The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Eric is Anxious]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Regal gonna irritate trackers again, offering no upcharge IMAX for Furiosa

lol they did this for both Fall Guy and Apes. Not sure what the deal is, but I'll gladly take it!

[Squire]

7 minutes ago, Eric the Ape said:

Quorum Updates

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-16: 36.84% Awareness, 40.63% Interest

The Garfield Movie T-16: 50.59% Awareness, 50.31% Interest

The Bikeriders T-44: 14.51% Awareness, 34.91% Interest

Despicable Me 4 T-56: 56.36% Awareness, 57.8% Interest

It Ends with Us T-93: 15.74% Awareness, 40.8% Interest

Mickey 17 T-268: 11.52% Awareness, 36.18% Interest

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-2: 65.69% Awareness, 57.11% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 62% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 29% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 90% chance of 40M, 80% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 80M, 20% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 40M, 32% chance of 50M, 24% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 92% chance of 40M, 69% chance of 50M, 61% chance of 60M, 38% chance of 70M, 31% chance of 80M, 15% chance of 100M

 

The Watchers T-30: 30.06% Awareness, 44.93% Interest

Final Awareness: 81% chance of 10M, 56% chance of 20M, 34% chance of 30M, 12% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 62% chance of 20M, 37% chance of 30M, 12% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 58% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M, 10% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 67% chance of 10M, 37% chance of 20M, 17% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 40M

 

Inside Out 2 T-37: 51.95% Awareness, 52.72% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 79% chance of 50M, 58% chance of 60M, 53% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 32% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 33% chance of 70M

T-30 Interest: 51% chance of 50M, 40% chance of 60M, 29% chance of 70M, 26% chance of 80M, 23% chance of 90M, 20% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 90M, 40% chance of 100M

 

MaXXXine T-58: 16.92% Awareness, 35.73% Interest

 

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 46% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 34% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 40% chance of 10M

Furiosa’s Quorum numbers continue to be meh. 

[Shawn Robbins]

APES weekend forecast is up on the site and Substack. Still debating how we'll go about posting these week-to-week, whether its sharing the site link or Substack directly (probably the latter).

 

https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/weekend-forecast-kingdom-of-the-planet?r=30nzs5

 

https://boxofficetheory.com/weekend-forecast-kingdom-of-the-planet-of-the-apes-tracking-for-42-50m-million-mothers-day-weekend/

[misterpepp]

Despicable Me 4 on sale June 5

[Maggie]

How's Furiosa doing?

[AniNate]

17 Thursday preview tickets sold at Tinseltown already, seems promising

 

EDIT: and like 30 at Valley View. There's definitely some hype for this

 

 

Edited May 8 by AniNate

[el sid]

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, counted today for tomorrow, had 1.381 sold tickets.

Up modest 12.5% since yesterday.

 

Comps (all five films counted also on Wednesday for Thursday): JWD (18M from previews) had 3.821 sold tickets = 6.5M.

Civil War (2.6M) had 1.130 = 3.2M.

BT (4.6M) had 1.508 = 4.2M.

The Fall Guy (2.35M) had 865 = 3.75M.

Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.062 = 4.8M.

And GxK ("worst case scenario" 9.2M) had 1 day later, on Thursday for Thursday, 2.015 sold tickets = 6.3M + 1 day left for the Apes.

Average: 4.8M+ (+ because of the 1 day left compared to GxK).

 

The jump could have been a bit bigger but the presale number is still very good and it could/should reach my goal of 80% of GxK by tomorrow. But I have to take into account that Planet of the Apes has worse jump(s) compared to GxK which jumped fine 40% between Tuesday and Thursday in my theaters. And because that normally continues, the gap between GxK and Apes would look bigger on Friday than what we will see tomorrow. In sum that means that the comparison number is actually a bit lower for Planet of the Apes than the number that I will report tomorrow (only compared to GxK, not the other comps).

Edited May 8 by el sid

[misterpepp]

Bad Boys Ride or Die on sale May 16

[CJohn]

Any review bump for Apes?

[Eric is Anxious]

No word on Inside Out 2's sales date? Odd.

[misterpepp]

3 minutes ago, Eric the Ape said:

No word on Inside Out 2's sales date? Odd.

 

May 14

[misterpepp]

It's raining ticket dates!

 

Bikeriders on sale May 26 (I realize this is a Sunday, may be a late night drop or tied to one of those sports game things)

[Eric is Anxious]

10 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

 

May 14

Love you bb

[AniNate]

Is Bikeriders supposed to be like a mainstream middlebrow movie or something? Jeff Nichols has not really given off that vibe in the past

[misterpepp]

Probably the last ticket date today:

 

Haikyu: The Dumpster Battle on sale May 10

[filmlover]

24 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Is Bikeriders supposed to be like a mainstream middlebrow movie or something? Jeff Nichols has not really given off that vibe in the past

It lost its original Q4 date during the strike following festival premieres and was sold off from 20th Century to Focus. It's probably not going to do great regardless given the crowded schedule and how "old news" it feels by now, the June release date was probably the best they could do in terms of the actors being available to do some press for it.

[Pinacolada]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It lost its original Q4 date during the strike following festival premieres and was sold off from 20th Century to Focus. It's probably not going to do great regardless given the crowded schedule and how "old news" it feels by now, the June release date was probably the best they could do in terms of the actors being available to do some press for it.

I'm just hoping for The Bikeriders to open to double digits in the US. That'd be a relative win. I think it's doable, even in this current market, but Focus really needs to start pushing it. This should also just be a mainstream release at Universal, not Focus. 

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
578	4175	112085	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

736

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(0.415x) of Dune 2 $3.86M

(0.744x) of Ghostbusters $3.49M

(0.614x) of Godzilla and Kong $6.13M

Comps average: $4.49M

 

*This is without any EA 

FLORIDA 

 

KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
688	4857	134782	3.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

682

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

110

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.423x) of Dune 2 $3.93M

(0.725x) of Ghostbusters $3.41M

(0.598x) of Godzilla and Kong $5.68M

Comps average: $4.34M

 

Could do $4.5M Thursday depending on walkups tomorrow 

[vafrow]

12 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-2 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 168

New Sales: 34

Growth: 25%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 8.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 12/3

Early Evening: 124/7

Late Evening: 32/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 65/7

IMAX: 45/6

VIP: 56/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 117

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 5

New Sales: 31

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

1.979x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview) for $6.2M

0.140x Dune 2 for $1.4M

1.697x GB:FE for $8.0M

0.338x GxK for $3.4M

0.460x HG: BoSS for $2.6M

 

Average: $4.3M

 

This is a pretty good day, and it's before the review drop.

 

There's lots of variability on the comps, so this could still end up anywhere, but it feels like with EA being strong, the total previews figure can probably get to above $5M.

 

 

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Final EA update , western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

 

 

EA shows 

Sales: 205

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 5

New Sales: 88

Walk up growth: 75%

 

Comp:

1.519x Fall Guy for $1.2M

 

I thought I'd do an EA update.

 

Good walk ups today. Hopefully helped by the reviews. I don't have a lot of EA comps, but fall Guy works well as both were in all five theatres for the Wednesday before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[vafrow]

On 5/4/2024 at 8:23 AM, vafrow said:

 

IF, T-13 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 3

New Sales: 3

Growth: NA

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.2

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 3/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 1/6

Dolby: 2/4

VIP: 0/4

 

Comps

0.125x Wonka for $0.4M

0.056x KFP4 for $0.2M

 

 

100 km radius (40 theatres) track

 

Sales: 35

 

Comp:

0.753x Haunted Mansion for $2.3M

 

Numbers ate still really low, making the standard track fairly useless. I did do a larger 100km radius track, encompassing the broader southern Ontaro market (~8M population, MTC4 being about 70-80% of the market). Even against Haunted Mansion, which underindexed here, it's not doing well. 

 

I'd be curious if it's doing just as bad in other regions in Canada. @DAJK, @Tinalera, if you guys have a chance, can you take a peak. Reynolds should be a draw out of BC I would hope.

 

 

IF, T-9 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 6

New Sales from T-13: 3

Growth: 100%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.5

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 6/7

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 4/6

Dolby: 0/4

VIP: 2/2

 

Comps

0.136x Wonka for $0.5M

0.070x KFP4 for $0.3M

 

Average: $0.4M

 

I've been waiting until this was doing well enough that I felt it was at some level of materiality, but no luck.

 

Since the last update, they released full showtime sets, and it actually lost two showtimes rather than gain.

 

This doing substantially worse than Wonka is a worry. That was a really slow build in my market.

 

From the sound of it, it might be doing better in other Canadian markets, particularly BC. It's not looking great here though.

Edited May 10 by vafrow