The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

Challengers (T-13, Day 1):

Day: T-13, T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 18 theaters	59	29	29	9383	0.31
Monday April 22 EA: 13 theaters	13	87	87	2640	3.3
TOTALS:	72	116	116	12023	0.96

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		22	22	75.86
MTC1:		23	23	79.31
Alamo:		4	4	13.79
Other chains:		2	2	6.9

 

Day 1 Comps (Including EA):

0.92x Civil War (w/ EA): $2.96 Million* (17 theaters)

 

*Using reported $2.9 Million + $325k estimated EA numbers

 

This was a very strong start locally, obviously carried by the EA but a good sign of local interest. I will have better comps at T-11.

[abracadabra1998]

On 4/11/2024 at 3:02 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Excellent final day. Calling it at $2.8M +/- $0.2M *just for Thursday* 

 

On 4/11/2024 at 4:31 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	1-Hr	Jax	6	47	154	429	7,476	5.74%
		Phx	6	38	91	334	5,966	5.60%
		Ral	8	25	126	307	3,136	9.79%
	Total		20	110	371	1,070	16,578	6.45%

 

Well well well.  Managed a +53% in same-day sales which is a great sign for tonight.   Growth model still has it around 2.5m, but I'll bump my prediction up to 2.75m before adding EA (3.1m total)

 

On 4/10/2024 at 10:19 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Civil War (T-1):

Gonna stay true to these numbers however and go with $2.8 Million, +/- 0.3 as my final prediction.

 

It does seem from Deadline's article that the $2.9 Million is from Thursday only, so I'll go ahead and toot all our horns here  good work everyone!

[charlie Jatinder]

@keysersoze123 can you check Spider-man?

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Challengers (T-13, Day 1):

Day: T-13, T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 18 theaters	59	29	29	9383	0.31
Monday April 22 EA: 13 theaters	13	87	87	2640	3.3
TOTALS:	72	116	116	12023	0.96

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		22	22	75.86
MTC1:		23	23	79.31
Alamo:		4	4	13.79
Other chains:		2	2	6.9

 

Day 1 Comps (Including EA):

0.92x Civil War (w/ EA): $2.96 Million* (17 theaters)

 

*Using reported $2.9 Million + $325k estimated EA numbers

 

This was a very strong start locally, obviously carried by the EA but a good sign of local interest. I will have better comps at T-11.

you should compare only thursday to thursday. Early shows dont have similar release size. Civil War had very limited early shows only. 

[keysersoze123]

58 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@keysersoze123 can you check Spider-man?

Ok. its doing well but release is very limited and at MTC1 its only standard shows and that too at $5 ticket price everywhere. I dont think its going to even hit 1m. 

 

Anyway

 

Spidey Monday MTC1 - 25699/49929 128495.00 318 shows

 

 

Also Civil War Friday for reference - 115641/710535 1944262.87 3618 shows

 

Since you said 7m TF, it did not over index that much today.  

Edited April 13 by keysersoze123

[poweranimals]

On 4/10/2024 at 1:51 PM, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

 

Already really miss your presence at Box Office Pro, @Shawn Robbins! BOP have wasted no time in starting to circle the drain. In today's Weekend "Preview" Predictions, they give a $10 million OW range of $20-30 M for Civil War.... and even more alarmingly, they incorrectly state that *Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare* is opening this weekend. Also no weekend chart, no real data. There is nothing "Pro" about  BOP anymore. #BoxOfficeAmateurish

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-preview-civil-war-aims-to-unseat-godzilla-x-kong-from-top-spot/

 

 

It looks like they ditched the charts for Long Range tracking as well.

[poweranimals]

On 4/4/2024 at 12:53 PM, Shawn Robbins said:

Hey All,

 

Some news to share.

 

I've left Boxoffice.com (BOP) as of this week. I'll have more news eventually, but just wanted to mention that I am no longer delivering forecasts for the weekend or long range on their website. If anyone asks or mentions it in the thread or the forum in general, I kindly ask anyone that can to please let them know about the change so I can try to limit the questions tagging me about it or what their site publishes going forward.

 

Thanks so much for all your support, friends. More to come.

 

Shawn

I just saw this post. I was wondering why the site went downhill. Now I know why.

[vafrow]

On 4/7/2024 at 7:50 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-26, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales since T-40: 0

Growth: 100%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 3/6

Late Evening: 1/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 4/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 0/2

 

EA sales

Total: 21

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Nothing is happening on sales this far out. I'm still reluctant to even comp it.

 

The EA show is difficult to track due to site glitches.  

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-20, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 6

New Sales since T-26: 2

Growth: 50%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.6

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 5/6

Late Evening: 1/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 6/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 0/2

 

EA sales

Total: 29

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.857x Wonka for $3.0M

0.316x GB:FE for $1.5M

 

Comps (includes EA)

5.00x Wonka for $17.5M

1.842x GB:FE for $8.7M

 

I'm really unsure how to handle the EA sales at this point. It's outpacing the previews by quite a bit. With pretty much every theatre offering EA, I think it's just functioning as opening day.

 

I've set comps both ways, including EAs and not, and it gives widely different numbers.

 

I'm open to advice on how to handle this. I'm also limited on comps still. By next week, I'll have more options. 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-28 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 14

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 13/7

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 8/6

VIP: 5/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 12

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 0

 

Zero sales day. 

 

What's interesting that's probably been in effect for a few weeks now, is that MTC4 has increased the premium for Dolby theatres. I'm pretty sure it was $3 not that long ago. It's now $5. There's been a baseline price increase not that long ago as well.

 

They also added a service fee for booking online tickets about a year ago that's been controversial, and being challenged by Canada's Competition Bureau as a form of drip pricing. This has been interesting, as it's been a pretty transparent way for the chain to increase revenues, but not adding it to the box office and sharing with studios.

 

I'm not sure if the various price increases has to do with anticipation of having to drop the service fee if they lose the lawsuit.

 

Regardless, this adds a twist to comps. Most big new releases still skew heavily to premium formats, and probably helps push up sales.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-27 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 14

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 13/7

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 8/6

VIP: 5/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 14

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 0

 

Comps

1.120x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview)

0.058x Dune 2 (previews only) for $0.6M

 

I don't have a lot of comp options for this far out. For an established brand though, it's not doing tremendously. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[abracadabra1998]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

you should compare only thursday to thursday. Early shows dont have similar release size. Civil War had very limited early shows only. 

Good call, will do!!

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Abigail	T-6	Jax	5	16	4	14	2,051	0.68%
		Phx	6	15	0	13	2,900	0.45%
		Ral	8	17	-1	13	1,989	0.65%
	Total		19	48	3	40	6,940	0.58%
Spy x Family	T-6	Jax	5	16	2	75	1,658	4.52%
		Phx	6	18	0	78	3,928	1.99%
		Ral	8	22	6	66	2,036	3.24%
	Total		19	56	8	219	7,622	2.87%
Ungentlemanly	T-6	Jax	5	11	2	14	997	1.40%
		Phx	6	12	1	20	1,338	1.49%
		Ral	8	11	3	14	1,139	1.23%
	Total		19	34	6	48	3,474	1.38%
Ungentlemanly (EA)	T-1	Jax	3	4	12	126	383	32.90%
		Phx	5	6	22	119	665	17.89%
		Ral	4	4	32	150	467	32.12%
	Total		12	14	66	395	1,515	26.07%

 

Spy x Family T-6 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .23x (1.01m)

 - JJK:0 - missed

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .183x (909k)

 - One Piece - .433x (751k)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-1 adjusted comps (EA)

- NTTD (EA) - missed

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .229x (886k)

 - Barbie (EA) - .598x (657k)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .531x (522k)

 - TMNT (EA) - .495x (866k)

 - Transformers (EA) - .54x (811k)

 

Size adjusted average - 580k (NTTD brings the average up)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-6 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .505x (615k)

 - Equalizer 3 - .19x (594k)

 - Turtles - .136x (462k)

 

Abigail T-6 comps

 - Talk to Me - .741x (922k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Insidious 5 - .244x (1.22m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Abigail	T-5	Jax	5	16	0	14	2,051	0.68%
		Phx	6	15	4	17	2,900	0.59%
		Ral	8	17	4	17	1,989	0.85%
	Total		19	48	8	48	6,940	0.69%
Spy x Family	T-5	Jax	5	16	0	75	1,658	4.52%
		Phx	6	18	4	82	3,928	2.09%
		Ral	8	22	4	70	2,036	3.44%
	Total		19	56	8	227	7,622	2.98%
Ungentlemanly	T-5	Jax	5	11	1	15	997	1.50%
		Phx	6	12	1	21	1,338	1.57%
		Ral	8	11	-2	12	1,139	1.05%
	Total		19	34	0	48	3,474	1.38%
Ungentlemanly (EA)	T-0	Jax	3	4	8	134	383	34.99%
		Phx	5	6	34	153	665	23.01%
		Ral	4	4	27	177	467	37.90%
	Total		12	14	69	464	1,515	30.63%

 

Spy x Family T-5 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .231x (1.02m)

 - JJK:0 - missed

 - Demon Slayer 2 - missed

 - One Piece - .414x (719k)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-0 adjusted comps (EA)

- NTTD (EA) - missed

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .248x (958k)

 - Barbie (EA) - .697x (766k)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .523x (514k)

 - TMNT (EA) - .441x (773k)

 - Transformers (EA) - .513x (770k)

 - Bullet Train (EA) - 1.8x (2.3m)

 - Strays (EA) - 4.55m (1.25m)

 - Creed III (EA) - 1.2x (981k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1m.   I'd like to see a full run of one of the MTCs on this to see how it's performing elsewhere.  I think this has a chance to hit 1m with how wide the EA shows are (~920 theaters).  The three comps I added on the bottom along with Top Gun were the closest in terms of show count, so I lean more heavily on those comps.

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-5 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .444x (541k)

 - Equalizer 3 - .171x (534k)

 - Turtles - .124x (421k)

 - Civil War - .21x (498k)

 

We'll see how the reactions to EA go.  I could see this having a good final week.

 

Abigail T-5 comps

 - Talk to Me - .649x (806k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Insidious 5 - .251x (1.26m)

 - Blackening - 1.33x (1m)

 - Firestarter - 1.455x (558k)

 - First Omen - 2.182x (1.58m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Unsung Hero	T-13	Jax	4	6	2	23	791	2.91%
		Phx	5	10	0	12	1,992	0.60%
		Ral	7	11	0	9	980	0.92%
	Total		16	27	2	44	3,763	1.17%
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-12	Jax	5	5	18	160	644	24.84%
		Phx	5	7	11	254	725	35.03%
		Ral	7	8	6	220	730	30.14%
	Total		17	20	35	634	2,099	30.20%

 

T-13 (Total) comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .582x (1.92m)

 - Sound of Freedom - .787x (4.09m)

 - Left Behind - 7.618x (4.65m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Challengers	T-12	Jax	5	19	5	5	3,641	0.14%
		Phx	6	17	20	20	2,336	0.86%
		Ral	6	15	13	13	2,455	0.53%
	Total		17	51	38	38	8,432	0.45%
Challengers (EA)	T-9	Jax	5	5	9	9	1,392	0.65%
		Phx	1	1	3	3	208	1.44%
		Ral	2	2	8	8	412	1.94%
	Total		8	8	20	20	2,012	0.99%
Unsung Hero	T-12	Jax	5	9	5	28	1,073	2.61%
		Phx	5	10	4	16	1,992	0.80%
		Ral	7	11	4	13	980	1.33%
	Total		17	30	13	57	4,045	1.41%
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-11	Jax	5	5	34	194	644	30.12%
		Phx	5	7	20	274	725	37.79%
		Ral	7	8	31	251	730	34.38%
	Total		17	20	85	719	2,099	34.25%

 

Unsung Hero (Total) T-12 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .658x (2.17m)

 - Sound of Freedom - .81x (4.21m)

 - Left Behind - 7.462x (4.56m)

 

Challengers (Total) T-12 comps

 - I Wanna Dance - .707x (529k)

 - Elvis (Total) - .191x (684k)

 

I'll add more comps as they come available

[vale9001]

challengers can  make a cute opening but there is no reason to be a breakout right now. The average american doesn't know what a Guadagnino is and the two main male actors are unknown. For a romantic comedy the male actor is important to sell the movie. Zendaya has yet to prove she can sell a movie as main star and anyways i don't see her being like a julia roberts- sandra bullock, so someone really appeling to women for a female movie. Her audience really seems just kids and internet stans.

 

Can became a big hit if it's actually really a good movie for this kind of audience and can reach them with WOM.

 

But after even Poor things made just 35M total in the Us with christmas, emma stone, awards season etc... i'm not very positive about adult dramas in the Us right now. 

 

 

Edited April 13 by vale9001

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Civil War (Fri)

745/14,116

 

Comps

 - Bullet Train - .822x (6.78m)

 - Monkey Man - 2.5x (6.96m)

 - Beast - 1.966x (6.65m)

Santikos Tracking

 

Civil War (Sat)

893/13,837

 

Comps

 - Bullet Train - .886x (8.58m)

 - Beast - 2.835x (12.14m)

 - Don't Worry Darling - 1.481x (8.56m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 7.92m true Fri)

 - Bullet Train - 10.03m

 - Elvis - 9.92m

 - Crawdads - 9.44m

 - Oppenheimer - 9.39m

 

Looking at around 9.8m for Saturday based on this chain.  Sounds high to me though

[Boxofficerules]

I could be wrong but it feels like there is very little buzz on the three upcoming horror movies, Abigail, Tarot and The Strangers.

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Civil War (Sat)

893/13,837

 

Comps

 - Bullet Train - .886x (8.58m)

 - Beast - 2.835x (12.14m)

 - Don't Worry Darling - 1.481x (8.56m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 7.92m true Fri)

 - Bullet Train - 10.03m

 - Elvis - 9.92m

 - Crawdads - 9.44m

 - Oppenheimer - 9.39m

 

Looking at around 9.8m for Saturday based on this chain.  Sounds high to me though

 

I had never heard of Santikos before coming to BOT, so I just researched it a bit. All its 10 theaters emanate out of its headquarters in San Antonio ("Remember the Alamo!"), TX, an area which has seen its share of wars over time. Pure spitball that this area might be especially primed to see a movie depicting a Texas uprising against larger government (which is mentioned in trailers). It's also  not exactly a secret that Texans like to joke about Texas being its own country anyway. I don't mean this disparagingly; pre-COVID, I spent weeks at a time for work in Houston & Dallas, and I met plenty of well-educated lifelong Texans (many liberal) who still joked with barely concealed pride about Texas being so different from the rest of the US. The Texas-California alliance against the US mentioned in CW trailers could be subliminal catnip in the Santikos geography. Further, San Antonio is educated and somewhat liberal from everything I've read, so another decent chunk of its population might also be the A24 types. All that is to say, I would not be surprised to see these theaters overindexing.

 

I also read that "Santikos Entertainment is a for-profit company that exists for the sole purpose of giving back to non-profits in the San Antonio area in the form of donations, sponsorships, grants, and programming." That makes it fairly unique among theater chains, and again suggests that it might attract a larger percentage of the audience that wants to feel like their ticket money is going to local causes and might already know about A24/Garland.

 

Again, nothing above meant as disparaging, just observational.

 

I'm going to especially enjoy following your Santikos tracking moving forward.

 

Edited April 13 by Jerri Blank-Diggler

[el sid]

Abigail, counted yesterday for Friday, had 77 sold tickets. 7 days left.

 

Comps (all four films counted on Monday of the release week for Friday = 3 days left for Abigail to come closer or overtake): The Invitation (6.8M OW) had 87 sold tickets,

Prey of the Devil (7.2M) had 149,

M3gan (30.5M) had 247 

and Old (16.9M) had 150 sold tickets.

The First Omen (8.4M) had on Tuesday of the release week for Friday 116 sold tickets.

And The Last Voyage of the Demeter (6.5M) had with 8 days left (= on Thursday before the release week for Friday) 56 sold tickets.

 

Ok sales so far, not great, not bad.

 

Tarot showed some small signs of life in my theaters and had yesterday for Thursday, May 2, 28 sold tickets (14 in the AMC Metreon in San Francisco and also 14 in the Universal Cinema in LA).

Edited April 13 by el sid

[jeffthehat]

7 hours ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

 

I had never heard of Santikos before coming to BOT, so I just researched it a bit. All its 10 theaters emanate out of its headquarters in San Antonio ("Remember the Alamo!"), TX, an area which has seen its share of wars over time. Pure spitball that this area might be especially primed to see a movie depicting a Texas uprising against larger government (which is mentioned in trailers). It's also  not exactly a secret that Texans like to joke about Texas being its own country anyway. I don't mean this disparagingly; pre-COVID, I spent weeks at a time for work in Houston & Dallas, and I met plenty of well-educated lifelong Texans (many liberal) who still joked with barely concealed pride about Texas being so different from the rest of the US. The Texas-California alliance against the US mentioned in CW trailers could be subliminal catnip in the Santikos geography. Further, San Antonio is educated and somewhat liberal from everything I've read, so another decent chunk of its population might also be the A24 types. All that is to say, I would not be surprised to see these theaters overindexing.

 

I also read that "Santikos Entertainment is a for-profit company that exists for the sole purpose of giving back to non-profits in the San Antonio area in the form of donations, sponsorships, grants, and programming." That makes it fairly unique among theater chains, and again suggests that it might attract a larger percentage of the audience that wants to feel like their ticket money is going to local causes and might already know about A24/Garland.

 

Again, nothing above meant as disparaging, just observational.

 

I'm going to especially enjoy following your Santikos tracking moving forward.

 

It’s always fun digging into the nuances of regional tracking. I started tracking because I wanted to see how well TS Eras was doing in the South  
 

A 33% increase Saturday from true Friday is fairly standard though. Wouldn’t surprise me if Santikos gave the real number today 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/12/2024 at 5:10 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

CHALLENGERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
310	286	58195	0.49%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

(0.242x) of Civil War $703K

 

Has a good amount of showings but no early signs of a breakout. It's still very early though 

FLORIDA 

 

CHALLENGERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
310	375	58195	0.64%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

89

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

(0.309x) of Civil War $895K

 

Pretty big increase today