The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-34

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
153	485	27838	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

35

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

nothing yet

 

349 seats sold at MTC1 Disney over 6 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-33

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
153	513	27838	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

28

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

nothing yet

 

371 seats sold at MTC1 Disney over 6 showings 

[keysersoze123]

I expected Marvels to have way stronger Friday sales than what I have seen so far. I thought Veterans/Remembrance day boost will be there plus with not so great previews sales, Friday would be stronger. I think it needs another catalyst at this point. 

 

Marvels // As of about a day ago. 

Previews - 40389/688559 810187.69 3518 shows

Friday - 21808/1037765 418433.62 5267 shows

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

Five Nights at Freddy's, T-8/D1, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 296

New sales: N/A

Growth: N/A

Theatres: 10

Showtimes: 32

Tickets per showtime: 9.25

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

8.22x Saw X for $16.4M (D1 comp)

59.20x Nun 2 for $183.5M (D1 comp)

7.05x Exorcist Believer for $20.1M (D15 comp)

 

So, I did a full manual count and it didn't kill me, so maybe I drop a few of these occasionally.

 

I used a smaller range of theatres, but still have 10 to give some balance to it.

 

The Saw X is the real comp here. Exorcist was up for sale for two weeks already. Nun 2 was really slow to start and just underperformed.

 

It's a strong performance against Saw X, but, sales for that doubled on day 2. I don't see that happening here. But, Saw X also overperformed in Canada for whatever dark reasons they may be.

 

What jumps out is how variable sales are. My local theatre, which usually tracks below average, has the most popular showtime. I'm also in a very family oriented community, so it might speak to the demographics.

 

Also, there's a lot of theatres that aren't doing great, and I wonder if it relates to those in areas where theatres opened up Friday and beyond sales earlier than previews. Saw X was only available for previews until T-3 or so. 

 

Overall, it's a good opening day, but, I was expecting better.

 

 

 

Five Nights at Freddy's, T-7/D2, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 553

New sales: 257

Growth: 86.8%

Theatres: 10

Showtimes: 32

Tickets per showtime: 17.3

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

7.79x Saw X for $15.6M (D2 comp)

34.6x Nun 2 for $107.1M (D2 comp)

10.43x Exorcist Believer for $29.7M (D16 comp)

 

 

It's really good day for FNAF. It basically held pace with Saw X, despite the bigger scale. I didn't think it would match.

 

Growth happened pretty consistently across all 10 theatres as well. Lowest performing theatre is the one of the group that has full weekend advance sales as well, so I think that continues to be a big factor in driving sales.

[Krissykins]

Ooh 10-15m for Thanksgiving would be solid. Thats higher than I would’ve thought for Hunger Games too, looks like a 20m opener to me. 

[Porthos]

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Killers of the Flower Moon Sacto Check [T-1]

973/11929 (8.16% sold) [+153 tickets] 95 showtimes

 

0.43072x Nope at T-1                [2.76m]

0.42694x Creed III at T-1           [2.33m]

0.26248x Oppenheimer at T-1  [2.76m]

 

Not a good next-to-last day locally at all, sad to say.

 

No mid-day check for Q&Ds so final check will be sometime after 4:30pm local time. 

 

Quick and Dirty Killers of the Flower Moon Sacto Check [FINAL] [4:15pm - 4:20pm]

1559/11929 (13.07% sold) [+586 tickets] 95 showtimes

 

0.40790x Nope at T-0               [3:45-4:35]   [2.61m]

0.44645x Creed III at T-0          [6:25-6:40]   [2.43m]

0.33737x Oppenheimer at T-0 [4:30-4:40]    [3.54m]

 

Decent enough walkups for today, especially considering last night.

 

Main problem for me is lack of good comps, especially with the best comp having capacity concerns.  Creed III being low is probably much later sample time and demo but if I throw them all into blender, I get 2.86m, so considering it might be doing better in parts of the US where this type of film might not normally and Nope having 2022 ATPs, let's go with 2.9m +/- .2m.

 

Could have been worse, I suppose.

 

(as always, no guarantees when it comes to Q&Ds)

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Porthos

[abracadabra1998]

28 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Killers of the Flower Moon Sacto Check [FINAL] [4:15pm - 4:20pm]

1559/11929 (13.07% sold) [+586 tickets] 95 showtimes

 

0.40790x Nope at T-0               [3:45-4:35]   [2.61m]

0.44645x Creed III at T-0          [6:25-6:40]   [2.43m]

0.33737x Oppenheimer at T-0 [4:30-4:40]    [3.54m]

 

Decent enough walkups for today, especially considering last night.

 

Main problem for me is lack of good comps, especially with the best comp having capacity concerns.  Creed III being low is probably much later sample time and demo but if I throw them all into blender, I get 2.86m, so considering it might be doing better in parts of the US where this type of film might not normally and Nope having 2022 ATPs, let's go with 2.9m +/- .2m.

 

Could have been worse, I suppose.

 

(as always, no guarantees when it comes to Q&Ds)

 

Let the actuals be $3.05 M so we can both call it a W, sound good??

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/18/2023 at 7:20 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2120	52152	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

57

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(0.455x) of GOTG3~$7.97M Previews

(1.246x) of Indy 5~$8.97M Previews

Comps AVG: $8.47M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2135	52152	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(0.455x) of GOTG3~$7.97M Previews

(1.232x) of Indy 5~$8.87M Previews

Comps AVG: $8.42M

[misterpepp]

Priscilla on sale tomorrow.

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, YM! said:

Surprised Trolls tracking is pretty weak, considering the Quorum data was very good.

The last one was a monster...on streaming. No one saw it in theaters. Wouldn't be much of a surprise if a lot of families will just wait to watch this the same way too since it'll likely be on Peacock by Christmas.

 

A rather rough start for Hunger Games, but not unexpected since it's arriving with even less fanfare than The Marvels (which is already looking like an underperformer). Maybe Wish will be the savior of what's looking to be a blah November.

[keysersoze123]

Killers of the Flower Moon

Previews - 56650/342597 940194.74 2218 shows

Friday -  60244/508440 999583.10 3345 shows

 

Its not final number was it was taken earlier in the evening. But thinking around 60K finish. So probably enough to squeak by 3m due to good ATP. Friday makes me think its going for around 11m with previews and high 20s OW. 

 

Eras should win the day with around 4-4.5m gross. Since @charlie Jatinder said Eras thursday will not be part of the weekend, its going to be close. I think Eras has the slight advantage due to humongous ATP. 

[emoviefan]

52 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Killers of the Flower Moon

Previews - 56650/342597 940194.74 2218 shows

Friday -  60244/508440 999583.10 3345 shows

 

Its not final number was it was taken earlier in the evening. But thinking around 60K finish. So probably enough to squeak by 3m due to good ATP. Friday makes me think its going for around 11m with previews and high 20s OW. 

 

Eras should win the day with around 4-4.5m gross. Since @charlie Jatinder said Eras thursday will not be part of the weekend, its going to be close. I think Eras has the slight advantage due to humongous ATP. 

Considering the length and subject matter and the lack of actors to promote it and give it the final push high 20s would not be bad. 

[Porthos]

On 10/13/2023 at 2:09 AM, Porthos said:

 

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-49 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	71	10507	11045	538	4.87%

 

Total Showings Added Since Sunday	1
Total Seats Added Since Sunday	229
Total Seats Sold Since Sunday	18

 

Comp against TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.52907x The Era Tours Final Previews [???m] [???x adj]

 

Next update, next Thursday night (T-42).

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-42 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	71	10477	11045	568	5.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Thursday

30

 

Comp against TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.55851x The Era Tours Final Previews [1.88m] [1.2x adj]

 

Next update, next Thursday night (T-35).

[Porthos]

On 10/19/2023 at 12:15 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	187	26613	27515	902	3.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

15

 

T-22 Comps:

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	73.87		148	1221		0/96	14322/15543	7.86%		6409	14.07%		7.93m
GOTG3	29.93		105	3014		0/206	26655/29669	10.16%		10750	8.39%		5.24m
TLM	98.90		63	912		0/154	21736/22648	4.03%		6561	13.75%		10.19m
AtSV	66.37		87	1359		0/123	18537/19896	6.83%		9744	9.26%		11.52m
Flash	119.00		118	758		0/174	23970/24728	3.07%		5327	16.93%		11.54m
Indy 5	100.78		48	895		0/124	18626/19521	4.58%		4767	18.92%		7.26m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     122/8661  [1.41% sold]
Matinee:    28/2547  [1.10% | 3.10% of all tickets sold]
3D:            65/4989  [1.30% | 7.21% of all tickets sold]

 

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26712	27628	916	3.32%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	113
Total Seats Sold Today	14

 

T-21 Comps:

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	68.51		116	1337		0/96	14206/15543	8.60%		6409	14.29%		7.36m
GOTG3	29.48		93	3107		0/206	26559/29666	10.47%		10750	8.52%		5.16m
TLM	94.24		60	972		0/154	21676/22648	4.29%		6561	13.96%		9.71m
AtSV	62.74		101	1460		0/123	18436/19896	7.34%		9744	9.40%		10.89m
Flash	110.49		71	829		0/174	23899/24728	3.35%		5327	17.20%		10.72m
Indy 5	98.28		37	932		0/124	18589/19521	4.77%		4767	19.22%		7.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     124/8661  [1.43% sold]
Matinee:    28/2547  [1.10% | 3.06% of all tickets sold]
3D:            66/5039  [1.31% | 7.21% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 10/19/2023 at 12:16 AM, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	126	15480	18029	2549	14.14%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	334
Total Seats Sold Today	122

 

T-8 Comps:   WARNING - USE MOSTLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	200.08		82	1274		0/152	21685/22959	5.55%		4494	56.72%		15.01m
Scrm6	285.76		42	892		0/77	8855/9747	9.15%		3134	81.33%		16.29m
Wick4	161.02		120	1583		0/109	13716/15299	10.35%		5448	46.79%		14.33m
AtSV	92.15		173	2766		0/140	19376/22142	12.49%		9744	26.16%		15.99m
GOTG3	57.81		170	4409		0/207	25574/29983	14.70%		10750	23.71%		10.12m
TLM	113.19		122	2252		0/165	21248/23500	9.58%		6561	38.85%		11.66m
Flash	153.55		111	1660		0/178	23488/25148	6.60%		5327	47.85%		14.89m
Barbie	69.61		432	3662		0/179	17666/21378	17.13%		12077	21.11%		15.52m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     547/3078  [17.77% sold]
Matinee:    207/926  [22.35% | 8.12% of all tickets sold]

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	138	16614	19333	2719	14.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today	12
Total Seats Added Today	1304
Total Seats Sold Today	170

 

T-7 Comps:   WARNING - USE MOSTLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	194.63		123	1397		0/152	21562/22959	6.08%		4494	60.50%		14.60m
Scrm6	269.47		117	1009		0/77	8738/9747	10.35%		3134	86.76%		15.36m
Wick4	155.91		161	1744		0/113	13827/15571	11.20%		5448	49.91%		13.88m
AtSV	89.77		263	3029		0/140	19113/22142	13.68%		9744	27.90%		15.57m
GOTG3	58.71		222	4631		0/207	25352/29983	15.45%		10750	25.29%		10.27m
TLM	112.26		170	2422		0/168	21392/23814	10.17%		6561	41.44%		11.56m
Flash	156.81		74	1734		0/178	23414/25148	6.90%		5327	51.04%		15.21m
Barbie	66.28		440	4102		0/180	17310/21412	19.16%		12077	22.51%		14.78m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     554/4382  [12.64% sold]
Matinee:    209/926  [22.57% | 7.69% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

 

One Day Pace numbers are probably not a smart idea [at all], but since @M37 was calling this Moving Day, some pace numbers locally looking at T-7 only:

 

FNAF:

	%		Sold T-7	Pace %	Total Sold			Final Sold			One Day Pace
BA	194.63		123	138.21%	1397			4494			11.68m
AtSV	89.77		263	64.64%	3029			9744			12.57m
GOTG3	58.71		222	76.58%	4631			10750			12.05m
TLM	112.26		170	100.00%	2422			6561			10.77m
Barbie	66.28		440	38.64%	4102			12077			10.71m

That is, if FNAF continued to sell at the T-7 pace for the rest of the run but kept the amount of tickets it had already sold, those comps at the end would be spat out.

 

(not included: The Flash at 19.98m lol)

 

Considering most, if not all, of the above films are in their social (or even review) bounces, that's probably not too bad.  Feeling pretty good about 12m-13m, though 13m-14m is absolutely still on the table if FNAF starts to really get a boost from all of the added showings and/or its own reactions next week.

 

Am kinda thinking 11m might be the floor, unless the bottom drops out.  Suppose what I'm curious in seeing is how it does over FSS, with Sunday being the key for me.  Till then consider the above a curiosity at best, especially since a three-day rolling average would probably be far more useful and informative.  But hey, I've been mentally pegging this around 12m-13m and lo and behold, look what the AtSV and GOTG3 comps give...

(ignore the TLM/Barbie ones for that comment, obvs 😛 )

Edited October 20, 2023 by Porthos

[Boxofficerules]

"Chart Movers

 

You don’t think of horror in November, but THANKSGIVING is looking to change all that. Tracking suggests that it’s got a shot to break out. Awareness for the film is 8 points this week. Interest is up 6 points. Scary good."

Edited October 20, 2023 by Boxofficerules

[vale9001]

Good Thursday for TET right?. Last week previews were of course very "improvised" but doing like 60-70% better than that still seems encouraging now can play with cute numbers for the next weekends.

Edited October 20, 2023 by vale9001

[Mulder]

My one thing with FNAF, though other people can voice what they think and if they disagree, is I kind of doubt this will fizzle out into a big multiplier. It's a (very) fan driven property with a huge novelty factor which will be hampered to at least some degree by being on Peacock and the (most likely judging by the lifting of the embargo) negative reviews. That being said, I feel like 30-40 for this would still be insanely impressive.

[Boxofficerules]

11 minutes ago, Mulder said:

My one thing with FNAF, though other people can voice what they think and if they disagree, is I kind of doubt this will fizzle out into a big multiplier. It's a (very) fan driven property with a huge novelty factor which will be hampered to at least some degree by being on Peacock and the (most likely judging by the lifting of the embargo) negative reviews. That being said, I feel like 30-40 for this would still be insanely impressive.

Peacock will also lead to piracy, I feel the target audience for this will know how to illegally stream a movie, they may go see it opening weekend but opt for a pirate copy for further screenings.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Boxofficerules
Typo

[BadOlCatSylvester]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

The last one was a monster...on streaming. No one saw it in theaters. Wouldn't be much of a surprise if a lot of families will just wait to watch this the same way too since it'll likely be on Peacock by Christmas.

 

A rather rough start for Hunger Games, but not unexpected since it's arriving with even less fanfare than The Marvels (which is already looking like an underperformer). Maybe Wish will be the savior of what's looking to be a blah November.

Also, the first two Trolls movies weren't exactly beloved classics that left a major imprint on pop culture, so the third one walking away empty handed wouldn't be much of a shock. It's yet another streaming gold rush baby that'll end up taking its first steps inside a far different environment than the one it was conceived in.

 

Songbirds and Snakes flopping is also not surprising in the least. The original movies ended on a pretty sour note with Mockingjay, so this one needed a unique hook and a strong marketing campaign to succeed. It has neither, so it'll be lucky to make even $300M worldwide at this point.

 

This holiday season is going to be rough. Probably the worst one for exhibition outside of 2020 in quite a while. The holiday corridor has been highly lucrative ever since the first Hobbit movie back in 2012. Barring 2020 for obvious reasons, here was always a big billion, or at least near-billion dollar hit each year in the December corridor. This year the biggest movie might struggle to reach half a billion worldwide. I really hope theater employees don't end up losing their jobs by next year.