The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

 

(well maybe not theater owners who massively overbooked tonight, but *I* certainly did)

((post incoming in about 10)

I mean the film is #1 tonight and they pulled $3M outta nowhere. So not really a mistake right.

[Bob Train]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

(well maybe not theater owners who massively overbooked tonight, but *I* certainly did)

((post incoming in about 10)

Not like there is anything else to play tonight, for theaters. The only movie close to $1m today is Exorcist, which pulled a measly $390 PTA yesterday. 

[tonytr87]

3 hours ago, Shawn said:

I don't know if I'd agree $60m is low.

 

That said, the range doesn't include the upper-upper-most band of what I think could happen... but I also think we have to be careful setting expectations too high, too soon. There are a lot of young FNAF fans (pre-teens and teens are the primary fan base), which means a lot of tickets at "bargain" prices compared to a lot of the PG-13 and R films FNAF is being compared to.

 

My other headache is that exhibitors didn't start adding PLF until very recently (that alone should help pump up the ATP), and that -- like you alluded to -- the hybrid release raises concerns for walk-ups for a movie that's already potentially very fan-driven. That's especially if those late embargo reviews go the way of something negative like Exorcist: Believer instead of a more favorable Blumhouse audience movie (which I think is a bit of a factor in strong pre-sales as Blum is also a brand unto himself/itself).

 

I'm just never a fan of an embargo going up hours before start time for a movie that doesn't need to worry about spoilers and is also going to be available to watch at home for (basically) free. That seems like a red flag, but there's also a possibility this kind of movie is review proof on Halloween weekend.

 

TL;DR -- Internally, I'm with you and everyone thinking it's possible this could blow up even more... but looking at the average of all models, I think the current range is in a good spot based on all variables.

 

The good news is Universal isn't advertising that Peacock release at all. I was just watching something on the app and an ad for the movie came up. No mention at all that it was going to be on Peacock. Just "in theaters (insert date)"

[TheFlatLannister]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yesterday evening and today morning it looked like perhaps THU will add up to big sum but sales since today morning seems soft. Let's see how walkups go but probably nothing much.

If this continues for weekend as well, we may see something like $80-90M weekend.

 

THU - 2177/34329 (130 showings)

As of 5PM. Final could be 3K+, that should lead to something like $3M I guess.

so something like 4+30+31+20 maybe? dang that's a far-cry from the $200M+ talk a few weeks ago

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area PREMIERE NIGHT

(Thr Prev) Seat Report:  PREMIERE (THR PREV) MID-DAY REPORT [12:00pm-12:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	155	18378	19180	802	4.18%

 

 

Total Net Showings Removed Since Last Night	1
Total Net Seats Removed Since Last Night	16
Total Net Seats Sold Since Last Night	321

NOTE:  One of the local theaters, understandably perhaps, set a couple of 2pm showtimes for today last night, which were subsequently yanked this morning.

 

TET Thru (Mid-Day) = 0.08621x TET Fri (T-2) [????m] (802/9303)

---

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps:  [USE MOSTLY FOR PACE PURPOSES ONLY!!!! - ***MOSTLY*** IGNORE THE COMPS]

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	3.04		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	2.85%		1.52m	2.20m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	4.12		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	3.80%		1.48m	2.15m
Thor4 [11:30-12:25]	5.38		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	4.73%		1.56m	2.26m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	5.44		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	4.77%		1.52m	2.21m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	8.54		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	7.66%		1.49m	2.17m
GOTG [11:30-12:20]	8.72		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	7.46%		1.53m	2.21m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

YET MORE T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps: [AGAIN USE MOSTLY FOR PACE PURPOSES!!!]

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
Bats [11:30-12:35]	7.65		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	6.82%		1.65m	2.40m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	8.45		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	7.31%		1.52m	2.21m
BA [11:35-12:25]	22.15		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	17.85%		1.68m	2.44m
Ava 2[11:30-12:15]	10.14		666	7907		0/310	27128/35035	22.57%		8986	8.92%		1.72m	2.50m
Shaz2[11:45-12:10]	64.37		177	1246		0/165	21921/23167	5.38%		1663	48.23%		2.19m	3.17m
TLM [11:40-12:15]	14.31		629	5603		0/225	23553/29156	19.22%		6561	12.22%		1.47m	2.14m
AtSV[11:40-12:15]	9.94		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	8.23%		1.72m	2.50m
RotB[11:40-12:10]	20.46		487	3919		0/202	21893/25812	15.18%		4973	16.13%		1.80m	2.61m
Barb [11:30-12:40]	7.58		1130	10583		3/271	19233/29816	35.49%		12077	6.64%		1.69m	2.45m
Oppy[12:15-12:25]	19.69		367	4074		2/80	6785/10859	37.52%		4621	17.36%		2.07m	3.00m
Barbn[11:30-12:10]	5.47		1497	14657		5/351	26018/40675	36.03%		16698	4.80%		1.79m	2.60m

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     124/5770  [2.15% sold]

 

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area PREMIERE NIGHT

(Thr Prev) Seat Report:  PREMIERE (THR PREV) FINAL REPORT [5:10pm-5:35pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	18105	19122	1017	5.32%

 

Total Showings Removed Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Removed Since Last Mid-Day	58
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	215

 

TET Thru (Mid-Day) = 0.10932x TET Fri (T-2) [????m] (1017/9303)

---

T-0 FINAL: 

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH [3:00-4:30]	3.61		1758	28183		4/395	15229/43412	64.92%		28183	3.61%		1.80m	2.62m
MoM [3:30-4:35]	4.82		1656	21117		0/409	25412/46529	45.38%		21117	4.82%		1.73m	2.51m
Thor4 [3:45-4:35]	6.00		2056	16962		0/320	23111/40073	42.33%		16962	6.00%		1.74m	2.52m
BP2 [3:45-4:35]	6.05		2053	16800		2/376	26426/43216	38.87%		16800	6.05%		1.70m	2.46m
AM3 [3:45-4:30]	9.71		1083	10475		0/307	26899/37374	28.03%		10475	9.71%		1.70m	2.46m
GOTG [3:45-4:30]	9.46		1551	10750		0/347	31169/41919	25.64%		10750	9.46%		1.66m	2.40m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

YET MORE T-0 FINAL Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
Bats [3:00-4:30]	8.65		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	8.65%		1.87m	2.71m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	9.27		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	9.27%		1.67m	2.42m
BA [3:50-4:30]	22.63		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	22.63%		1.72m	2.49m
Ava2 [3:50-4:25]	11.32		1079	8986		0/310	26049/35035	25.65%		8986	11.32%		1.92m	2.79m
Shaz2 [3:55-4:15]	61.15		417	1663		0/166	21658/23321	7.13%		1663	61.15%		2.08m	3.01m
TLM [3:50-4:15]	15.50		958	6561		0/235	23202/29763	22.04%		6561	15.50%		1.60m	2.32m
AtSV [3:50-4:20]	10.44		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	10.44%		1.81m	2.63m
RotB [3:50-4:15]	20.45		1054	4973		0/202	20839/25812	19.27%		4973	20.45%		1.80m	2.61m
Barb [3:50-4:30]	8.42		1494	12077		4/274	17904/29981	40.28%		12077	8.42%		1.88m	2.72m
Oppy[4:30-4:40]	22.01		547	4621		2/80	6238/10859	42.55%		4621	22.01%		2.31m	3.35m
Barbn[3:50-4:40]	6.09		2041	16698		6/354	24142/40840	40.89%		16698	6.09%		2.00m	2.90m

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     197/5770  [3.41% sold]

 

===

 

Alright, there is *NO WAY* to sugar coat this.  There are waaaaaaaaaaaay too many showtimes.  Some of them have a handful of tickets sold, but there are a ton of zed sales out there.  Now I ain't never been in the theater biz, so that's likely normal for many showings, but at least have variety. 

 

And we're not talking about many of the smaller auditoriums, either (though we are in some cases).

 

Don't get me wrong, brisk business at the PLF screens in the 6pm/7pm corroridor as well as a handful/couple per-theater of the 6pm/7pm showtimes.  But I tend to think they could have cut back about 80% of the showtimes tonight and sold nearly the same amount of tickets.

 

Still, being PLF heavy (43.85% of all sales according to my sheet — which is very high for a final number) is gonna juice the ATP even higher, as @Shawn suspected.  So that 145% adj ad-hoc I have for previews is probably too low.  Perhaps way too low.

 

If I boost it to 155% I get a range of comps to 2.6m to 3.6m.  Sounds closer.  But gonna presume it's even more PLF heavy in the expensive parts of the country.

 

As an PURE ASS PULL GUESSTIMATE:  3.3m +/- .5m

(more or less centered on Oppenheimer)

 

I mean, really, no idea for the ATP adj to make. None whatsoever. Could be a flat 3m.  Could be 2.5m.  Nothing between 2m and 4m would surprise me.

 

So, no, absolutely no guarantee on Sacto Dark Magic here.

 

(will be curious as to what it turns out to be, mind)

 

[Inceptionzq]

17 minutes ago, Derpity said:

 

Drafthouse seems like the worst possible movie theater to watch this. Are they relaxing any policies about cell phones or talking?

Haven't seen anything specific about cell phones, but they're allowing people to sing, dance, cheer, talk, etc. And also loosening the age policies

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Not like there is anything else to play tonight, for theaters. The only movie close to $1m today is Exorcist, which pulled a measly $390 PTA yesterday. 

 

It's not that they took away from one particular movie though, but a variety of them.  Like, as I just said in my post, they could have concentrated these showtimes into many fewer showings, gotten nearly the same amount of tickets and whatever others out there for their other films.

 

Either way, I doubt it's anywhere close to what they might have been hoping for.

 

(and, besides, it was more directed at me as I said in my parenthetical 😛)

[XXR & Friends]

I never imagined Porthos would be so anti-theater and Taylor Swift 

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I mean the film is #1 tonight and they pulled $3M outta nowhere. So not really a mistake right.

 

17 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Not like there is anything else to play tonight, for theaters. The only movie close to $1m today is Exorcist, which pulled a measly $390 PTA yesterday. 

 

Thinking a bit more on this how much of the increased ATP share will theater owners get?  Especially as it was at the last moment so who knows about broken contracts with the other films.

 

Now as I implied in my parenthetical, it was mostly directed at myself  for wasting the time on it. 

 

But I gotta tell ya, there are a looooooooot of no sale auditoriums.  And the foot traffic that buys all the popcorn and drinks and whatnot? That's far closer to a 1.8m movie.

 

Which again ain't nothing.  But my overall point is that they didn't just take screens from Exorcist, but a variety of films to make room for this at the last second.

 

====

 

Now maybe it is a wash in the end. But I note it was nowhere near that 1500-1600 mooted total seat number that @M37 was thinking about earlier in the day.

 

Where I do think M37 is right is that if Taylor Swift's crew had announced this last week, it could have made all the difference in the world.  Or at least given it more of a chance.

 

But here, with all of the last second scheduling chaos?  Wonder if it was really worth it for the theater owners.  Sure that one PLF screen that saw increased biz is really good (for that theaters that have a PLF screen). Plus the other biz that I saw in a smattering of showtimes.

 

But was that worth everything else?  All the hassle and headaches at the very last second?  Including dealing with irate Swifties demanding refunds and exchanges?

 

MAYBE!  I really don't know.

 

What I do know is that it wasn't all that worth it to me.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

I never imagined Porthos would be so anti-theater and Taylor Swift 

 

Live look at me toward Swift's team (as I'm sure Taylor Swift herself is a sweetheart ❤️) who handled all of this:

 

[Giorno]

Swifties who lurk this board are gonna find out who porthos is and be outside house by tommorow morning 

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Giorno said:

Swifties who lurk this board are gonna find out who porthos is and be outside house by tommorow morning 

 

Yeah... but will they agree with me or not about all of the chaos of changing up the schedule at the last moment not being worth it! 

 

I'M IN YOUR CORNER HERE, SWIFTIES!!! I'M A MAN OF THE PEOPLE HERE, FIGHTING FOR *YOU*!!!!

 

(prob should cut this down soon lest we drift outside of tracking discussion )

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/8/2023 at 10:14 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	60	46	383	9853	3.89

 

Comps:

0.25x Oppenheimer: $2.67 Million

0.56x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $3.95 Million

0.44x Indiana Jones 5: $3.19 Million

 

Still mostly keeping track with comps, so not too apprehensive, but the lack of review bump in the final week could be an issue. Adding Haunting in Venice and Big Fat Greek Wedding to round out my comps on Thursday.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	39	120	624	4827	12.93

 

No Marcus showtimes yet for this one, as well as a couple of other local chains. 

 

Comps (bad, baaaaaaaad ones, best I can do for now tbh. Trying to get a sense of how sales do compared to a variety of different flicks/types of movies):

4.99x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $15.47 Million

1.42x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $9.95 Million

0.7x Barbie (Just Thursday): $14.9 Million

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-53):

Day: T-53	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	41	47	832	7320	11.37

 

Tracking T-Swizzle daily starting tomorrow!

 

21 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-29, day 2, count taken 10:30-11 PM CST):

Day: T-29	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	103	31	490	17152	2.86

 

Tomorrow I will have an Oppy comp, a bit useless right away but it should help in seeing growth for this. While I don't have comps for this, only 31 tix sold in day 2 seems pretty terrible.

 

Minneapolis- St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	70	154	537	10660	5.04

 

Comps:

0.25x Oppenheimer: $2.67 Million

0.6x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $4.18 Million

0.56x Indiana Jones 5: $4.03 Million

 

Never mind about Haunting in Venice or Big Fat Greek Wedding lol, this is way exceeding that. Haunting in Venice window was much shorter, so I will probably add that on Sunday, but BFGW3 is not suitable here. Either way, this is a great update; I was pessimistic going into today because of all the noise going into Taylor and the Marvels, but this is keeping pace with Oppy (which was going strong with Barbenheimer at this point), and improving over MI7 and Indy.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	57	194	818	8076	10.13

 

Comps:

5.11x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $15.8 Million

1.4x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $9.77 Million

0.65x Barbie (Just Thursday): $13.8 Million

 

The Marvels (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	103	20	510	17152	2.97

 

Comp:

0.78x Oppenheimer: $8.16 Million

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-49):

Day: T-49	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	43	26	858	7584	11.31

 

The next month or so will look pretty boring for this I imagine, but I can't wait for the eventual Taylor appearance at the premiere and see what kind of boost that leads to lol.

[M37]

23 minutes ago, Porthos said:

But here, with all of the last second scheduling chaos?  Wonder if it was really worth it for the theater owners.  Sure that one PLF screen that saw increased biz is really good (for that theaters that have a PLF screen). Plus the other biz that I saw in a smattering of showtimes.

In a word: no - their reaction mirrored ours pretty much 

(Also that explains how Cinemark had shows up so quickly last night, ahead of AMC)

[abracadabra1998]

Just now, M37 said:

In a word: no - their reaction mirrored ours pretty much 

(Also that explains how Cinemark had shows up so quickly last night, ahead of AMC)

 

Yeah, I wouldn't be happy either if I was in charge of deciding sets and showtimes. A lot of showings tomorrow too just look like: 1 at 2 PM, 1 at 4 PM (sometimes one or two more, sometimes even just 1 between 2 and 6), and then a boatload after 6. Announcing this a week earlier would have made for much more consistent sets I imagine

[Bob Train]

Just now, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Yeah, I wouldn't be happy either if I was in charge of deciding sets and showtimes. A lot of showings tomorrow too just look like: 1 at 2 PM, 1 at 4 PM (sometimes one or two more, sometimes even just 1 between 2 and 6), and then a boatload after 6. Announcing this a week earlier would have made for much more consistent sets I imagine

They probably didn't know it was trending to under $100m until a few days ago. That was probably the motive in doing it, to push it over $100m. Let's see if it works.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

In a word: no - their reaction mirrored ours pretty much 

(Also that explains how Cinemark had shows up so quickly last night, ahead of AMC)

 

Keeping it to tracking, It's actually interesting that the sales last night (thanks to Taylor Swift's social media blasts) were about the same as all day sales as of 5:30pm:

 

Sales yesterday immediately after announcement: 481

Sales from 11pm yesterday - 5:30pm today:           536

 

That's.... interesting, as I said.  Among other words.

 

Now there will certainly still be sales into the night locally (no, I ain't checking to see how many).  But I think it underscores just how driven this was by engagement with Taylor Swift's own promotion and news blasts.

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Porthos

[M37]

6 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

They probably didn't know it was trending to under $100m until a few days ago. That was probably the motive in doing it, to push it over $100m. Let's see if it works.

Looks like we're getting maybe $3M from these added shows, maybe a couple million more from the new Friday afternoon shows. But ...

 

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Keeping it to tracking, It's actually interesting that the sales last night (thanks to Taylor Swift's social media blasts) were about the same as all day sales as of 5:30pm:

 

Sales yesterday:                                                481

Sales from 11pm yesterday - 5:30pm today:  536

 

That's.... interesting, as I said.  Among other words.

 

Now there will certainly still be sales into the night locally (no, I ain't checking to see how many).  But I think it underscores just how driven this was my engagement with Taylor Swift's own promotion and news blasts.

Still very low walk-up rate, given the lack of time for presales, and with capacity not a constraint at all. I'm still not convinced ERAS manages to break $100M, nor will I be shocked if Joker's October OW record survives* the Swifties Rush

(*At least for another 2 weeks ...)

[TwoMisfits]

So to get back to another interesting thing for overall tracking for Marvels...

 

This is the 1st MCU movie ever to not get at least 2 weeks of prebookable shows at my local Cinemarks.  Right now, my Cinemarks are only providing show sets through Sunday Nov 19 (with that 2nd weekend a single screen).  So, no one can even theoretically buy Thanksgiving for this movie as the "family" movie.  In fact, that's my entire area b/c Atom will only allow buys through Nov 22, no matter what theater you pick in the 50 miles around me.

[rehpyc]

Been quite some time since last posting, really just lurking here and there at times, due to dealing with some personal life issues. Weekend ATP for TET is roughly 20.20 - 20.30 at MTC3. I presume MTC1 is a bit higher, with multiple PLF offerings and having the upper hand with early presales. With very minimal review, looking toward 2.5M for tonight.