The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[dallas]

Christmas Day

 

The Color Purple - 894 tickets sold

Wonka - 293 tickets sold

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - 102 tickets sold

Migration - 66 tickets sold

[Mojoguy]

1 hour ago, dallas said:

Christmas Day

 

The Color Purple - 894 tickets sold

Wonka - 293 tickets sold

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - 102 tickets sold

Migration - 66 tickets sold

Huh. One of these things is not like the others.

[CJohn]

2 hours ago, dallas said:

Christmas Day

 

The Color Purple - 894 tickets sold

Wonka - 293 tickets sold

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - 102 tickets sold

Migration - 66 tickets sold

Sad for Migration but at least Color Purple and Wonka are saving Christmas.

[poweranimals]

Makes sense that families would be more likely to go for Wonka than Aquaman.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-3]

1086/18705 (5.81% sold) [+156 tickets] 134 showtimes

 

1.21341x TSS at T-3                       [5.62m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
0.50000x Black Adam at T-3        [3.80m]
1.55587x Shazam 2 at T-3            [5.29m]
0.24355x AtSV at T-3                    [4.23m]
0.45006x The Flash at T-3           [4.37m]

1.72930x Blue Beetle at T-3         [5.71m]

====

 

So before I say anything else, I accidentally punched in the T-3 numbers for The Suicide Squad and Across the Spider-Verse in my comps last night. 🤡

 

Ooopise.  🤡  🤡  🤡

 

(the figures in the quoted post have now been corrected  [T-4 TSS: 5.74m | T-4 AtSV: 4.09m])

((I blame the fact that I don't often do Q&D reports for T-4 as I tend to wait 'till T-3 or T-2 and that slipped me up slightly)

 

So with the corrected comps, not much of a change.  In fact a couple of the comps might be inching up ever so slightly.  Sacto could just be over-performing for a DC flick for once though, so who knows.

 

I did Q&Ds for Blue Beetle starting at T-2, but since I gave the daily sales pace, I was able to reverse engineer it.  I'll go ahead and keep it for the last couple of reports.

 

Either way, not collapsing here.  Yet.

 

 

 

 

Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-2]

1268/19908 (6.37% sold) [+182 tickets] 146 showtimes

 

1.19397x TSS at T-2                    [5.53m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
0.49358x Black Adam at T-2     [3.75m]
1.56737x Shazam 2 at T-2          [5.33m]
0.23468x AtSV at T-2                 [4.07m]
0.44933x The Flash at T-2         [4.36m]
1.60101x Blue Beetle at T-2        [5.28m]

 

===

 

Still looking like 4m+, locally. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

 

As ever thus for films of this size though, proof is in the pudding last two days of pre-sales.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-3, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 174

New Sales since last update: 38

Growth: 28%

Showtimes: 23

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 27/5

Early Evening: 120/9

Late Evening: 27/9

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 34/6

Dolby:  10/1

IMAX: 29/3

IMAX 3D: 39/3

4dx: 10/3

VIP 3D: 2/2

VIP: 50/2

Regular 3D: 0/3

 

Comps

0.305x of The Marvels for $2.0M

0.539x of HG:BoSS for $3.1M

Avg: $2.6M

 

Ticket per showtime comp

 

2.12x Blue Beetle for $7.0M

 

A very solid day. Made ground on all comps. At the growth we're seeing, I think getting to the $3M range is doable. If reviews are bad, it could hurt walk ups.

 

I actually heard a radio ad for this yesterday. I think it's the first piece of marketing I've come across for it. I also think that WB film trio is going to boost sales. I'm guessing it'll be the Tuesday sales that see the biggest benefit as people watch this and the others on the cheapest option to get that deal.

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-2, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 233

New Sales since last update: 59

Growth: 34%

Showtimes: 23

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 36/5

Early Evening: 156/9

Late Evening: 41/9

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 49/6

Dolby:  14/1

IMAX: 35/3

IMAX 3D: 50/3

4dx: 12/3

VIP 3D: 4/2

VIP: 63/2

Regular 3D: 0/3

 

Comps

0.366x of The Marvels for $2.4M

0.638x of HG:BoSS for $3.7M

0.193x of FNAF for $2.0M

1.96x of Wonka for $6.9M

Avg: $3.7M

 

Ticket per showtime comp

 

2.21x Blue Beetle for $7.3M

 

Another good day. I've added back FNAF as a comp and added Wonka. Marvels isn't serving as a good proxy, with a very different growth curve, so might as well throw in everything I have right now.

 

It's also staying on the same growth curve as Blue Beetle, but at a higher volume.

 

Overall, a pretty good turnaround.

 

On another note, full showtimes are up for Christmas Day now. The Color Purple is playing in most theatres, but not the two closest to me unfortunately. It's also limited to one screen in all but 2-3 theatres, and in those situations, the second screen is a tiny 40 person or so auditorium.

 

 

[M37]

Looking over sales numbers and daily patterns for previous years ...

 

Very Early Christmas Day & Weekend Estimates

1. Color Purple $16-$20M+ Xmas Day

2. Wonka $8-$10M+ / $24-$30M 4-day

3. Aquaman 2 $7-$9M / $30-$37M 4-day

4. Migration $6-$8M / $18-$24M 4-day

5. Boys in the Boat $2-$3M Xmas day

 

TCP - have already spilled a lot of bytes on this one, think $20M+ is possible, but I'm leaning towards the under, limited by on capacity and heavy metro/big market skew

Wonka - probably loses the weekend/4-day to Aqua, but should be the clear #2 from that point forward

Aqua2 = $3.5-$4M preview, roughly 6-7x, Xmas day should make about the same or slightly more than Sat. I think the general DC fan apathy is going to make this more walk-up friendly, not completely crash (closer to Blue Beetle than say Flash)

Migration = ~$1M preview, fuzzy on IM, but like 12-16? Xmas day should be in range of +25% better than Sat

Boys in the Boat is probably the best of the other openers, but there will likely be some clustering below the top 4 (that I'm not inclined to dissect much further)

[filmlover]

'Aquaman 2' Box Office Opening Weekend Projections: Will Sequel Flop? (variety.com)

 

Aquaman 2: $35-40M 4-day

Wonka: $21-23M expected

Migration: $12-15M 4-day

The Iron Claw: $5-6M 4-day

Anyone But You: similar single digits as above

[TwoMisfits]

TMobile and Atom offering a Christmas present next week - $5 off ANY movie, so it should be a widespread benefit for a week+, not actually targeting any movie, but hopefully helping get some folks off the couch and in with fewer blockbusters this season...

 

Starts Dec 26...

[charlie Jatinder]

19 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

Wonka : 20M+ 4 Days ( which is super low)

30-35M 4 days easy

[el sid]

The Color Purple, counted yesterday for Monday, December 25. 6 days left.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 454 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 120 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 52 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 56 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 84 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 283 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 269 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.318.

Comps (I have quite good comps but did only count in the week where the films were released; all comps counted for Friday): Respect (2.95M true Friday) had on Wednesday (= 4 days left for TCP to increase the margin) 129 sold tickets,
Cats (2.05M) had on Monday (= 2 days left for TCP) 150,
The Woman King (5.1M) had on Monday (= 2 days left for TCP) 155 (but good jumps till Thursday),

West Side Story (3.3M) had on Tuesday (= 3 days left for TCP) 407,
In the Heights (5M OD including previews) had on Monday (= 2 days left for TCP) 582
and After Death (2.1M OD including previews) had on Wednesday (= 4 days left for TCP) 167 sold tickets.

So the range goes from ca. 10-30M OD with each time some days left (30M isn't realistic because it will lose in the comps which did not have many presales on Monday but good jumps till Thursday).
If I take WSS as comp which I think didn't have good walk-ups (so kind of a worst case scenario) and project that TCP will have ca. 1.600 sold tickets (100 sold tickets/day, a rather conservative guess) with also 3 days left it would point to 13.2M OD for TCP.
But if I take Respect which finally had 247 sold tickets and project that TCP will finally have ca. 1.800 sold tickets it would be 21.5M OD for TCP. So a very wide range at the moment.

I will count it again of course, with less speculation.

 

[Eric the Minion]

Quorum Updates

Night Swim T-16: 29.44%

The Book of Clarence T-23: 18.62%

The Beekeeper T-23: 33.02%

Mean Girls T-23: 44.7%

Madame Web T-56: 26.21%

Dune Part Two T-72: 39.18%

 

Anyone But You T-2: 31.93% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 24% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-2: 63.14% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 94% chance of 40M, 83% chance of 50M, 72% chance of 60M, 55% chance of 70M, 39% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 80% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 100M

 

The Iron Claw T-2: 29.8% Awareness

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Migration T-2: 43.78% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M

[Shawn Robbins]

Hi Everyone,

 

This is tough to write. My loved ones and I are mourning the passing of a very beloved family member extraordinarily close to us in ways I cannot describe. I am taking some time away over the holidays to heal during this difficult time.

 

You will probably notice forecasts on BOP to be lighter and less detailed than usual during this time, which is why I am posting this here to let you all know in case anyone asks about it over the next couple of weeks. I will likely not be replying to any mentions or logging on during that time. I hope to return shortly after the new year begins.

 

Thank you all in advance for understanding. Please take time to cherish your own loved ones during the holidays and all of the time.

 

Warmly,

Shawn

[DAJK]

Just now, Shawn Robbins said:

Hi Everyone,

 

This is tough to write. My loved ones and I are mourning the passing of a very beloved family member extraordinarily close to us in ways I cannot describe. I am taking some time away over the holidays to heal during this difficult time.

 

You will probably notice forecasts on BOP to be lighter and less detailed than usual during this time, which is why I am posting this here to let you all know in case anyone asks about it over the next couple of weeks. I will likely not be replying to any mentions or logging on during that time. I hope to return shortly after the new year begins.

 

Thank you all in advance for understanding. Please take time to cherish your own loved ones during the holidays and all of the time.

 

Warmly,

Shawn

Much love to you and your family. Take care!

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/19/2023 at 5:48 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	125	86	589	21148	2.79

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		444	65	75.38
MTC1:		345	47	58.57
Marcus:		103	14	17.49
Alamo:		40	-1	6.79
Other chains:		101	26	17.15

 

Comps:

0.26x FNAF: $2.66 Million

1.15x Wonka: $4.04 Million

0.33x The Marvels: $2.16 Million

1.64x Blue Beetle: $5.41 Million 

 

Average: $3.57 Million

 

Holding pretty steady, buncha new screens and seats added

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	129	156	745	21644	3.44

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		535	91	71.81
MTC1:		404	59	54.23
Marcus:		133	30	17.85
Alamo:		50	10	6.71
Other chains:		158	57	21.21

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	26.49
3-Day:	73.66

 

Comps (1 and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.28x FNAF: $2.87 Million (17%, 62%)

1.2x Wonka: $4.2 Million (21%, 69%)

0.34x The Marvels: $2.27 Million (20%, 56%)

1.62x Blue Beetle: $5.33 Million (28%, 95%)

 

Average: $3.67 Million

 

Very good day, this is picking up quite nicely. I believe Blue Beetle underindexed heavily because of the lack of Latino diversity here, and I am balancing bad comps all around, but seeing these really good growth rates gives me good hopes for its walk-ups. I'll set my flag at $3.9 Million, +/- 0.3. (But again, I really should stop making predictions without T-0 data, I just can't help myself!)

 

Also, and most importantly, sending a lot of love in this group chat to Shawn and everyone on here ❤️ 

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/19/2023 at 5:52 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Migration (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	114	64	233	14291	1.63

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		34	5	14.59
MTC1:		81	28	34.76
Marcus:		36	4	15.45
Alamo:		24	5	10.3
Other chains:		92	27	39.48

 

Comps:

1.18x Trolls Band Together: $1.53 Million

0.69x Wish (TUE): $1.24 Million

0.55x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.71 Million

 

Average: $1.49 Million

 

Methinks there might be some kind of artificial inflation happening here since I believe most schools are out by Thursday in the Twin Cities (not mine though of course  ). I wonder if Orlando or other markets might still be in school by then. No denying this has been doing great here these last final days

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Migration (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	115	71	304	14344	2.12

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		40	6	13.16
MTC1:		104	23	34.21
Marcus:		47	11	15.46
Alamo:		24	0	7.89
Other chains:		129	37	42.43

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	30.47
3-Day:	145.16

 

Comps:

1.18x Trolls Band Together: $1.53 Million (30%, 101%)

0.71x Wish (TUE): $1.27 Million (27%, 65%)

0.51x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.57 Million (47%, 115%)

 

Average: $1.46 Million

 

Again, want to reiterate most schools are out, which if that isn't true for most of the country, it might skew things a bit here. But... this has had a really solid week? Ends with a slightly higher PLF percentage than Trolls, but likely a non-negligent difference matinee tickets because of the winter break aspect, so I will go with a bold (compared to other numbers on here it seems) prediction of $1.35 million, +/- 0.2.

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/19/2023 at 6:00 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Anyone But You (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	64	37	139	4934	2.82

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		68	15	48.92
Marcus:		23	5	16.55
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		48	17	34.53

 

Comps:

1.13x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $620k

0.8x Joy Ride (w/ EA): $880k

0.22x Don't Worry Darling: $670k

 

Average: $720k

 

The Iron Claw (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	44	29	151	3561	4.24

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		71	3	47.02
Marcus:		2	2	1.32
Alamo:		40	6	26.49
Other chains:		38	18	25.17

 

Comps:

0.34x Asteroid City: $375k

0.41x The Creator: $560k

 

Average: $467.5k

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Anyone But You (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	66	85	224	5082	4.41

 

Spoiler

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		92	24	41.07
Marcus:		47	24	20.98
Alamo:		6	6	2.68
Other chains:		79	31	35.27

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	61.15
3-Day:	261.29

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

1.51x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $830k (20%, 85%)

0.79x Joy Ride (w/ EA): $870k

1.52x Joy Ride (just THU): ??? --> EA was never reported, but assuming previews of $800-900K: $1.21-1.37 Million (38%, 130

0.26x Don't Worry Darling: $800k

 

And for the laugh: 1.45x No Hard Feelings--> $3.11 Million hehehehe

 

Average (original 3 comps): $835k

 

This just had an Insidious level T-2 to T-1, and I'm not saying to take that NHF comp seriously, but I have been wondering if the comps that are being used can really capture a late breakout like this. For now I'll once again go bold and call it at $1 Million, +/. 0.2

 

The Iron Claw (T-1)

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	46	29	180	3675	4.9

 

Spoiler

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		78	7	43.33
Marcus:		6	4	3.33
Alamo:		45	5	25
Other chains:		51	13	28.33

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	19.21
3-Day:	71.43

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.35x Asteroid City: $380k (16%, 105%)

The Creator: Missed

 

Let's just say $400k, +/- 100 and call it a day. Oof, sorry for the wall of text, and happy to be done with four tracks at the same time!

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
195	1603	39364	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

207

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(1.310x) of Blue Beetle $4.32M Previews

(0.398x) of The Flash $3.86M Previews

(0.474x) of The Marvels $3.13M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.77M

 

Well, it could be worse. Its still gradually increasing against all comps 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
200	1855	40183	4.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

252

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(1.220x) of Blue Beetle $4.03M Previews

(0.399x) of The Flash $3.87M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.95M

 

i'm feeling O/U $4M previews right now. A pretty good recovery all things considering 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
179	372	33659	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

51

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.729x) of Trolls 3 $948k Previews

(0.361x) of Elemental $867k Previews

Comps AVG: $908k

 

Improving just a bit

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
179	457	33659	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

85

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.849x) of Trolls 3 $1.10M Previews

(0.364x) of Elemental $875k Previews

Comps AVG: $988k

 

Looks like $1m previews 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	239	27595	0.87%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

27

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.984x) of Greek Wedding 3 $541k Previews

(1.583x) of Priscilla $712k Previews

Comps AVG: $627k

 

*Not counting EA sales* 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	279	27595	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.938x) of Greek Wedding 3 $516k Previews

(1.353x) of Priscilla $609k Previews

Comps AVG: $563k

 

*Not counting EA sales*