The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[HummingLemon496]

As @Bob Train said, Wonka is gonna have to rely on LEGS 

[Eric Prime]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

We'll know How Real Wonka is when @Eric Danvers comes out of Tracking Retirement to Track How His Boi is Doin' In Philly!!!! 👍

 

[Relevation]

4 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WONKA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-29 *First few Hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
187	497	34702	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-29

 

(0.511x) of Oppenheimer $5.37M Previews

(0.324x) of Indy 5 $2.34M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.86M

 

❌

No signs of an early breakout

Do you have a day one Mario comp? That honestly might work imo given they’re both non Disney family films with a fanbase element 

[MovieMan89]

Wonka having Welcome to the Jungle’s run would surprise me way less than Wonka opening to 60+ would. 

[Bob Train]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon496 said:

As @Bob Train said, Wonka is gonna have to rely on LEGS 

The last major live-action family movie to release in December was Jumanji: The Next Level, which had a 5.4x multiplier.

 

Unless it is hated, Wonka should also put up a similar multiplier.

[CJohn]

The Hunger Games is now rotten so sales should plunge a bit.

[MovieMan89]

At this point I don’t think higher than 40 for Wonka. Which will be perfectly fine if it’s the holiday WOM pick (what else it going to be tbh). 

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Do you have a day one Mario comp? That honestly might work imo given they’re both non Disney family films with a fanbase element 

 

That'd be something like 0.1m given how Mario exploded D1 of pre-sales.

 

Okay, slight exaggeration, but Mario utterly blew the doors off of sales on its first day.  It was clear immediately it was gonna beast — only question was: How Much.

 

No real point in comparing the two, IMO.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Porthos

[Relevation]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

That'd be something like 0.1m given how Mario exploded D1 of pre-sales.

 

Okay, slight exaggeration, but Mario utterly blew the doors off of sales on its first day.  It was clear immediately it was gonna beast — only question was: How Much.

 

No real point in comparing the two, IMO.

Ah. Point taken

 

 

Potentially waltzing in an even worse direction but I don’t believe Barbie’s first day was terribly frontloaded (big obv, but not really frontloaded). Would that work?

[MovieMan89]

Wonka should only be getting compared to stuff like Night at the Museum and Jumanji. Granted, the former is old. 

[MovieMan89]

Just realized I don’t see a 50m opener happening this whole holiday season… wowser 

[Grand Cine]

maybe transformers ( without EA) is a good comp , Scream VI ( driven by females and younger) ? Dungeons & Dragons (without EA) ? for comp for Wonka 

[Grand Cine]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Just realized I don’t see a 50m opener happening this whole holiday season… wowser 

I write a question earlier today who could be the next movie to open with more than 50M

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Thanksgiving is high key going to be the most acclaimed movie of holiday season, isn’t it? Lmao.

 

RIP the hunger games, I’d say next to zero shot at 100 DOM now that it’s rotten. Could see it going as low as 80 total and failing to beat the Marvels. At least Disney may have some kind of a silver lining after all? Although I better not hear anyone use “no cast promo!” as a Marvels excuse now since THG got it. 

Unless it drops like 90% from Mockingjay 2 (not happening) there's a 0% chance that Hunger Games ends up the bigger embarrassment at this point than The Marvels (based on sales near me it looks like it'll land in the Fantastic Beasts 3/Dungeons & Dragons opening range and both movies will at least eek out $100M totals if that's what it comes down to). Even if a total that looks ugly next to the other movies in the series (even the underperforming Mockingjay movies) seems inevitable, this is fortunate to be budgeted at a reasonable level for a movie that was always a dicey proposition (a one-off prequel without JLaw or anyone else from the movies) and doesn't face nearly as many hurdles of approaching profitability like that movie and the other "how the mighty have fallen" franchise underperformers this year.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I write a question earlier today who could be the next movie to open with more than 50M

Apes probably. But only if everything goes exactly right for it (marketing and pre-release reviews). I guess there’s Godzilla x Kong, that’s also an everything goes right scenario. 
 

I am still on the Dune doesn’t have true mainstream appeal train no matter how good it is. 

Edited November 16, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Porthos]

32 minutes ago, Eric Gray Baird said:

 

 

[Bob Train]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Apes probably. But only if everything goes exactly right for it (marketing and pre-release reviews). I guess there’s Godzilla x Kong, that’s also an everything goes right scenario. 
 

I am still on the Dune doesn’t have true mainstream appeal train no matter how good it is. 

If Dune 1 could open to $41m+ while released day and date on HBO during a pandemic then surely Dune 2 is highly likely to open $50m+

[emoviefan]

30 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

The last major live-action family movie to release in December was Jumanji: The Next Level, which had a 5.4x multiplier.

 

Unless it is hated, Wonka should also put up a similar multiplier.

Exactly.

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

If Dune 1 could open to $41m+ while released day and date on HBO during a pandemic then surely Dune 2 is highly likely to open $50m+

Exactly

[Relevation]

9 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I write a question earlier today who could be the next movie to open with more than 50M

Kung Fu Panda 4 is going up into $65M+ territory 

 

Although I still wouldn’t rule out Hunger Games or Wish since there’s still good signs for them to go to $40M+