The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Previews - 18303/550844 363567.31 2875 shows

 

I guessed it almost on point earlier today 🙂 Its quite good. 80% of Dune. But that wont be a good comp as this will be more backloaded than Dune. I am expecting 9ish previews and 60-65m OW. I will update Friday later. 

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Friday - 13577/825514 256602.85 4324 shows

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/13/2024 at 10:31 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Monkey Man	T-22	Jax	5	17	7	7	2,832	0.25%
		Phx	6	13	13	13	1,475	0.88%
		Ral	7	14	15	15	1,840	0.82%
	Total		18	44	35	35	6,147	0.57%
The Fall Guy	T-50	Jax	5	34	6	6	5,746	0.10%
		Phx	6	17	4	4	3,404	0.12%
		Ral	8	34	20	20	5,150	0.39%
	Total		19	85	30	30	14,300	0.21%

 

Fall Guy Day 1 comps

 - Shazam 2 - .221x (750k)

 - Blue Beetle - .385x (1.27m)

 - Black Adam - .098x (743k)

 - F9 - .11x (783k)

 

Not much to go on yet, just wanted to add them for future Day 1 comps

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy (EA)	T-48	Jax	5	10	0	2	2,007	0.10%
		Phx	1	2	0	2	618	0.32%
		Ral	2	2	7	7	412	1.70%
	Total		8	14	7	11	3,037	0.36%
Monkey Man	T-21	Jax	5	17	0	7	2,832	0.25%
		Phx	6	13	3	16	1,475	1.08%
		Ral	7	14	0	15	1,840	0.82%
	Total		18	44	3	38	6,147	0.62%
The Fall Guy	T-49	Jax	5	34	2	8	5,746	0.14%
		Phx	6	17	0	4	3,404	0.12%
		Ral	8	34	1	21	5,150	0.41%
	Total		19	85	3	33	14,300	0.23%

 

Fall Guy Day 2 comps

 - Blue Beetle - .419x (1.38m)

 - Sonic 2 - .194x (1.21m)

 - F9 - .129x (919k)

 

I'll check back in on these in a week

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

Variety's Weekend Predictions:

• KFP4: $28-30 M
• Dune 2: $24-27 M
• Arthur the King: $8-10 M
• American Society: "low-single digits"
• Love Lies Bleeding: not mentioned

Article also mentions that "“Dune 2” has generated $162 million domestically and $375 million globally." (Someone had asked whether it has now passed $400 million globally.)

 

Box Office: ‘Kung Fu Panda 4’ Poised to Rule Again as Mark Wahlberg’s ‘Arthur the King’ Targets $10 Million Debut

 

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-mark-wahlberg-arthur-the-king-opening-weekend-estimates-1235940972/

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy (EA)	T-48	Jax	5	10	0	2	2,007	0.10%
		Phx	1	2	0	2	618	0.32%
		Ral	2	2	7	7	412	1.70%
	Total		8	14	7	11	3,037	0.36%
Monkey Man	T-21	Jax	5	17	0	7	2,832	0.25%
		Phx	6	13	3	16	1,475	1.08%
		Ral	7	14	0	15	1,840	0.82%
	Total		18	44	3	38	6,147	0.62%
The Fall Guy	T-49	Jax	5	34	2	8	5,746	0.14%
		Phx	6	17	0	4	3,404	0.12%
		Ral	8	34	1	21	5,150	0.41%
	Total		19	85	3	33	14,300	0.23%

 

Fall Guy Day 2 comps

 - Blue Beetle - .419x (1.38m)

 - Sonic 2 - .194x (1.21m)

 - F9 - .129x (919k)

 

I'll check back in on these in a week

For Monkey Man may be try Violent Night, Mr. Nobody, Bullet Train.

[Scubasteve716]

1 hour ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

Variety's Weekend Predictions:

• KFP4: $28-30 M
• Dune 2: $24-27 M
• Arthur the King: $8-10 M
• American Society: "low-single digits"
• Love Lies Bleeding: not mentioned

Article also mentions that "“Dune 2” has generated $162 million domestically and $375 million globally." (Someone had asked whether it has now passed $400 million globally.)

 

Box Office: ‘Kung Fu Panda 4’ Poised to Rule Again as Mark Wahlberg’s ‘Arthur the King’ Targets $10 Million Debut

 

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-mark-wahlberg-arthur-the-king-opening-weekend-estimates-1235940972/

 

That number is old though it’s a $172 domestic and $384 global but international number doesn’t include mon, tues, or wed. 

[cooldude97]

could someone tell me what's the split between PLF/IMAX to normal screen for GxK so far 

[Porthos]

35 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

could someone tell me what's the split between PLF/IMAX to normal screen for GxK so far 

 

Gonna vary from market to market.  Right now (one theater still out) in Sacramento the PLF:All Showings ratio is 36:120.  Goes up a bit depending on how one counts DBOX seating. 

 

Interestingly enough, some of the Cinemarks in town are semi-splitting their PLF screen between GxK and GBFE for Thursday previews with GBFE getting the 2pm/3pm/4pm-ish slots and GxK getting the 6pm/7pm-ish slots. Or at least haven't committed the 3pm/4pm corridor yet.

 

The other wild card here is 3D showings as most of the places in town are splitting the PLF screen between 2D and 3D screenings (though not the two Regal IMAXs, which have all three showings as 2D).

Edited March 14 by Porthos

[el sid]

Love Lies Bleeding, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 14 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 10 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 20 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 111 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 64 (3 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 226.

Comps (all films counted on Thursday for Thursday): Bros (500k) had 264 sold tickets,
She Said (160k) had 102,
Ambulance (550k) had 391
and Drive-Away Dolls (estimated 450k from previews) had 228 sold tickets.
 

So I go with 450k for Love Lies Bleeding.

 

[vafrow]

For my area, GxK is not getting any regular screens for Thursday previews, and only a handful matinee regular screenings over the weekend. This covers not just my smaller radius, but entire GTA region.

 

Basically, every ticket will be a premium ticket. Either Dolby (3D or regular), IMAX, 4DX or VIP theatres.

 

Plus, it has their premium pricing on for high demand films.

 

I'm guessing some regular showings will get added later, but currently, if I wanted to see this on previews, cheapest ticket is $18.50 when a basic ticket is as low as $12.75.

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

5 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
American Soc	T-0	Jax	5	13	8	24	1,258	1.91%
		Phx	6	14	7	19	1,348	1.41%
		Ral	6	16	5	17	1,480	1.15%
	Total		17	43	20	60	4,086	1.47%
Arthur the King	T-0	Jax	5	22	19	47	2,460	1.91%
		Phx	7	22	5	55	2,560	2.15%
		Ral	8	24	13	43	2,311	1.86%
	Total		20	68	37	145	7,331	1.98%
Love Lies	T-0	Jax	5	12	13	36	792	4.55%
		Phx	7	17	30	102	1,200	8.50%
		Ral	7	19	9	36	1,794	2.01%
	Total		19	48	52	174	3,786	4.60%
One Life	T-0	Jax	4	10	5	14	662	2.11%
		Phx	2	5	4	16	448	3.57%
		Ral	4	12	2	6	834	0.72%
	Total		10	27	11	36	1,944	1.85%

 

Arthur T-0 comps

 - Peter Rabbit - .56x (506k)

 - Dog (total) - .358x (451k)*

 - Jungle Cruise - .213x (574k)

 - Stillwater - 2.16x (606k)

 - Otto (expansion) - .553x (351k)

 - King Richard (OD) - .232x (450k)

 - Uncharted - .115x (426k)

 - Father Stu - .65x (358k)

 - Devotion - .801x (493k)

 - Marry Me - .829x (435k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 476k

Growth model forecast - 397k

 

*Adjusted Dog comp to include EA sales since the gross wasn't reported separately.

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Arthur the King	215.22%	39.13%	-	34.26%
Peter Rabbit: The Runaway	196.55%	50.57%	-	141.12%
Dog (Total)	-	-	-	-
Jungle Cruise	185.36%	28.03%	29.07%	47.62%
Stillwater	157.69%	42.31%	-	42.55%
King Richard (Fri)	328.08%	-	-	87.69%
Uncharted	86.09%	21.45%	24.11%	34.69%
Father Stu	-	-	-	62.77%
Otto	269.01%	32.39%	-	80.69%
Devotion	135.06%	49.35%	-	79.21%

 

Love Lies T-0 comps

 - Last Night in Soho - .978x (733k)

 - Ambulance - 1.03x (721k)

 - Bones & All - 1.83x (632k)

 - Men - 1.152x (487k)

 - X - .78x (343k)

 - Amsterdam - 1.01x (553k)

 - Firestarter - 1.176x (441k)

Size adjusted comps - 521k

Growth model forecast - 427k

 

American Society T-0 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .48x (240k)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .205x (226k)*

 - House Party - .984x

 - Vengeance - .659x

 - Family Camp - 1.034x

 

Size adjusted comps - 253k

Growth model forecast - 269k

 

*Adjusted Joy Ride to include EA sales and gross

 

One Life T-0 comps

 - Joe Bell - 6x

 - She Said - .923x (148k)

 - Golda - .554x

 - Stillwater - .537x (150k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 147k

Growth model forecast - 108k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
American Soc	1-Hr	Jax	5	13	15	39	1,258	3.10%
		Phx	6	14	7	26	1,348	1.93%
		Ral	6	16	14	31	1,480	2.09%
	Total		17	43	36	96	4,086	2.35%
Arthur the King	1-Hr	Jax	5	22	18	65	2,460	2.64%
		Phx	7	22	14	69	2,560	2.70%
		Ral	8	24	8	51	2,311	2.21%
	Total		20	68	40	185	7,331	2.52%
Love Lies	1-Hr	Jax	5	12	19	55	792	6.94%
		Phx	7	17	22	124	1,200	10.33%
		Ral	7	19	20	56	1,794	3.12%
	Total		19	48	61	235	3,786	6.21%
One Life	1-Hr	Jax	4	10	0	14	662	2.11%
		Phx	2	5	0	16	448	3.57%
		Ral	4	12	5	11	834	1.32%
	Total		10	27	5	41	1,944	2.11%

 

Arthur T-1 hr comps

 - Peter Rabbit - missed

 - Dog (total) - missed

 - Jungle Cruise - .168x (453k)

 - Stillwater - 1.38x (387k)

 - Otto (expansion) - missed

 - King Richard (OD) - missed

 - Uncharted - missed

 - Father Stu - .64x (352k)

 - Devotion - missed

 - Marry Me - missed

All drama - 326k

All 3pm previews - 395k

All PG-13 - 383k

All movies - 400k

 

Size adjusted comps - 374k

Growth model forecast - 461k (Only based on the three comps I had updates for)

 

I'll go with 400k for my final prediction

 

Love Lies T-1 hr comps

 - Last Night in Soho - .87x (653k)

 - Ambulance - missed

 - Bones & All - missed

 - Men - 1x (425k)

 - X - .685x (3601k)

 - Amsterdam - .864x (475k)

 - Firestarter - 1.04x (392k)

All thriller - 523k

All A24 - 374k

All R movies - 539k

All movies - 508k

Size adjusted comps - 468k

Growth model forecast - 576k

 

Final prediction: 500k

 

American Society T-1 hr comps

 - Easter Sunday - .593x (296k)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - missed

 - House Party - .807x

 - Vengeance - .722x

 - Family Camp - 1.371x

All comedies - 229k

All 5pm movies - 218k

All movies - 208k

 

Final prediction: 250k

 

One Life T-1 hr comps

 - Joe Bell - 1.577x

 - She Said - .603x (96k)

 - Golda - .519x

 - Stillwater - .306x (86k)

All drama - 72k

All movies - 89k

 

Final prediction: 100k  (unreported)

[Unfitclock]

@katnisscinnaplex so sub 10 million opening weekend most likely that sucks

[el sid]

Arthur the King, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 8 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 8 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 12 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 38 (4 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 74.

Comps: Dog (1.26M from previews Sunday + Thursday / 14.9M OW) had on Thursday for Friday 95 sold tickets

and Clifford (a Wednesday release / 16.6M 3-day OW) had on also on Thursday for Friday 152 sold tickets.
Lyle (575k) had on Thursday for Thursday 134 sold tickets.

Arthur the King still has very low presales in my theaters plus it had an even worse jump than Dog back then. And IMO the trailer(s) for Dog were way better but maybe the majority sees it different. And...the main figure of Dog was an army ranger which maybe also helped box office-wise.
So - I'm sorry and I would like to report better presales and who knows, maybe the walk-ups are very decent - but I would go with high single digits OW.

Edited March 14 by el sid

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I’ve seen it. It’s good, but in that “your standard British biopic” kind of way. Hopkins is good, but I don’t think anything in the film is as powerful as the real TV clip it’s based on.

 

Side note, I showed my students in Social Studies 10 the real Winton clip last year before I knew this movie was a thing. For any schoolteachers out there, this is a pretty good WW2 film to show a class.

 

Anyways, back to box office lol.

[dallas]

With Dune 2 and now GxK doing really well, it's very unfortunate for WB to have lost Legendary to Sony. They still have a ton of big money franchises but losing the Monsterverse and now Dune at the peak of its popularity is a huge blow. 

[TMP]

2 minutes ago, dallas said:

With Dune 2 and now GxK doing really well, it's very unfortunate for WB to have lost Legendary to Sony. They still have a ton of big money franchises but losing the Monsterverse and now Dune at the peak of its popularity is a huge blow. 

The Sony deal doesn't include future Monsterverse or Dune movies; those will still be at WB

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/11/2024 at 9:54 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
559	3242	113406	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

98

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

77

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

(0.557x) of Dune 2 $5.18M  

 

Comps average: $5.18M 

Adjusted: $4.66M

 

Adjusted down 10% since Dune 2 ATP makes this a bad comp

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
559	3696	113406	3.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

276

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

(0.562x) of Dune 2 $5.23M  

(2.237x) of Argylle $3.80M  

 

Comps average: $4.51M 

[Scubasteve716]

17 minutes ago, dallas said:

With Dune 2 and now GxK doing really well, it's very unfortunate for WB to have lost Legendary to Sony. They still have a ton of big money franchises but losing the Monsterverse and now Dune at the peak of its popularity is a huge blow. 

Those will stay with WB as long as they want them. Guessing they will keep Dune, Mosterverse, and Meg but who knows. Dune 3 seems it'll 100% be at WB. 

Edited March 15 by Scubasteve716

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

G x K: The New Empire

 

Thursday 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
581	2545	117127	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

384

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

(0.502x) of Dune 2 $4.67M  

 

Comps average: $4.67M 

 

Several showings still listed as "sold-out" so sales will be depressed for now