The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, YM! said:

My mistake lol. I meant that in exchange for doing mixed on MTC1, it overperforms in other chains.

I think that is a simple product of it not having Imax and limited PLF at MTC1. Plus it may appeal beyond the mega cities as dominated by MTC1. We saw that big time with Mario and Barbie. But those movies are not comparable to Trolls as they are in different stratosphere. 

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-2, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 365

New sales: 42

Growth: 13.0%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 21

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.574x of Marvels for $3.7M

0.347x of FNAF for $3.5M

Avg: $3.6M

 

Single theatre comps

0.615x T:ROTB for $5.4M

1.333x IJ:DoD for $9.6M

Avg: $7.5M

 

Tickets per showtime analysis 

Avg: 17.4

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 7.8

Early Evening: 28.1

Late Evening: 10.1

 

By format:

Regular: 5.0

Dolby: 24.1

VIP: 20.6

IMAX: 15.5

4DX: 8.0

 

Another fairly mediocre day. 

 

Interestingly, the matinees saw big movement. Not sure what's driving that.

 

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-1, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 421

New sales: 56

Growth: 15.3%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 21

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.580x of Marvels for $3.8M

0.349x of FNAF for $3.6M

Avg: $3.7M

 

Single theatre comps

0.758x T:ROTB for $6.7M

1.563x IJ:DoD for $11.3M

Avg: $8.9M

 

Tickets per showtime analysis 

Avg: 20.0

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 8.8

Early Evening: 32.0

Late Evening: 12.3

 

By format:

Regular: 6.3

Dolby: 28.1

VIP: 23.4

IMAX: 17.5

4DX: 9.0

 

Really not much again. It didn't get to 60% of Marvels, which is what I was hoping for as a minimum.

 

Sales that are happening seem balanced among different time slots and formats, so there's not much to interpret there.

 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
221	2748	44686	6.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

507

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

39

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.588x) of TLM $6.06M Previews

(0.575x) of FNAF $5.92M Previews

(0.682x) of The Flash $6.61M Previews

(0.813x) of The Marvels $5.36M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.99M

 

Very good day. Heading to $6.5M+

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
221	3144	44686	7.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

396

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.590x) of TLM $6.07M Previews

(0.576x) of FNAF $5.94M Previews

(0.826x) of The Marvels $5.45M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.82M

 

Huh, decreased in sales from yesterday which is not a great sign.

[vafrow]

Wonka, T-29, D1 hour 7, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius 19km

 

Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 4

Early Evening: 8

Late Evening: 8

 

Showtimes by format

Regular: 0

Dolby: 7

VIP: 4

IMAX: 6

4DX: 3

 

Zero sales so far, so thought I'd at least catalogue the showtime data.

 

I'm a little surprised that there's nothing so far for this. I don't expect monster preview numbers or anything, but was hoping we might see some initial interest.

 

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

2 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Wonka, T-29, D1 hour 7, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius 19km

 

Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 4

Early Evening: 8

Late Evening: 8

 

Showtimes by format

Regular: 0

Dolby: 7

VIP: 4

IMAX: 6

4DX: 3

 

Zero sales so far, so thought I'd at least catalogue the showtime data.

 

I'm a little surprised that there's nothing so far for this. I don't expect monster preview numbers or anything, but was hoping we might see some initial interest.

 

It just doesn't look all that good. And I feel like its audience is super young, so I don't know how much previews really matter for it. Maybe I'm wrong. 

[MovieMan89]

What if Trolls, THG, and Thanksgiving all “split the pie” this weekend with 20 something debuts? Not saying it will happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised.

[Bob Train]

Wonka is not gonna have a huge OW. It will rely more on legs.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Wonka is not gonna have a huge OW. It will rely more on legs.

 

We'll know How Real Wonka is when @Eric Danvers comes out of Tracking Retirement to Track How His Boi is Doin' In Philly!!!! 👍

[Mojoguy]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

What if Trolls, THG, and Thanksgiving all “split the pie” this weekend with 20 something debuts? Not saying it will happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised.

They are all going for different audiences.

[TheFlatLannister]

I should have Wonka numbers up by 8pm 

[TwoMisfits]

Since someone mentioned MTC 2 and Wonka...my Cinemarks have put it on 2 screens each (with the PLF location giving it 1 of 2 PLF screens).  Nothing big.  

 

And who didn't tell me Christmas with the Chosen has decided to release on the same dang weekend  (Edit to add - now it looks like a Tuesday open before the weekend)?  Another $10M print-money-from-a-tv show weekend incoming, I expect.  It will be direct 55+ female adult competition for Wonka,,,

Edited November 16, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[M37]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

@M37 regional data like this makes me think Trolls will index at MTC1 relative to Disney animation. Just look at MTC split for this vs Wish !!!

I'm not sure what you mean? In this market, MTC1 accounts for 25% of Trolls tickets sold, and 86% of Wish - those are clearly not the same?

 

But my broader point, the reason I asked about MTC2, is that we currently have some demographic under-representation in our aggregated tracking samples. MTC1 has a large enough footprint and is the "cool kids" TC that its usually enough for more younger adult/PLF heavy films, and Orlando and Sacto are more diverse (than say OK and Minn/St Paul) that can help round out the picture.  But with the Orlando already having a heavy Disney skew, Sacto not being tracked for Trolls, MTC2 unavailable, and frankly not a lot of great comps available for any market, that semi-blind spot becomes magnified

 

tl;dr - if Trolls were to over-index with Black and particularly Hispanic families (think Sonic or Minions), then I'm not sure the data in hand would illuminate that skew, and could be undervaluing the potential. [And I'm not even claiming that Trolls will, its just something that's been in the back of my mind as we've transitioned to a new coalition of trackers]

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

I'm not sure what you mean? In this market, MTC1 accounts for 25% of Trolls tickets sold, and 86% of Wish - those are clearly not the same?

 

But my broader point, the reason I asked about MTC2, is that we currently have some demographic under-representation in our aggregated tracking samples. MTC1 has a large enough footprint and is the "cool kids" TC that its usually enough for more younger adult/PLF heavy films, and Orlando and Sacto are more diverse (than say OK and Minn/St Paul) that can help round out the picture.  But with the Orlando already having a heavy Disney skew, Sacto not being tracked for Trolls, MTC2 unavailable, and frankly not a lot of great comps available for any market, that semi-blind spot becomes magnified

 

tl;dr - if Trolls were to over-index with Black and particularly Hispanic families (think Sonic or Minions), then I'm not sure the data in hand would illuminate that skew, and could be undervaluing the potential. [And I'm not even claiming that Trolls will, its just something that's been in the back of my mind as we've transitioned to a new coalition of trackers]

That is what I meant. Most movies will skew MTC1 early on due to subscribers. Trolls is not doing that. That said I would add something like 10% to what MTC1 would indicate at best. Ultimately volume of sales is not that crazy. 

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Silent Night T-16: 27.65%

Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce T-16: 25.23%

The Boy and the Heron T-23: 19.16%

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-114: 40.87%

Horizon: An American Saga Part 1 T-226: 19.61%

Despicable Me 4 T-231: 41.82%

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-2: 56.29% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 69% chance of 30M, 30% chance of 40M, 26% chance of 50M, 17% chance of 60M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M

 

Thanksgiving T-2: 46.67% Awareness

Final Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 56% chance of 20M, 32% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 29% chance of 40M

 

Trolls Band Together T-2: 56.44% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 69% chance of 30M, 30% chance of 40M, 26% chance of 50M, 17% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

 

Next Goal Wins T-2: 20.53% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

[keysersoze123]

On 11/6/2023 at 4:44 PM, keysersoze123 said:

I keep getting lot of pings on Renaissance. 

 

Renaissance MTC1 previews - 87008/317324 2199675.00 1586 shows// +3776 over past 16 days

 

Not sure how to extrapolate from this. its in low 20s% of Eras in gross while the shows are not so full as well compared to how crazy it was for Eras. 

Renaissance MTC1

Previews - 91355/318811 2306126.00 1600 shows

Friday - 73830/718097 1881835.00 3454 shows

 

it sold around 14500 tickets for friday over 39 days !!! I am thinking 5m previews and high 20s OW. 

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

I'm not sure what you mean? In this market, MTC1 accounts for 25% of Trolls tickets sold, and 86% of Wish - those are clearly not the same?

 

But my broader point, the reason I asked about MTC2, is that we currently have some demographic under-representation in our aggregated tracking samples. MTC1 has a large enough footprint and is the "cool kids" TC that its usually enough for more younger adult/PLF heavy films, and Orlando and Sacto are more diverse (than say OK and Minn/St Paul) that can help round out the picture.  But with the Orlando already having a heavy Disney skew, Sacto not being tracked for Trolls, MTC2 unavailable, and frankly not a lot of great comps available for any market, that semi-blind spot becomes magnified

 

tl;dr - if Trolls were to over-index with Black and particularly Hispanic families (think Sonic or Minions), then I'm not sure the data in hand would illuminate that skew, and could be undervaluing the potential. [And I'm not even claiming that Trolls will, its just something that's been in the back of my mind as we've transitioned to a new coalition of trackers]

 

AND, MTC2's subscriber base of over 1M people is for 1 movie/month with partially discounted tickets for family members to that same movie, so the subscriber base there tends to skew hard to GA and families.  With over 1M folks as subscribers at MTC 2, if they coalesce strongly around 1 particular movie in a month, you can see how you can get a big miss if you don't cover it. 

 

This month has a lot of choices, so I don't expect a big miss (aka a total coalesce on one option)...but it's good to check...  

Edited November 16, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[MovieMan89]

23 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

They are all going for different audiences.

Yeah but it still would represent a decent opening for one movie that had actual widespread appeal. Just split into 3 meh openings with limited appeal 

[HummingLemon496]

Since official tracking for Aquaman is starting in a couple days, what are your predictions for the Thursday previews?

[M37]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is what I meant. Most movies will skew MTC1 early on due to subscribers. Trolls is not doing that. That said I would add something like 10% to what MTC1 would indicate at best. Ultimately volume of sales is not that crazy. 

Ok, we're in agreement on the MTCs. But also Disney family has been over-indexing at MTC1 (and metros generally) of late* which is why I made the comment earlier about not liking having to rely so heavily on the Elemental comp in general. And again I don't think it will be this high, but the delta between an MTC1 over-index (sub $50 PSM) and a more casual audience (over $60 PSM) can be over 20%

 

*they have "rural America problem" IMO (the details of which are not appropriate for the tracking thread)

[TheFlatLannister]

20 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I should have Wonka numbers up by 8pm 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-29 *First few Hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
187	497	34702	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-29

 

(0.511x) of Oppenheimer $5.37M Previews

(0.324x) of Indy 5 $2.34M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.86M

 

❌

No signs of an early breakout