The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[jeffthehat]

 

14 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Did anyone expect it to put up numbers close to the OG movies? it's a prequel, there is no J-Law star power here, and the YA genre is deader than dead.

 

It will be interesting to see the audience breakdown for this. Part of me wonders if its audience has aged up like the MCU has. 

[Eric is Anxious]

https://deadline.com/2023/11/beyonce-concert-film-renaissance-box-office-projection-1235615818/

 

Quote

EXCLUSIVE: So AMC‘s second concert movie, Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé, hit tracking recently with a $20M opening projection. You’ll remember that the No. 1 circuit in the world, which is distributing the movie to other exhibitors through Variance (which also was tapped to handle AMC’s concert movie Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour) set a Dec. 1 release date. That’s a notoriously slow post-Thanksgiving frame for moviegoing.

 

 

Renaissance, which has more of documentary quality to it than Eras Tour, always was expected to debut in this range, so no surprise here. When the movie was announced, despite Beyoncé’s latest concert tour grossing close to $600M, per Live Nation back in August — the seventh-highest-grossing concert of all time, with wild estimates out there that the tour could rack up $2.4 billion — distribution sources have been figuring that the film would not post Eras Tour-type opening numbers. The Swift pic saw a $92.8M domestic opening $123M global debut and has a current running total over $241M worldwide. That was evident in the first-day presales, with Beyoncé doing around $6M-$7M back in October to Swift’s $37M (building to $65M before opening day). Swift caught lightning in a bottle: She released the movie at the end of the U.S. leg of her comeback tour before heading overseas; the live-event a challenge to nab tickets to. Many in distribution circles wonder if another concert movie feat such as Eras Tour on the big screen could ever be accomplished again. Perhaps with Harry Styles…

 

Hands down, olden women are the prime demo for Renaissance, followed by younger women. Black demos for the movie show popularity among older males and females. Tickets began selling at $22.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

 

Maybe the Dark Magic pulls one out again (a weaker West Coast in general could drag down numbers), but I suspect it’s more a combination of female-skewing crowd (see Barbie & Scream VI) plus a less metro audience (Indy & TGM, but without the dad-action bump that keeps your market in line)

 

The only other comp I see above Shazam (higher PSM) would be Oppy, but that was driven by a huge PLF share and capacity limitations 

Sacto is Potter land. MiniTC2 doing well in West.

Edited November 17, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[tonytr87]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Getting back to the KFP/Dune 2 debate...I'm way more bullish on Panda than Dune 

 

I could see $80M+ OW for KFP4 as kids who grew up with those films are now adults - should play strong in terms of nostalgia 

 

Dune will surely blow past $50M OW (I think). However, I do think it has a hard ceiling due to the genre and niche audience pool. $70M would be my ceiling. 

 

What? KFP3 flopped, didn't it? 

[charlie Jatinder]

37 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Always say Dark Magic Does Not (Necessarily) Apply for Quick and Dirty checks for a reason. 🙂 

Excuses. Take the L Wizard.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

What? KFP3 flopped, didn't it? 

Not really no. Big dip, as most of the 500m total was from US and China but nostalgia has shined kindly on the franchise and the appeal of bringing back past villains might work.

[Grand Cine]

i think Hunger Games will make 3 5,4M and Trolls 1,2M ( 2,1M with EA) , it's just a prediction .

[BOfficeStats]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

One final note, that I suppose you could classify under "buzz": after watching a TV spot for Wonka, my teenage daughter goes:

 

"That's not Willy Wonka"

 

"Why? Its just a prequel"

 

"Cause he's hot.🥵 Wonka is not supposed to be hot, so that can't be him"

 

Adjust your forecasts accordingly

Looks like Momoa has some direct competition this Christmas.  

[Eric is Anxious]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

That's not Willy Wonka"

 

"Why? Its just a prequel"

 

"Cause he's hot.🥵 Wonka is not supposed to be hot, so that can't be him"

 

Adjust your forecasts accordingly

This is bullshit though, because Gene Wilder was sexy as hell back in the day.

 

[Cmasterclay]

Wonka not hot, you say?

 

[Eric is Anxious]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Wonka not hot, you say?

 

I mean he's cute, but...come on lol

[YM!]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

That's not Willy Wonka"

 

"Why? Its just a prequel"

 

"Cause he's hot.🥵 Wonka is not supposed to be hot, so that can't be him"

[crazymoviekid]

Do we know how much Trolls made in EAs?

[Grand Cine]

3 minutes ago, crazymoviekid said:

Do we know how much Trolls made in EAs?

Around 1M

[M37]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

I mean anything that tries to explain FB2/FB3 over-performing but BOSS under-performing is gonna be... a difficult circle to square.

Without getting too much into the weeds, I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to say that heroes who who wield a magic wand vs bow & arrow are going to appeal to groups from different walks of life 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Trolls Band Together MTC1

Previews - 9611/375499 136577.15 2620 shows +2021

Friday - 24520/607494 349759.46 4099 shows +4531

 

Terrible day for sure. Its less than half of Elemental at this point. Even if we account for MTC1 under index its not going to do more than 1.3m or so. 

Trolls Band Together MTC1

Previews final - 19320/375411 271490.18 2619 shows +9709

Friday - 34961/608443 496361.99 4115 shows

 

I think they will add EA to this and report 2m in previews tomorrow :-) I think walkups on Friday will be weaker compared to say Elemental as that was summer and kids were off. I am thinking 6-7m true friday and around ~25m OW. 

Caveat: its tough to be accurate on small preview movies. Small changes have big impact. Say over performance in Canada can take in few hundred K more. 

Edited November 17, 2023 by keysersoze123

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/12/2023 at 10:58 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Godzilla Minus One (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-17	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 14 theaters	29	31	123	3614	3.4
Wednesday Nov 29 EA: 10 theaters	16	34	268	3247	8.25
TOTALS:	45	65	391	6861	5.7

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		273	52	69.82
MTC1:		283	36	72.38
Marcus:		49	8	12.53
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		59	21	15.09

 

Comps (Thursday only) :

0.41x KOFM: $1.07 Million

0.11x Oppenheimer: $1.19 Million

 

Early Access Comps:

0.33x Barbie EA: $365k

0.95x MI7 Monday EA: $1.18 Million***

***Making a huge, mostly unfounded ballpark that Monday EA was about $1.25 Million out of the total $2 Million (there were more shows on Monday than on Sunday, and Monday EA had PLFs which Sunday did not).

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Godzilla Minus One (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-13	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 14 theaters	30	44	167	3866	4.32
Wednesday Nov 29 EA: 11 theaters	18	72	340	4089	8.31
TOTALS:	48	116	507	7955	6.37

 

Comps (Thursday only) :

0.5x KOFM: $1.29 Million

1.46x The Creator: $1.98 Million

0.13x Oppenheimer: $1.33 Million

 

Average: $1.53 Million

 

Early Access Comps:

0.39x Barbie EA: $425k

0.95x MI7 Monday EA: $1.19 Million***

***Making a huge, mostly unfounded ballpark that Monday EA was about $1.25 Million out of the total $2 Million (there were more shows on Monday than on Sunday, and Monday EA had PLFs which Sunday did not).

 

Honestly this is doing pretty well, Thursday keeps growing despite the presence of EA shows as well. No PLFs for Thursday will mean ATP is a lot lower than all three of those comps though.

 

On 11/9/2023 at 6:52 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	43	39	1011	7733	13.07

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		856	34	84.67
MTC1:		878	33	86.84
Marcus:		54	0	5.34
Alamo:		12	4	1.19
Other chains:		67	2	6.63

 

Comp:

0.0840x Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Friday): $2.92 Million

 

First update in a long time that it didn't drop against TET. I feel a bit ridiculous comparing something in the hundreths of decimals and so it's prone to extreme variation but it's the best I can do. Not too far off @Porthos who is using Taylor's Thursday numbers, so I don't feel horrible doing it, but still.

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	43	57	1068	7733	13.81

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		899	43	84.18
MTC1:		912	34	85.39
Marcus:		54	0	5.06
Alamo:		14	2	1.31
Other chains:		88	21	8.24

 

Comp:

0.0854x Taylor Swift Eras Tour (Friday): $2.97 Million

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wonka (T-29, Day 1, Taken around 11 PM CST):

Day: T-29	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	54	47	47	10150	0.46

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		47	47	100
MTC1:		32	32	68.09
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		9	9	19.15
Other chains:		6	6	12.77

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.85x The Color Purple: ??

1x Napoleon: ??

0.24x Hunger Games: $1.39 Million (using comp average from my earlier update, $5.67M)

0.23x FNAF: $2.44 Million

1.24x The Creator: $1.98 Million

 

Missed all the fun talk from earlier it seems! Anyway a mish mash of Day 1 comps that all point to what @TheFlatLannister said earlier: no early rush. I don't think many were expecting that though, so we shall see how it progresses from here.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wonka (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	63	20	67	12212	0.55

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		66	47	98.51
MTC1:		48	32	71.64
Marcus:		2	0	2.99
Alamo:		11	9	16.42
Other chains:		6	6	8.96

 

Day 2 comp:

0.27x Hunger Games: $1.56 Million (for simplicity sake still using the same value I used yesterday)

 

T-28 comps:

0.11x Barbie (including EA here since 80% of early sales were Wednesday at this checkpoint): $2.45 Million

0.1x Oppy: $1.07 Million

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Trolls Band Together MTC1

Previews final - 19320/375411 271490.18 2619 shows +9709

Friday - 34961/608443 496361.99 4115 shows

 

I think they will add EA to this and report 2m in previews tomorrow 🙂 I think walkups on Friday will be weaker compared to say Elemental as that was summer and kids were off. I am thinking 6-7m true friday and around ~25m OW. 

Caveat: its tough to be accurate on small preview movies. Small changes have big impact. Say over performance in Canada can take in few hundred K more. 

Yikes. This is awful.

$6M would need very good walkups.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Excuses. Take the L Wizard.

 

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sacto is Potter land. MiniTC2 doing well in West.

Guess, spoke too soon. Walkups are meh.

Apologies, Dark lord @Porthos