The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Kon]

11 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

the marvels's reactions were somewhat decent, but the reviews probably negate any positive impact they could have had, should have kept it up till previews began 

 

 

 

I guess Disney/Marvel wasn't miscalculatin for hiding the embargo for so long.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Kon said:

 

I guess Disney/Marvel wasn't miscalculatin for hiding the embargo for so long.

I would again reiterative bad news is better than no news. It would have been better to allow social media reaction like 10 days before release and may be reviews by last friday. They ought to have done fan screenings like Guardians did. 

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would again reiterative bad news is better than no news. It would have been better to allow social media reaction like 10 days before release and may be reviews by last friday. They ought to have done fan screenings like Guardians did. 

Well...with free booze, maybe.

But yes, I do agree with you. They needed a higher profile for the movie. Pump fan screenings out and get the "it's fun!" crowd tweeting.

Edited November 8, 2023 by reddevil19

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-1):

 

1,514 tickets at 10 Houston AMC's/+202 YD

 

Comp:

 

0.573x The Flash = $5.56m

 

Dropped 3% vs Flash comp compared to YD 

[Shawn Robbins]

Going 35-49, pinpoint at 42.2

 

Stunned that I just typed that about an MCU movie.

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, Shawn said:

Going 35-49, pinpoint at 42.2

 

Stunned that I just typed that about an MCU movie.

Wow. We are witnessing history.

Every passing day, The Rock gets more vindication.

[Marathon]

Holy mother of god.

[Mojoguy]

That green rotten splatter on RT probably scared off the fence sitters that were planning to see Marvels this weekend. Only good WOM can get them back at this point.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Mojoguy

[vafrow]

54 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

That green rotten splatter on RT probably scared off the fence sitters that were planning to see Marvels this weekend. Only good WOM can get them back at this point.

 

There's already enough warning signs of lack of engagement from casual fans. This is the final push back , and little chance to recover over opening weekend.

 

And with the number of wide releases over the next two weekends, it'll be out of the top 5 pretty quickly and no real pathway to find a second life.

 

Stronger than expected reviews were it's last chance, and it went the other direction.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

Going 35-49, pinpoint at 42.2

 

Stunned that I just typed that about an MCU movie.

 

It's been an unbelievable year with shocking highs and lows, hasn't it?

 

I'm surprised you didn't leave in a "5" - not that I expect it to get there, but if another nationwide promo code hits this weekend for regular screenings, it would probably nudge it there...since the 1st promo dropped with zero warning, I can't discount a 2nd when Disney sees your projections and these reviews...

[Zakiyyah6]

I'm predicting 50M. 

[Cmasterclay]

That number wouldn't just be nuclear for the MCU, it'd probably trigger a whole round of "are theaters dying?" stories, justified or not.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

That number wouldn't just be nuclear for the MCU, it'd probably trigger a whole round of "are theaters dying?" stories, justified or not.

THG doing 60-70m next weekend might be enough to halt those articles. Also Wish and Trolls seem like solid candidates for mid 100s domestic.

Edited November 8, 2023 by YM!

[belblazer]

I was expecting a decent amount of fans to show up for The Marvels after the reviews if it at least stays fresh, but since already debuted and will stay rotten it's DOA.

[Zakiyyah6]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

That number wouldn't just be nuclear for the MCU, it'd probably trigger a whole round of "are theaters dying?" stories, justified or not.

I hate those overly dramatic articles. No theaters aren't back to normal and they probably never will be but they'll keep chugging along.

[MovieMan89]

It is not impossible for this to open on Blue Beetle level with reviews and official predicts now entering the 30s territory… the other thing of it is, it’s virtually guaranteed a sub 2x multi as well in that case. CBMs that have mediocre or worse reception and bomb so bad on opening go sub 2x typically. 

[Mojoguy]

11 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I hate those overly dramatic articles. No theaters aren't back to normal and they probably never will be but they'll keep chugging along.

As long as people keep buying overpriced popcorn, theaters will be fine.

[belblazer]

Deadline's $140M projection is not going to happen. It was including $60M DOM and $80M OS lol

 

 

 

 

[Arlborn]

22 minutes ago, YM! said:

THG doing 60-70m next weekend might be enough to halt those articles. Also Wish and Trolls seem like solid candidates for mid 100s domestic.

60-70M? That'd be awesome, but are we in that range already?

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's been an unbelievable year with shocking highs and lows, hasn't it?

 

I'm surprised you didn't leave in a "5" - not that I expect it to get there, but if another nationwide promo code hits this weekend for regular screenings, it would probably nudge it there...since the 1st promo dropped with zero warning, I can't discount a 2nd when Disney sees your projections and these reviews...

Definitely possible.

 

A "5" was very much in the mix for the weekend number until late this morning with a final pre-sale data pull and the review embargo coming down.

 

Maybe it can squeak by 50 still, I just think the odds of a preview number closer to $5m than to $6.5m have increased a little bit. I don't have a lot of faith in $7m anymore as no MCU comps get it there in the data sets I see today. It became harder to keep a low end in the 30s with a ceiling in the 50s for a franchise that is usually consistent and is swinging in the wrong direction sentiment-wise.

 

In fact, the only comps I'm seeing that get Marvels over $5.8m as of this early afternoon's sales are all non-MCU. That's concerning to me. But possibly... maybe... the lack of urgency will lead to less frontloading. But the reviews don't help with that goal/hope.

 

All that said, $6.0m flat is baked in for a couple of rounding-friendly reasons.