The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Krissykins]

58 minutes ago, filmlover said:

On another note, the ads for Here are now taking the always desperate marketing approach of having the stars pitch the movie to the audience. So yeah, I guess it is going to flop. Oh well.

Add that to what looks like a very tedious gimmick and I can’t say I’m surprised. 

[crazymoviekid]

Conclave: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 4 Tickets
Theater 2: 10 Tickets

 

Megalopolis: $.33M
Bikeriders: $1.56M
Challengers: $1.23M
Drive Away Dolls: $.79M
KotFM: $1.17M

 

No idea just yet. I'll be ballsy and say $1M.

[keysersoze123]

Sub 50m OW seems most probable scenario at this point. Trend is horrendous. 

[Rageofthegods]

Bit late to the conversation but I don't think we have to worry about Wicked not appealing to older woman. You don't become one of the highest grossing Broadway shows ever by not appealing to that quadrant.

[vale9001]

1 minute ago, Rageofthegods said:

Bit late to the conversation but I don't think we have to worry about Wicked not appealing to older woman. You don't become one of the highest grossing Broadway shows ever by not appealing to that quadrant.

 

As you said musical theater audience is different from the cinema audience. What can work there even for different audiences can be not appealing for people going to movies.

 

But you can be right, we'll see. 

[efialtes76]

28 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sub 50m OW seems most probable scenario at this point. Trend is horrendous. 

Venom 3?

[leoh]

3 hours ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

I get what you mean  and after the first day of presale of Wicked i said we need to wait if there is an interest outside the core target so I agree with you. 

Btw i Remember user like @charlie Jatinder were saying about The colour purple the big Sales were only focused on Christmas day from the day one of pre- Sales, while here according to the trackers seems for Wicked sales are good from EA to real previews + the weekend all around so i think definitely It's not something at that level of frontloaded

 

I mean the colour purple really played well only for the target of mature black women, Wicked can not be 4 quadrants movie (like you i'm not 100% sure is gonna play like full family movie) but definitely has more targets to reach even if most female centered...for example I'm not sure about the "white women factor", i think it has appeal for any kinda of woman. More than races the problem here can abe about women ages. One of the reasons Barbie exploded like that was adult- mature women were interested too. I don't see Wicked with that much appeal for women over like 40 (45?).

While for example Gladiator can be interesting imo for males from 18 to 70.

 

 

Anyways the numbers i said was just to clarify the difference i'm expecting right now for the two movies, not the actual numbers i believe they can do since i'm not tracking them.

 

Of course can be also 60M for gladiator and 90M for Wicked. Just i think Scott movie will make around 2/3 of the musical. 

 

 

everything points out to an over 100M ow for Wicked.

 

Gladiator projections seem more mixed. Some put it like at a possible 80M+ ow while others don’t see Gladiator making more than 50m. 

 

Edited 12 hours ago by leoh

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Venom 3?

Yes.

 

Wicked is definitely not Color Purple. That barely had any sales after OD. This is doing well on multiple days and across the board strong. That said we have to  keep an eye on how it finishes. I am hearing that the movie is very good and so I am expecting good finish. That should take it to triple digits OW. How much higher beyond that depends on the finish. 

 

Gladiator has ok sales but nothing that screams a mega breakout. I am skeptical about 80m OW. I am thinking 50m OW even with strong finish. I did not see a major spike even with reactions. 

[Cmasterclay]

Jesus, man. Everything fucking bombing. Gladiator, Venom, everything except Wicked. I expected it for Venom at this point but man that Gladiator projection is discouraging.

Edited 11 hours ago by Cmasterclay

[Chubbycc]

 

Wicked $120m 

Gladiator $80m 

Edited 11 hours ago by Chubbycc

[Chubbycc]

I think Wicked first premiere is on Nov 3rd. They’re doing multiple premieres throughout the month. i expect the press tour and promo will really kick off on Nov. 

 

I think it’s good for Paramount to push Gladiator right now.  This movie needs all the hype it can get. 

 

 

[joselowe]

4 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Gladiator has had social media reactions that have been positive and putting it into awards discussions.

 

I was impressed with Wicked being able to maintain momentum beyond the first few days. But, after that first week, and before that final two week stretch, there's not much Universal can do to maintain the hype too much. They've been showing trailers since the Superbowl.

 

This will still be big, but people should temper expectations during the middle stage.

Nothing more Universal can do? lol the devil works hard but Universal works harder!

 

They just released the Lexus and Target brand partnerships and more to come… in addition Universal is basically going to let them take over NBC, they have an entire television special dedicated to the film that will air on NBC the week of the film. They previously aired two specials for the anniversary of the Broadway musical that won its night in the weekly ratings. Don’t sleep on the Wicked fanbase and young girls and women!

[Mulder]

I know Gladiator 2's budget is huge but if it opens to 50 million or more in this kind of climate I'll still be impressed. 

[Cmasterclay]

Smile and Wild Robot the only films recently to land somewhere between huge breakout hit and mega disappointment tbh, the boom or bust cycle is so real. People either really get into the zeitgeist of a movie these days or it just dies on the vine.

[AniNate]

I would say The Substance also more or less performing the same as it would've in the "halcyon" pre-covid days

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

I would say The Substance also more or less performing the same as it would've in the "halcyon" pre-covid days

Agree, maybe even a bit better tbh, but on the relative sliding scale I consider it a win, same with We Live In Time.

[charlie Jatinder]

Moana 2 28/10 6 am pst 

[Gopher]

I read the boards a lot more than I post in them these days, but in case it hasn't been mentioned I'll just throw out that this was a disastrous weekend for Sony to release Venom. Five Nights at Freddy's did very well a year ago but was rabidly presale and fan-driven. We already had the data to show that Venom plays to "normal" audiences more than pretty much any CBM at this rate, and this is a weekend where casual audiences who may have liked the first two Venom movies are going to Halloween parties. It's not the only reason that Venom 3 would open so far below 2, but I think Halloweekend could certainly make the difference between what might've been a 60m or so opening and what might now be looking like 45m. The original November 8th date would've been far preferable, when people will want to be getting away from election news (regardless of the outcome).

 

The 80s/90s reached a rhythm of movies doing exceptionally well during the summer and holidays and fall/winter otherwise being very quiet. If we count spring break/Easter as its own holiday corridor of sorts I think post-covid has taken us back there. Stuff can still work in fall/winter but it takes a lot more effort than it used to. 

[Chubbycc]

If Gladiator can get $70m I will be happy. Anything $50m or less is honestly disappointing. This movie should be seen on the biggest IMAX screen 

[CJohn]

24 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Smile and Wild Robot the only films recently to land somewhere between huge breakout hit and mega disappointment tbh, the boom or bust cycle is so real. People either really get into the zeitgeist of a movie these days or it just dies on the vine.

Smile is gonna end with little more than half of the total of the first movie. That is a pretty big disappointment.