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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Link to last week's post

 

Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Barbie 3,336 115,871 -14.20% 110,444 1,003.84 5,427 0 0
Haunted Mansion 3,056 73,105   68,259   4,846 0 0
Oppenheimer 3,062 56,181 -13.06% 50,473 1,100.87 5,708 4,029 0
Talk to Me 2,113 37,809   37,792   17 0 0
Sound of Freedom 2,659 32,273 -12.68% 32,252 536.39 21 0 0
Mission: Impossible 7 2,625 30,602 -39.66% 30,383 381.61 219 0 0
Indiana Jones 5 1,717 15,595 -43.20% 15,572 243.24 23 0 0
Elemental 1,671 14,003 -49.45% 13,586 206.63 417 0 411
Insidious 6 1,588 13,991 -51.68% 13,985 229.16 6 0 0
The First Slam Dunk 539 6,041   6,041   0 0 0
Spider-Verse 2 639 4,009 -62.00% 4,009 273.30 0 0 0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for


OW Showtimes Comps

Haunted Mansion - 73,105 (3,056 TC)

 - Addams Family 2 - 68,219 (3,204)

 - Strange World - 71,743 (3,406)

 - Puss in Boots 2 - 71,525 (3,434)

 

Talk to Me - 37,809 (2,113)*

 - Last Night in Soho - 37,843 (2,701)

 - Antlers - 36,968 (2,572)

 - Reminiscence - 37,739 (2,931)

 

Talk to Me sample is well above the 1900 reported TC, so expect that to rise with actuals.  With Canada it should be ~2300

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

TMNT 7/29 EA - 691 (642 TC)

TMNT 7/31 EA - 526 (492 TC) (317 PLF)

TMNT 5-Day - 89,925 (2,662 TC) (13,668 previews)

 - M:I 7 5-Day - 117,939 (2,992) (16,525 previews)

 - Strange World 5-Day - 64,162 (2,768) (5,517 previews)

 - Puss in Boots - 59,985 (2,877) (no previews)

 

TMNT 3-Day - 39,056 (2,105 TC) (excludes previews)

 - Sonic 2 (F-Su) - 41,892 (2,764)

 - Dragon Ball Super (F-Su) - 39,419 (2,460)

 - Dune (F-Su) - 38,300 (2,771)

 

The Meg 2 - 38,093 (1,911 TC) (7,486 previews)

 - Lost City - 38,802 (2,634) (6,823 previews)

 - Haunted Mansion - 41,831 (2,393) (8,100 previews)

 - TMNT (3-Day) - 39,056 (2,105) (no previews)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Gran Turismo 8/2 EA - 100

Gran Turismo 8/8 IMAX EA - 130

Gran Turismo 8/9 EA - 725 (663)

Gran Turismo - 7,244 (1,832 TC)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 7,254 (2,180)

 - Super Pets - 7,321 (1,843)

 

The Last Voyage of the Demeter - 3,037 (1,278 TC)

 - Firestarter - 2,811 (1,150)

 - The Menu - 3,316 (1,418)

 - Missing - 2,800 (1,182)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Strays (8/14 Alamo EA) - 32

Strays (8/16 EA) - 746

Strays - 3,870 (1,394 TC)

 - 80 for Brady - 3,779 (1,353)

 - Dungeons & Dragons - 4,074 (959)

Damn that's a big drop for Elemental

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4 hours ago, AN9815 said:

$145m for Turtles would be amazing, would love that to happen but I just don't see it yet

Just like The Bad Guys, DC Super Pets and Puss in Boots TLW, TMNT has a lot of weeks until another animated movie releases, so just like those films, it should have some sexy legs.

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1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Link to last week's post

 

Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Barbie 3,336 115,871 -14.20% 110,444 1,003.84 5,427 0 0
Haunted Mansion 3,056 73,105   68,259   4,846 0 0
Oppenheimer 3,062 56,181 -13.06% 50,473 1,100.87 5,708 4,029 0
Talk to Me 2,113 37,809   37,792   17 0 0
Sound of Freedom 2,659 32,273 -12.68% 32,252 536.39 21 0 0
Mission: Impossible 7 2,625 30,602 -39.66% 30,383 381.61 219 0 0
Indiana Jones 5 1,717 15,595 -43.20% 15,572 243.24 23 0 0
Elemental 1,671 14,003 -49.45% 13,586 206.63 417 0 411
Insidious 6 1,588 13,991 -51.68% 13,985 229.16 6 0 0
The First Slam Dunk 539 6,041   6,041   0 0 0
Spider-Verse 2 639 4,009 -62.00% 4,009 273.30 0 0 0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for


OW Showtimes Comps

Haunted Mansion - 73,105 (3,056 TC)

 - Addams Family 2 - 68,219 (3,204)

 - Strange World - 71,743 (3,406)

 - Puss in Boots 2 - 71,525 (3,434)

 

Talk to Me - 37,809 (2,113)*

 - Last Night in Soho - 37,843 (2,701)

 - Antlers - 36,968 (2,572)

 - Reminiscence - 37,739 (2,931)

 

Talk to Me sample is well above the 1900 reported TC, so expect that to rise with actuals.  With Canada it should be ~2300

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

TMNT 7/29 EA - 691 (642 TC)

TMNT 7/31 EA - 526 (492 TC) (317 PLF)

TMNT 5-Day - 89,925 (2,662 TC) (13,668 previews)

 - M:I 7 5-Day - 117,939 (2,992) (16,525 previews)

 - Strange World 5-Day - 64,162 (2,768) (5,517 previews)

 - Puss in Boots - 59,985 (2,877) (no previews)

 

TMNT 3-Day - 39,056 (2,105 TC) (excludes previews)

 - Sonic 2 (F-Su) - 41,892 (2,764)

 - Dragon Ball Super (F-Su) - 39,419 (2,460)

 - Dune (F-Su) - 38,300 (2,771)

 

The Meg 2 - 38,093 (1,911 TC) (7,486 previews)

 - Lost City - 38,802 (2,634) (6,823 previews)

 - Haunted Mansion - 41,831 (2,393) (8,100 previews)

 - TMNT (3-Day) - 39,056 (2,105) (no previews)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Gran Turismo 8/2 EA - 100

Gran Turismo 8/8 IMAX EA - 130

Gran Turismo 8/9 EA - 725 (663)

Gran Turismo - 7,244 (1,832 TC)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 7,254 (2,180)

 - Super Pets - 7,321 (1,843)

 

The Last Voyage of the Demeter - 3,037 (1,278 TC)

 - Firestarter - 2,811 (1,150)

 - The Menu - 3,316 (1,418)

 - Missing - 2,800 (1,182)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Strays (8/14 Alamo EA) - 32

Strays (8/16 EA) - 746

Strays - 3,870 (1,394 TC)

 - 80 for Brady - 3,779 (1,353)

 - Dungeons & Dragons - 4,074 (959)

Elementalbros it's joever...

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23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Link to previous post

 

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Meg 2 T-7 Jax 5 26 13 39 3,549 1.10%
    Phx 5 28 5 12 4,088 0.29%
    Ral 8 21 5 20 2,522 0.79%
  Total   18 75 23 71 10,159 0.70%
Turtles T-5 Jax 5 47 9 96 6,390 1.50%
    Phx 6 64 12 136 9,504 1.43%
    Ral 8 49 13 154 6,926 2.22%
  Total   19 160 34 386 22,820 1.69%
Turtles (EA) T-2 Jax 4 6 13 135 384 35.16%
    Phx 1 1 19 55 169 32.54%
    Ral 3 3 9 136 433 31.41%
  Total   8 10 41 326 986 33.06%
  T-4 Jax 5 7 22 185 961 19.25%
    Phx 1 1 18 131 208 62.98%
  Total   7 9 40 316 1,169 27.03%

 

Turtles (Total) T-5 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .215x (4.78m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.15x (7.17m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.77x (5.56m w/ today's average)

 - Indiana Jones - .91x (6.55m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - Transformers (Total) - missed

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .771x (6.79m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.29m

 

Turtles pace chart

 

Movie 3-day pace Prev 3-day Prev 3-day Last Day
Turtles Total 46.44% 20.80% 14.75% 12.60%
Barbie Total 45.65% 31.00% 23.26% 9.53%
Sonic 2 (Total) 32.54% 22.04% 18.98% 12.70%
Haunted Mansion Total 43.10% 20.44% 17.96% 14.15%
Indiana Jones 30.33% 9.11% 13.96% 13.34%
M:I 7 Total 34.10% 14.08% 19.20% 11.27%

 

Last day right in line with comps.  Sticking with my average of 6.3m

 

Meg 2 T-7 comps

 - F9 - .074x (522k)

 - Massive Talent - 2.63x (1.84m)

 - Free Guy - .444x (976k)

 - Snake Eyes - .888x (1.24m)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Meg 2 T-6 Jax 5 29 25 64 4,698 1.36%
    Phx 5 29 9 21 4,211 0.50%
    Ral 8 21 0 20 2,522 0.79%
  Total   18 79 34 105 11,431 0.92%
Turtles T-4 Jax 5 50 28 124 6,726 1.84%
    Phx 6 61 27 163 8,532 1.91%
    Ral 8 49 24 178 6,926 2.57%
  Total   19 160 79 465 22,184 2.10%
Turtles (EA) T-1 Jax 4 6 30 165 384 42.97%
    Phx 1 1 24 79 169 46.75%
    Ral 3 3 31 167 433 38.57%
  Total   8 10 85 411 986 41.68%
  T-3 Jax 5 7 27 212 961 22.06%
    Phx 1 1 5 136 208 65.38%
  Total   7 9 32 348 1,169 29.77%

 

Turtles (Total) T-4 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .229x (5.1m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.2x (7.5m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.89x 

 - Indiana Jones - .98x (7.03m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - 1.524x (6.86m)

 - Dune - missed

 - Transformers (Total) - .815x (7.17m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .786x (6.92m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.26m

 

Turtles pace chart

 

Movie 3-day pace Prev 3-day Prev 3-day Last Day
Turtles Total 53.00% 25.25% 14.21% 19.07%
Barbie Total 41.64% 34.15% 24.47% 11.73%
Sonic 2 (Total) 40.50% 22.73% 16.22% 13.84%
Indiana Jones 38.56% 9.39% 12.68% 10.97%
Fantastic Beasts 3   29.29% 29.64%  
Ghostbusters Total 35.87% 19.29%    
Transformers Total 32.69%      
M:I 7 Total 41.16% 18.13% 14.84% 16.80%

 

Really good day for Turtles, but more than half of that was in the EA shows.  Right now it looks like three solid days of sales so there's no telling how this will all pan out.  Things are looking good for 7m+ total though, but that's also before Tuesday discounts.  

 

Meg 2 T-6 comps

 - Massive Talent - 2.442x (1.71m)

 - Free Guy - .517x (1.14m)

 - Snake Eyes - 1.105x (1.55m)

 - Beast - 2.143x (1.98m)

 - Old - 2.143x (3.21m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .82x (1.19m)

 

Added a few thrillers to the list.  Those tend to be more walkup heavy which I'm expecting here.  Hoping this can push for 2m at least.  

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23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Link to previous post

 

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Gran Turismo T-14 Jax 5 30 -1 12 4,872 0.25%
    Phx 5 23 4 44 5,736 0.77%
    Ral 7 25 -1 10 4,074 0.25%
  Total   17 78 2 66 14,682 0.45%
Gran Turismo (EA) T-12 Jax 2 2 0 9 841 1.07%
  T-13 Jax 4 7 8 42 960 4.38%
    Phx 1 1 5 23 208 11.06%
    Ral 1 1 0 8 261 3.07%
  Total   6 9 13 73 1,429 5.11%
  T-6 Jax 1 1 0 2 51 3.92%
    Phx 1 1 0 0 123 0.00%
  Total   3 3 0 2 174 1.15%
Last Voyage T-14 Jax 5 12 5 8 1,387 0.58%
    Phx 3 8 0 1 651 0.15%
    Ral 5 13 2 6 1,193 0.50%
  Total   13 33 7 15 3,231 0.46%

 

Gran Turismo (Total) T-14 comps

 - F9 - .263x (1.87m)

 - John Wick 4 - .208x (1.85m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .217x (1.91m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .566x (1.78m w/ today's average)

 

Is this really gonna be this simple to predict?

 

Still too early to glean anything from Last Voyage

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Gran Turismo T-13 Jax 5 30 1 13 4,872 0.27%
    Phx 5 26 1 45 6,014 0.75%
    Ral 7 25 1 11 4,074 0.27%
  Total   17 81 3 69 14,960 0.46%
Gran Turismo (EA) T-11 Jax 2 2 0 9 841 1.07%
  T-12 Jax 4 7 2 44 960 4.58%
    Phx 1 1 6 29 208 13.94%
    Ral 1 1 1 9 261 3.45%
  Total   6 9 9 82 1,429 5.74%
  T-5 Jax 1 1 0 2 51 3.92%
    Phx 1 1 0 0 123 0.00%
  Total   3 3 0 2 174 1.15%
Last Voyage T-13 Jax 5 12 3 11 1,387 0.79%
    Phx 5 14 1 2 1,138 0.18%
    Ral 6 15 1 7 1,361 0.51%
  Total   16 41 5 20 3,886 0.51%

 

Gran Turismo (Total) T-13 comps

 - F9 - .253x (1.8m)

 - John Wick 4 - .204x (1.81m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .211x (1.85m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .574x 

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .274x (1.64m)

 - Turtles (Total) - .316x (2.2m w/ today's avg)

 

Last Voyage T-13 comps

 - M3GAN - .606x (1.67m)

 - Black Phone - .253x (658k)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .25x (363k)

 - Insidious 5 - .317x (1.59m)

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23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Strays T-21 Jax 5 12 6 6 1,615 0.37%
    Phx 4 16 3 3 1,821 0.16%
    Ral 5 15 8 8 2,196 0.36%
  Total   14 43 17 17 5,632 0.30%
Strays (EA) T-20 Jax 2 2 1 1 225 0.44%
    Phx 2 2 0 0 279 0.00%
    Ral 3 3 0 0 418 0.00%
  Total   7 7 1 1 922 0.11%

 

Gasp... another EA.

 

Too early to comp, just wanted to get a starting point.

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Strays T-20 Jax 5 12 0 6 1,615 0.37%
    Phx 5 20 2 5 2,081 0.24%
    Ral 5 15 2 10 2,196 0.46%
  Total   15 47 4 21 5,892 0.36%
Strays (EA) T-19 Jax 2 2 2 3 225 1.33%
    Phx 2 2 0 0 279 0.00%
    Ral 3 3 0 0 418 0.00%
  Total   7 7 2 3 922 0.33%

 

Strays (Total) T-20 comps

 - Easter Sunday (5 tickets) - 4.8x (2.4m)

 - D&D (Total) - .414x (2.32m)

 - M3GAN - .857x (2.36m)

 

No idea where this is heading.  Very early to be comping with this low sales.

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The last two weekends of show cuts for elemental were not justified by the holds imo, sad.   
 

CRAZY show holds barbenheimer, non Ele/SoF holdovers suffering this week to the counts they should have been closer to last week

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11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Haunted Mansion MTC1 Previews Final - 60349/356867 925738.07 2356 shows

 

~ 3.5m previews including early shows. 

over indexed big time relative to Jungle cruise. 

 

Anyway

Haunted Mansion MTC1 Friday - 51527/591658 761128.85 3984 shows

 

Thinking 9.5-10m OD including previews. 

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Weekend show count in Orlando-Melbourne-Daytona 

 

  • Barbie | 1378 showings (-409 showings from last weekend)
  • Haunted mansion | 829 showings (NEW)
  • Oppenheimer | 628 showings (-144 showings from last weekend)

 

 

  • Talk to me | 426 showings (NEW)
  • Mi7 | 383 showings (-206 showings from last weekend)
  • SOF | 370 showings (-76 showings from last weekend)

 

 

  • Indy 5 | 196 showings (-94 showings from last weekend)
  • Insidious | 194 showings (-177 showings from last weekend)
  • Elemental | 175 showings (-116 showings from last weekend)

 

 

  • ATSV | 80 showings (-87 showings from last weekend)
  • NHF | 19 showings (-18 showings from last weekend)
  • TLM | 15 showings (-46 showings from last weekend)

 

Edited by TheFlatLannister
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Quorum Updates

The Last Voyage of the Demeter T-15: 21.59% Awareness

Bottoms T-36: 14.7% Awareness

The Nun II T-43: 34.31% Awareness

Killers of the Flower Moon T-85: 19.37% Awareness

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-113: 21.78% Awareness

The Color Purple T-151: 32.74% Awareness

 

Haunted Mansion T-1: 57.09% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 89% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 44% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M

Known IP Awareness: 100% chance of 40M

 

Talk to Me T-1: 26.83% Awareness

Final Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

 

Meg 2: The Trench T-8: 46.38% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 89% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M, 37% chance of 30M, 22% chance of 40M

 

The Creator T-64: 12.02% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 21% chance of 10M

Original - High Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

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23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

203

852

36938

2.3%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-4

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

10

554

1756

31.5%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

22

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS 

T-5

*Without EA

 

(1.170x) of Elemental

~$2.81M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

(0.429x) of RoTB

~$3.77M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

AVG: $3.29M TUE only + $1Mish EA = $4.29M+

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

206

1032

37496

2.8%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

180

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-3

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

10

584

1756

33.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS 

T-4

*Without EA

 

(1.277x) of Elemental

~$3.07M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

(0.471x) of RoTB

~$4.14M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

(0.558x) of Mi7

~$3.91M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

AVG: $3.71M TUE only + $1Mish EA = $4.71M+

 

Heading towards $5M+ total previews 

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23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

THE MEG 2: THE TRENCH

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

151

197

26294

0.75%

*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

28

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.129x) of Mi7

~$903k THUR Previews

 

(0.111x) of Fast X

~$832k THUR Previews

 

(0.116x) of RoTB

~$1.02M THUR Previews

 

Comp AVG: $918k

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

THE MEG 2: THE TRENCH

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

151

218

26294

0.83%

*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

21

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.136x) of Mi7

~$953k THUR Previews

 

(0.119x) of Fast X

~$895k THUR Previews

 

(0.120x) of RoTB

~$1.05M THUR Previews

 

Comp AVG: $966k

 

Well, at least its slightly on the uptick. Still no Disney springs showings. 

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TMNT MTC1

Sneaks(7/29) - 15848/30425 161109.40 218 shows

Early shows(7/31) - 17851/31085 374233.49 166 shows

Previews(8/1) - 22218/528323 363997.92 3345 shows

 

Its release is similar to MI7 and its also having strong reviews. I think with shortage of family movies this could do better than expected. I am hoping for 50m by next Sunday and go towards 150m domestic. 

 

I think based on @katnisscinnaplex show numbers, MTC1 will not over index either for sneaks or early shows. Thinking 1.5-2m for early shows. Previews being discount day is hard to predict. Let us see where the numbers end. 

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5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Delaying the movie after presales have started means they are getting push back from theaters for PLF and its abysmal presales. I think longer gap to Barbenheimer might get the PLF/Imax back for the movies. But that is not going to rescue the movie's BO for sure. 

They will get National Cinema Day on Sunday.

 

$4/$5 tickets.

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