The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Madame Web long range will be 25-35 (3-day weekend only, minding it has a 6-day window technically).

 

Really curious to see if the marketing team can push that higher in the weeks ahead. I've heard ads aren't reflective of the movie itself, but I have no idea personally having not seen it.

Wow, well that low range is more than what I guessed for the 6 day. It’s a hard one to predict. 😂

Edited January 18 by Krissykins

[Shawn Robbins]

26 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Wow, well that low range is more than what I guessed for the 6 day. It’s a hard one to predict. 😂

You may be right! I wouldn't take much off the table. It's a weird calendar alignment and I could very easily see 25 being too high if Morbius-level reviews hit it.

 

To be honest, the pinpoint is on the low end in Birds of Prey territory. I could be missing something, again, but marketing is marketing and it ain't working yet as far as I think most of us can tell. I'm really giving a benefit of the doubt (and whatever advantage the dead winter market gives it) on the high end of the ranges

[dallas]

I don't see Madame Web opening even that high tbh. I'm expecting a 3-day of $20M, give or take a few million

[John2015]

On 1/17/2024 at 9:10 PM, M37 said:

ISS is distributed by Bleecker Street, whose wide releases usually top out at just over 2,000 locations. (And who also haven’t had a $10M grossing domestic release since … 2017!)

 

A TC and OW around Unsane is what I have penciled in 

Bleecker Street will be very happy if ISS can gross around $10 million totally....

[Cmasterclay]

Hot take - unless Bob Marley is horrific (which it could be, it looks pretty bad!), I think people on here have been underestimating it for quite awhile. Iconic artist with as much cultural cache as anyone, trailer views and Quorum support the anecdotal interest I've heard for it, dead market. I see it doing 75m+ domestic total if it can get over 60% on RT.

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/11/2024 at 9:29 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	43	9	48	8206	0.58

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		37	6	77.08
MTC1:		34	11	70.83
Marcus:		2	0	4.17
Alamo:		9	0	18.75
Other chains:		3	-2	6.25

 

Comps:

0.18x KOFM: $480k

0.0503x Oppy: $525k

 

Average: $500k

 

After a not bad first day, this has done absolutely nothing at all. I'll remove the Oppy comp next update and add The Creator, since I think it's silly comparing it with something like that, but just wanted to show that this is doing really bad at this point 

 

Still quite a bit of time to improve though! 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	43	35	83	8206	1.01

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		70	33	84.34
MTC1:		63	29	75.9
Marcus:		2	0	2.41
Alamo:		15	6	18.07
Other chains:		3	0	3.61

 

Comps:

0.25x KOFM: $640k

0.73x The Creator: $985k

0.14x MI7: $990k

0.12x Indiana Jones: $830k

 

Average: $860k

 

Napoleon comp added next update. I welcome other ideas for comps, thinking about male-skewing movies this is what came to mind, but definitely open to others that are more fitting! Still not looking good, but at least it's trending up.

[abracadabra1998]

I just noticed both One Love and Madame Web are coming out on Wednesday, February 14. Does this mean Tuesday previews (and the dreaded Tuesday discount) again?

[TheFlatLannister]

5 hours ago, M37 said:

Have a hunch walk-ups will be more on par with Mean Girls than Night Swim, put the number more in the $400K range

Walkups are pretty bad in Miami. Not too shocking though. 

 

Hourly count:

	Night swim
	Seats sold
10:00 PM	245
9:00 PM	334
8:00 PM	343

 

	Mean girls
	Seats sold
10:00 PM	233
9:00 PM	278
8:00 PM	332

 

 

	I.S.S
	Seats sold
10:00 PM	7
9:00 PM	117
8:00 PM	93

Edited January 19 by TheFlatLannister

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Hot take - unless Bob Marley is horrific (which it could be, it looks pretty bad!), I think people on here have been underestimating it for quite awhile. Iconic artist with as much cultural cache as anyone, trailer views and Quorum support the anecdotal interest I've heard for it, dead market. I see it doing 75m+ domestic total if it can get over 60% on RT.

I dunno, buzz surrounding it feels awfully quiet. It reminds me of the Whitney biopic more than anything else honestly (down to the awkward, zero confidence title).

 

It probably won't make as little as that did but a total similar to what The Color Purple is (disappointingly) looking to finish with feels like the best case scenario here.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

I just noticed both One Love and Madame Web are coming out on Wednesday, February 14. Does this mean Tuesday previews (and the dreaded Tuesday discount) again?

 

I've been checking off and on for Madame Web, but since tickets won't be on sale for another couple of weeks, don't know if we're gonna know until we start seeing showtimes pop up.  Perhaps @misterpepp might know.

 

FWIW, took a look at One Love and it doesn't seem to have any showtimes on Tuesday.  Not at any of the cities I randomly checked at any rate (and I checked quite a few across the country).  Doesn't mean they can't change their minds about it, naturally.

[emoviefan]

God February is going to be bad along with these last two weeks of January . Dune 2 might be able to break out big just due to pent up demand  alone. 

Edited January 19 by emoviefan

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, M37 said:

Have a hunch walk-ups will be more on par with Mean Girls than Night Swim, put the number more in the $400K range

 

Not So Hot Take:

 

I.S.S. looks like the kind of film which would have been tired in 2014 or 2004, never mind 2024. Even by the mid aughts "Die Hard on an X" (or variations thereof) were already losing steam rapidly.   Might be unfair to put this in the "Die Hard on an X" category, but it sure doesn't look like it had all that much to go for it.

 

*checks RT*

 

Huh.  Much higher tomato score than I would have thought.  Not that it's all that great, but mid/high 60s is still pretty cromulent.  Maybe it'll find an audience with the passage of time/WOM.  But have to say the initial lack of interest in this film isn't surprising to me in the least.

Edited January 19 by Porthos

[misterpepp]

48 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I've been checking off and on for Madame Web, but since tickets won't be on sale for another couple of weeks, don't know if we're gonna know until we start seeing showtimes pop up.  Perhaps @misterpepp might know.

 

FWIW, took a look at One Love and it doesn't seem to have any showtimes on Tuesday.  Not at any of the cities I randomly checked at any rate (and I checked quite a few across the country).  Doesn't mean they can't change their minds about it, naturally.

 

Don't know for certain, but I believe Madame Web should have Tuesday previews. Bob Marley looking right now like it won't, but that doesn't seem for-sure yet.

 

Speaking of Marley, I've heard the 21st date for tickets might move. I noted it was on a Sunday, thinking to tie into a big ad push for a football game that night, but perhaps there's a shift to be made. Will update if I hear anything different.

[M37]

10 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

I just noticed both One Love and Madame Web are coming out on Wednesday, February 14. Does this mean Tuesday previews (and the dreaded Tuesday discount) again?

The last time V-Day was on a Wednesday in 2018, there was no major opening for that day, with 50SF (among others) going the Friday before, and a certain MCU movie opting for the Friday 2/16 opening. The previous time was back in 2007, when there were Wed/V-Day openings, but a much different landscape for previews

 

For the recent Thursday V-Day openings, Alita had previews on Wed evening, so did Die Hard in 2013 (albeit at 10pm, because Fox), while Safe Haven appears to have not. Meanwhile, Sony did not run full previews for Far From Home when it opened on Tue 7/02 (midnights only), and I could see them skipping here for MW given the similar long holiday/extended opening frame (and also perhaps not wanting to let potentially poor WOM out before they have to)

 

tl;dr - could go either way on whether there are Tue 2/13 previews for any 2/14 opening film

 

Spoiler

Let me just add that the 2010-2017 stretch for the weekend before or of Valentine's Day was kinda ridiculous, both in direct and counter-programming releases. Three day totals shown, but often it was really a 4-day with either President's Day Mon or V-Day falling on Thur or Mon

 

• 2010 ($183M) = Valentine's Day, Percy Jackson Wolfman
• 2011 ($128M) = Just Go With It, Bieber, Gnomeo
• 2012 ($168M) = Safe House, The Vow, Journey 2
• 2013 ($121M) = Die Hard, Safe Haven, Identity Theif, Escape
• 2014 ($156M) = Lego Movie, About Last Night, RoboCop
• 2015 ($196M) = Fifty Shades, Kingsman
• 2016 ($216M) = Deadpool, Panda, Be Single, Zoolander 2
• 2017 ($171M) = Lego Batman, 50S Darker, Wick 2

 

After that, it fell off, with 2018-2020 making only $114M, 105M, and $140M (Sonic) respectively, as IMO the Date Movie type film has lost a lot of audience to streaming, leaving mostly family and action films, and CBMs starting to target that window

 

And then of course post-pandemic, the first two months of the year have mostly been a wasteland of releases in general, including the V-Day holiday

 

Edited January 19 by M37

[whatsupdoc]

The Quorum

6-Weeks Out Film Tracking Report

 

Opening Weekend Forecasts:

ISS: $3M - $5M (flat)

ARGYLLE: $15M - $18M (up)

LISA FRANKENSTEIN: $5M - $7M (flat)

BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE: $18M - $21M FSS ONLY (flat)

MADAME WEB: $17M - $22M FSS ONLY (flat)

DRIVE AWAY DOLLS: $4M - $6M (down)

ORDINARY ANGELS: $8M - $11M (up)

DUNE: PART TWO: $42M - $49M (NEW)

 

https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/6WOFTR-01.19.24.pdf

 

[poweranimals]

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Not So Hot Take:

 

I.S.S. looks like the kind of film which would have been tired in 2014 or 2004, never mind 2024. Even by the mid aughts "Die Hard on an X" (or variations thereof) were already losing steam rapidly.   Might be unfair to put this in the "Die Hard on an X" category, but it sure doesn't look like it had all that much to go for it.

 

*checks RT*

 

Huh.  Much higher tomato score than I would have thought.  Not that it's all that great, but mid/high 60s is still pretty cromulent.  Maybe it'll find an audience with the passage of time/WOM.  But have to say the initial lack of interest in this film isn't surprising to me in the least.

Kinda odd that there's no audience score for this one yet.

[Eric Lasagna]

Quorum Updates

Argylle T-15: 30.09%

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-71: 33.14%

Civil War T-85: 24.69%

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare T-92: 17.34%

Back to Black T-113: 22.38%

The Strangers: Chapter 1 T-120: 23.86%

Furiosa T-127: 24.44%

The Garfield Movie T-127: 40.94%

Despicable Me 4 T-167: 42.86%

 

I.S.S. T-1: 27.95% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

[Driver]

14 hours ago, filmlover said:

I dunno, buzz surrounding it feels awfully quiet. It reminds me of the Whitney biopic more than anything else honestly (down to the awkward, zero confidence title).

 

It probably won't make as little as that did but a total similar to what The Color Purple is (disappointingly) looking to finish with feels like the best case scenario here.

 

So strange how Color Purple ended up performing like a Madea movie

[Driver]

1 hour ago, whatsupdoc said:

The Quorum

6-Weeks Out Film Tracking Report

 

Opening Weekend Forecasts:

ISS: $3M - $5M (flat)

ARGYLLE: $15M - $18M (up)

LISA FRANKENSTEIN: $5M - $7M (flat)

BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE: $18M - $21M FSS ONLY (flat)

MADAME WEB: $17M - $22M FSS ONLY (flat)

DRIVE AWAY DOLLS: $4M - $6M (down)

ORDINARY ANGELS: $8M - $11M (up)

DUNE: PART TWO: $42M - $49M (NEW)

 

https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/6WOFTR-01.19.24.pdf

 

 

So what's happened to the market since last summer? Dune oughta be tracking at 60 mil at least.

 

Lisa Frankenstein would've done well on streaming. If they wanted theatrical they needed bigger stars. 

Edited January 19 by Driver

[Tinalera]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I've been checking off and on for Madame Web, but since tickets won't be on sale for another couple of weeks, don't know if we're gonna know until we start seeing showtimes pop up.  Perhaps @misterpepp might know.

 

FWIW, took a look at One Love and it doesn't seem to have any showtimes on Tuesday.  Not at any of the cities I randomly checked at any rate (and I checked quite a few across the country).  Doesn't mean they can't change their minds about it, naturally.

With ISS the only way I even knew it was a thing at all was when I went to the website to check for movies and I was like "Oh okay", Ive seen next to no build for it at all (at least in my experience cant speak for others)