The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Barbie T-3, Milton, ON

 

Sales at 242, which is only a 13% increase over yesterday, which is the lowest daily increase of the past week. Auditorium isn't at capacity, so, it's not that. Not sure if it's an anomaly, or calm before the storm, with full review embargo coming and EA shows tomorrow.

 

ATSV jumped huge at same point of time, so it lost a lot against that comp.

 

11.00x of TLM for $113.3M

1.308x of ATSV for $22.7M

1.582x of MI7 for $11.1M

 

Barbie T-2, Milton, ON

 

Back to a steady 20% jump to 290. I'd like to have seen higher, but, with full weekend showtimes added, people would have had the option to pick near empty Friday or Saturday showings last night instead.

 

Sales are now ahead of final GOTG3 numbers.

 

11.154x of TLM for $114.9M

1.368x of ATSV for $23.7M

1.480x of MI7 for $10.4M

 

I should restate the reasons for my comps.

 

TLM is on there as the only female blockbuster, even though it crashed and burned locally. It had strong walk ups though, so that number should look different by the end.

 

MI7 is there because it's the highest selling comp I have. It also almost doubled on walk ups. It overindexed here, so the dollar value is fairly meaningless, but I want to see if it can stay ahead in terms of raw admissions.

 

ATSV is there because it's the one that Barbie has probably followed the closest. But, it lagged initially and now outperforming. It's walk ups were muted, partly by capacity.

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

T-3 Oppenheimer, Milton, ON

 

So, not sure what's happening with Oppenheimer, but it's on fire at my local theatre. Up 68% to get to 134 tickets sold. It's now surpassed final sales for films liks John Wick and Flash, and just shy of Fast X final. All films I would have held as closest comps.

 

Oppenheimer isn't really available for pre-sales for my theatre. It only has showtimes for Thursday, so maybe it's pushed people to get seats for the only showtimes available. Also, every Dbox seat is sold for the early show, and I can't really understand the appeal of watching a three hour historical drama in a moving seat.

 

2.577x of Fast X for $19.3M

0.724x of ATSV for $12.6M

2.913x of Flash for $28.3M

0.554x of Barbie for ???

 

 

 

 

T-2 Oppenheimer, Milton, ON

 

Another strong day, just not supercharged like yesterday. Sales up 24% to 166.

 

It's very concentrated towards to plf screen, which isn't a surprise.

 

Notable, in the area, as new showtimes were announced into next week, people were literally waiting to pounce on them for the IMAX 70mm screenings. I was on a Cineplex subreddit, and people were waiting for updates and any new showing in that format was selling well right away.

 

2.635x of Fast X for $19.8M

0.783x of ATSV for $13.6M

3.074x of Flash for $29.8M

0.572x of Barbie for ???

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

There's absolutely risk. The studio needs $400 million worldwide to break even, and it could easily come up well short of that number. They need people to show up after opening weekend. Very dark subject and very long runtime. If it opens to $50M and potentially ends up with a 2.8 multiplier, that's a $140M domestic total. Tack on similar performance overseas and you're at $280M worldwide. Universal would lose a lot of money in this scenario. 

Isn’t the budget on Oppenheimer only $100m? House of Gucci cost $75m and had a dark subject matter.

 

It won’t need $400m theatrical to break even on a $100m budget. 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Isn’t the budget on Oppenheimer only $100m? House of Gucci cost $75m and had a dark subject matter.

 

It won’t need $400m theatrical to break even on a $100m budget. 

 

$100M for production alone, but another $100M for marketing. They only get around 50% of the worldwide box office revenue. So they would need $400M in total box office to deliver $200M of revenue for Universal, enough money to offset their $200M of combined production & marketing cost. 

[reddevil19]

42 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

but another $100M for marketing.

Well, we don't quite know that.

Also, this seems like it will lean on DOM quite a bit compared to the usual major Nolan films, so if it gets to 200 DOM (not impossible if it opens to 70, though of course both the OW and especially legs are still very much anyone's guess, depending on how it's received by the GA), with no huge reliance on China (instead it will probably be the mature traditional markets that make up the bulk of the OS numbers) they'll need closer to 300 than 400.

 

It was a risk when Uni took it on, but they probably saw it as an investment. Right now it's looking like a profitable one both in the long run and immediate future.

Edited July 19, 2023 by reddevil19

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/13/2023 at 6:41 PM, across the Jat verse said:

Barbie MiniTC2 T-8

Early Shows - 2968/3727 (13 showings) $47,415

Previews -  4979/53439 (232 showings) $59,669
FRI - 6806/87378 (349 showings) $80,019

 

Comps

0.63x Thor 4 Previews - $18.2M

1.08x GoTG 3 Previews - $19.4M

 

2.39x TLM Previews - $24.6M

1.84x TLM FRI - $51.4M 

Insane last three days of sales. Pace second only to DSitMoM.

 

Barbie MiniTC2 T-2

 

Early Shows - 3371/3729 (13 showings) $53,803

Previews - 13392/63434 (291 showings) $158,000

FRI - 20838/128581 (566 showings) $240,438

 

Comps

0.84x Thor 4 Previews - $24.3M

1.31x GoTG 3 Previews - $23.7M

 

These are comps with ticket sales. Gross comp be lower due to lack of PLFs, take $1.5Mish lower.

 

1.36x Thor FRI - $55M

1.65x GoTG 3 FRI - $50M

 

Similarly adj for low ATP, $51M Thor, $43M GoTG 3.

[Porthos]

Alright, nothing I can do about it — both T-2's for Oppenheimer and Barbie out of Sacto is gonna have to wait 'till the morning.  I've been trying to pull numbers out of one of the busiest theaters in town for over four hours and their computers on their end are still down. Both on corp and on Fandango.

 

Normally I'd just punt that theater and be on my way.  But at T-2 and one of the busiest in town, I really can't do that.  So I'll pull the numbers first thing in the morning and post as soon as I can.  It'll be very very slightly off by having a couple of hours of morning sales, but not nearly as off as missing that theater's sales from Tue.

 

(all other numbers were pulled hours ago)

 

See y'all in a few.

[Liiviig 1998]

1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

$100M for production alone, but another $100M for marketing. They only get around 50% of the worldwide box office revenue. So they would need $400M in total box office to deliver $200M of revenue for Universal, enough money to offset their $200M of combined production & marketing cost. 

Breakeven is calculated of production budget. Assumption is ancillaries beyond is enough to cover the marketing budget In the long run.

 

How do you think TLM on a 250m production budget has broken even with just 550m box-office!!!

 

Shazam made 70m+ profit on a box office of 363m against a 100m budget minus marketing.

 

 

[M37]

On 7/16/2023 at 9:43 AM, M37 said:

Below are the highest number to total tickets sold in final week, from ZackM data (might be off by a smidge, but he can correct me)

 

Sales from T-7 to T-F for Alpha

• Batman = 208.6K (+98.2%)
• ATSV = 226.K (+222.8%)
• BPWF = 270.0K (+117.4%)
• Thor L&T = 275.3K (+111.0%)
• Strange MoM = 295.7K (+83.7%)
• NWH = 302.5K (+51.2%)

 

I mention this because Barbenheimer, even with a modest final week compared to current trajectory, has a decent shot of beating all of them, including NWH. Barbie could end up somewhere on this +200K list all by herself, similar to ATSV, starting from a lower baseline but posting a much higher growth rate and finishing in range of the big MCU films

 

As of T-7: Barbie = 129K, Oppy = 74K, combined = 203.5K

 

With that said, looking at the relative volume of sales also shows how much work is still needed for a $20M+ Barbie and/or $30M+ combined preview, and why that might be a tall ask even in light of the pace over the last week

As of the T-3 update, Barbenheimer has sold 94K+ tickets for Alpha Thursday since T-7, well on the way to +300K and total way north of 500K (maybe even 600K?).  Perhaps more notable, the combined total has moved past both BPWF and Thor L&T, with a much higher pace over that time period

[reddevil19]

This really is going to be a weekend for the ages. But obviously studios will take the wrong lesson from this and try to force idiotic pairings in the future and Mattel is gonna start production on all 20 of their ideas, including the ones that make no sense, and we'll end up with a double bill of Viewmaster and Boris: A True British Underdog Story.

[M37]

13 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-2	Oppenheimer	PLF	10	51	1,257	2,298	54.70%
		Standard	19	105	341	2,013	16.94%
	Total		29	156	1,598	4,311	37.07%
T-3	Oppenheimer (Fri)	PLF	21	157	1,887	4,763	39.62%
		Standard	29	63	358	2,917	12.27%
	Total		50	220	2,245	7,680	29.23%
T-4	Oppenheimer (Sat)	PLF	21	149	1,826	4,747	38.47%
		Standard	29	81	299	2,919	10.24%
	Total		50	230	2,125	7,666	27.72%
T-5	Oppenheimer (Sun)	PLF	21	129	1,232	4,747	25.95%
		Standard	31	39	182	3,114	5.84%
	Total		52	168	1,414	7,861	17.99%

 

 

Share of Oppy tickets sold for PLF, by day: 79%, 84%, 86%, 87%

 

Higher than the PLF + 3D share for Avatar 2 at this same checkpoint (70% ,74%, 78%, 75%)

 

On 12/13/2022 at 12:15 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Avatar 2	3D	34	148	1,123	4,252	26.41%	$15.27	$17,153.74
		PLF	22	75	1,724	4,763	36.20%	$16.02	$27,625.43
		Standard	92	239	1,217	10,979	11.08%	$12.25	$14,905.02
	Total		148	462	4,064	19,994	20.33%	$14.69	$59,684.19
T-3	Avatar 2 (Fri)	3D	48	102	1,077	5,949	18.10%	$15.46	$16,647.45
		PLF	33	232	2,120	6,822	31.08%	$16.42	$34,817.54
		Standard	67	232	1,135	8,559	13.26%	$11.82	$13,411.34
	Total		148	566	4,332	21,330	20.31%	$14.98	$64,876.33
T-4	Avatar 2 (Sat)	3D	48	98	1,127	5,949	18.94%	$14.40	$16,233.30
		PLF	33	206	2,209	6,828	32.35%	$15.65	$34,565.39
		Standard	66	138	935	8,448	11.07%	$11.01	$10,293.14
	Total		147	442	4,271	21,225	20.12%	$14.30	$61,091.83
T-5	Avatar 2 (Sun)	3D	48	48	560	5,949	9.41%	$13.80	$7,727.87
		PLF	33	109	1,382	6,822	20.26%	$15.34	$21,196.66
		Standard	65	100	651	8,345	7.80%	$10.02	$6,524.19
	Total		146	257	2,593	21,116	12.28%	$13.67	$35,448.72

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Avatar 2	N	109	362	3,163	14,889	21.24%	$15.44	$48,847.22
		Y	39	100	901	5,105	17.65%	$12.03	$10,836.97
	Total		148	462	4,064	19,994	20.33%	$14.69	$59,684.19
T-3	Avatar 2 (Fri)	N	67	398	3,278	10,138	32.33%	$16.01	$52,469.67
		Y	81	168	1,054	11,192	9.42%	$11.77	$12,406.66
	Total		148	566	4,332	21,330	20.31%	$14.98	$64,876.33
T-4	Avatar 2 (Sat)	N	67	240	2,143	10,256	20.90%	$16.80	$35,996.21
		Y	80	202	2,128	10,969	19.40%	$11.79	$25,095.62
	Total		147	442	4,271	21,225	20.12%	$14.30	$61,091.83
T-5	Avatar 2 (Sun)	N	65	91	920	9,924	9.27%	$17.49	$16,095.11
		Y	81	166	1,673	11,192	14.95%	$11.57	$19,353.61
	Total		146	257	2,593	21,116	12.28%	$13.67	$35,448.72

 

[ZackM]

13 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	252	5	16	51	10
Seats Added	29,209	1,187	2,426	6,296	1,280
Seats Sold	11,661	7,651	5,127	4,706	5,216
7/17/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	427	1,776	103,439	320,406	32.28%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	30	106	223	354
ATP	Gross
$18.52	$1,915,690

 

 

Really getting clamped by lack of screens.  Was hoping to see way more added this week.

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	354	252	5	16	51
Seats Added	38,456	29,209	1,187	2,426	6,296
Seats Sold	13,868	11,661	7,651	5,127	4,706
7/18/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	427	2,130	117,307	358,862	32.69%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	39	137	296	422
ATP	Gross
$18.41	$2,159,622

[MightyDargon]

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

This really is going to be a weekend for the ages. But obviously studios will take the wrong lesson from this and try to force idiotic pairings in the future and Mattel is gonna start production on all 20 of their ideas, including the ones that make no sense, and we'll end up with a double bill of Viewmaster and Boris: A True British Underdog Story.

The only way a Boris movie would work would be as a slapstick comedy where they play the Bulk and Skull music whenever he does something stupid. Nobody cares about him but for memes about how stoopid he is. He's like the UK's Rob Ford.

[SchumacherFTW]

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

This really is going to be a weekend for the ages. But obviously studios will take the wrong lesson from this and try to force idiotic pairings in the future and Mattel is gonna start production on all 20 of their ideas, including the ones that make no sense, and we'll end up with a double bill of Viewmaster and Boris: A True British Underdog Story.

Didn't we already have the Boris one with that Branagh TV show? 

[ZackM]

13 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

lol

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	624	54	82	203	37
Seats Added	79,586	7,383	11,724	25,954	4,350
Seats Sold	25,344	16,443	10,857	11,474	11,477
7/17/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	3,504	174,061	538,261	32.34%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	55	219	486	846
ATP	Gross
$16.02	$2,788,457

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
7/17/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,738	20,668	95.50%
ATP	Gross
$21.13	$417,064

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	1,006	624	54	82	203
Seats Added	122,030	79,586	7,383	11,724	25,954
Seats Sold	31,753	25,344	16,443	10,857	11,474
7/18/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	4,510	205,814	660,291	31.17%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	72	264	587	1,014
ATP	Gross
$15.91	$3,274,501

 

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
7/18/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,800	20,668	95.80%
ATP	Gross
$21.12	$418,176

 

[ZackM]

13 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 425
Showings - 3,253
Sold - 148,221
Total - 597,488
ATP - $17.01
 

Saturday
Theaters - 425
Showings - 3,220
Sold - 145,688
Total - 595,163
ATP - $16.34
 

 

Oppenheimer Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,143
Sold - 173,922
Total - 704,930
ATP - $16.82

 

Saturday
Theaters - 429
Showings - 4,128
Sold - 170,344
Total - 706,049
ATP - $16.19
 

[reddevil19]

7 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Didn't we already have the Boris one with that Branagh TV show? 

Yes, but not a shot in IMAX theatrical release.

[ZackM]

13 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

lol

 

Barbie Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 416
Showings - 5,254
Sold - 232,422
Total - 852,962
ATP - $15.45
 

Saturday
Theaters - 415
Showings - 5,191
Sold - 172,499
Total - 841,491
ATP - $15.01

 

Barbie Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,049
Sold - 281,806
Total - 1,095,658
ATP - $15.25

 

Saturday
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,063
Sold - 208,152
Total - 1,101,387
ATP - $14.84

[MightyDargon]

Just now, reddevil19 said:

Yes, but not a shot in IMAX theatrical release.

Yes, I'm sure we need IMAX for a movie consisting mainly of hair jokes, BoJo sounding like a British Will Ferrell character and an obligatory scene where he runs around to the Benny Hill theme.

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

2 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Barbie Friday and Saturday

 

Friday
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,049
Sold - 281,806
Total - 1,095,658
ATP - $15.25

 

Saturday
Theaters - 417
Showings - 7,063
Sold - 208,152
Total - 1,101,387
ATP - $14.84

Wait is it me? Am I wrong? Or do these jumps seem ridiculous? Wtf…