The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[YM!]

As for DP3, quick check as I’m at work but Like it’s already at half of Furiosa’s T-4 sales here in the past ten minutes in just two of the theaters PLF shows.

[vafrow]

Around 40 minutes into Deadpool and Wolverine for my area,

 

It's almost triple where Dune 2 was on my first measurement for that, which was Day 2.

 

It's also a bit ahead of my first measurement for The Marvels, which was T-21, and I think about a week into sales.

 

I'll do a proper count around lunchtime, with full breakdown of sales. They're really leaning into 3D showings. I get the desire for theatres to get the extra premium, but I can't see a lot of people wanting to see this in 3D.

[justnumbers]

I will say that I have a very good feeling about Furiosa. Thinking 45M-50M OW.

 

And Garfields sales pretty much align with my own personal barometer.

[SpiderByte]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I'll do a proper count around lunchtime, with full breakdown of sales. They're really leaning into 3D showings. I get the desire for theatres to get the extra premium, but I can't see a lot of people wanting to see this in 3D.

If it's the only option they'll take it, which is basically how pretty much all non avatar/animated 3D has worked for the last 2 decades.

[AniNate]

Good lord already 80+ Thursday previews sold for Deadwolv at Canton

[TalismanRing]

NYC Regal Local - DW

 

17 shows (3 3D, 3 RPX, 11 Reg 2)

 

102 tickets sold for first hour - almost half for the 7pm RPX showing

 

[Will hopefully update at midnight or after 24 hr cycle]

 

COMPS

 

Monday opening week

Furiousa -  43 (10:30am)

John Wick 4: 109  (11pm)

Indy 5: 57 (6:30pm)

Marvels: 91 (11pm)

Eternals: 266 (7pm)

Black Widow: 239 (5pm)

Venom 2: 131 (6pm)

Oppenheimer: 100 (Midnight)

Barbie: 556 (Midnight)

 

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Almost crossed GoTG3 day one sales at MiniTC2.

[WebSurfer]

Yeah, Disney's gonna own the box office this summer.

[Flip]

This is going to get lost in all the Deadpool posts, but just looking at some theaters near me, Haikyu is outselling Spy x Family

[AniNate]

1 minute ago, Flip said:

This is going to get lost in all the Deadpool posts, but just looking at some theaters near me, Haikyu is outselling Spy x Family

 

Wouldn't be super shocked by that given how dead May 31 is

[Flip]

Also since no one mentioned it, there’s also a fan event on the 25th for Deadpool 

[AJG]

7 minutes ago, Flip said:

This is going to get lost in all the Deadpool posts, but just looking at some theaters near me, Haikyu is outselling Spy x Family

im guessing Haikyu is cannon and SpYFamily in non-cannon?

[keysersoze123]

No full data yet but show counts for previews

MTC1 - 7427

MTC2 - 2914

 

MTC1 shows they are ready for big numbers. MTC2 is more conservative and numbers will go up close to release. 

 

If I have to guess based on really early indications, its OD between Guardians 3 and Ant 3 at MTC1. MTC2 I unfortunately cannot get data. 

[AniNate]

Thursday sales are still largely biased towards the primetime evening showings. There may be FOMO but not quite enough for people to take off work early for it apparently.

[vafrow]

Deadpool and Wolverine, Hour 2, T-67, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 588

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 14.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 38/13

Early Evening: 407/14

Late Evening: 143/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (531/21)

Regular: 1/1

Dolby: 88/5

IMAX: 350/4

VIP: 90/8

4DX: 2/3

 

3D (57/20)

Regular: 8/2

Dolby: 15/4

IMAX: 13/2

VIP: 27/6

 

Comps 

4.941x Day 2 of Dune 2 for $49.4M

2.154x Day 7 of The Marvels for $14.2M

3.178x Day 2 of FNAF for $32.7M

0.908x Estimated Hour 2 of Taylor Swift Eras Tour for $34.2M

 

Average: $32.6M

 

First off, heavy dose of salt recommended with all figures.

 

I lack other MCU day 1 sales, so I've cobbled together what I have. I took anything that got off to a hot start even with imperfect comparisons. FNAF for example went on sale only a week before. For Eras Tour, I tracked a 10 theatre sample or so, so I've taken an estimate of how that breaks down to my five theatre sample.

 

Numbers were pulled around 11:00 am.l, so two hours worth of data.

 

Also worth noting is the 3D showings. As mentioned earlier, the chain is pushing the format for the ticket premium. The exception is the IMAX showings, where I think they know people just want the 2D experience. It's lead to 60% of sales being those four IMAX showings.

 

I might try and pull another set tonight to track progress. 

[NGGKroze]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Deadpool and Wolverine, Hour 2, T-67, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Average: $32.6M

 

 

Seams about right. Thor 4 and Wakanda hovered almost to 30M. I know those two were in the days before the "MCU is dead", but the hype for DP3 is there. Perhaps close to release could give a better notion for 30M+ and why not DS2 36M.

[AnthonyJPHer]

Deadpool and Wolverine is off to a hot start!

 

At my theater in my town, there has been 8 tickets sold. That sounds low but it’s actually a lot, especially this far out and because Inside Out 2 hasn’t sold any tickets at my theater yet.

 

Overall, looking more broadly at 4 theaters I track other than my own, there is a mind- boggling 1,029 tickets sold! 

 

This is already more than Inside Out 2.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Almost crossed GoTG3 day one sales at MiniTC2.

It’s done.

[el sid]

Yes, almost nobody will notice but my report is rather for completeness anyway ;).

Garfield, counted today for Thursday had 142 sold tickets (in 7 theaters).

 

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): IF (no EA shows, 1.75M from previews) had 274 sold tickets = 0.9M. 

Lyle (575k) had 49 = 1.9M. 

Migration (1.5M) had 111 = 1.9M. 

Dolittle (925k) had 156 = 0.85M. 

And Wonka (3.5M, a bad comp last week) had 857 sold tickets = 0.6M. 

Average: 1.2M. 

 

So also in my theaters not much to see yet. There is some acceleration - Garfield had last Monday not more than 43 sold tickets. So far I don't worry because things didn't start to look better for IF till early Thursday plus Garfield had EA shows and it is/was a holiday weekend. 

[SpiderByte]

I'm happy it's doing well because I've talked a lot about how much I think it'll make a billion and it's way to late for me to take it all back