areas generally

 

It’s just unusual to have this many big releases in a row with that kind of diversity profile. Also the first time in maybe ever (?) that’s we’re going to have 5 $50M plus OWs in a row

 

We were discussing last week that it could be a sampling bias...that's it's possible that the metros they are surveying have gone more diverse since Covid (like NYC), so if you sampled the same 5 cities pre and post Covid, you'd now be sampling fewer Caucasians by default b/c they moved elsewhere - and yet, those Caucasians could still be going to movies now in their new unsampled areas (I know I've never taking a survey, so they don't sample here).

 

And yet, b/c the error would be consistent, you can still get good data on what movies are drawing who by comparing the differences.

 

That said, I don't know how they get their stats, but this seems possible to me.

[Liiviig 1998]

160-170m if it holds is a pretty decent .

 

Definitely feels like it's  going 400-500m WW depending on legs . 

[Spidey Freak]

1 hour ago, Eric Prime said:

And frankly, it's super important to normalize POC actors as leads and give better opportunities to everybody, even if you may not make as much money as you would have with a white guy.

 

See, there's no way to prove this is actually happening. TLM obviously performed better than Aladdin DOM because of Halle Bailey. We don't know how big Mermaid is as an IP internationally  but of the big Renaissance films, it was the smallest, so were some places like say China all that crazy about Ariel in the first place, even if she were played by a white actress? Ironically Will Smith was the reason for Aladdin's OS overperformance.

 

If the Spider-Verse films hadn't starred Miles, they'd just be viewed as amusing little also-rans like The Lego Batman movie that came out not long after the Nolan Bat trilogy wrapped.

[Willowra]

18 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

160-170m if it holds is a pretty decent .

 

Definitely feels like it's  going 400-500m WW depending on legs . 

This would be 4th blockbuster this year to loss money after Shazam2, D&D and FastX.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Willowra