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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

By Shawn Robbins, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by katnisscinnaplex,

Presales Tracking Information   I guess this is as good of a time as any to share this sheet I've been putting together for the past few weeks.  It's a table of movies from the past few years with relevant pre-sales information (release date, sales date, sales window, previews gross, etc.)  @datpepper and I will try to keep it updated when ticket sales dates are announced for upcoming films to make those easier to find.     There are a few gaps in the sheet where I couldn't f

Pre Sale Data Google Doc

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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.
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Posted by ZeeSoh,

Moderation: Moved some posts to the Wild Robot thread. For reasons please avoid mentioning or linking BOP in the tracking thread. 
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

 

Comparaison :

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 64465/708181 1266710.99 3630 shows +3717

Friday - 47657/1053420 893211.29 5361 shows +4938

 

With the Marvels comp , it's around 6M with EA, and 10M True Friday. But the worst is the pace between T-13 and T-4 , the pace is around the half of Marvels 😬

Yeah the pace is one thing that is slightly odd, I almost wonder if I'm missing some data. Need to check that.

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Arlborn Global Phenomenon

Arlborn

Posted
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2 hours ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Joker 2 MTC1

 

EA:

23187/52615, 177 shows

 

Thu:

46965/978602, 5049 shows

 

Fri:

33670/1008095, 5226 shows

 

Low numbers, similar to/under Marvels and The Flash at the same point. 

Joker is ending up at 40M OW this weekend, isn't it? Looking at all the tracking trends over the weeks, it just seems to pick up no moment at all, quite the opposite actually. Rather depressing, that.

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The Wild Eric Global Phenomenon

The Wild Eric

Posted
Posted

Quorum Updates

Saturday Night T-11: 22.73% Awareness, 39.88% Interest

A Complete Unknown T-86: 16.59% Awareness, 34.94% Interest

Companion T-102: 11.3% Awareness, 34.51% Interest

F1 T-270: 22.04% Awareness, 37.01% Interest

 

Joker: Folie a Deux T-4: 73.01% Awareness, 61.57% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 86% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 90% chance of 70M, 80% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 100M

 

White Bird T-4: 20.2% Awareness, 35.1% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 9% chance of 20M

 

The Apprentice T-11: 25.14% Awareness, 37.1% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 9% chance of 20M

 

Piece by Piece T-11: 23.91% Awareness, 31.06% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Interest: 33% chance of 20M

 

Terrifier 3 T-11: 33.95% Awareness, 40.44% Interest

Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 44% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 41% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M

 

Heretic T-39: 13.81% Awareness, 35.39% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 30% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 25% chance of 10M

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Firepower Box Office Gold

Firepower

Posted
Posted

I just checked international threads and it feels like Joker is gonna be reverse Twisters. Embarrassing domestic gross and decent overseas gross. Kinda mirroring the first one where it underperformed domestically compared to the rest of the world, probably because the first one was more liked overseas.

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Flopped Box Office Gold

Flopped

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I just checked international threads and it feels like Joker is gonna be reverse Twisters. Embarrassing domestic gross and decent overseas gross. Kinda mirroring the first one where it underperformed domestically compared to the rest of the world, probably because the first one was more liked overseas.

 

Americans' allergy to non-generic movies continues. 

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Kon Box Office Gold

Kon

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

 

Comparaison :

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 64465/708181 1266710.99 3630 shows +3717

Friday - 47657/1053420 893211.29 5361 shows +4938

 

With the Marvels comp , it's around 6M with EA, and 10M True Friday. But the worst is the pace between T-13 and T-4 , the pace is around the half of Marvels 😬

Following these numbers, under 40M OW could be a possibility, right?

Edited by Kon
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toutvabien Sleeper Hit

toutvabien

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I just checked international threads and it feels like Joker is gonna be reverse Twisters. Embarrassing domestic gross and decent overseas gross. Kinda mirroring the first one where it underperformed domestically compared to the rest of the world, probably because the first one was more liked overseas.

Well, ~$350m OS is still less than half of the first film's $743m total. Also, I can see what "underperforming compared to the rest of the world" is supposed to mean in this context, however I'd say it was more of a case of it broke out all over the world on a very equal level. Film was big in every damn place on Earth. This is looking like making less than half, but the apathy is gonna be more varried.

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Firepower Box Office Gold

Firepower

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

Well, ~$350m OS is still less than half of the first film's $743m total. Also, I can see what "underperforming compared to the rest of the world" is supposed to mean in this context, however I'd say it was more of a case of it broke out all over the world on a very equal level. Film was big in every damn place on Earth. This is looking like making less than half, but the apathy is gonna be more varried.

I mean it's still a huge drop, sure, but it feels like apathy is much stronger domestically. If the first one performed domestically like in the rest of the world, it would've easily taken the highest grossing R rated DOM until Deadpool & Wolverine, but maybe those US controversies hurt it because mass shootings is a much more sensitive topic in US than overseas.

Edited by Firepower
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Grand Cine Sleeper Hit

Grand Cine

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 9/27/2024 at 3:52 AM, Shawn Robbins said:

Sadly, no.

 

For the trackers here, I'm curious to suggest looking at Alien: Romulus as a comp in your data at this stage.

 

Needless to say, the published number on BOT is going down again with tonight/tomorrow morning's update. Unless a rapid turnaround happens next week, it's more likely to make in total domestic gross what we once had it pretty close to for the opening.

Shawn said this Friday so i looking at data and unfortunetely i don't find , just at the end of previews , so i would see also with It Ends With Us which open in mid 40's but it's difficult because he don't have PLF or Imax like Joker 2 so i made the normal comp but i adjust with 25% up to be at the same level and the result is meh

 

ITWU :

EA  : Around 23,1K seats ( Comp : around 1,2-1,3M)

Previews : around 34,4K  ( Comp : 7M)

Friday : around 45,6K (Comp : 15,6M)

 

Clearly the comp will fall .

 

Just for the result :

 

Alien final previews and Friday :

Alien Romulus MTC1

Previews - 125347/536441 2163359.90 2867 shows

Friday - 84148/845635 1472171.28 4495 shows

 

 

 

Edited by Grand Cine
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Alexander Indie Sensation

Alexander

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I just checked international threads and it feels like Joker is gonna be reverse Twisters. Embarrassing domestic gross and decent overseas gross. Kinda mirroring the first one where it underperformed domestically compared to the rest of the world, probably because the first one was more liked overseas.

I'm not sure. Reactions here seem really, really bad. Like 2/10-6/10 bad. Even if it happens ok in some markets I think 2nd weekend drops could be awful everywhere because no teen / tiktok audience unlike Venom for example.

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Grand Cine Sleeper Hit

Grand Cine

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

Wicked on sale Oct 11

Yes the first part of Gladiator/Wicked duo begin . The marketing accelerate for the movie with Vanity Fair Cover and the lie detector video . Clearly for this one , Wonka is the best comp , maybe also Mean Girls or It Ends With Us .

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Firepower Box Office Gold

Firepower

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Alexander said:

I'm not sure. Reactions here seem really, really bad. Like 2/10-6/10 bad. Even if it happens ok in some markets I think 2nd weekend drops could be awful everywhere because no teen / tiktok audience unlike Venom for example.

I see both 2-6/10 and 9-10/10, it's just very divisive, love/hate movie. Let's see final first weekend and how it holds first. Divisive movies can still hold well as long as there's an audience that geniunely loves it. It's much worse for legs when everyone is "ehh".

Edited by Firepower
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