The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

Well even Kung Fu Panda had weak presales until closer to release. If TIFF reception is good though that ought to help pique adult consumer interest earlier

[YM!]

26 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

After the poor reception of Kung Fu Panda 4, I wonder if there might be fewer pre-sales and more walkups  

The GA or at the very least kids and families quite liked KFP4. Besides, it shouldn’t really affect Wild Robot’s presales. Presales will be weaker because it’s relatively original. 

[Ryan C]

Speak No Evil

 

T-7

 

Thursday: 250 Seats Sold (From 13 Theaters)

 

Taken as of 9:45AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: It's really difficult to gauge how well this will do based on pre-sales, but I'm expecting an opening that can't go any lower than $10M. Unlike past Blumhouse releases (Imaginary and AfrAId) reviews should actually be good (and James McAvoy's presence is always welcome), but it's gonna be hard to appeal to the prime moviegoing demographic for horror films (18-34 years old). Especially with it being a remake of a Danish horror film, it just feels like a horror film that's skews much older than the average horror film. 

 

We'll see, but unless something crazy happens, I wouldn't expect this to be the next M3GAN or The Black Phone. 

[Flopped]

30 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

Speak No Evil

 

T-7

 

Thursday: 250 Seats Sold (From 13 Theaters)

 

Taken as of 9:45AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: It's really difficult to gauge how well this will do based on pre-sales, but I'm expecting an opening that can't go any lower than $10M. Unlike past Blumhouse releases (Imaginary and AfrAId) reviews should actually be good (and James McAvoy's presence is always welcome), but it's gonna be hard to appeal to the prime moviegoing demographic for horror films (18-34 years old). Especially with it being a remake of a Danish horror film, it just feels like a horror film that's skews much older than the average horror film. 

 

We'll see, but unless something crazy happens, I wouldn't expect this to be the next M3GAN or The Black Phone. 

 

With the amount of spamming they've done, this should really open north of 20. That marketing campaign was EXPENSIVE. Billboards and bus ads everywhere here. 

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

You forgot Patrick Mahomes kicking off the NFL season tonight and Jalen Hurts doing it tomorrow night.

This movie may have a Marvel Saturday of old b/c there's no opening week NFL football on Saturday...or it may not.

I have been saying this for awhile now. I think too many people have ignored that being a factor in True Thursday not blowing up big. The Friday game is on peacock so it will not probably affect as much though.

Edited September 5 by emoviefan

[CheeseWizard]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

If TIFF reception is good though that ought to help pique adult consumer interest earlier

Wait is Toronto the first time it’s being shown?

 

1 hour ago, YM! said:

The GA or at the very least kids and families quite liked KFP4

Fair enough. Does the fact that it’s apparently a popular children’s book help it in the slightest? I know it doesn’t look much like the book though so idk. If I was a kid and it didn’t look *exactly* like the book I’d be really upset tbh and much more hesitant 

[filmlover]

I'm feeling Speak No Evil will end up making similar numbers to Ma ($45M total).

[AniNate]

2 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

Wait is Toronto the first time it’s being shown?

 

That's when the embargo is gonna be lifted surely. It has already screened for some critics.

[CheeseWizard]

4 minutes ago, AniNate said:

That's when the embargo is gonna be lifted surely. It has already screened for some critics.

Fuckin hell, an embargo lift that early? They must be really confident. Even TFOne’s embargo isn’t being lifted until the 12th, and I’ve spent the last month with friends of mine who’ve seen it banging on about how good it is. 

Edited September 5 by CheeseWizard

[filmlover]

Must once again be stated that these prestigious film festivals have no embargoes.

[AniNate]

I guess we must have a lot of newbies here. Film festivals and TIFF especially are public events where everyone is free to tweet what they think instantly after a screening just like they would be at a multiplex. The whole point of screening your movie there is to get buzz out about your movie early and attract more interest from prospective distributors and/or general audiences.

[keysersoze123]

On 9/3/2024 at 10:04 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early Shows(9/4) - 40276/107924 836888.06 457 shows +4343

Previews(T-2) - 95906/871154 1701847.30 4827 shows +13794

Friday - 112261/1401783 1947469.51 7652 shows +19856

 

It did have a boost but not as much as what I expected. Hopefully we see another big boost tomorrow and 4x thursday sales on final day with good walkups. 

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early Shows Final - 50343/109967 1037656.21 466 shows +10067

Previews(T-1) - 112602/890950 1973676.88 4967 shows +16696

Friday - 137207/1459482 2356328.97 8064 shows +24946

 

Disappointing T-1 sales. Even Early shows did not hit what I expected a day earlier. I think Friday and beyond sales are strong and we are beyond Summer. So 100m is still likely but not too much beyond that. I dont see anything more than 110m. 

 

[AnthonyJPHer]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early Shows Final - 50343/109967 1037656.21 466 shows +10067

Previews(T-1) - 112602/890950 1973676.88 4967 shows +16696

Friday - 137207/1459482 2356328.97 8064 shows +24946

 

Disappointing T-1 sales. Even Early shows did not hit what I expected a day earlier. I think Friday and beyond sales are strong and we are beyond Summer. So 100m is still likely but not too much beyond that. I dont see anything more than 110m. 

 

I’m thinking it’s going to heavily over perform in walk ups on Friday and Saturday. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice 2 MTC2

Early Shows(9/4) - 25538/56482 439085.64 338 shows

Previews(T-2) - 62141/670968 900293.20 5274 shows

Friday - 85433/1011726 1169586.48 7548 shows

 

Friday ran whole day yesterday. its sales relative to previews is very promising. I could see something like 3/11/27/34/25 and still hit 100m OW. It could definitely go higher than that. 

Beetlejuice 2 MTC2

Early shows Final - 31223/57854 535360.60 347 shows

Previews(T-1) - 77375/731304 1112196.61 5886 shows

Friday - 104695/1115019 1418643.17 8626 shows

 

I am thinking 2.75m for Early BO. Thursday looks like struggling to 11m by itself. If the studio combine both I am thinking 13.5m overall previews for the movie. 

[crazymoviekid]

Guessing It will be safe for another year.

[el sid]

A bit outdated but for completeness (numbers of today soon):

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, counted on Monday for Friday (with shows in 7 theaters). 4 days left.

It had 2093 sold tickets (with shows in 7 theaters). Best presales by far in the AMC in LA (963). Very even sales in my three bigger theaters (always ~ 300 tickets). Nice increases in the smaller theaters in Texas, Michigan and Arizona (with 24 days left it had 73 sold tickets combined, now it has 242 tickets combined). 

 

Comps: It 2 (26.5M true Friday) had also counted on Monday of the release week for Friday 2.404 sold tickets= 87% for BB = 23.05M true Friday. 

And Kung Fu Panda 4 (15.6M true Friday) finally (= on Thursday of the release week for Friday) had 1.185 sold tickets = 27.6M + 3 days left for BB (so for sure more than 30M).

[el sid]

The Front Room had, counted today for today, 94 sold tickets (with shows in 6 theaters). 

Up modest 18% since yesterday.

 

Average (compared to the presales of Abigail, The Invitation, M3gan, The First Omen, Prey for the Devil, Blink Twice, Smile and Tarot): 325k (6x 350-400k). 

I agree, definitely not the best release date.

[ThomasNicole]

It feels like pretty much every big movie this year followed this same pattern: strong presales cycle pointing to big OW, followed by a disappointing final week bringing expectations down, and a late surge in walkups that bring it up again.

 

Let’s see if it happens here. But i’m more than fine with 105M or so if it didn’t.

Edited September 5 by ThomasNicole

[BadOlCatSylvester]

If Beetlejuice can get to at least $100M then Warner can't have much to complain about. This is going to be Burton's biggest hit in eons.

[Ryan C]

20 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It feels like pretty much every big movie this followed this same pattern: strong presales cycle pointing to big OW, followed by a disappointing final week bringing expectations down, and a late surge in walkups that bring it up again.

 

Let’s see if it happens here. But i’m more than fine with 105M or so if it didn’t.

 

This might be one of the rare cases where the industry tracking ($100M-$110M) will be right on point. 

 

Still, I'm having faith that walk-ups will push this to as high as $125M. Audience reception should be great (my audience enjoyed it last night) and this most likely won't play like a fan-driven film. Never mind the fact that we just started September and not everyone can go just see a movie (that's also partially aimed at families) on Thursday night. 

 

It doesn't exactly need to go higher because the budget was responsible ($100M), but if we want 2024 to beat 2023's $9B domestic gross, we need it to overperform like a lot of the other new big releases we've had these past few months.

 

I sincerely hope it does.