The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[JonathanMB]

What's Boys in the Boat looking like? I looked at my local showtimes for that and they're like, packed, even the MTC2 in my area that's usually not a presale-heavy theater outside of the big event movies.

[filmlover]

20 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

What's Boys in the Boat looking like? I looked at my local showtimes for that and they're like, packed, even the MTC2 in my area that's usually not a presale-heavy theater outside of the big event movies.

It's absolutely packed all afternoon near me and in fairly big auditoriums too. Should at least do $1.5M, maybe $2M based on that. FYI Ferrari is selling great as well so maybe it too can hit whatever its high end for today is.

[DAJK]

Merry Christmas to the entire tracking team, whether you are one of the main contributors, an occasional contributor, or a reader. Today will be exciting, but I hope everyone takes the time to spend with family/friends/loved ones. You all deserve it ❤️

[Unfitclock]

@filmlover looks like more than just 2 million 

[M37]

41 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

What's Boys in the Boat looking like? I looked at my local showtimes for that and they're like, packed, even the MTC2 in my area that's usually not a presale-heavy theater outside of the big event movies.

The first available seat at my nearest local is not until 7pm, and in the front row (granted they have smaller auditoriums)

 

As of T-3

On 12/23/2023 at 12:50 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Boys in the Boat - 27701/165297 321894.55 1827 shows

A standard +120% or so finish would be over 60K, maybe pushing up over $4M for Xmas day (as this is a film that should play well outside of MTC1), plus whatever Xmas Eve previews made. Seems to me like at least $3M, maybe $4M+, not ruling out making a run for $5M (but may not have enough seats or is more pre-sale heavy because of the holiday and/or older audience)

 

Do think this is a title that is benefiting from lack of options for dads (and Ferrari as well, but seems to be the second choice)

[abracadabra1998]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

The first available seat at my nearest local is not until 7pm, and in the front row (granted they have smaller auditoriums)

 

As of T-3

A standard +120% or so finish would be over 60K, maybe pushing up over $4M for Xmas day (as this is a film that should play well outside of MTC1), plus whatever Xmas Eve previews made. Seems to me like at least $3M, maybe $4M+, not ruling out making a run for $5M (but may not have enough seats or is more pre-sale heavy because of the holiday and/or older audience)

 

Do think this is a title that is benefiting from lack of options for dads (and Ferrari as well, but seems to be the second choice)

Obviously running hotter in Minneapolis than elsewhere (pre-sales at around half of the color purple), but do think it will underindex at MTC1, many many seats sold all over

[joaqs]

Prayers up for Ferrari and Neon...

[M37]

26 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Obviously running hotter in Minneapolis than elsewhere (pre-sales at around half of the color purple), but do think it will underindex at MTC1, many many seats sold all over

Definitely feels to me to be in Indiana Jones/TGM demo territory, which overindex in Midwest et all, not as reliant on big MTCs 

 

And Deadline just reported a $1.74M Xmas eve preview ($656K for Ferrari), so it’s definitely hitting $5M total, could give Migration and/or Aquaman a run for the 4th/3rd spot (again, if it has the seats in a now crowded market)

 

My local also added a more shows for it 

[TheFlatLannister]

The Color Purple is having pretty good walkups right now: around an 8% increase from yesterday. Considering capacity constraints, that's pretty good. O/U $20M seems likely, though I'm still thinking it will be around $18M +/- $1M

 

As for Boys in the Boat: 989 seats sold 

so around ~$3.3M pure Christmas day gross. So that gets me exactly to $5M using deadlines $1.7M Christmas eve number 

 

*used anyone but you as comp for proximity purposes* 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, JonathanMB said:

What's Boys in the Boat looking like? I looked at my local showtimes for that and they're like, packed, even the MTC2 in my area that's usually not a presale-heavy theater outside of the big event movies.

I had it at $5M+ from last few weeks. Presales are strong lets see how walkups go.

 

In my tracking sample it is outselling Color Purple in daily pace for last couple of days. Overall sales are more than half. I am obviously over indexing for it

Edited December 25, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[crazymoviekid]

On 12/24/2023 at 11:46 PM, crazymoviekid said:

 

FINAL 2 Local NJ Theaters Christmas Day T-0:

 

The Color Purple - 1358 (17)
Wonka - 616 (13)
AQM 2 - 166 (10)
Ferrari - 331 (9)
Migration - 242 (12)
The Iron Claw - 126 (9)
Poor Things - 125 (8)
Boys in the Boat - 304 (9)
Anyone But You -  49 (9)

 

Color Purple broke 1,000 sales AND added more morning showtimes.  Everything had good last minute surges, especially Aquaman, but can't save it from drowning. Anyone But You is still the dud left behind.

 

Seems like there were a few people here worried about sales for tomorrow.  Counted my two local theaters post-CD

 

2 Local NJ Theaters Boxing Day T-0:

 

The Color Purple - 595 (15)

Wonka - 318 (14)

AQM 2 - 83 (9)

Ferrari - 65 (9)

Migration - 141 (12)

The Iron Claw - 60 (9)

Poor Things - 27 (8)

Boys in the Boat - 130 (9)

Anyone But You - 49 (10)

 

As you'd expect, TCP has a pretty big drop, but still very much above everything else. Wonka has a sub-50% drop. Ferrari's the biggest casualty. Anyone But You has the SAME sales. Watch out. 

 

Also, there is a lot more room for walk-ups today. 

[M37]

7 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Anyone But You has the SAME sales. Watch out. 

Pitch Perfect 3, with same calendar, had a big Xmas eve drop, a weaker Xmas (relative to Sat), but was then one of only two top 10 films to increase on 12/26. ABY seems to following similar path 

[JonathanMB]

29 minutes ago, M37 said:

Pitch Perfect 3, with same calendar, had a big Xmas eve drop, a weaker Xmas (relative to Sat), but was then one of only two top 10 films to increase on 12/26. ABY seems to following similar path 

 

I saw Anyone But You opening night and the audience was majority female friend groups with a few couples, so this tracks that it would follow similar daily patterns to that. Hopefully it has better legs though.

[TwoMisfits]

So, TMobile $5 off Atom deal live...

 

Next $5 ALL-IN ticket deal will be for the Beekeeper (it's been awhile, but the deal is back for 2024).  I know nothing about the movie, so I'm not gonna say how much it can help...but every little bit...

[vafrow]

With Color Purple out, I thought I'd see what else I could consider for a track, and there's literally nothing available for advance sale right now.

 

Night Swim will be available later tonight, but the rest of the advance sale section is things like live broadcasts of plays by the National Theatre, and one Chinese film playing in one theatre downtown Toronto next month.

 

We're truly at the dead time of the year.

 

We really don't have anything truly interesting from an advance sale perspective until Dune.

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, TMobile $5 off Atom deal live...

 

Next $5 ALL-IN ticket deal will be for the Beekeeper (it's been awhile, but the deal is back for 2024).  I know nothing about the movie, so I'm not gonna say how much it can help...but every little bit...

It's a mediocre-looking Jason Statham action vehicle that doesn't appear to be anywhere nearly as fun or as ridiculous as the title + star combo would imply. Expect a quick trip to getting lost among the options of whatever streaming service gets it.

[Porthos]

On 12/23/2023 at 3:59 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Color Purple (T-2):

 

Average (no adjustments): $18.38 Million

 

On 12/24/2023 at 3:11 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Put me down for $18M OD +/- $1M

 

Quote

DEC 26 AM UPDATE: Warner Bros –as mostly expected– wound up owning Christmas with its trifecta of Aquaman 2, Wonka and The Color Purple respectively in the top three spots. Speaking of The Color Purple, it came up big — much bigger than expected on its first day with an estimated $18.15M

 

It might be "right for wrong reasons" since, per Jat, about 1m to 2m of private shows were rolled into TCP, but a Win is a Win!

 

CONGRATS TO YOU BOTH!!!

Edited December 26, 2023 by Porthos

[DAJK]

Boys in the Boat, Ferrari, and TCP are all increasing it total ticket sales today from yesterday. That being said, Tuesday discounts means that ATP is much much lower. 
 

If I had to extrapolate from very early numbers, I’d guess 9-10 for TCP, 3.5 for Boat, and 1.5 for Ferrari. 

[abracadabra1998]

19 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

It might be "right for wrong reasons" since, per Jat, about 1m to 2m of private shows were rolled into TCP, but a Win is a Win!

 

CONGRATS TO YOU BOTH!!!

😃😃 thank you, what a great Christmas present! (Huge asterisks but like you said, a win is a win hehe)

 

(Jokes aside, this might have been the funnest one that I have tracked. I remember at T-56 being surprised that it was selling so much right away! Definitely a huge surprise right away and I remember being relieved when you and @TheFlatLannister were also seeing large numbers, I felt crazy there for a little while!)

[cannastop]

Will you guys do comps for Soul, Turning Red, and Luca?

I wonder what comps you could use...