The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[el sid]

Fighter, counted ca. 1 hour ago for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 58 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 4 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): ? (3 showtimes and 3 Sell Outs reported, RRR was very popular in this theater and had 97 sold tickets but I still doubt that the Sell Outs are true)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 32 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): no showtimes; 46 sold tickets in the AMC Ahwatukee 24
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 87 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): no showtimes

 

Total tickets sold in 4 theaters: 181.

Comp: RRR (? from previews, 9.5M OW) had also on Thursday for Thursday and counted at the same time 203 sold tickets in 4 theaters (in the AMCs in Miami, Michigan, San Francisco and LA).
Not bad! No idea what weekend result we should expect but everywhere (except for the AMC in Miami) where it gets shows its presales are quite good.

Edited January 25 by el sid

[M37]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I would also think being Sunday at 7pm should mitigate/lessen some of your concerns here as that late of a showing shouldn't pick up as much of the casual movie going crowd.

 

The next big tell will be the True Day 1 sales when all regular showtimes go on sale.  Just how much demand has been burnt off and how well will the PLF showtimes on Thr do?

Yeah, it’s definitely in the grey area, not a true Sat sneak but still not quite a weekday EA. Very unusual day & time choice for these shows (unless I’m missing some obvious connection/reason)

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yeah, it’s definitely in the grey area, not a true Sat sneak but still not quite a weekday EA. Very unusual day & time choice for these shows (unless I’m missing some obvious connection/reason)

 

They are doing the 40th anniversary of Dune on Feb 18...so this is one week later on the same day.  Probably getting folks in the mood for Sundays after football is over Feb 11...

[MrPink]

@Porthos Gonna need daily tracking for the Tenet re-release, thanks.

[Inceptionzq]

Dune 2 early showings at 415/1353 in Denver. Only 4 showings

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, MrPink said:

@Porthos Gonna need daily tracking for the Tenet re-release, thanks.

 

[misterpepp]

"Valentine's Edition" of Anyone But You opens Feb 9

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/21/2024 at 10:10 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	43	16	99	8206	1.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		82	12	82.83
MTC1:		75	12	75.76
Marcus:		4	2	4.04
Alamo:		17	2	17.17
Other chains:		3	0	3.03

 

Comps:

0.26x KOFM: $670k

0.64x The Creator: $870k

0.15x MI7: $1.02 Million

0.13x Indiana Jones: $915k

 

Average: $870k

 

Holding off on the Napoleon comp one more time actually, because of the much smaller window. Basically stayed flat, not good.

 

No sign of One Love tickets starting to sell today.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	43	40	139	8206	1.69

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		113	31	81.29
MTC1:		108	33	77.7
Marcus:		4	0	2.88
Alamo:		18	1	12.95
Other chains:		9	6	6.47

 

Comps:

0.51x Napoleon: $1.53 Million

0.26x KOFM: $675k

0.79x The Creator: $1.06 Million

0.15x MI7: $1.08 Million

0.17x Indiana Jones: $1.22 Million

 

Average: $1.1 Million

 

Average is finally over a million so that's good I guess? It did grow against all comps, so that's a pretty good sign, but it is still highly overindexing at MTC1.

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (Day 1 and 1/2-ish of EA sales):

Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters

4

392

392

1082

36.23

 

Don't really have any good comps here. Barbie at T-28 (so I think its second day of sales? Not super sure) was at:

3 shows, 432/555, 77.84% 

 

That was Dolby vs IMAX here, so more capacity. Either way, seems like it is very similar to @Inceptionzq's Denver numbers, even if not quite as hot as @Porthos's Sacto sample. Quite interested to see in tomorrow's Day 1 report just how much demand is burned

 

[MrPink]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

[dallas]

Argylle

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-7

21 tickets sold (+0)

 

(2.333x) of The Beekeeper - $5.59 Million

(0.139x) of Aquaman 2 - $0.63 Million

COMPS AVG - $3.11 Million

 

Ticket sales stayed flat from yesterday, definitely not a great sign. We'll see how things are looking closer to release but for now I'll go with $2.4M +/- $0.3M

[keysersoze123]

On 1/24/2024 at 8:54 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 Early Shows MTC1 - 8093/55566 174919.23 181 shows

 

its seems to be just Imax and  so MTC2 is irrelevant(I see only 11 shows listed and 200 tickets sold). Lincoln Sq Imax already sold out. Dune had good day 1 sales and so I am not surprised. Since this is just imax, I am expecting good sales for its previews when it opens in 2 days.  

Dune 2 Early Shows MTC1 - 14972/55434 311345.00 181 shows

 

Really strong day 2. Tomorrow we are going to see how previews sell after 2 days of early show sales. I am expecting strong sales as I mentioned earlier today. There are still bunch of shows in smaller markets which can grow as we approach the release date. MTC2 just at 902/3191 14771.35 11 shows. So its irrelevant and will be driven by previews/OW starting tomorrow. 

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 Early Shows MTC1 - 14972/55434 311345.00 181 shows

 

Really strong day 2. Tomorrow we are going to see how previews sell after 2 days of early show sales. I am expecting strong sales as I mentioned earlier today. There are still bunch of shows in smaller markets which can grow as we approach the release date. MTC2 just at 902/3191 14771.35 11 shows. So its irrelevant and will be driven by previews/OW starting tomorrow. 

$100M opening weekend?

[keysersoze123]

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 11761/289079 228667.79 1403 shows

Friday - 9081/548757 166846.75 2594 shows

 

More than the number, the pace is anemic at this point. I hope they release reviews soon to build some hype. Otherwise I am thinking  ~2.5m previews/mid teens OW at this point. 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon496 said:

$100M opening weekend?

wait until tomorrow. We should get the picture where its going. 

[HummingLemon496]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

wait until tomorrow. We should get the picture where its going. 

[emoviefan]

51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 11761/289079 228667.79 1403 shows

Friday - 9081/548757 166846.75 2594 shows

 

More than the number, the pace is anemic at this point. I hope they release reviews soon to build some hype. Otherwise I am thinking  ~2.5m previews/mid teens OW at this point. 

The review embargo does not drop until next wednesday. All to preserve a big twist supposedly. Sacrificing the OW for legs I guess is the strategy. 

[Eric the IF]

Quorum Updates

Challengers T-92: 19.9%

The Fall Guy T-99: 26.01%

Ballerina T-134: 20.17%

Horizon: An American Saga Part 1 T-155: 22.11%

Kraven the Hunter T-218: 27.62%

Beetlejuice 2 T-225: 47.1%

Transformers One T-232: 31.28%

 

Argylle T-8: 31.41% Awareness

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 47% chance of 10M

 

Dune: Part Two T-36: 44.18% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 95% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 59% chance of 40M, 36% chance of 50M, 32% chance of 60M, 18% chance of 90M, 14% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 60% chance of 50M, 40% chance of 60M

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-57: 41.81% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 78% chance of 40M, 61% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 33% chance of 70M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 80% chance of 40M, 60% chance of 60M, 20% chance of 70M

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

The review embargo does not drop until next wednesday. All to preserve a big twist supposedly. Sacrificing the OW for legs I guess is the strategy. 

That sounds more like Apple and Universal know they're sitting on a dud and are trying to slow down the inevitably bad word of mouth as much as they can. I don't buy that "spoiler" excuse in the slightest. This isn't a Marvel movie.

[Porthos]

On 1/24/2024 at 11:58 PM, Porthos said:

So when exactly did tickets go on sale, anyway?  8pm Pacific? [ETA:  misterpepp's timestamp was at 7:30pm local time, so I'll go with that for now]  If so, not nearly enough time for me to do a Day 1 track, even of EA only showtimes.  Plus there's only three theaters locally that are showing it.

 

Still, can give a preview of how it's doing locally:

 

QUICK SACTO SPOT CHECK FOR IMAX EA SHOWINGS OF DUNE 2 (T+4 hours [more or less])

350/814 (43.00% sold) [3 showings]

 

THE FOLLOWING ARE *****NOT****** COMPS!

CAPITAL "N"
CAPITAL "O"
CAPITAL "T"

TRIPLE EXCLAMATION POINT!!!

(yes yes, let reddit know)

 

Dune  [1st full day of sales]:                                394 tickets sold

The Batman [1st full day of *EA ONLY* sales]:  371 tickets sold

Barbie [1st full day of *EA ONLY* sales]:            196 tickets sold

 

----

 

Only have two films the last couple of years which had EA exclusive sales before regular showings went on sale (at least from what I recall) and neither one of them are remotely appropriate. Plus the local TrueIMAX theater is gonna over-index like mad for this film* as this is the exact type of film to draw out the cinephiles out here (Dune over-indexed like mad at that theater as well).

* Currently at approx 65% of all sales so far

 

Still, even with those caveats this is hella impressive for a little more than four hours of sales.

 

Gonna make a Full Day One report tomorrow at the normal time and roll these numbers into them, but I wanted to put it out there that it's doing pretty damn well at the starters gun.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-35 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	3	346	814	468	57.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Last 29 hours-ish

468*

* Tickets went on sale officially at approx 7pm PST yesterday, though there were a smattering of tickets sold before then.  At 11:30pm PST yesterday, D:2 had sold 350 tickets. This sample was taken at 11:40pm PST tonight.

 

NO COMPS AT THE MOMENT DUE TO NUMEROUS FACTORS — HERE ARE A COUPLE OF... OVERVIEWS/BENCHMARKS

 

Overview/Benchmark #1:

	%		Sold That Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Dune D1	118.78		394	394		0/74	11255/11649	3.38%		2915	16.05%
Oppy T-35	75.85		23	617		0/50	6955/7572	8.15%		4621	10.13%

 

Overview/Benchmark #2:

	%		EA Exclusive Sold So Far	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final EA Sold	% of Final
Bats Tue EA	98.53		475	475		0/3	340/815	58.28%		743	62.99%
Barbie EA	238.78		196	196		0/3	177/373	52.55%		400	117.00%

 

=====

 

Don't take anything away from the above, except for, as the saying goes "Entertainment Purposes Only" (as I check, I didn't even bother to give a comp during the EA window for The Batman).

 

But I thought it might be interesting to look at the relative demand burnt off from the EA showtimes for the two films which had exclusive pre-sale EA windows.  Now, it has to be noted that as unexpected as the Barbie EA strength was, there was little indication at the time that Barbie was going to become ***BARBIE!!!***, so that EA sales info only says so much.

 

What's more interesting, in my mind, is the relative percentage of sales of the final EA sold.  The problem here is that The Batman had *TWO* exclusive days: A super limited Tue IMAX Only shows and then a broader Wed ALL PLFs ARE WELCOME EA.

 

That Dune: Part 2 has already hit 63% of the final Tue Only Sales (at the exact same three theaters, I should add) says something interesting.  What exactly that is, I'm still chewing over.  But it's something I'm gonna keep an eye on as time passes.

 

Do have quite a few other thoughts, but I think I'll save them until we get concrete D1 All Sales data.

Edited January 26 by Porthos