The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune 1 was more presales heavier & frontloaded than 2021 MCU films iirc. Oppy is good comp though, Wonka naah.

 

T-7 Dune was 40K in MTC1 & ended with 95K.

 

Marvels was 56K & ended with 135K.

Eternals, which had abysmal ending was 78K & ended with 185K.

 

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That was a direct to streaming from day 1. That makes it limited appeal to mainstream audience when you can see it for free on HBO max. This is nothing like that. Plus no movie should be compared to trash like Marvels. This is going to be be a Rave. That is why I said Oppenheimer. I dont think DV is anywhere near Nolan but Nolan himself marketing the movie will boost this one. Plus Chalamet is coming after Wonka would boost this with GA even though Genre has some limitations. 

 

Dune also had 18 days of pre-sales, and Dune: Part Two almost literally is twice as long, if we factor in the 1.333 days of exclusive EA sales.  Doesn't matter as much for D1 and D2 sales.  Will matter very soon, maybe as soon as D3 or D4 sales.

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The only MCU title with direct Day & Date streaming in some form is Black Widow. That was 87K and ended with 247K.

That was $30 premium. Not free with streaming access. Only movie which was bigger was Five nights at freddys last year. But that blew up with teens who wanted a social experience. 

 

I will check with my high school daughter on Dune buzz but I dont see it doing great there.  Sci-fi drama is not ideal though this is supposedly more action packed.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Dune also had 18 days of pre-sales, and Dune: Part Two almost literally is twice as long

and that's why I used T-7, by then its all common playground.

[dallas]

Very solid start for Dune 2 in my area. No comps yet but I can see this going pretty high, possibly $10M previews including EA

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

and that's why I used T-7, by then its all common playground.

 

I think the greater point here is that the circumstances surrounding the releases of Dune and Dune: Part Two are different enough that looking at how Dune did in its pre-sale run only goes so far.  It def does have value.  But there are enough conflicting variables in play that makes me want to be even more cautious than I normally am when it comes to looking at initial pre-sale data.

 

Hell Dune and Dune: Part Two might even be different enough from each other to be a variable in and of itself if the buzz about D2 having more action than the OG did comes to pass.  And word will def get out on that once the screenings start.

[excel1]

Kylie needs to pimp this on her insta asap 

[dallas]

Argylle

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-6

26 tickets sold (+5) 

11 showtimes

 

(2.60x) of The Beekeeper - $6.24 Million

(0.166x) of Aquaman 2 - $0.75 Million

COMPS AVG - $3.5 Million

 

Solid increase from yesterday. Still surprised that we haven't gotten a second trailer for this. Will probably land somewhere around $2.5M for previews and a mid-teens opening. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 11761/289079 228667.79 1403 shows

Friday - 9081/548757 166846.75 2594 shows

 

More than the number, the pace is anemic at this point. I hope they release reviews soon to build some hype. Otherwise I am thinking  ~2.5m previews/mid teens OW at this point. 

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-6) - 12846/290951 248978.96 1415 shows +1085

Friday - 9870/549578 180964.16 2598 shows +791

 

Awful pace as I said yesterday. 

[noobmaster69]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

and that's why I used T-7, by then its all common playground.

Except streaming, many markets are released early than us 5 weeks. Comments drop will early increase the ga awareness .There is a reason for the bad presale increase of Dune.

Edited January 27 by noobmaster69

[keysersoze123]

Dune 2 MTC1

Early shows(2/25) - 17836/55434 367009.32 181 shows

Previews - 23147/506712 481460.73 2523 shows

Friday -  16956/784960 350817.96 3945 shows

 

Solid sales for OD but not spectacular. At least Thu/Fri ratio shows its not going to skew previews. So far sales are skewing big market Imax screens. it compares well with Oppenheimer. 

 

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 Early Shows MTC1 - 14972/55434 311345.00 181 shows

 

Really strong day 2. Tomorrow we are going to see how previews sell after 2 days of early show sales. I am expecting strong sales as I mentioned earlier today. There are still bunch of shows in smaller markets which can grow as we approach the release date. MTC2 just at 902/3191 14771.35 11 shows. So its irrelevant and will be driven by previews/OW starting tomorrow. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Awful pace as I said yesterday. 

Previews pace is very good I would say.

[iEnri]

Some preview numbers are gonna feel confusing depending if EA is added or not

Edited January 27 by iEnri

[Inceptionzq]

On 1/25/2024 at 5:42 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Dune 2 early showings at 415/1353 in Denver. Only 4 showings

 

12 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Initial run of Dune Part 2 Denver without EA showings is 402 sold.

 

Dune Part 1 was at 434 sold after about 8 hours. Seems good especially with some initial demand burnt off with the EA showings. Full post, along with Emagine and Drafthouse, later tonight.

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS
581	166	1353

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

201

1794

11.20%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

159

1388

11.46%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 12 HOURS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS 734 332 17586 4.17% 14 83

 

I'll figure out some comps tomorrow, but FWIW, Dune Part 1 was at 725 sold after over 2 days of sales.

[Inceptionzq]

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-33 Thursday

153 Showings

3359

+3359

23555

ATP:

19.59

 

T-34 Friday

237 Showings

3475

+3475

35825

ATP:

18.65

 

T-35 Saturday

253 Showings

3827

+3827

38236

ATP:

18.12

 

T-36 Sunday

230 Showings

1622

+1622

34533

ATP:

18.78

[Inceptionzq]

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-33 Thursday

100 Showings

280

+280

16593

 

T-34 Friday

153 Showings

228

+228

26019

 

T-35 Saturday

159 Showings

160

+160

27091

 

T-36 Sunday

153 Showings

52

+52

26189

[Porthos]

On 1/26/2024 at 12:43 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-35 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	3	346	814	468	57.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Last 29 hours-ish

468*

* Tickets went on sale officially at approx 7pm PST yesterday, though there were a smattering of tickets sold before then.  At 11:30pm PST yesterday, D:2 had sold 350 tickets. This sample was taken at 11:40pm PST tonight.

 

NO COMPS AT THE MOMENT DUE TO NUMEROUS FACTORS — HERE ARE A COUPLE OF... OVERVIEWS/BENCHMARKS

 

Overview/Benchmark #1:

	%		Sold That Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Dune D1	118.78		394	394		0/74	11255/11649	3.38%		2915	16.05%
Oppy T-35	75.85		23	617		0/50	6955/7572	8.15%		4621	10.13%

 

Overview/Benchmark #2:

	%		EA Exclusive Sold So Far	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final EA Sold	% of Final
Bats Tue EA	98.53		475	475		0/3	340/815	58.28%		743	62.99%
Barbie EA	238.78		196	196		0/3	177/373	52.55%		400	117.00%

 

=====

 

Don't take anything away from the above, except for, as the saying goes "Entertainment Purposes Only" (as I check, I didn't even bother to give a comp during the EA window for The Batman).

 

But I thought it might be interesting to look at the relative demand burnt off from the EA showtimes for the two films which had exclusive pre-sale EA windows.  Now, it has to be noted that as unexpected as the Barbie EA strength was, there was little indication at the time that Barbie was going to become ***BARBIE!!!***, so that EA sales info only says so much.

 

What's more interesting, in my mind, is the relative percentage of sales of the final EA sold.  The problem here is that The Batman had *TWO* exclusive days: A super limited Tue IMAX Only shows and then a broader Wed ALL PLFs ARE WELCOME EA.

 

That Dune: Part 2 has already hit 63% of the final Tue Only Sales (at the exact same three theaters, I should add) says something interesting.  What exactly that is, I'm still chewing over.  But it's something I'm gonna keep an eye on as time passes.

 

Do have quite a few other thoughts, but I think I'll save them until we get concrete D1 All Sales data.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-34 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	147	21247	22239	992	4.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today	144
Total Seats Added Today	21425
Total Seats Sold Today	524

 

Day 1 Comps EXCEEDINGLY LOL-TASTIC/"Spaghetti at the wall" Edition [DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY!!!]

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune D1	251.78		394	394		0/74	11255/11649	3.38%		2915	34.03%		12.84m
Dune D2	202.04		97	491		0/74	11158/11649	4.21%		2915	34.03%		10.30m
Batman	34.43		2406	2881		0/248	29316/32197	8.95%		11757	8.44%		8.41m
TGM	65.44		1516	1516		0/256	34603/36119	4.20%		11474	8.65%		12.60m
Thor 4	23.84		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	5.85%		6.91m
BP2	30.49		3254	3254		0/279	31690/34980	9.30%		16800	5.90%		8.54m
Ava 2	75.15		1320	1320		0/138	19300/20620	6.40%		8986	11.04%		12.78m
Wick 4	206.24		481	481		0/82	11915/12396	3.88%		5448	18.21%		18.36m
GOTG3	52.43		1892	1892		0/205	27676/29568	6.40%		10750	9.23%		9.18m
Fast X T-34	154.04		10	644		0/182	27121/27765	2.32%		4122	24.07%		11.55m
Oppy T-34	159.49		5	622		0/50	6950/7572	8.21%		10750	9.23%		16.75m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  The Batman had two days of exclusive pre-sales for Early Access shows which resulted in 475 seats sold before regular showtimes went on sale.

 

Regal:     301/5637  [5.34% sold]
Matinee:    15/2097  [0.72% | 1.51% of all tickets sold]
---

Sun:       535/814  [65.72% sold] [+67 tickets]
Thr:    457/21425  [2.13% sold] [+457 tickets]

PLF:      902/9813 [9.19% sold | 90.93% of all sales] [LOL]

 

====

Imagine how well this would be doing in Sacto if the Esquire IMAX had the 70mm print!

Spoiler

[Don't explain the joke mode = ON]

Esquire IMAX's four showings accounts for 43.75% of all sales!!! Helped a great deal because 311 of said sales being part of the Sun EA showing, but even the three 'normal' Thur showtimes are showing signs of doing great business locally .

[Don't explain the joke mode = OFF]

 

What can I say?  Well, this blew the fuck up locally.  So much so that I actually broke out the Top Gun: Maverick comp, which I almost never do.

 

As I said in the spoiler box, a great deal of this has to do with the local TrueIMAX location doing absolutely gangbusters business.  311/388 for the EA showtime and 32, 89, and 2, for the 3pm, 6:30pm, and 10pm showtimes on Thur. How much of that is actual "new" traffic that wouldn't be distributed to other theaters, I can't say for sure. 

 

I will note, however, that Century Arden, reliably the #1 theater in town [or close to it] is hella lagging at 58 tickets sold.  Not having any EA showings hurts, but even so, I would expect more out of Arden on D1, so I think there is something to be said about at least some of the tickets being redistributed locally.  Still, even so, as I said yesterday this is the exact type of film to get folks to show up at the Esquire IMAX that normally might pass entirely on seeing a film (at least right away).

 

Now a lot of digital ink has been spilled about how much the EA showings will put a thumb on the scale, but even with that taken out of the equation, today Thursday sales outsold Dune's D1 sales (457 vs 394).  And that's with a ton of EA demand burnt off.

 

Anywho, I can try to put the numbers in all sorts of context and apply all sorts of provisos, but at the end of the day, this just did very well locally.  Have no idea how well it'll do at the end of the day as there is undoubtedly a fan rush component here, plus as I have said off and on, SF/F does really well here.  But I have to say, I am impressed that this still managed to outsell Dune's D1 even with all of the EA demand burnt off.  That to me says more than anything else.

 

NB:  As @M37 has repeatedly, and justifiably, reminded us, EA sales are putting a tremendous thumb on the scale right now.  There's a reason why the comps are currently LOL-tastic.  Problem is, I don't think there is a good way to comp it right now.  Thus me throwing spaghetti on the wall and letting y'alls pick and choose what to take away from the data.

 

NB to the NB:  No, seriously though, probably best to just ignore comps for a couple of weeks.

 

PS to the NB to the NB: "Hi reddit 🙂 " 👋   👋 👋

Edited January 27 by Porthos

[el sid]

Because the Dune 2 tickets still weren't up...
Argylle, counted yesterday for Thursday, February 1. 6 days left.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 82 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 56 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 1 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 6 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 163 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 172 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 482.

Comps (all four films counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday = Argylle has 3 days left) : The 355 (350k from previews) had 118 sold tickets,
Expend4bles (750k) had 130,
Amsterdam (550k) had 184
and The Menu (1M) had 214 sold tickets.
The Beekeeper (2.4M) had with also 6 days left 130 sold tickets.

No big jump since my last counting on Tuesday but just from the numbers it still looks pretty good for the movie in my theaters.

[M37]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

NB:  As @M37 has repeatedly, and justifiably, reminded us, EA sales are putting a tremendous thumb on the scale right now.  There's a reason why the comps are currently LOL-tastic.  Problem is, I don't think there is a good way to comp it right now.  Thus me throwing spaghetti on the wall and letting y'alls pick and choose what to take away from the data.

If one were to use the average method (w/ EA and w/o), your comps would spit out:

• Low Range (CBMs) = ~$6.0M
• Mid Range = ~$9.0M (hey look at that...)
• High Range = ~$12M (Oppy, John Wick 4)

That mid to high single digits, possibly going $10M+ seems like a fair - albeit wide - range for total previews after one (plus) day of messy data

 

In general, the OD sales even with the EA boost don't look to me like that of a $300M+ juggernaut, but a strong mid/lower level film, something in range of ~$70M OW [$60-$80], a male 25+ skewing John Wick 4/MI7 $150-$200M+ total. With that said, plenty of time to go, so maybe it pulls an Oppy and vaults up to the higher tier, but would need to make that jump on its own, without an assist from Barbie

[LegendaryBen]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-6) - 12846/290951 248978.96 1415 shows +1085

Friday - 9870/549578 180964.16 2598 shows +791

 

Awful pace as I said yesterday. 

I hope it won't fall below $10m OW

[Joyous Legion]

Haven’t been looking closely at Dune and don’t plan to, but being a sequel instead of a first entry is another pretty important variable. Verrrrrrrry loosely from this start thinking like 8-12*6-7.5 for 55-75ish