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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

By Shawn Robbins, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by katnisscinnaplex,

Presales Tracking Information   I guess this is as good of a time as any to share this sheet I've been putting together for the past few weeks.  It's a table of movies from the past few years with relevant pre-sales information (release date, sales date, sales window, previews gross, etc.)  @datpepper and I will try to keep it updated when ticket sales dates are announced for upcoming films to make those easier to find.     There are a few gaps in the sheet where I couldn't f

Pre Sale Data Google Doc

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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, el sid said:

No other trackers for Napoleon and this weekend? 😔

 

Here you go

MTC1 Friday

Napoleon -  53811/395786 794992.01 2546 shows

Wish - 43074/798443 566166.34 5092 shows

Hunger Games - 56333/507726 777987.91 3229 shows

 

Napoleon presales are way stronger than Wednesday presales. Wish on the other hand is barely on par with Wednesday. We know which movie will win Friday as well :-)

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PrinceRico Sleeper Hit

PrinceRico

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Color Purple (T-32):

Day: T-32 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 15 theaters 54 26 234 5502 4.25

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 0 0 0
MTC1: 113 16 48.29
Marcus: 58 3 24.79
Alamo: 14 5 5.98
Other chains: 49 2 20.94

 

Comps:

0.27x Oppy: $2.87 Million

 

Last update I have (Migration sold 0 tickets since Monday). Happy Thanksgiving to everyone on here ❤️ enjoy your holidays and (I hope!) some good time with your loved ones!

Wonder how high tracking will be for this once reviews, Oscar buzz and promo starts. Urban audience have been neglected ever since Creed 3 this year and it looks like they are about to show up big time.

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abracadabra1998 Box Office Gold

abracadabra1998

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

Wonder how high tracking will be for this once reviews, Oscar buzz and promo starts. Urban audience have been neglected ever since Creed 3 this year and it looks like they are about to show up big time.


Every update I’m very surprised, seems like it’s doing pretty good. But, it’s not really preview tracking, it’ll likely be the highest grossing day of its run, so it’s hard to extrapolate its whole run from this one day.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
On 11/22/2023 at 7:55 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Aquaman 2 MTC1 previews - 12131/499215 242120.27 2551 shows +1652

 

its just chugging along as there are T-29 days to go. We have to see where the steady state pace goes  before we can judge where it can finish. Dont forget this is having longer PS cycle than previous 3 DCEU movies. 

Aquaman 2 MTC1 previews(T-28) - 12893/502693 257201.85 2569 shows +762

 

 

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
On 11/20/2023 at 5:59 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 24822/250306 299819.48 1806 shows

12/26 - 6206/250278 74715.22 1782 shows

 

 

its sales for Christmas is impressive this far out. But its just one day. We have to see what that means close to release. 

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 29765/259194 363556.35 1862 shows

12/26 - 7158/256348 86876.40 1822 shows

 

Really good pace for Christmas but nothing much beyond that. 

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zhangyu1377 Rumored Project

zhangyu1377

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Here you go

MTC1 Friday

Napoleon -  53811/395786 794992.01 2546 shows

Wish - 43074/798443 566166.34 5092 shows

Hunger Games - 56333/507726 777987.91 3229 shows

 

Napoleon presales are way stronger than Wednesday presales. Wish on the other hand is barely on par with Wednesday. We know which movie will win Friday as well 🙂 

Will Napoleon reach 8M on Friday?
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
On 11/20/2023 at 2:00 AM, Porthos said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

66

9400

10153

753

7.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Thursday

19

 

Percentage of sales versus TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.74041x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.49m] [1.2x adj]

 

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-7 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

0

62

8835

9619

784

8.15%

 

Total Showings Removed Since Sunday

4

Total Seats Removed Since Sunday

534

Total Seats Sold Since Sunday

31

 

Percentage of sales versus TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.77089x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.59m] [1.2x adj]

 

Next Update: Sunday Night

(yes, these have been Q&D's in all but name)

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, PrinceRico said:

Wonder how high tracking will be for this once reviews, Oscar buzz and promo starts. Urban audience have been neglected ever since Creed 3 this year and it looks like they are about to show up big time.

Equalizer 3 and Little Mermaid say hello 

 

But Black (not urban) women in particular haven’t had much of anything in their wheelhouse since TLM (except for horror), with BPWF and Woman King before that. So do agree there is a bit of starved audience effect in play here. I’ve just been cautioning that Xmas Day tracking is not likely representative of the overall demand 

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belblazer Box Office Gold

belblazer

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, dallas said:

Where are these numbers coming from lol? I don't think tracking suggests a $30M opening at all. Unless BOP has different samples. 🤷‍♂️

These are the numbers that we are expecting for several months. Shazam 2 had $3.6M previews and $30M OW as well.

 

It can still be less... or more. We don't know. It's just a projection.

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Bob Train Box Office Gold

Bob Train

Posted
Posted

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-and-migration/

 

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
12/1/2023 Godzilla Minus One $5,000,000 – $9,000,000   $9,000,000 – $18,000,000   Toho International
12/1/2023 Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé $27,000,000 – $36,000,000   $40,000,000 – $80,000,000   AMC Theatres Distribution
12/1/2023 The Shift $3,000,000 – $7,000,000   $6,000,000 – $21,000,000   Angel Studios
12/1/2023 Silent Night $4,000,000 – $9,000,000   $10,000,000 – $27,000,000   Lionsgate
12/8/2023 The Boy and the Heron         GKIDS
12/8/2023 Eileen (Wide Expansion; Platform Dec. 1)         NEON
12/8/2023 Poor Things (Limited)         Disney / Searchlight Pictures
12/15/2023 American Fiction (Limited)         MGM / MRC
12/15/2023 Concrete Utopia (Wide Expansion; NY+LA on Dec. 😎         Lotte Entertainment
12/15/2023 Wonka $25,000,000 – $35,000,000   $125,000,000 – $210,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
12/22/2023 All of Us Strangers (Limited)         Disney / Searchlight Pictures
12/22/2023 American Fiction (Expansion)         MGM / MRC
12/22/2023 Anyone But You         Sony / Columbia Pictures
12/22/2023 Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $32,000,000 – $42,000,000   $105,000,000 – $168,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
12/22/2023 The Iron Claw         A24
12/22/2023 Migration $25,000,000 – $30,000,000   $140,000,000 – $250,000,000   Universal Pictures / Illumination
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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

Posted
Posted

Quorum Updates

Eileen T-15: 13.71%

The Color Purple T-32: 40.81%

Night Swim T-43: 22.07%

The Beekeeper T-50: 26.6%

Mean Girls T-50: 33.48%

Garfield T-183: 43.86%

Ballerina T-197: 18.48%

A Quiet Place: Day One T-218: 26.31%

 

Godzilla Minus One T-8: 21.67% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

 

Silent Night T-8: 32.35% Awareness

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 21% chance of 10M

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YachtyLogs Straight-to-DVD

YachtyLogs

Posted
Posted
On 11/23/2023 at 1:15 PM, YachtyLogs said:

WONKA

T-22

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

7/1245 - (0.56%)

 

New sold: 2

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 9

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

 

Two new sales is basically a Thanksgiving feast for this movie, in this area at least. 

WONKA

T-21

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

7/1245 - (0.56%)

 

New sold: 0

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 9

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

 

No new sales for any of the movies today. Might be a Thanksgiving lag. 

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YachtyLogs Straight-to-DVD

YachtyLogs

Posted
Posted
On 11/23/2023 at 1:16 PM, YachtyLogs said:

AQUAMAN 2

T-28

 

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

19/2861 - (0.66%)

 

New sold: 2

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 0

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

 

Still limpin' along here. 

AQUAMAN 2

T-27

 

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

 

19/2861 - (0.66%)

 

New sold: 0

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 0

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

 

As I said with Wonka, no new sales today. 

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