The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I feel like the strikes utterly destroyed Bikeriders's prospects. Disney dropping it right after the first marketing material was released, only for the mostly unsuccessful Focus to get it, and being pushed off by half a year as a result is going to hurt it incredibly badly.

Pretty sure June was probably the only time they were going to be able to get Comer/Butler/Hardy back together to promote it, or else sending it out with hardly any promo tour at all. Everyone's schedules got backed up with other projects due to the strikes.

 

29 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

I feel like they could've opened bigger than 2500 theaters. That's wide enough but thats still pretty small

To be fair, from what I'm seeing, its theater space is definitely on the limited side (mid-sized theaters at most - naturally, Inside Out and Bad Boys are keeping all of the bigger ones). And two more aspiring tentpoles are opening over the following two weekends. They're basically working with what they can.

[JonathanMB]

The last Focus/Regency release was The Northman, which opened to $12.3M for a $34.2M total off a $70M budget. Bikeriders' reported budget is $40M, and being a late acquisition probably means the breakeven point for Focus is not that high. If it can get even close to that Northman opening I think that would be a genuine win (especially since it's opening in 700 less theaters).

[Eric is Quiet]

44 minutes ago, justnumbers said:

OK. That's cute. But no one cares still.

I care.

[crazymoviekid]

The Bikeriders:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 2 Tickets

Theater 2: 7 Tickets

 

Back to Black: $.38M

Challengers: $.79M

KotFM: $.75M

Asteroid City: $.40M

Elvis: $.77M 

 

Most comps are going to $.75M so I'll stick with that for now.

[discussingnotfilms]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I can't watch a TV show or log on to YouTube or a website without seeing multiple ads for the Bikeriders, so I really really don't want to hear the typical "this Jeff Nichols arthouse film was obviously never gonna make money" that people are already preparing to hit me with. It's a starry action movie with a blockbuster level ad spend.

this is the first real box office test for Butler post Elvis so i'm excited to see how it performs

[AniNate]

This wouldn't be the first time a small movie got spam marketed right before release, though I guess the $40 mil budget means any rationalizations won't be very persuasive

 

However it does though at least we should still have no problem maintaining pace with 2023 next week.

 

 

Edited June 18 by AniNate

[keysersoze123]

On 6/12/2024 at 5:51 PM, keysersoze123 said:

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1

Previews - 21441/515882 437292.61 2519 shows

Friday - 13516/960873 263538.18 4702 shows

 

At this point its just coasting. Not much of a pace. Let us see how things go closer to release. 

 

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1

Early shows - 4170/62431 75766.28 277 shows

Previews - 26489/520061 536237.33 2543 show s +5048 

Friday - 17610/964003 343448.02 4724 shows +4094

 

+6 days of data. Its doing fairly well. I hope it ramps up well in final week or so. Targeting 5-6m previews.  

 

Edit: Early shows BO already covered as part of previews. They are also on the same day. So its more of a fan show than early shows. 

Edited June 19 by keysersoze123

[Insomnia]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1

Early shows - 4170/62431 75766.28 277 shows

Previews - 26489/520061 536237.33 2543 show s +5048 

Friday - 17610/964003 343448.02 4724 shows +4094

 

+6 days of data. Its doing fairly well. I hope it ramps up well in final week or so. Targeting 5-6m previews.  

If it can clear 6 then I think 50 is possible for the weekend.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/7/2024 at 5:08 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

TWISTERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-46

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
548	1449	107948	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

105

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

28

 

COMPS

Day 2

(0.691x) of Ghostbusters $3.25M 

(0.980x) of Quiet place day one $???

(0.538x) of Dune 2 $5.00M

(0.912x) of Apes $4.56M
Comps AVG: $4.27M 

 

Going to be the last update for a while. Looks like lots of folks that wanted tickets bought on day one. Probably won't see an acceleration until final 7 days. 

FLORIDA 

 

TWISTERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-30

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
548	1603	107948	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-30

(0.486x) of Dune 2 $4.52M
Comps AVG: $4.52M 

 

Selling around 9 tickets per a day. Pace has been very anemic after pretty good start. Dune comp is the only one I have this far out

Edited June 19 by TheFlatLannister

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Bikeriders (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	79	132	132	7134	1.85

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		101	50	76.52
Other chains:		31	16	23.48

 

Comps (no adjustment):

0.25x Civil War: $730k

1.74x Ferrari: $750k

1.08x Iron Claw: $725k

 

Average: $735k

 

Comps (removing Alamo from comps):

0.3x Civil War: $865k

2.16x Ferrari: $935k

1.5x Iron Claw: $1 Million

 

Average: $935k

 

Back from my trip! This is one that the Alamo change makes a huge difference, so I am keen to see what the actuals end up closest to. I will track this one like this for the week. 

 

Updates for DM4 on Wednesday, and rest of upcoming major releases on Thursday

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Bikeriders (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	86	28	160	7469	2.14

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		113	12	70.63
Other chains:		47	16	29.38

 

Comps (no adjustment):

0.26x Civil War: $745k

1.63x Ferrari: $705k

0.98x Iron Claw: $655k

 

Average: $700k

 

Comps (removing Alamo from comps):

0.3x Civil War: $875k

1.8x Ferrari: $775k

1.34x Iron Claw: $895k

 

Average: $850k

 

Not really seeing a million previews from my numbers, but who knows. I welcome other comp ideas but this is mostly what I have for male, cinephile-oriented flicks

[Unfitclock]

@keysersoze123 I’m curious what does the bikeriders look like around you?

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

@keysersoze123 I’m curious what does the bikeriders look like around you?

I dont look at tiny movies. Its pointless. They will wildly over index when I look nationally. 

[Flip]

On 6/16/2024 at 12:11 PM, Flip said:

A Quiet Place (T-11)

 

12 showtimes/174 tix sold (+31)

.95x Inside Out 2 (T-11) [12.35m*]
 Bad boys comp will start tomorrow. 

* take this with a grain of salt, due to both genre differences and AQP over indexing since I’m tracking NYC where the movie takes place.

A Quiet Place (T-9)

 

12 showtimes/203 tix sold (+29)

1.02x Inside Out 2 (T-9) [13.26m*]
1.69x Bad Boys 4 (T-9) [9.43m]
5.97x Watchers (T-9) [5.97m]

* take this with a grain of salt, due to both genre differences and AQP over indexing since I’m tracking NYC where the movie takes place.

 

for now Watchers comp is probably the best to follow

[Flip]

On 6/16/2024 at 12:06 PM, Flip said:

Despicable Me 4 (T-17) full week of sales

 

22 showtimes/84 tix sold (+26) 

 

Twisters (T-32) also full week

 

14 showtimes/44 tix sold (+7)

Despicable Me 4 (T-15)

 

22 showtimes/94 tix sold (+10) 

.74x Inside Out 2 Thursday (T-15) [9.62m]

 

Twisters (T-30) 

 

14 showtimes/46 tix sold (+2)

 

still hasn’t reached AQP’s first day of sales yet

[Rorschach]

22 hours ago, Rorschach said:

The Bikeriders (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

4 2D showings: 14/268 (5.2% sold)

 

Friday:

5 2D showings: 16/335 (4.8% sold)

Thurs + Fri: 30/603 (5% sold)

 

No comps for this one, though looking at the numbers, they're honestly higher than I would've expected at the beginning of the week for this kind of film. Hope to see some decent growth over the coming days. 

The Bikeriders (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

4 2D showings: 16/268 (6% sold)

 

Friday:

5 2D showings: 35/335 (10.4% sold)

Thurs + Fri: 51/603 (8.5% sold) [+21]

 

Not much change for Thursday, but Friday got a nice doubled boost. Tomorrow, I'll check my old Wednesday-only list to find if there are any films worth comping.

[Pinacolada]

11 hours ago, JonathanMB said:

The last Focus/Regency release was The Northman, which opened to $12.3M for a $34.2M total off a $70M budget. Bikeriders' reported budget is $40M, and being a late acquisition probably means the breakeven point for Focus is not that high. If it can get even close to that Northman opening I think that would be a genuine win (especially since it's opening in 700 less theaters).

 

Jeff Nichols himself said the budget was $30m in this Q&A. That $40m number is coming from a Scott Feinberg Telluride article from last year, and he has a history of overstating budgets. I remember he did the same with Hostiles at Telluride, said the budget was $55m, but the final reported budget was like $39m.

 

I'm hoping that's the case here and we get a revised budget report from Deadline in their weekend preview or something. With a $30m budget, I think this could put up a respectable WW gross, if it's being properly supported in international distribution. Tom Hardy should at least help get a solid UK performance out of this

 

 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/7/2024 at 3:24 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 1770/65791 38592.20 290 shows

Previews(7/18) - 5606/527628 109348.32 2573 shows

 

Meh start for a big budget CGI blockbuster. Then again this is not something that should start its presales so early. But I dont like the release date at all for obvious reasons. This should have opened last month.  

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 3714/66111 80510.26 291 shows

Previews(7/18) - 8960/547819 174987.72 2682 shows

 

11 days of update. Not much of a pace yet. 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/16/2024 at 8:36 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Sunday - 197139/1393149 2922044. 8237 shows

 

Presales are down a lot but walkups should make up somewhat. Especially with Fathers day driving sales. 

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Juneteenth - 157131/1248739 2375927.38 7128 shows

 

Can it hit high 20s tomorrow? 

[Migs20242]

38 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Juneteenth - 157131/1248739 2375927.38 7128 shows

 

Can it hit high 20s tomorrow? 

highly doubt it will cross 30 million

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1 Juneteenth - 157131/1248739 2375927.38 7128 shows

 

Can it hit high 20s tomorrow? 

That seems like a really great hold at around 80% of Sunday.