The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, dallas said:

Is this gonna beat Dune 2's OW? 

I've never looked at Easter weekend trends before but Friday is a holiday so I think there should be a drop on Saturday no? That makes it hard for it to beat Dune 2's OW.

[dallas]

So about a $200M WW debut for GxK?

[emoviefan]

Great for GXK to break out like this with the Walkups and GA. I hope The Fall Guy can pull it off in little over a month with stronger reviews and the crowd pleasing elements. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

 

18:45 update - MiniTC2

 

11539/56452 (220 showings) $155K

 

Seems like 14K final. Good day. Should be fine for ~$9M previews.

 

CA is accounting for 24% of total, normally for such film it would be 16-20%, so around 20-50% over-indexing due to spring break.

Godzilla x Kong MiniTC2 Final

Previews - 14252/56235 (218 showings) $190K

Normally this would mean $9.5M. I think I should be fine taking that.

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Godzilla x Kong MiniTC2 Final

Previews - 14252/56235 (218 showings) $190K

Normally this would mean $9.5M. I think I should be fine taking that.

Give me 10+

[charlie Jatinder]

22 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Godzilla x Kong MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

Friday - 7707/136291 (586 showings) $105K

 

Comps

John Wick 4 - $18.2M

Indiana Jones - $19M

Fast X - $26.3M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $26.8M

 

Same as above, tickets sold comps. Gross comps are 5% higher. 

 

Points to $20M+ could be in the $23-25M range.

Godzilla x Kong MiniTC2 T-0 Day

 

Friday - 12789/136489 (587 showings) $170K

 

Great day. Will target 42K+ tomorrow, which would mean $26M ish, though Holiday could be behaving a bit differently, so that needs to be seen.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	T-7	Jax	5	10	0	6	1,366	0.44%
		Phx	6	12	0	11	1,681	0.65%
		Ral	5	11	0	1	1,236	0.08%
	Total		16	33	0	18	4,283	0.42%
Monkey Man	T-7	Jax	6	18	4	17	3,006	0.57%
		Phx	6	14	2	43	1,683	2.55%
		Ral	7	14	2	29	1,840	1.58%
	Total		19	46	8	89	6,529	1.36%
Someone Like You	T-5	Jax	5	10	2	50	892	5.61%
		Phx	6	12	3	5	1,316	0.38%
		Ral	6	15	2	21	1,213	1.73%
	Total		17	37	7	76	3,421	2.22%

 

Monkey Man T-7 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - missed

 - Cocaine Bear - .54x (1.08m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .403x (1.25m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.113x (1.22m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .412x (1.27m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .249x (1.17m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.22m

 

Someone Like You T-5 adjusted comps

- I Wanna Dance - .444x (332k)

 - Respect (Total) - .243x (167k)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - .11x (204k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .202x (257k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 356k

 

First Omen T-7 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .4x (498k)

 - Last Voyage - .36x (270k)

- Don't Breathe 2 - 1.2x (1.23m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	T-6	Jax	5	10	1	7	1,366	0.51%
		Phx	6	12	3	14	1,681	0.83%
		Ral	5	11	0	1	1,236	0.08%
	Total		16	33	4	22	4,283	0.51%
Monkey Man	T-6	Jax	6	18	4	21	3,006	0.70%
		Phx	6	14	0	43	1,683	2.55%
		Ral	7	14	5	34	1,840	1.85%
	Total		19	46	9	98	6,529	1.50%
Someone Like You	T-4	Jax	5	10	2	52	892	5.83%
		Phx	6	12	2	7	1,316	0.53%
		Ral	6	15	11	32	1,213	2.64%
	Total		17	37	15	91	3,421	2.66%

 

Someone Like You T-4 adjusted comps

- I Wanna Dance - .52x (389k)

 - Respect (Total) - .245x (169k)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - .116x (213k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .221x (281k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 423k

 

Monkey Man T-6 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - missed

 - Cocaine Bear - .6x (1.2m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .389x (1.21m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.043x (1.15m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .414x (1.27m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .229x (1.07m)

 - Green Knight - 1.96x (1.56m)

 - Beast - 2x (1.89m)

 - 65 - 1.42x (1.74m)

 - Haunting in Venice (Total) - .933x (1.12m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.395m

 

First Omen T-6 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .407x (507k)

 - Last Voyage - .4x (300k)

- Don't Breathe 2 - 1.222x (1.25m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-14	Jax	5	34	4	21	6,188	0.34%
		Phx	6	19	12	34	4,009	0.85%
		Ral	6	20	0	26	2,899	0.90%
	Total		17	73	16	81	13,096	0.62%

 

T-14 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .172x (1.35m)

 - Elvis - .42x (1.62m)

 - Equalizer 3 - 1.08x (4.1m)

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-13	Jax	5	34	2	23	6,188	0.37%
		Phx	6	19	0	34	4,009	0.85%
		Ral	6	20	0	26	2,899	0.90%
	Total		17	73	2	83	13,096	0.63%

 

T-13 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .161x (1.27m)

 - Elvis - .377x (1.46m)

 - Equalizer 3 - 1.01x (3.85m)

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/21/2024 at 9:13 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy (EA)	T-41	Jax	5	10	0	2	2,007	0.10%
		Phx	1	2	0	1	618	0.16%
		Ral	2	2	0	7	412	1.70%
	Total		8	14	0	10	3,037	0.33%
The Fall Guy	T-42	Jax	5	34	3	9	5,746	0.16%
		Phx	6	17	10	14	3,404	0.41%
		Ral	8	34	7	27	5,150	0.52%
	Total		19	85	20	50	14,300	0.35%

 

Fall Guy T-42 adjusted comps

 - Jurassic World (Total) - .167x (3.08m)

 

*New sales are since T-50

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy (EA)	T-33	Jax	5	10	1	3	2,007	0.15%
		Phx	1	2	1	2	618	0.32%
		Ral	2	2	0	7	412	1.70%
	Total		8	14	2	12	3,037	0.40%
The Fall Guy	T-34	Jax	5	34	3	12	5,746	0.21%
		Phx	6	17	10	24	3,404	0.71%
		Ral	8	34	8	35	5,150	0.68%
	Total		19	85	21	71	14,300	0.50%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-34 comps

- Nope - .561x (3.01m)

 - Jurassic World 3 (Total) - .056x (1.02m)

 - Oppenheimer - .211x (1.78m)

 

*New sales since T-42

[Issac Newton]

Any update for Anya? Spy x Family Code: White 

 

[Schlorgan]

RT audience score to to 93%

[vafrow]

On 3/28/2024 at 6:15 AM, vafrow said:

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-8, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 38

New Sales : 9

Growth: 31%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.8

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 31/2

Late Evening: 7/2

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 27/2
Regular: 11/2

 

Comps

0.197x HG: BoSS for $1.1M

0.469x Aquaman 2 for $2.1M

0.067x Dune 2 for $0.7M

Average: $1.3M

 

Sales are picking up. 

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-7, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 39

New Sales : 1

Growth: 3%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.9

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 32/2

Late Evening: 7/2

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 27/2
Regular: 12/2

 

Comps

0.186x HG: BoSS for $1.1M

0.443x Aquaman 2 for $2.0M

0.064x Dune 2 for $0.6M

Average: $1.2M

 

Uneventful day. Godzilla taking up all the attention.

[M37]

Just for posterity, walk-ups were strong enough to push me fully into the $9M+ camp, though not all the way to $10M (unless WB rounds/fudges to get there). A straight comp of MTC1 with ROTB Thursday only would net $9.1M, but the Good Fri Eve effect likely boosted the smaller MTCs more, lowering market share, raising PSM ($60/tix+ ?), so in mid-$9M range

 

7 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I've never looked at Easter weekend trends before but Friday is a holiday so I think there should be a drop on Saturday no? That makes it hard for it to beat Dune 2's OW.

Not necessarily a drop, but probably at best a very minor increase, so +/-10%

 

Both Minions 2 (July 4th) and Black Panther 2 (Vet Day) saw a drop from TFri on their respective holiday weekends, as did F8ate of the Furious (Easter 2017) , while Mario was only +4% last Easter Sat (off a Wed opening, so less of a Fri/OD rush), so I would lean towards the flat to drop side, but will have to wait and see

 

Going to take something like $9.5/$28/$28/$17.5 = $83M to (just barely) top Dune, which seems plausible, but I think mid to high $70Ms is the more likely outcome based on where the tracking here say Thur landed and Friday is heading

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

 

[Inceptionzq]

13 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla x Kong Emagine Entertainment [+7 days of sales]

T-1 Friday

307 Showings

6850

+5646

44974

2.358

GB Frozen T-1

26.88M

2.128	Transformers T-1	35.86M
0.792	AtSV T-1	27.31M

Godzilla x Kong Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Friday

302 Showings

10605

+3755

43283

2.422	GB Frozen T-0	27.61M
2.313	Transformers T-0	38.98M
0.819	AtSV T-0	28.27M

 

13 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla x Kong Alamo Drafthouse [+7 days of sales]

T-1 Friday

317 Showings

8756

+6063

43770

ATP:

14.83

1.337	GB Frozen T-1	15.24M
0.511	AtSV T-1	17.62M
2.393	Transformers T-1	40.32M
1.400	Black Adam T-1	26.73M
0.493	JW Dominion T-1	20.50M

Godzilla x Kong Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Friday

320 Showings

12180

+3424

44389

ATP:

14.53

1.412	GB Frozen T-0	16.10M
0.566	AtSV T-0	19.51M
2.414	Transformers T-0	40.68M

0.583

JW Dominion T-0

24.23M

 

Some great increases, continuing the theme of what others were seeing with later Thursday showings.

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy (EA)	T-33	Jax	5	10	1	3	2,007	0.15%
		Phx	1	2	1	2	618	0.32%
		Ral	2	2	0	7	412	1.70%
	Total		8	14	2	12	3,037	0.40%
The Fall Guy	T-34	Jax	5	34	3	12	5,746	0.21%
		Phx	6	17	10	24	3,404	0.71%
		Ral	8	34	8	35	5,150	0.68%
	Total		19	85	21	71	14,300	0.50%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-34 comps

- Nope - .561x (3.01m)

 - Jurassic World 3 (Total) - .056x (1.02m)

 - Oppenheimer - .211x (1.78m)

 

*New sales since T-42

Probably still too far out for a movie like this to really gleam much.I just hope if GXK is like Mario where negative reviews don't hurt because people know what they want and get it, the Fall Guy is not Dungeon's and Dragons where strong early reviews from SWSW don''t move the needle at all and it only does okay and not enough considering the budget. 

[Schlorgan]

https://deadline.com/2024/03/box-office-godzilla-x-kong-the-new-empire-1235871440/

 

Deadline updated their story to report $10m

[keysersoze123]

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/22/2024 at 10:18 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Ghostbusters: FE	3,428	118,945		106,525		12,420	2,515	0
Kung Fu Panda 4	3,111	64,565	-31.21%	57,956	321.22	6,609	0	6,089
Dune: Part Two	2,901	39,987	-32.57%	37,270	480.68	2,717	2,193	0
Arthur the King	2,781	34,670	-12.10%	34,634	163.41	36	0	0
Imaginary	2,174	27,458	-23.16%	27,455	155.38	3	0	0
Immaculate	2,104	33,647		33,647		0	0	0
Cabrini	1,611	11,992	-54.70%	11,986	106.24	6	0	0
Love Lies Bleeding	1,607	16,020	0.93%	16,008	132.36	12	0	0
Luca	1,230	10,207		10,136		71	0	67
Bob Marley: One Love	1,087	8,634	-57.86%	8,622	111.17	12	0	0
American Society	1,072	7,535	-49.19%	7,532	75.27	3	0	0
Late Night with Devil	975	10,628		10,628		0	0	0
One Life	878	7,985	-28.45%	7,985	131.93	0	0	0
Ordinary Angels	571	3,932	-70.04%	3,932	71.83	0	0	0
The Boy and the Heron	422	2,727		2,727		0	0	0

 

3/22/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included

 

Opening Weekend Comp

Ghostbusters - 118,945 (3,428 TC) (20,047 previews)

 - Transformers - 119,071 (3,183) (18,066)

 - Indiana Jones - 118,208 (3,707) (18,937)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - 117,504 (3,243) (16,319)

 - Eternals - 118,603 (3,436) (14,155)

 - Flash - 116,640 (3,330) (19,339)

 

Immaculate - 33,647 (2,104 TC) (3,198 previews)

 - Blacklight - 33,722 (2,482) (4,369)

 - Antlers - 34,978 (2,572) (4,064)

 - Last Duel - 32,124 (2,731) (3,896)

 - X - 34,402 (2,619) (3,298)

 - Men - 31,745 (2,100) (2,948)

 

Late Night with the Devil - 10,628 (975 TC) (1,797 previews)

 - Watcher - 10,477 (732)

 - Umma - 11,404 (739)

 - Fablemans - 11,375 (589)

 - Fear - 12,584 (918)

 

Luca (Re-release) - 10,207 (1,230 TC)

 - Jurassic Park (Re-release) - 9,791 (1,183)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Godzilla x Kong - 74,106 (2,729 TC) (25,227 PLF)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 70,344 (2,813) (10,534)

 - Indiana Jones - 76,495 (2,876) (15,524)

 - Transformers - 72,589 (2,647) (28,154)

 - Jurassic World 3 - 117,594 (3,104) (30,356)

 - Black Adam - 78,913 (2,901) (14,819)

 

In the Land of Saints and Sinners - 4,462 (293 TC)

 - Fablemans - 4,808 (437)

 - Emily - 4,185 (355)

 - Belfast - 3,960 (326)

 

T-2 Week Previews Comps

Monkey Man - 4,215 (1,862 TC)

 - M3GAN - 4,412 (1,837)

 - Scream - 4,141 (1,945)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4,649 (1,980)

 - Black Phone - 4,684 (1,873)

 - Insidious Red Door - 4,665 (1,519)

 

The First Omen - 1,163 (688 TC)

*Regal hasn't posted shows yet

 

Someone Like You (OD) - 3,210 (1,531 TC)

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

Civil War 4/8 EA - 41

Civil War - 4,400 (1,292 TC)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4,231 (1,812)

 - Monkey Man - 3,916 (1,715)

 - Elvis - 4,418 (1,813)

 - Cocaine Bear - 4,525 (1,823)

 

Shrek 2 (20th Anniversary) - 1,020 (575 TC)

 

T-6 Week Previews Comps

Fall Guy (5/1 EA) - 1,130 (894 TC)

Fall Guy - 7,224 (2,072 TC)

 - Oppenheimer - 5,419 (1,954)

 - Nope - 4,794 (1,157)

 

I've got the Spider-Man re-releases listed in ~275 theaters

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Ghostbusters: FE	3,481	67,431	-31.82%	66,278	378.37	1,153
Godzilla x Kong:	3,252	125,011		92,399		32,612	4,813	19,543
Kung Fu Panda 4	3,034	51,646	-20.01%	48,116	255.58	3,530		3,379
Dune: Part Two	2,701	31,764	-20.56%	31,563	440.31	201
Arthur the King	2,396	26,338	-24.03%	26,323	122.99	15
Immaculate	2,094	28,028	-7.95%	28,028	158.67	0
Imaginary	1,758	15,400	-43.91%	15,400	101.29	0
Late Night with Devil	1,347	13,996	58.49%	13,996	266.74	0
Luca	1,210	4,826	-52.72%	4,820	54.71	6
Cabrini	1,208	6,944	-42.09%	6,944	118.94	0
Chosen 4: 4-6	1,035	1,246		1,246		0
Land of Saints	875	12,820		12,820		0
Love Lies Bleeding	719	4,658	-70.92%	4,658	99.03	0
Bob Marley: One Love	506	3,640	-57.84%	3,637	123.47	3
One Life	479	3,431	-57.03%	3,431	127.58	0
Crew (Hindi)	411	3,373		3,373		0
Tillu Square	410	4,087		4,079		8

 

3/29/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included

Opening Weekend Comp

Godzilla x Kong - 125,011 (3,252 TC) (32,612 PLF)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 118,945 (3,428) (12,420)

 - Indiana Jones - 118,208 (3,707) (17,273)

 - Transformers - 119,071 (3,183) (32,449)

 - Jurassic World 3 - 181,854 (3,848) (35,828)

 - Black Adam - 138,408 (3,499) (15,518)

 - Dune 2 - 136,042 (3,378) (14,027)

 - Morbius - 134,155 (3,418) (15,270)

 - Halloween Ends - 123,861 (3,298) (14,291)

 

In the Land of Saints and Sinners - 12,820 (875 TC)

 - One Life - 12,988 (887)

 - Devil Conspiracy - 12,610 (917)

 - Good House - 12,607 (987)

 - Jules - 12,726 (752)

 - Armageddon Time - 12,340 (945)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Monkey Man - 30,052 (2,172 TC)

 - M3GAN - 29,092 (2,210)

 - Violent Night - 29,124 (2,108)

 - Black Phone - 30,912 (2,156)

 - Beast - 31,538 (2,106)

 - Insidious Red Door - 31,621 (1,952)

 

The First Omen - 25,375 (1,974 TC)

 - Firestarter - 25,486 (1,830)

 - Menu - 23,446 (1,792)

 - Talk to Me - 23,247 (1,431)

 - Prey for the Devil - 23,020 (1,732)

 

Someone Like You (3-day) - 10,509 (1,609 TC)

 - Honk for Jesus - 11,931 (1,249)

 - Journal for Jordan - 12,263 (1,316)

 - Christmas with the Chosen - 12,437 (1,351)

 - Redeeming Love - 13,519 (1,317)

 

T-2 Week Previews Comps

Civil War 4/8 EA - 46

Civil War - 6,831 (2,079 TC)

 - Gran Turismo - 7,244 (1,832)

 - Dune - 5,906 (2,129)

 - Oppenheimer - 6,315 (2,375)

 

Shrek 2 (20th Anniversary) - 1,066 (601 TC)

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

Spy x Family Code: White - 3,418 (1,157 TC)

 - Creator - 3,606 (1,476)

 - Menu - 3,087 (1,316)

 - Father Stu - 3,017 (1,359)

 

T-5 Week Previews Comps

Fall Guy (5/1 EA) - 1,137 (902 TC)

Fall Guy - 7,376 (2,130 TC)

 - Oppenheimer - 5,849 (2,131)

 - Nope - 7,656 (1,929)

[Schlorgan]

Per the Deadline article, PostTrak is 5 stars.

 

A Cinemascore incoming?