The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

Not to further add to the hype, but I'm seeing incredible walk ups here as well. Lots of cases where sales are ending up at triple they were to start the day. Only in cases where capacity is limiting it, but those situations are limited. Some of these late showings that were slow sellers with under 20 sold this morning are at over 100 now with almost a full hour to go.

[TheFlatLannister]

Just now, vafrow said:

Not to further add to the hype, but I'm seeing incredible walk ups here as well. Lots of cases where sales are ending up at triple they were to start the day. Only in cases where capacity is limiting it, but those situations are limited. Some of these late showings that were slow sellers with under 20 sold this morning are at over 100 now with almost a full hour to go.

TRIPLE?? HOLY GvK blowing tf up was not on my bingo card for 2024 

[ThomasNicole]

If 10M previews happens i can’t see sub 70M weekend even if audience reception are meh. +80M can be in play lol

 

First big surprise of the year for sure. Monster movies really are the most reliable franchises to bet on walkups. 

[vafrow]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

TRIPLE?? HOLY GvK blowing tf up was not on my bingo card for 2024 

 

The last case where I was seeing this was T:ROTB, where I was closely tracking walkups since I was focusing on one theatre. GxK has outperformed that, largely because there's more people going for the late show. 

 

That said, I think Canada is generally more backloaded, but still, this feels pretty big right now.

[emoviefan]

A Monster run amok movie having great walkups. Who saw that coming. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Good. Good.

 

Now let's see if it can take on Dune 2 OW. WW is nearly a lock, DOM be close, US closer.

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, emoviefan said:

A Monster run amok movie having great walkups. Who saw that coming. 

Won't call great walkups unless it hit $85M+. $70-75M be pretty much normal.

[Eric the Ape]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Good. Good.

 

Now let's see if it can take on Dune 2 OW. WW is nearly a lock, DOM be close, US closer.

This doesn't have Timothee Supremacy, so nah.

[Minnale101]

Insaneeee, what a amazing match at the box office 

[interiorgatordecorator]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

 

 

WW is nearly a lock

 

wow

how big of a streaming hit was gvk?

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

This doesn't have Timothee Supremacy, so nah.

I summon thee, @Brainbug

[Cmasterclay]

Godzilla X Kong memed itself to a breakout. The ultimate box office power these days.

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Godzilla X Kong memed itself to a breakout. The ultimate box office power these days.

Morbius proved that memes do not maketh movie.

[AniNate]

Don't have much interest in the movie, but would be very pleased to see GxK blow up since we need something huge to help offset the massive downturn April will likely be compared to last year

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, ReturnOfTheBoxOffice said:

Morbius proved that memes do not maketh movie.

 

The problem with Morbius is... it (mostly) became a meme AFTER it was released.  People mocking how few people were watching it was the main trigger.  Then the famous "It's Morbin' time" came soon after.

 

Can't shove the horse back in the barn at that point (as the gimmicky expansion proved).

 

ETA:::

 

Also when most of the memes are centered around people not caring, or ironically noting that people don't care about something, or flat out making something up about something in an attempt to prove "No, you didn't watch it, either"... that doesn't actually show that people DID care about it.

 

Just the opposite!  

 

So, no, not all memes are created equal.  As Sony found out when it tried to ride the Mobius meme waves a few weeks into release.

Edited March 29 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

 

15 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Godzilla x Kong MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

Previews -  5208/55979 (218 showings) $74K

 

Comps

John Wick 4 - $6.5M

Indiana Jones - $7.8M

Fast X - $8.8M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $8.8M

 

The above are tix sold comps, gross comps are roughly 5% higher due to higher ATP.

 

California locs are over-indexing being around 27% of total, normally they are 17-20%

18:45 update - MiniTC2

 

11539/56452 (220 showings) $155K

 

Seems like 14K final. Good day. Should be fine for ~$9M previews.

 

CA is accounting for 24% of total, normally for such film it would be 16-20%, so around 20-50% over-indexing due to spring break.

[Bob Train]

I think GxK blow-up has something to do with the fact that no "casual" action movie has done over $70m OW since Spider-Verse 9 months ago...

[Eric the Ape]

15 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Godzilla X Kong memed itself to a breakout. The ultimate box office power these days.

There were memes?

[charlie Jatinder]

I don't think there is anything abnormal happening here. It's a sequel to film which would have opened $90-110M, $70-80M OW is pretty much par course.

 

Inflation adj Monster Verse openings


G 2014 - 125
Skull Island - 75
KOTM - 58

GvK (in normal times) - 90-110

[THUNDER BIRD]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't think there is anything abnormal happening here. It's a sequel to film which would have opened $90-110M, $70-80M OW is pretty much par course.

 

Inflation adj Monster Verse openings


G 2014 - 125
Skull Island - 75
KOTM - 58

GvK (in normal times) - 90-110

I would need more than Skull Island adjusted.

 

Also GvK was a different beast entirely, Godzilla Kong for first time, in a versus movie.