The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Godzilla x Kong (Fri)	3D	21	286	286	2,180	13.12%
		PLF	45	4,626	4,626	11,367	40.70%
		Standard	113	3,238	3,238	12,991	24.92%
	Total		179	8,150	8,150	26,538	30.71%

 

Friday T-0 unadjusted comps

 - JW3 - .546x (22.72m)

 - TG2 - .965x (31.56m)

 - FB3 - 2.452x (34.39m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.013x (36.66m)

 - Batman - .828x (28.98m)

 - Dune 2 - 2.152x (43.49m)

 - Oppenheimer - 1.861x (41.9m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 9.4m preview)

 - JW3 - 32.77m

 - TG2 - 31.89m

 - FB3 - 33.54m

 - Avatar 2 - 35.19m

 - Batman - 30.87m

 - Dune 2 - 29.46m

 - Oppenheimer - 26.57m

 

Uhh, well, I'm not trying to get everyone's expectations up but... I gotta go with

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30m+ true Friday.

 

Wild if the true Friday hits the initial estimates for Godzilla x Kong’s whole opening weekend.

[Schlorgan]

https://deadline.com/2024/03/box-office-godzilla-x-kong-the-new-empire-1235871440/

 

The afternoon update says 31m Friday (including previews)

 

[keysersoze123]

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

How can Deadline be so wildly off every single time?

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

Btw, every single theater around me is nearly full. Even the small 3D theaters. This is crazy.

https://ibb.co/LCTmbJm

Edited March 30 by ReturnOfTheBoxOffice

[dallas]

Jat says $26M Friday

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

if they can +600k for monsters, why didnt they go +300k for flash?

 

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

According to Charlie they went +750K for Dune 2. So why not 600K for Zilla. Flash WB just gave up and did not want to do anything. 

May be there is some new guy responsible for making a decision now vs then.

 

What really matters is overall opening day is given correctly. Previews est being off is not a problem.

 

since we actually use those numbed as comps, so I try to get actuals for them as well, that’s it.

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

Kinda low? Feel like 25 true Friday is too low.

[dallas]

ngl I was kind of hoping for more but $36M OD is still great. 

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

So 80+ is probably not happening now right?

[filmlover]

It's gotten lost in the Godzilla x Kong buzz but in case it wasn't posted before:

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/28/24)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Distributor
4/5/2024	The First Omen	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000	$20,000,000 – $34,400,000	20th Century Studios
4/5/2024	Monkey Man	$13,000,000 – $21,000,000	$37,000,000 – $63,000,000	Universal Pictures
4/10/2024	SUGA│Agust D TOUR “D-DAY” the MOVIE			BTS SUGA
4/12/2024	Civil War	$15,000,000 – $23,000,000	$42,000,000 – $72,000,000	A24
4/12/2024	Don’t Tell Mom the Babysitter’s Dead (2024)			Iconic Events Releasing
4/12/2024	The Ministry of Ungentlemenly Warfare	$6,000,000 – $10,000,000	$12,000,000 – $34,000,000	Lionsgate
4/12/2024	Shrek 2 (20th Anniversary Re-Release)			Universal Pictures
4/13/2024	SUGA│Agust D TOUR “D-DAY” the MOVIE			BTS SUGA
4/19/2024	Abigail	$12,000,000 – $22,000,000	$28,000,000 – $66,000,000	Universal Pictures
4/19/2024	Sasquatch Sunset			Bleecker Street
4/19/2024	Spy x Family Code: White			Sony / Crunchyroll
4/19/2024	Villains Inc.			Purdie Distribution
4/19/2024	Wildfire: The Legend of the Cherokee Ghost Horse			Hannover House
4/24/2024	aespa: WORLD TOUR			Trafalgar Releasing
4/26/2024	Challengers	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$18,000,000 – $35,000,000	United Artists Releasing
4/26/2024	Nowhere Special			Cohen Media Group
4/26/2024	Unsung Hero	$7,000,000 – $14,000,000	$20,000,000 – $46,000,000	Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: CHALLENGERS and UNSUNG HERO - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[Minnale101]

Wow April is dire 

[filmlover]

I actually think Challengers could go higher than the high-end of the forecast since MGM has been pushing it like crazy though I can certainly see the hesitancy in overpredicting a movie about tennis (a sports genre that's always had limited appeal at the box office) and questioning the commercial viability of a Luca Guadagnino film (his biggest movie by far to date didn't hit $20M total and that was a Best Picture nominee). 

[Bob Train]

46 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Wow April is dire 

Sony should’ve put Ghostbusters in mid-April. But instead they made it compete with 3 juggernauts in KFP, Dune, and GxK. 

[Mojoguy]

4 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Sony should’ve put Ghostbusters in mid-April. But instead they made it compete with 3 juggernauts in KFP, Dune, and GxK. 

SONY loves losing money as shown with Madam Webb.

[Schlorgan]

Edited March 30 by Schlorgan

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Friday - 156305/1103561 2673765.19 6182 shows +53844

 

Fell slightly short of 160K I had put yesterday but still its so close and so I am sticking to the same prediction for friday. somewhere in 23-26m range for true friday depending on how the walkups go. 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Friday - 381370/1108096 6282777.66 6230 shows +225065

 

Strong day of walkups. I would have thought this is good for high 20s True Friday. I guess other MTC under performed again. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Friday - 381370/1108096 6282777.66 6230 shows +225065

 

Strong day of walkups. I would have thought this is good for high 20s True Friday. I guess other MTC under performed again. 

$27.5M seems possible today depending on how day ends.

 

Yeah in morning MTC3 seemed like the culprit.

Edited March 30 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1 Saturday - 153861/1133080 2550582.83 6398 shows +60233

 

PS is less than 5% below yesterday. I am expecting walkups to be even better tomorrow as 72% of schools and 39% of colleges were only out today. Plus the underperforming MTC should do even better.  Expecting 5-10% bump tomorrow minus previews. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 3/29/2024 at 1:57 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Godzilla x Kong MiniTC2 T-0 Day

 

Friday - 12789/136489 (587 showings) $170K

 

Great day. Will target 42K+ tomorrow, which would mean $26M ish, though Holiday could be behaving a bit differently, so that needs to be seen.

 

Godzilla x Kong MiniTC2

 

Friday - 43579/137390 (593 showings) $525K

 

Good day. Would have projected $27.5M+ which we know is the case.

 

Saturday - 12536/141182 (626 showings) $160K

 

% growth on SAT (drop actually) is less than Mario, which had 4% jump. Normally would have predicted a growth on SAT but holiday complicates, so likely a flat or minor drop. @keysersoze123

Edited March 30 by charlie Jatinder