The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ringedmortality]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

Still, looking good here, but not breaking out.  Yet.

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/2/2024 at 5:09 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine [+4 days of sales]

T-23 Thursday: 28240/207530

T-24 Friday: 18608/273353

T-25 Saturday: 13842/286142

T-26 Sunday: 4648/284048

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine [+3 days of sales]

T-20 Thursday: 29987/207530

T-21 Friday: 20095/273353

T-22 Saturday: 15133/286142

T-23 Sunday: 5239/284048

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/2/2024 at 5:11 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Despicable Me 4 [+4 days of sales]

T-4 Saturday: 4673/264834

MTC4 Despicable Me 4 [+3 days of sales]

T-1 Saturday: 17476/413471

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews (T-21) - 205314/1282987 3771730.28 7884 shows +5124

Friday - 99360/1490384 1875821.75 8300 shows // +7163 4 days of update

 

Definitely pace is up. 3 weeks to go. But as I said for me 2 weeks to go. Current pace is around 2600 ish per day for previews over past 2 days. Let us look at the pace early next week and see how it increases. Friday is still lower. But it should at least cross half of previews soon.  

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews(T-20) - 207704/1283692 3812578.48 7889 shows +2390

MTC2 Previews - 93432/521157 1365605.71 3856 shows

 

Obviously it did not sell much yesterday evening and so the pace would be still down. I am not expecting a ramp up over the weekend. Next surge should start from Monday onwards. 

[emoviefan]

Still feels like the floor for Twisters should be 50m and how much higher it goes than that depends on the reviews and final week ticket sale bump and walkups.

[Relevation]

55 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Still feels like the floor for Twisters should be 50m and how much higher it goes than that depends on the reviews and final week ticket sale bump and walkups.

But the floor is not 50

Like it would need to be doing $7M+ previews to hit $50M+ and no market is pointing to that right now 

 

Personally I think it lands around $5-6M THU + EA which is what the decently walkup heavy action movie comps are pointing to rn (which is also not the floor because Twisters could have weaker walkups due to possible white skew), and that would probably mean like a $35-42M OW. Floor is probably closer to like $25-28M if it falls sub-4 for previews, ceiling optimistic scenario I feel is $8M previews and a $56-64M OW.

[emoviefan]

47 minutes ago, Relevation said:

But the floor is not 50

Like it would need to be doing $7M+ previews to hit $50M+ and no market is pointing to that right now 

 

Personally I think it lands around $5-6M THU + EA which is what the decently walkup heavy action movie comps are pointing to rn (which is also not the floor because Twisters could have weaker walkups due to possible white skew), and that would probably mean like a $35-42M OW. Floor is probably closer to like $25-28M if it falls sub-4 for previews, ceiling optimistic scenario I feel is $8M previews and a $56-64M OW.

Yeah I hear you. I am just trying to split the difference and be as positive as possible and it will be a late bloomer. The 70+ talk just does not look  realistic or rational based on anything right now.

Edited July 6 by emoviefan

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0)

07/05/24

Maxxxine - 114 tickets sold

 

COMPS:

Maxxxine

0.70x of Madame Web ($4.26M)

0.90x of Civil War ($2.62M)

2.19x of Challengers ($3.51M)

3.08x of In A Violent Nature ($1.26M)

5.18x of Drive-Away Dolls ($2.33M)

5.43x of Abigail ($5.43M)

8.77x of Immaculate ($4.82M)

AVERAGE: $3.46M

 

Day-old data so I'm not sure how useful this is anymore, but in any sense I figure Maxxxine did pretty well here. Triple digit sales count is the first for a horror film in my market, and it landed at around $3.5M FRI against the laundry list of comps I have here. Gonna wager something like $3.5-4M FRI and a $9-10.5M OW on this.

[ChipDerby]

2 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah I hear you. I am just trying to split the difference and be as positive as possible and it will be a late bloomer. The 70+ talk just does not look  realistic or rational based on anything right now.

 

Keep in mind the guy you're talking to also thinks Minecraft could open to $200 mil

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Keep in mind the guy you're talking to also thinks Minecraft could open to $200 mil

Okay. I mean he is not wrong that the presales have not been exactly on fire in  most markets. At some point areas outside of the Midwest have to start picking up. I am still confident it can happen and 50-60 is something to shoot for but 70+ eh there would have to be a sleeping giant of a audience out there.

[Insomnia]

59 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Keep in mind the guy you're talking to also thinks Minecraft could open to $200 mil

Yeah that's Detective Pikachu all over again. I know Minecraft is big but not a lot of people are going to care about the movie.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27416	33607	6191	18.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

58

 

T-21 Comp

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	67.78		187	9134		0/329	31774/40908	22.33%		21117	29.32%		24.40m
L&T	117.01		231	5291		0/228	26309/31600	16.74%		16962	36.50%		33.93m
BP2	101.53		150	6098		1/294	30924/37022	16.47%		16800	36.85%		28.43m
AM3	152.19		104	4068		0/235	28488/32556	12.50%		10475	59.10%		26.63m
GOTG3	199.26		93	3107		0/206	26559/29666	10.47%		10750	57.59%		34.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1405/12916  [10.88% sold]
Matinee:    392/4466  [8.78% | 6.33% of all tickets sold]
3D:            682/6790  [10.04% | 11.02% of all tickets sold]
PLF:    3114/11526  [27.02% | 50.30% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold 56 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold 55 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
 

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.6466x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-21 [40.11m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]

 

====

 

People apparently had better things to do tonight than by tickets for a movie three weeks in advance.  Who would have guessed?

 

(most of us, aksually)

 

Aside from that, re-worded the "equivalent seats sold" section (which, honestly, never really liked) after the confusion noted earlier today.  Might keep tweaking it a bit, but it's late at night so I don't feel like poking at it right now.

 

Also, under ******EXTREME PROTEST****** added an EXCEEDINGLY unofficial Captain Marvel comp.  For the ATP adjustment, I'm currently using 1.17686x which is 2024 ATP ($10.78)/ 2019 ATP ($9.16) over at the-numbers. 

 

One thing to note is the 2024 ATP ($10.78) is exactly the same as 2023 ($10.78), which very likely means it hasn't been updated for this year.    And then there's the R-rating and everything else mentioned in my prior posts.  Then again, if I bump up the ATP to something like $10.90, it only raises the comp to 40.56m, so perhaps not that big of a deal.

 

Still, "EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL" is there for a reason.   Just have to see how unreasonable of a comp it ends up being (FWIW, CM over-performed in Sacramento for whatever reason).

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27299	33607	6308	18.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

117

 

T-20 Comp

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.08		132	9266		0/329	31642/40908	22.65%		21117	29.87%		24.51m
L&T	114.17		234	5525		0/228	26075/31600	17.48%		16962	37.19%		33.11m
BP2	101.55		114	6212		1/294	30810/37022	16.78%		16800	37.55%		28.43m
AM3	152.70		63	4131		0/235	28425/32556	12.69%		10475	60.22%		26.72m
GOTG3	198.18		76	3183		0/206	26483/29666	10.73%		10750	58.68%		34.68m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1425/12916  [11.03% sold]
Matinee:    394/4466  [8.82% | 6.25% of all tickets sold]
3D:             699/6790  [10.29% | 11.08% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3157/11526  [27.39% | 50.05% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     93 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     99 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
 

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.64391x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-20 [40.05m]   

 

====

 

Very nice rebound today. 👍

[vafrow]

On 7/5/2024 at 8:20 AM, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, T-14 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 9

New Sales since T-20: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.5

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 58

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/5

Early Evening: 6/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 7/8

IMAX: 1/6

4DX: 1/3

 

Previews Comps

0.846x Fall Guy for $2.7M

0.256x KOTPOTA for $1.3M

0.393x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $2.3M

0.145x HG: BoSS for $0.8M

0.379x Furiosa for $1.3M

 

Comps with EA rolled into previews 

1.605x KOTPOTA for $8.0M

2.464x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $12.3M

0.908x HG: BoSS for $4.5M

2.379x Furiosa for $11.9M

 

EA Comp

1.415x Fall Guy for $1.1M

 

No movement on preview sales, but EA continues to do well. Further, I actually realized there were two more EA shows on the Wednesday I didn't capture before (IMAX Q&A sessions). That means all five of my theatres have EA shows, and likely pulling demand away from official Thursday previews.

 

I set up two series of comps, one with Thursday to Thursday. The other that rolls the Wednesday EA into Twisters' total. I had to do the same with Fall Guy, which gives me one ideal comparison. But Twisters is doing better on EA, worse on previews.

 

The answer is probably in between somewhere of all these data points, but I really have no idea. 

I did a check on Friday sales and it's 27 across the sample. A 3:1 ratio from Thursday would be a good sign usually, but not when the theory is that those Wednesday sales would otherwise be Thursday sales.

 

Twisters, T-13 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 19

New Sales : 10

Growth: 111%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.1

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 62

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/5

Early Evening: 16/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 13/8

IMAX: 5/6

4DX: 1/3

 

Previews Comps

1.462x Fall Guy for $4.6M

0.432x KOTPOTA for $2.2M

0.594x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $3.5M

0.198x HG: BoSS for $1.1M

0.559x Furiosa for $2.0M

 

Comps with EA rolled into previews 

1.842x KOTPOTA for $9.2M

2.531x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $12.7M

0.844x HG: BoSS for $4.2M

2.382x Furiosa for $11.9M

 

EA Comp

1.476x Fall Guy for $1.2M

 

It finally had some sales on previews. Hopefully it's the start of some steady sales volume.

 

 

[vafrow]

On 6/29/2024 at 9:52 AM, vafrow said:

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-27, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2002

New Sales since T-34: 60

Growth: 3%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 50.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 223/13

Early Evening: 1090/14

Late Evening: 749/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1693/21)

Regular: 11/1

Dolby: 422/5

IMAX: 838/4

VIP: 402/8

4DX: 20/3

 

3D (369/20)

Regular: 62/2

Dolby: 150/4

IMAX: 46/2

VIP: 111/6

 

Comps 

3.519x Dune 2 (w/ EA) for $42.2M

0.819x Eras Tour (unadjusted for ATP) for $30.9M

 

A few notes:

-growth is probably understated as I'm pretty sure I had a counting error of about 40 on aj IMAX screening last time.

 

-I've added back comps. I still lack great comps, but it's something. Only MCU comp I have is The Marvels and only tracked final two weeks. I also had to stop Eras tour in the final couple of weeks,so that will drop off.

 

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-20, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2213

New Sales since T-27: 151

Growth: 7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 54.0

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 289/13

Early Evening: 1145/14

Late Evening: 779/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1795/21)

Regular: 20/1

Dolby: 463/5

IMAX: 864/4

VIP: 420/8

4DX: 28/3

 

3D (418/20)

Regular: 70/2

Dolby: 164/4

IMAX: 45/2

VIP: 139/6

 

Comps 

3.078x Dune 2 (w/ EA) for $36.9M

0.859x Eras Tour (unadjusted for ATP) for $32.3M

 

Still nothing too exciting. I'll be sticking with weekly updates on this until final week, but even then, I'm not sure if there's much value in dailies given the effort to do manual counts on this track. Especially with a lack of comps.

 

[Inceptionzq]

12 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Despicable Me 4 [+3 days of sales]

T-1 Saturday: 17476/413471

MTC4 Despicable Me 4

T-0 Saturday: 26321/413565

1.50x DM4 Friday

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Deadpool Wolverine	T-20	Jax	5	109	-	1,957	16,401	11.93%
		Phx	6	144	-	1,845	21,547	8.56%
		Ral	8	129	-	1,766	15,280	11.56%
	Total		19	382	-	5,568	53,228	10.46%
Fly Me to the Moon	T-6	Jax	5	17	-	9	1,232	0.73%
		Phx	7	22	-	10	1,776	0.56%
		Ral	8	23	-	18	2,281	0.79%
	Total		20	62	-	37	5,289	0.70%
Fly Me to the Moon (EA)	T-0	Jax	4	4	-	119	403	29.53%
		Phx	5	5	-	75	421	17.81%
		Ral	4	4	-	108	356	30.34%
	Total		13	13	-	302	1,180	25.59%
	T-1	Jax	4	4	-	53	372	14.25%
		Phx	5	5	-	33	421	7.84%
		Ral	4	4	-	40	356	11.24%
	Total		13	13	-	126	1,149	10.97%
Longlegs	T-6	Jax	4	7	10	73	473	15.43%
		Phx	6	11	30	89	687	12.95%
		Ral	4	9	0	53	631	8.40%
	Total		14	27	40	215	1,791	12.00%
Twisters	T-13	Jax	5	57	-	86	9,841	0.87%
		Phx	6	31	-	98	6,447	1.52%
		Ral	8	44	-	108	6,280	1.72%
	Total		19	132	-	292	22,568	1.29%
Twisters (EA)	T-12	Jax	3	4	-	39	909	4.29%
		Phx	1	2	-	17	618	2.75%
		Ral	2	2	-	27	412	6.55%
	Total		6	8	-	83	1,939	4.28%

 

Fly Me to the Moon (EA Total) T-1 adjusted comps

 - Lost City (EA Total) - 2x (1.54m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA Total) - .237x (914k)

 - Black Phone (EA Total) - 3.292x (1.35m)

 

Fly Me to the Moon (previews) T-6 adjusted comps

 - Arthur the King - 1.321x (1.26m)

 - No Hard Feelings - .787x (1.7m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - .771x (870k)

 - Joy Ride - .841x (878k)

 - Massive Talent - .86x (715k)

 - Lost City - .182x (466k)

 

Longlegs T-6 adjusted comps

 - Smile (Total) - 1x (1.72m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .91x (2.79m)

 - Strangers - 2.83x (2.85m)

 - Watchers - 5x (4.2m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.2m

 

Twisters (Total) T-13 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.534x (7.98m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.33x (4.29m)

 - Glass Onion - 1.113x (2.69m)

 - No Time to Die - .728x (4.77m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.07x (4.73m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 4.13m

 

Deadpool Wolverine T-20 adjusted comps

 - Dr Strange 2 - .642x (23.66m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.33x (39.47m)

 - Batman (Total) - 1.712x (38.61m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.761x (30.82m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fly Me to the Moon	T-5	Jax	5	17	2	11	1,232	0.89%
		Phx	7	22	0	10	1,776	0.56%
		Ral	8	23	3	21	2,281	0.92%
	Total		20	62	5	42	5,289	0.79%
Fly Me to the Moon (EA)	T-0	Jax	4	8	176	229	775	29.55%
		Phx	5	10	137	170	842	20.19%
		Ral	4	8	188	228	712	32.02%
	Total		13	26	501	627	2,329	26.92%
Longlegs	T-5	Jax	4	7	8	81	473	17.12%
		Phx	6	11	14	103	687	14.99%
		Ral	4	9	21	74	631	11.73%
	Total		14	27	43	258	1,791	14.41%
Twisters	T-12	Jax	5	57	5	91	9,841	0.92%
		Phx	6	31	4	102	6,447	1.58%
		Ral	8	44	2	110	6,280	1.75%
	Total		19	132	11	303	22,568	1.34%
Twisters (EA)	T-11	Jax	5	10	103	142	2,186	6.50%
		Phx	1	2	0	17	618	2.75%
		Ral	2	2	7	34	412	8.25%
	Total		8	14	110	193	3,216	6.00%

 

Fly Me to the Moon (EA Total) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Lost City (EA Total) - 2.44x (1.87m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA Total) - .335x (1.29m)

 - Black Phone (EA Total) - 4.1x (1.68m)

 - Ungentlemanly (EA) - 1.351x (811k)

 

Should easily get to 1m and I could see upwards of 1.5m with shows being on the weekend. 

 

Fly Me to the Moon (previews) T-5 adjusted comps

 - Arthur the King - 1.235x (1.18m)

 - No Hard Feelings - .764x (1.64m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - .764x (862k)

 - Joy Ride - .933x (974k)

 - Massive Talent - missed

 - Lost City - .197x (505k)

 - Ungentlemanly - .875x (744k)

 

Longlegs T-5 adjusted comps

 - Smile (Total) - missed

 - Black Phone (Total) - .98x (3.02m)

 - Strangers - 2.97x (2.99m)

 - Watchers - 4.96x (4.17m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.856x (2.26m)

 - Haunting of Venice (Total) - 2.064x (2.03m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.32m

 

Twisters (Total) T-12 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.97x (9.36m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .994x (8.96m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Total) - 1.234x (8.14m)

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.363x (6m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .607x (5.34m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.93m

 

Found a few more PLF early shows listed on the normal listing for Wednesday that bumped EA up a good amount.  I don't love these comps, but I don't know what would be much better.  Godzilla x Kong is the closest in terms of total tickets sold across all movies I've tracked.  Looking at overall movies in this range I'd say this is headed for somewhere between 5.5m and 6.5m, but there's still a couple weeks left to move that up or down.  

[filmlover]

Didn't know Fly Me to the Moon was having two days worth of preview showings, it's selling well tonight too. Hope it does well!

[Relevation]

14 hours ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Keep in mind the guy you're talking to also thinks Minecraft could open to $200 mil

I think it could get to $180M+ yeah

 

What does that have to do with Twisters tho

[Cmasterclay]

Those numbers would be shockingly good for both Fly Me To The Moon and Longlegs.

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/4/2024 at 6:26 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Fly Me to the Moon (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	56	18	18	5086	0.35
Saturday July 6 EA: 16 theaters	16	14	14	1306	1.07
Friday July 5 EA: 17 theaters	16	74	74	1299	5.7
TOTALS:	88	106	106	7691	1.38

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		16	16	88.89
Other chains:		2	2	11.11

 

Thursday Comps:

0.23x Challengers: $360k

0.62x Anyone But You: $745k (17 theaters)

0.35x Big Fat Greek Wedding: $190k (17 theaters)

0.94x No Hard Feelings: $2.02 Million (12 theaters)

 

Doesn't make much sense to look into this much rn, will have to wait for after EA to see how it actually does.

 

EA Comps (Friday only):

0.25x Maxxxine: ?? (assuming $600k --> $145k)

0.13x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $200k

0.2x Fall Guy: $160k

0.27x Challengers: $150k

0.2x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $120k

 

Pretty weak stuff, I will give T-1 Hour updates for this as well as Saturday EA

 

Minnesota Early Access ONLY:

 

Fly Me to the Moon (T-1 Hour):

Day: T-1 Hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Saturday July 6 EA: 16 theaters	16	310	324	1306	24.81

 

Comps:

0.75x Maxxxine: ?? (assuming $600k --> $450k)

0.65x Fall Guy: $520k

0.94x Challengers: $515k

 

Sadly was busy and missed the EA for this yesterday at T-1 Hour still got today though. This is AMAZING growth, and I would probably guess around $500k for today. If yesterday acted similarly, around 1 million for both days of EA, like @katnisscinnaplex suggested, makes a lot of sense!