The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ringedmortality]

2 hours ago, Ryan C said:

I know the original film is very popular and has gained a cult following ever since its 1988 release, but I just have trouble believing it's this popular to warrant numbers on par with Inside Out 2 or Barbie. 

 

If the original Beetlejuice were as successful as something like Jurassic Park or even the original Ghostbusters, then I probably wouldn't be as shocked if this movie (at a time when legacy sequels are still mostly box office gold) would open to these numbers. 

Beetlejuice has a large following and there’s likely a lot of overlap between it and the Inside Out 2 crowd (thank god the teaser was in front of it). 
 

It’s a big Hot Topic movie. It’d be like if Burton made a sequel to Nightmare Before Christmas.

[keysersoze123]

On 8/20/2024 at 9:46 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early Shows(9/4) - 18356/89929 392051.60 375 shows

Previews(T-16) - 39927/704635 739688.84 3576 shows

Friday - 32156/1068024 581488.11 5343 shows

 

Its really promising where it is this far out. I am thinking its going for 2.5m early shows and 12m thursday only at this point. If the final week push is strong this could be a 100m opener.  

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early Shows(9/4) - 20592/92255 437916.26 385 shows +2236

Previews(T-14) -  43087/705912 795237.70 3582 shows +3167

Friday - 36097/1068691 651990.24 5347 shows +3941

 

+2 days of pace. 

[ThomasNicole]

I don´t think it will explode to 150M type of OW, even if the presales for this possibility are here.

 

It´ll probably slow down a bit, but 100M is looking good. Good news is that WB is apparently confident, it´ll premiere next WED on venice, it just needs decent reviews [70´s on RT should be enough].

[TheFlatLannister]

3 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

This doesn't include any EA screenings? 

I never track EA ( I probably should start). I think other trackers were saying $2M+ for EA

[Ryan C]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I don´t think it will explode to 150M type of OW, even if the presales for this possibility are here.

 

It´ll probably slow down a bit, but 100M is looking good. Good news is that WB is apparently confident, it´ll premiere next WED on venice, it just needs decent reviews [70´s on RT should be enough].

 

Same. 

 

Though I do think audience reception is far more important than what the critics think for this movie. That aspect still is important and it would be nice to see good reviews for a movie that I feel will be very mixed with critics, but if audiences enjoy it, then the sky is the limit on how high and how leggy this movie can be. 

 

Good to know that because of both this and Joker 2 premiering at Venice, they can't pull what they did with Trap and just not screen the films for critics. 

 

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, Relevation said:

Is it? Flip, TheFlatLannister, and Jat’s numbers all suggest like $14M+ THU alone and if it puts down $2.5M EA, then that’s like $16.5M combined previews! In September! Shang-Chi had an 8.6x IM so if this does the same, then that’s $142M for the weekend. And I don’t see any reason why this would be frontheavy since it’s a nostalgia based family horror comedy, and pace has been phenomenal the last few weeks. Very strongly getting IO2/Barbie vibes here, this is a freight train that is only gonna keep getting higher and higher until it like doubles industry projections when it finally hits. 

Shang-Chi opened over Labor Day weekend though, so it’s Sunday would’ve been inflated. Plus it was Covid times. 

[Relevation]

Also for the record I did track the August 23 releases for THU, but the numbers are so dogshit that I don’t even think it’s worth a full post lol

 

Blink Twice - 27 tickets sold (comps to $830K against Challengers)

The Crow - 18 tickets sold (comps to $731K against Borderlands)

The Forge - 13 tickets sold (comps to $180K against Cabrini)

 

Yawn. Call me back when a movie is doing $1M+ previews.

[Eric the Marxist]

Quorum Updates

The Front Room T-15: 27.33% Awareness, 45.01% Interest

Mufasa: The Lion King T-120: 47.83% Awareness, 57.12% Interest

Paddington in Peru T-148: 28.94% Awareness, 36.5% Interest

 

Blink Twice T-1: 38.32% Awareness, 47.35% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 34% chance of 10M

 

The Crow T-1: 43.63% Awareness, 49.31% Interest

Final Awareness: 78% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 60% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 34% chance of 10M

 

The Forge T-1: 21.58% Awareness, 41.36% Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 34% chance of 10M

 

1992 T-8: 25.2% Awareness, 46.84% Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 34% chance of 10M

 

Afraid T-8: 25.78% Awareness, 48.26% Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M

 

Piece by Piece T-50: 16.42% Awareness, 34.28% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 30% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 33% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

Terrifier 3 T-50: 24.44% Awareness, 40.59% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 61% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 61% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 69% chance of 10M

[Eric the Marxist]

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-moana-2-soars-mufasa-the-lion-king-returns-and-snow-whote-debuts/

 

[el sid]

From yesterday: Blink Twice had 504 sold tickets for Thursday. Best presales in the AMCs in California but also not that bad in the other regions. 

Up very decent 58% since Wednesday. 

 

Comps (always counted on Thursday for Thursday) Thanksgiving (1M from previews) had 365 sold tickets = 1.4M. 

The Invitation (775k) had 218 = 1.8M. 

Smile (2M) had 467 = 2.15M. 

Devil (660k) had 164 = 2M. 

Abigail (1M) had 351 = 1.45M. 

Tarot (715k) had 184 = 1.95M. 

And Trap (2.2M) had 1.170 sold tickets = 0.95M. 

 

Average: 1.65M.

 

In recent years I had more trust in my horror movie presales. But this year, too many films (MaXXXine, The Strangers, Trap...) disappointed walkup-wise.

All I can say is that Blink Twice had a way better last jump than e.g. MaXXXine and is not only popular in the AMCs in California.

 

By the way the movie actually gets some advertisement here in Germany, e.g. spots on TV.

 

 

[VanillaSkies]

Taylor Swift just posted a message to praise and recommend Blink Twice. 
 

Will this get a Swiftie bump?
12 million+ weekend coming now? 😆 

[Krissykins]

16 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Taylor Swift just posted a message to praise and recommend Blink Twice. 
 

Will this get a Swiftie bump?
12 million+ weekend coming now? 😆 

They don’t usually show up at the box office unless it’s her concert, but it certainly can’t hurt! Especially when she included a link to buy tickets lol

[filmlover]

Is Swift friends with Zoe Kravitz? I can see that being where the random endorsement is coming from. 

 

Edit: Kravitz was a co-writer on "Lavender Haze" so yeah, that's it lol.

Edited August 23 by filmlover

[vale9001]

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

They don’t usually show up at the box office unless it’s her concert, but it certainly can’t hurt! Especially when she included a link to buy tickets lol

 

??? Are you saying hundreds and hundreds of million people can follow her don't go to watch movies? . What this even mean? 😅

[vale9001]

I mean if Drake tweets about It end with us he's maybe not exactly the core target to push that specifically movie but still making a tweet to 300m people about a movie most people doesn't even know exists definitely helps to make them at least aware It exists. 

[el sid]

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, counted on Tuesday (3 days ago) for Friday, September 6, had 875 sold tickets (with shows in 7 theaters). 24 days left.

 

Comps: It 2 (10.5M from previews/26.5M true Friday/91.1M OW) had, counted on Monday of the release week for Friday, 2.404 sold tickets = 36.4% for BB with 20 days left to come closer or maybe overtake. 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (3.8M from previews/15.6M true Friday/58M OW) finally (= counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday) had 1.185 sold tickets = already 74% for BB with 23 days left to overtake. 

And Wonka (3.5M from previews/10.9M true Friday/39M OW) had with also 24 days left (counted for Thursday but normally these numbers are pretty similar) 278 sold tickets = x3.15 ~ 34.3M true Friday. 

 

I have to admit that my comps are far from perfect at the moment but you can see that it looks promising for BB also in my theaters. 

I'm absolutely sure that its presales will double till Monday of the release week and hope for more than 2k sold tickets so the It 2 number is my goal for now. 

 

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, Eric Ripley said:

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-moana-2-soars-mufasa-the-lion-king-returns-and-snow-whote-debuts/

 

Holy Shit on Moana 2. Wicked is toast. Not really but I do not think there is a real competition with those 2 movies. Gladiator 2 assuming we get good and not bad Ridley will be number 2 on Thanksgiving weekend.

[Krissykins]

33 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

??? Are you saying hundreds and hundreds of million people can follow her don't go to watch movies? . What this even mean? 😅

Her movies. ie Amsterdam, Cats etc. 

 

It was only a joke  

[Eric the Marxist]

26 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Holy Shit on Moana 2. Wicked is toast. Not really but I do not think there is a real competition with those 2 movies. Gladiator 2 assuming we get good and not bad Ridley will be number 2 on Thanksgiving weekend.

Important to note this was polled the same week as D23 and a new trailer dropped, so it does have that kind of inflation. That's also why Mufasa and Snow White are on here, though they could stick around over the next few weeks, especially the former.

 

And Wicked is no slouch in terms of unaided awareness either, though granted that can also be attributed to all the Olympics promotion.

[justnumbers]

4 hours ago, Eric Ripley said:

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-moana-2-soars-mufasa-the-lion-king-returns-and-snow-whote-debuts/

 

Even with D23, that just insane for Moana 2

Edited August 23 by justnumbers