The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Inceptionzq]

7 minutes ago, Maggie said:

That doesn't seem too good, does it? DUNE 1 OW was 41M. We have hopes for somthing close to 100M for Dune 2

This is only about 3 hours of sales for Dune Part 2 vs Part 1's 8 hours of sales. Plus, like I mentioned, it doesn't include the early access sales (almost 500 sold) which likely slows the initial rush for Thursday.

[M37]

30 minutes ago, Maggie said:

That doesn't seem too good, does it? DUNE 1 OW was 41M. We have hopes for somthing close to 100M for Dune 2

First, its an 8 hour sales window for P1 vs a few hours less for P2, and sales are nearly even for just Thursday, not including the IMAX EA/sneak preview shows, which was also at 400+ for this market sample as of last night

 

This is exactly what I meant by the EA exclusive window going to mess with early sales comps

 

So its running ahead of 1:1 for Thursday, if we assume Those EA shows are up say 50% in last 24 hours, would be approx 2.5x in total, take the average of both for ~1.75x, or roughly $9M early total preview estimate. Seems totally reasonable with where expectations for OW are landing

[Presuming this back of the napkin math holds true for full update]

Edited January 26 by M37

[iEnri]

9M early would be what? 80M? Or 70M?

[M37]

31 minutes ago, iEnri said:

9M early would be what? 80M? Or 70M?

$60-$70M? Extra day of EA is likely to drag down IM a bit 

 

But that’s assuming 1) those ballpark numbers hold and 2) a straight average between with EA and w/o is going to be an accurate comp value, rather than just a fuzzy math estimate. Much larger MOE there, probably going to have to wait a week or so to get a better grasp of what  range initial preview sales are pointing to 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 1/25/2024 at 12:49 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA

 

DUNE 2 IMAX EA

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
26	860	5707	15.1%

 

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

No Disney springs showing listed yet, so numbers will drastically increase once that is added

 

This is very good, indeed. Expecting ~3k seats sold by T-0 so that would nearly triple Mean girls EA sales

FLORIDA

 

DUNE 2 IMAX EA

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
26	1274	5707	22.3%

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Super strong day 2 

[iEnri]

I think EA will also help WOM a lot for the opening weekend

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-34

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
474	2024	93725	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

858

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

 

(1.061x) of RoTB $9.33M 

(0.591x) of Indy 5 $4.26M 

(1.726x) of Wonka $6.04M 

Comps AVG: $6.54M

 

I really don't want to be a downer, but sales just seem okay so far? really no signs of a breakout yet 

Edited January 26 by TheFlatLannister

[lorddemaxus]

Nvm Edited January 26 by lorddemaxus

[HummingLemon496]

5 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-34

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
474	2024	93725	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

858

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

 

(1.061x) of RoTB $9.33M 

(0.591x) of Indy 5 $4.26M 

(1.726x) of Wonka $6.04M 

Comps AVG: $6.54M

 

I really don't want to be a downer, but sales just seem okay so far? really no signs of a breakout yet 

[abracadabra1998]

21 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (Day 1 and 1/2-ish of EA sales):

Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters

4

392

392

1082

36.23

 

Don't really have any good comps here. Barbie at T-28 (so I think its second day of sales? Not super sure) was at:

3 shows, 432/555, 77.84% 

 

That was Dolby vs IMAX here, so more capacity. Either way, seems like it is very similar to @Inceptionzq's Denver numbers, even if not quite as hot as @Porthos's Sacto sample. Quite interested to see in tomorrow's Day 1 report just how much demand is burned

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-34, Day 1, taken at 6 PM):

Day: T-34, T-30	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	74	503	503	14285	3.52
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	89	481	1082	44.45
TOTALS:	78	592	984	15367	6.4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		453	453	90.06
MTC1:		302	302	60.04
Marcus:		31	31	6.16
Alamo:		104	104	20.68
Other chains:		66	66	13.12

(Only Thursday preview sales accounted for in chart)

 

Comps:

Day 1 Comp- 1.1x The Marvels: $7.23 Million

Oppy Comp (at T-35): 0.66x: $6.96 Million

 

Honestly, not bad at all I don't think, especially with so much demand burned off by early sales (EA is nearly at Thursday previews level rn). Gonna be following the advice of others on this one, with so many variables at the moment.

[Menor the Destroyer]

46 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-34

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
474	2024	93725	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

858

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

 

(1.061x) of RoTB $9.33M 

(0.591x) of Indy 5 $4.26M 

(1.726x) of Wonka $6.04M 

Comps AVG: $6.54M

 

I really don't want to be a downer, but sales just seem okay so far? really no signs of a breakout yet 

Is the ROTB comp previews+EA?

[TheFlatLannister]

46 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Is the ROTB comp previews+EA?

without EA. ROTB had crazy strong growth here so I expect Dune comp to fall a bit 

[TheFlatLannister]

58 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-34, Day 1, taken at 6 PM):

Day: T-34, T-30	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	74	503	503	14285	3.52
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	89	481	1082	44.45
TOTALS:	78	592	984	15367	6.4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		453	453	90.06
MTC1:		302	302	60.04
Marcus:		31	31	6.16
Alamo:		104	104	20.68
Other chains:		66	66	13.12

(Only Thursday preview sales accounted for in chart)

 

Comps:

Day 1 Comp- 1.1x The Marvels: $7.23 Million

Oppy Comp (at T-35): 0.66x: $6.96 Million

 

Honestly, not bad at all I don't think, especially with so much demand burned off by early sales (EA is nearly at Thursday previews level rn). Gonna be following the advice of others on this one, with so many variables at the moment.

Piggybacking off of these comps

 

The Marvels (0.530x) $3.50M

Oppy (0.962x) $10.11M

 

Average: $6.81M

 

*Note*

The Marvels had terrible growth so the comp should rise quickly, and Oppy had crazy strong growth (thanks Barbenheimer) so that comp will fall

[keysersoze123]

MCU movies are horrible comp for Dune. So ignore them for sure. Oppenheimer, Wonka and many other movies make sense. 

[abracadabra1998]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MCU movies are horrible comp for Dune. So ignore them for sure. Oppenheimer, Wonka and many other movies make sense. 

Just wanted to give a frame of reference for its Day 1 in my market and the movies I track, def not gonna use it for future updates. It also shows that having an Alamo here will skew things for sure, it’s the only reason it’s beating said MCU film in its first day

[Gavin Feng]

 

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

45 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MCU movies are horrible comp for Dune. So ignore them for sure. Oppenheimer, Wonka and many other movies make sense. 

Dune 1 was more presales heavier & frontloaded than 2021 MCU films iirc. Oppy is good comp though, Wonka naah.

 

T-7 Dune was 40K in MTC1 & ended with 95K.

 

Marvels was 56K & ended with 135K.

Eternals, which had abysmal ending was 78K & ended with 185K.

Edited January 27 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune 1 was more presales heavier & frontloaded than 2021 MCU films iirc. Oppy is good comp though, Wonka naah.

That was a direct to streaming from day 1. That makes it limited appeal to mainstream audience when you can see it for free on HBO max. This is nothing like that. Plus no movie should be compared to trash like Marvels. This is going to be be a Rave. That is why I said Oppenheimer. I dont think DV is anywhere near Nolan but Nolan himself marketing the movie will boost this one. Plus Chalamet is coming after Wonka would boost this with GA even though Genre has some limitations. 

[Porthos]

43 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MCU movies are horrible comp for Dune. So ignore them for sure. Oppenheimer, Wonka and many other movies make sense. 

 

FWIW, I'm gonna be very curious as to how John Wick 4 comps out in the first few days locally, even with EA putting a thumb on the scale.  If it wasn't for EA, I'd probably look elsewhere, but for now I'm kinda zeroing in on that being my Anchor Comp.

 

Wick 4 was R-rated, yes.  But the heavy heavy PLF skew for Dune: Part 2 should counterbalance that a bit.  I figure the relative fan rushes and cinephile appeal (if for different segments of Film Twitter) should be at least somewhat similar.

 

As @M37 has noted, the unusual EA (IMAX ONLY and on Sunday) is gonna be mucking with the comps so it really comes down to what compromises one feels comfortable with.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That was a direct to streaming from day 1. That makes it limited appeal to mainstream audience when you can see it for free on HBO max. This is nothing like that. Plus no movie should be compared to trash like Marvels. This is going to be be a Rave. That is why I said Oppenheimer. I dont think DV is anywhere near Nolan but Nolan himself marketing the movie will boost this one. Plus Chalamet is coming after Wonka would boost this with GA even though Genre has some limitations. 

The only MCU title with direct Day & Date streaming in some form is Black Widow. That was 87K and ended with 247K.