The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

Apes having strong walkups again. Not too far off Dune 2 as of 7pm EST

 

Comps are at $17.83M

 

[filmlover]

Interesting that there's still no projection for Back to Black a week out from release. Looking at the sales even for the early shows on Wednesday it's on the anemic side (and nothing that's likely to boost it over the next days). Feels like we're about to see how low a biopic about a famous musician can go.

[emoviefan]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Interesting that there's still no projection for Back to Black a week out from release. Looking at the sales even for the early shows on Wednesday it's on the anemic side (and nothing that's likely to boost it over the next days). Feels like we're about to see how low a biopic about a famous musician can go.

I still have not seen a trailer for this in front of anything and there are some trailers I have seen a lot to the point of not again ugh. A post covid thing that many have experienced I think.

[abracadabra1998]

30 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Interesting that there's still no projection for Back to Black a week out from release. Looking at the sales even for the early shows on Wednesday it's on the anemic side (and nothing that's likely to boost it over the next days). Feels like we're about to see how low a biopic about a famous musician can go.

I will start tracking that on Sunday, T-4. Same with Strangers Chapter 1

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Obviously not all the trackers can track till final shows but I checked at 9PM PST. walkups were easily the strongest in long time. I dont know what would be a good comp. May be last Transformers movie. But this felt even stronger. @charlie Jatinder has better data on how good it was relative to recent releases. 

 

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Obviously not all the trackers can track till final shows but I checked at 9PM PST. walkups were easily the strongest in long time. I dont know what would be a good comp. May be last Transformers movie. But this felt even stronger. @charlie Jatinder has better data on how good it was relative to recent releases. 

As I posted y’day, walkups were incredible.

 

In fact the final 3 days have been awesome. A week out there was genuine chance of it ending sub $40M but turned out strongly in final days to looking like high 40s and with great walkups now $52m+

[charlie Jatinder]

58 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Apes having strong walkups again. Not too far off Dune 2 as of 7pm EST

 

Comps are at $17.83M

 

May be use GxK. Dune 2 is a very bad comp for most films. Yes it may work coincidentally with something.

 

looks like $14.5-15M

[Pinacolada]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

 

God it would be awesome if this broke out. Even better if it was number one Memorial day weekend over Garfield. Probably a lot to ask. Will see.

Yeah im just opening for a similar opening to Fury Road. Maybe 50m over the 4 day weekend? I'd be fine with that. The headlines would look nice. A run similar to Fury Road I think would be fine enough to get WB to greenlight Miller making another Mad Max movie (hopefully a proper Mad Max movie). 

 

I'm curious what the final budget will be for Furiosa. I couldn't see anything less than 150m and honestly closer to 180m, given how overinflated budgets r these days. But this got MASSIVE tax credits from Australia. So it'd be cool if it came in towards that lower number

[filmlover]

40 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I still have not seen a trailer for this in front of anything and there are some trailers I have seen a lot to the point of not again ugh. A post covid thing that many have experienced I think.

tbh the terrible reviews were likely the death sentence for this. Can't blame the studio for dumping it, especially when even her fans seems seemed to view the existence of this as more exploitative than celebratory. 

 

But luckily for the movie, it's done well in the UK where it's been out for weeks, which is probably all Mitch Winehouse cares about (along with making additional money off of her music), so everyone else shrugging it off is likely irrelevant.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/7/2024 at 9:44 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

IF

 

Thursday 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
405	1301	80027	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

35

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

17

 

COMPS

T-9

(0.893x) of Civil War $2.59M

(0.937x) of Fall Guy $2.15M

Comps AVG: $2.37M

 

Pace is collapsing a bit. Continues its downward trend. 

FLORIDA 

IF

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
407	1524	80159	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

87

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

COMPS

T-6

(0.826x) of Civil War $2.40M

(1.008x) of Fall Guy $2.32M

Comps AVG: $2.36M 

not much growth 

[TheFlatLannister]

47 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

May be use GxK. Dune 2 is a very bad comp for most films. Yes it may work coincidentally with something.

 

looks like $14.5-15M

GvK just a bit over $15M as of 9pm

 

$15.7M 
(16.9k seats sold for Apes vs 29k seats sold for GvK) 

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

A B??? This is gonna kill its legs but what a bizarre score. There’s no way this should be a B. 

[emoviefan]

What the Fuck is with the B Cinema score. Like that makes no sense at all.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Unfortunately this is likely a case of the masses considering the movie slow, lumbering and boring, and rejecting it as a result. It happens sometimes. Some movies, no matter how hard the people involved try, are simply not going to resonate with people.

[charlie Jatinder]

Furiosa MiniTC2 T-13 days

 

Previews - 333/34908 (135 showings) $5.4K

 

Comps

0.29x Dune 2 first 3 days - $2.7M

0.6x HG:BoSS - $3.4M

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Back to Black	T-6	Jax	5	11	4	4	986	0.41%
		Phx	6	15	13	13	1,508	0.86%
		Ral	7	14	14	14	1,316	1.06%
	Total		18	40	31	31	3,810	0.81%
Back to Black (EA)	T-5	Jax	2	2	9	9	395	2.28%
		Phx	1	1	8	8	208	3.85%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	0	0%
	Total		4	4	17	17	603	2.82%
IF	T-6	Jax	5	22	14	87	3,641	2.39%
		Phx	7	27	4	55	4,077	1.35%
		Ral	8	33	1	45	4,751	0.95%
	Total		20	82	19	187	12,469	1.50%
The Strangers	T-6	Jax	5	11	0	21	1,110	1.89%
		Phx	6	13	8	27	1,530	1.76%
		Ral	7	14	2	28	1,368	2.05%
	Total		18	38	10	76	4,008	1.90%

 

IF T-6 adjusted comps (comps with EA)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .235x (1.51m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .367x (1.14m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .205x (1.01m)

 - Fall Guy (Total) - .751x (1.94m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .337x (1.52m)

 

 

IF T-6 adjusted comps (no EA)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .31x (1.58m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - .562x (1.63m)

 - TMNT (Thu) - .531x (1.8m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - .597x (2m)

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 1.281x (2.47m)

 - Lightyear (Thu) - .38x (1.53m)

 - Elemental - .858x (1.81m)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - 4.349x (4.15m)

 

Strangers T-6 adjusted comps

 - Insidious 5 - .463x (2.32m)

 - Talk to Me - 1.407x (1.75m)

 - Abigail - 1.9x (1.9m)

 - Evil Dead Rise - missed

 - Candyman - .8x (1.61m)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - .563x (1.5m)

 - Beast - 1.551x (1.47m)

 - Nun II - .539x (1.37m)

 - Smile (Thu) - .768x (1.34m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.63m

 

Back to Black (Total) T-6 adjusted comps

 - Respect - 1x (689k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .304x (227k)

 - House of Gucci - .522x (719k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Back to Black	T-5	Jax	5	11	0	4	986	0.41%
		Phx	6	15	6	19	1,508	1.26%
		Ral	7	14	0	14	1,316	1.06%
	Total		18	40	6	37	3,810	0.97%
Back to Black (EA)	T-4	Jax	2	2	1	10	395	2.53%
		Phx	1	1	2	10	208	4.81%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	0	0.00%
	Total		4	4	3	20	603	3.32%
IF	T-5	Jax	5	22	7	94	3,641	2.58%
		Phx	7	27	6	61	4,077	1.50%
		Ral	8	33	0	45	4,751	0.95%
	Total		20	82	13	200	12,469	1.60%
The Strangers	T-5	Jax	5	11	2	23	1,110	2.07%
		Phx	6	13	4	31	1,530	2.03%
		Ral	7	14	5	33	1,368	2.41%
	Total		18	38	11	87	4,008	2.17%

 

IF T-5 adjusted comps (comps with EA)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .223x (1.43m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .344x (1.07m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .195x (959k)

 - Fall Guy (Total) - .741x (1.91m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .331x (1.49m)

 

 

IF T-5 adjusted comps (no EA)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .297x (1.52m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Thu) - .526x (1.53m)

 - TMNT (Thu) - .518x (1.76m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - .559x (1.87m)

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 1.227x (2.36m)

 - Lightyear (Thu) - .371x (1.49m)

 - Elemental - .847x (1.8m)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - 4.651x (4.44m)

 

Strangers T-5 adjusted comps

 - Insidious 5 - .455x (2.28m)

 - Talk to Me - 1.176x (1.46m)

 - Abigail - 1.81x (1.81m)

 - Evil Dead Rise - missed

 - Candyman - .829x (1.67m)

 - Black Phone (Thu) - .554x (1.47m)

 - Beast - 1.5x (1.42m)

 - Nun II - .503x (1.28m)

 - Smile (Thu) - missed

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.59m

 

Back to Black (Total) T-5 adjusted comps

 - Respect - 1.188x (818k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .333x (249k)

 - House of Gucci - .416x (573k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Kingdom of Apes (Fri) - 2,725/22,596

 - Godzilla x Kong - .334x (9.23m)

 - Oppenheimer - .622x (14.01m)

 - Dune Part 2 - .719x (14.54m)

 

A ~5m true previews would put the adjusted comps at ~17m for true Friday.  My regionals didn't capture the big lift that others were seeing, but the other samples were a much wider set so it sounds like good things are in store for the weekend!

 

Kingdom of Apes (Sat) - 1,868/22,366

 - Oppenheimer - .464x (12.18m)

 - Avatar 2 - .279x (12.39m)

 

If I use a more realistic 16m for true Fri I would get around ~16.5m Sat, but growth pattern would predict even higher

Santikos Tracking

 

Kingdom of Apes (Sat) - 3,532/22,885

 - Godzilla x Kong - .525x (13.87m)

 - Oppenheimer - .684x (17.96m)

 - Dune Part 2 - .762x (21.88m)

 

It looks like it may have hit the 16m Fri, so I'll adjust from that.

 

Adjusted comps

 - Godzilla x Kong - 24.05m

 - Dune part 2 - 24.08m

 - Oppenheimer - 20.51m

 - JW3 - 22.53m

 

This is what I was referring to with the growth pattern.  I was expecting a +83% for today, but it went even higher with a +89%!  Most of the movies on my sheet are adjusting between 20m and 24m so I'll go with 22.5m Saturday.

[vafrow]

On 5/10/2024 at 6:32 AM, vafrow said:

 

IF, T-7 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 8

New Sales from T-19: 2

Growth: 33%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.7

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 8/7

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 4/6

Dolby: 0/4

VIP: 4/2

 

Comps

0.151x Wonka for $0.5M

0.071x KFP4 for $0.3M

 

Average: $0.4M

 

Still nothing really happening here. I might aim to do a wider pull to see if other parts of the region are doing better. Or maybe I'll try and look at Friday/Saturday.

 

IF, T-6 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 8

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.7

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 8/7

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 4/6

Dolby: 0/4

VIP: 4/2

 

Comps

0.151x Wonka for $0.5M

0.059x KFP4 for $0.2M

 

Average: $0.4M

 

Still nothing happening. I did check Friday sales, and it was a lot stronger with 51 tickets sold. That's better, but still not tremendous. I also checked the wider radius, where it's pretty much exactly where Haunted Mansion was, which hit $3.1 opening.

 

[vafrow]

On 5/10/2024 at 6:44 AM, vafrow said:

 

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, D2, T-14 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 29

New Sales: 10

Growth: 53%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.7

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 2/3

Early Evening: 24/7

Late Evening: 3/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 2/4

IMAX: 22/6

VIP: 3/5

4DX: 2/2

 

Day 2 Comps

0.200x Dune 2 for $2.0M

2.231x KOTPOTA for ???

0.382x HG:BoSS for $2.2M

 

Average: 2.1M

 

It was a mediocre day 2. The comps are low, but the POTA comp will increase once we have a number for today, but, once I switch to T minus comps, it comes back down to earth quickly. Switching today would leave Furiosa at 0.573 of POTA. 

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, T-13 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 34

New Sales: 5

Growth: 17%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 2/3

Early Evening: 29/7

Late Evening: 3/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 2/4

IMAX: 25/6

VIP: 3/5

4DX: 2/2

 

T-13 Comps

0.075x Dune 2 for $0.8M

0.773x KOTPOTA for $3.9M

0.354x HG:BoSS for $2.0M

 

Average: $2.2M

 

I switched comps to T-13, which dropped numbers quite a bit.

 

[vafrow]

On 5/4/2024 at 12:06 PM, vafrow said:

 

The Garfield Movie, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-20, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 0

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.0

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 0/3

Early Evening: 0/5

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 0/4

3D Regular: 0/6

Dolby: 0/2

3D Dolby: 0/2

 

EA - Sunday May 19

Sales: 3

Showtimes: 2

Theatres: 2

 

100km radius 

Previews: 18 (38 theatres)

EA: 44 (13 theatres)

 

Still no sales for my core sample for previews. But I did the larger sweep, which shows the interest right now is the Sunday early access shows. Looking at sales patterns, it's mainly blocks of 3/4 tickets, so likely families grabbing some. It's worth nothing that the May holiday in Canada is the weekend of May 17-20th, not the weekend after with Memorial Day. I can see families prioritizing getting out the holiday weekend when they have more time.

 

 

 

The Garfield Movie, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-13, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales: 4

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.3

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 4/3

Early Evening: 0/5

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 4/4

3D Regular: 0/6

Dolby: 0/2

3D Dolby: 0/2

 

EA - Sunday May 19

Sales: 10

Showtimes: 2

Theatres: 2

 

Comps

0.074x KFP4 for $0.3M

0.167x Wonka for $0.6M

 

Average: $0.4M

 

At least there's some sales on the board. Comps don't paint a pretty picture though. EA shows are doing okay. Maybe that helps kick start something.

  

[AniNate]

I definitely haven't seen as much of a rush here with Garfield as with IF. I'm sure part of it is the latter has been promoted more to adults and is first out, but I did expect a little more from Garfield given the OS breakouts, earlier presale start, and presumably being a safer bet for grandparents familiar with the comic strip who want to take their kids out for Memorial weekend.