Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3

[MightyDargon]

I maintain that although franchises are very valuable, most people did not have another Indy movie on their request list after Crystal Skull.

 

Also 55-65 (what Jat claims) is roughly within the range of what I predicted.

Edited June 30, 2023 by MightyDargon

[YM!]

19 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

I think you're overestimating Trolls 3, the first film wasn't exactly a huge hit. 

 

 

 

Unless you’re Gillman (which Comcast send to die to the point where a 14-year-old did a better job at marketing it on Twitter), Comcast knows how to market animation, especially sequels. Though the second being DTV is a factor think Trolls will likely have an effective enough campaign, it’s not good for either when another 100m domestic animation opens five days before yours and the fact of the past November Disney’s being on the plus at the same time. Disney needs to pull all the stops for Wish marketing, sell the story and music, maybe a few EA screenings the week before to build family WOM, rave reviews. It’s possible especially considering how loved the Frozen films are but not something I feel confident betting on currently.

[FunkMiller]

41 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

They're not going to stop making high budget films and neither will other studios. That's simply unrealistic especially considering Avatar made over $2bn and they have some of the biggest films of all time. Like or lump it, spectacle sells. 

 

Oh, they're never going to leave behind the big tentpole movie completely... but maybe they'll lean on them a bit less. And we'll hopefully start to get a few more mid-budget movies that push creativity a little more, and have a decent return on them. A more healthy mixture is what's needed, and if it requires movies like The Flash and Dial Of Destiny to flop, then so be it.

[YM!]

I’ll reiterate my point in case it wasn’t obvious. Disney being in a bad period doesn’t mean the brand is permanently doomed as the studio has crawled out of worse but the bad period is still a bad period. There’s still things it can do to course correct this year with its last few tentpoles and next, but it’s fair to have skepticism on some of the products.

[Jonwo]

5 minutes ago, YM! said:

I’ll reiterate my point in case it wasn’t obvious. Disney being in a bad period doesn’t mean the brand is permanently doomed as the studio has crawled out of worse but the bad period is still a bad period. There’s still things it can do to course correct this year with its last few tentpoles and next, but it’s fair to have skepticism on some of the products.

Anyone who thinks Disney is doomed as a company clearly doesn't realise how much revenue they make outside of films. The parks alone make a ton of money. This is why the idea they'll sell assets has no basis in reality. 

 

 

[toutvabien]

7 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Indiana Jones has already had two movies that served as conclusions to the franchise. Asking audiences to come back for a third one is a stretch.

Toy Story 5 is doomed

[Brainbug]

Were witnessing the slow death of cinema.

 

This is it. This is the end.

 

All is lost. Abandon all hope. Its over.

 

Death is the only thing thats certain now for all movies.

[FunkMiller]

31 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Were witnessing the slow death of cinema.

 

This is it. This is the end.

 

All is lost. Abandon all hope. Its over.

 

Death is the only thing thats certain now for all movies.

 

I think it's just best to assume that because Disney aren't doing well this year it marks the end of human civilisation as we know it. Wouldn't want to be caught out.

[TwoMisfits]

In defense of MI 7s preview tracking...

 

1. It moved its opening date very late, so a "Wednesday" opening vs the planned Friday opening

2. Then, it set previews for Sunday night (Walmart), Monday night (EA), and Tuesday (normal)

3. And that Tuesday is the 1st cheap Tuesday of July, with most places skipping July 4

4. And it has a TMobile $5 ticket deal coming out that Tuesday

 

Almost every tracker said this is gonna be hard to track...and it's hard to compare a Tuesday non-holiday preview to a Thursday one to know how the overall weekend will go.

 

So, when you add the 3 nights of previews, maybe MI stays around $7M...or maybe it doesn't.  But I think everyone in the tracking thread would say don't count on their numbers as confidently for MI as the other summer blockbusters...

[Jonwo]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

In defense of MI 7s preview tracking...

 

1. It moved its opening date very late, so a "Wednesday" opening vs the planned Friday opening

2. Then, it set previews for Sunday night (Walmart), Monday night (EA), and Tuesday (normal)

3. And that Tuesday is the 1st cheap Tuesday of July, with most places skipping July 4

4. And it has a TMobile $5 ticket deal coming out that Tuesday

 

Almost every tracker said this is gonna be hard to track...and it's hard to compare a Tuesday non-holiday preview to a Thursday one to know how the overall weekend will go.

 

So, when you add the 3 nights of previews, maybe MI stays around $7M...or maybe it doesn't.  But I think everyone in the tracking thread would say don't count on their numbers as confidently for MI as the other summer blockbusters...

Mission Impossible kept pushing forward its release date everywhere that nobody can keep up, I understand Paramount want to maximise revenue but have a date and stick to it. 

[Issac Newton]

 

1 Milliar Club = 1 Billion Club 

[John Marston]

the bad will not only from Crystal Skull but recent Lucasfilm movies made even hardcore fans wary, and nothing about the marketing and reactions made them feel like they were wrong to feel that way

Edited June 30, 2023 by John Marston

[screambaby]

7 minutes ago, John Marston said:

iti s obvious what has happened. The bad will not only from Crystal Skull but recent Lucasfilm movies made even hardcore fans wary, and nothing about the marketing and reactions made them feel like they were wrong to feel that way

I actually prefer that to 'omg Harrison is old!'

 

Or 'indy isn't iconic (enough)

 

 

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by screambaby

[M37]

51 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

1. It moved its opening date very late, so a "Wednesday" opening vs the planned Friday opening

Agree with your thoughts generally about difficulty, but Mario had a late move to Wed opening and did just fine before the weekend 

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, M37 said:

Agree with your thoughts generally about difficulty, but Mario had a late move to Wed opening and did just fine before the weekend 

 

Mario was in a wide open period, moved to hit both the huge kid holiday breaks, skewed very young, (and yet still kept growing into the weekend)...and it did have enormously higher Friday, Saturday, and even Sunday box office vs its opening Wednesday.  In fact, its Thursday made people start to doubt the weekend til Friday came in...

 

MI 7 has no holiday, no kid skew, and no real reason to be a Wednesday open EXCEPT to get the extra PLF time in, which I think will be priceless for it.  That said, even if we get a "disappointing" Wednesday and Thursday, we could still get a Mario-like Friday/Saturday...

 

PS - I'm waiting for MI7 on Monday to announce surprise sneaks for next Saturday in IMAX, too, after this Indy open b/c theaters will be begging...

Edited June 30, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Deathlife]

This thread is weird. I thought I saw a post that compared TLM to BP or something because they have black leads? It reminds me of how Grace Randolph remembered "Roots" when BP came out too. I guess all Disney blockbusters with black leads have to be compared with BP for whatever reason. I'm already preparing for TLM comparisons to War Machine when that one comes out.

 

Anyway, all studios seem to be having a tough time this summer, Disney in particular might need to re-think their film release strategy in the future. Cramming all their movies together in a single summer in some "big dick" move didn't really make much sense. Some Disney remakes were released pre-summer and that really helped those movies. Mario made as much as it did because it had little to no competition when it opened.

 

Ironically, as much as folks are jumping all over Disney, their movies have been some of leggiest at the domestic box office this summer (even Elemental with its very low opening is holding quite well), that suggests the people that actually saw the movies actually liked them. At this point, that's all they and other studios can do- put out movies that people like and re-build the goodwill. It's going to be a little tough because viewing patterns have changed, with streaming ramped up (Disney and WB in particular went all in on the streaming deals) and ticket prices being super high (in my part of Canada, going to see a film with the family on premium screens can cost over a $100), movies are going to have to feel like events again. I mean, movies are still going to streaming super fast (like Fast X..lol), so there has to be incentive to rush out to see them. Hollywood isn't going to abandon big budget blockbusters because there's no real reason to yet, the biggest movies post-pandemic have been sequels, nostalgia bait and franchises directed towards kids and families. There's literally nothing coming close to them so they're not going anywhere.

 

Regarding Indy 5, the movie is coming out 15 years after the last movie and that wasn't particularly well received. Not to mention without Spielberg and Lucas's involvement it's just not the same. An 80-year old Indiana Jones isn't something that will have generational appeal (as big as Indiana Jones is, it didn't have a prequel trilogy or Clone Wars to bridge generations) and the style of film making that made the original movies special isn't really seen much again. That gritty, practical feel has been replaced by digital filming and a glossy sheen due to the use of CG (it's not a bad thing but it makes the new movies look and feel different). I hate to repeat the cliche but this is a case of a film being somewhat unnecessary. I haven't seen the film yet but I will see it and judge for myself, I'm not convinced it's a bad movie. I also want to note that the absolute hysteria around Phoebe Waller-Bridge being in the movie has been over the top. We saw something similar with Mutt in the previous movie but what we are seeing now is so weird and out of control. Seriously, what has she done to warrant the level of vitriol directed towards her? We saw the same thing with last James Bond movie and people are still on Brie Larson years after Captain Marvel. This stuff is just out of control.

 

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by Deathlife

[John Marston]

Verified score for Diarrhea of Destiny already drops to 88%

[MightyDargon]

16 minutes ago, Deathlife said:

This thread is weird. I thought I saw a post that compared TLM to BP or something because they have black leads? It reminds me of how Grace Randolph remembered "Roots" when BP came out too. I guess all Disney blockbusters with black leads have to be compared with BP for whatever reason. I'm already preparing for TLM comparisons to War Machine when that one comes out.

 

Anyway, all studios seem to be having a tough time this summer, Disney in particular might need to re-think their film release strategy in the future. Cramming all their movies together in a single summer in some "big dick" move didn't really make much sense. Some Disney remakes were released pre-summer and that really helped those movies. Mario made as much as it did because it had little to no competition when it opened.

 

Ironically, as much as folks are jumping all over Disney, their movies have been some of leggiest at the domestic box office this summer (even Elemental with its very low opening is holding quite well), that suggests the people that actually saw the movies actually liked them. At this point, that's all they and other studios can do- put out movies that people like and re-build the goodwill. It's going to be a little tough because viewing patterns have changed, with streaming ramped up (Disney and WB in particular went all in on the streaming deals) and ticket prices being super high (in my part of Canada, going to see a film with the family on premium screens can cost over a $100), movies are going to have to feel like events again. I mean, movies are still going to streaming super fast (like Fast X..lol), so there has to be incentive to rush out to see them. Hollywood isn't going to abandon big budget blockbusters because there's no real reason to yet, the biggest movies post-pandemic have been sequels, nostalgia bait and franchises directed towards kids and families. There's literally nothing coming close to them so they're not going anywhere.

 

Regarding Indy 5, the movie is coming out 15 years after the last movie and that wasn't particularly well received. Not to mention without Spielberg and Lucas's involvement it's just not the same. An 80-year old Indiana Jones isn't something that will have generational appeal (as big as Indiana Jones is, it didn't have a prequel trilogy or Clone Wars to bridge generations) and the style of film making that made the original movies special isn't really seen much again. That gritty, practical feel has been replaced by digital filming and a glossy sheen due to the use of CG (it's not a bad thing but it makes the new movies look and feel different). I hate to repeat the cliche but this is a case of a film being somewhat unnecessary. I haven't seen the film yet but I will see it and judge for myself, I'm not convinced it's a bad movie. I also want to note that the absolute hysteria around Phoebe Waller-Bridge being in the movie has been over the top. We saw something similar with Mutt in the previous movie but what we are seeing now is so weird and out of control. Seriously, what has she done to warrant the level of vitriol directed towards her? We saw the same thing with last James Bond movie and people are still on Brie Larson years after Captain Marvel. This stuff is just out of control.

 

 

I haven't heard that much criticism of Phoebe. Mostly what I hear is "DAMN Ford looks old". 

Also Mario was popular because it was Mario, not lack of competition.

Edited June 30, 2023 by MightyDargon

[Human]

I was 12 when Indy 4 came out, and that was my introduction, and I loved it.  Hearing about the stuff they did to the stuff introduced there leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

[interiorgatordecorator]

12 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Yeah I mean even on the relative low end Indy will make like 40-50 million more domestically than the Flash, which was billed for years as the movie to end all superhero movies that you would get character assasinated online if you doubted. 

 

really?

pretty sure we only began hearing about this early 2023 when Gunn said it and some test-screenings occurred