The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[leoh]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

I never understood the rather huge predictions for Kung Fu Panda 4. The franchise seemed like it would explode after the first one broke out in 2008 and then it just...never did for whatever reason. Those deflating and uneventful numbers would explain the increasingly lengthy gaps between the sequels (3 years between 1 and 2, 5 years between 2 and 3, 8 years between 3 and 4).

@Shawn Robbins is predicting between 30M and 39M, this is very much possible. Keep in mind usually animations aren’t front loaded, many parents let to buy tickets closer to the release date. Of course, there’re always exceptions, but most of animations tend to have a lazy start.

 

Regarding domestic box office, Kung Fu Panda has always got around 150M to 200M range. Let’s see how much marketing it’ll get, but with a good marketing campaign it’s very much possible to say it can keep the 150M to 200M range. And if I’m not mistaken it’ll be the only animation out in March.

Edited February 10 by leoh

[ViewerAnon]

Fun fact: every KUNG FU PANDA movie has opened lower than the previous movie. Given the last one opened to $41 million and there's been an eight year gap I'd be surprised if it nudged that far over $30 million OW.

[misterpepp]

2 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

I was about to come here to bitch about Lisa Frankenstein’s Thursday numbers not being reported so reading this instead was a pleasant breath of fresh air  

 

Thanks for all you do @vafrow!

 

DL just said Lisa Frankenstein's Thursday was ~$700k 

 

(I also second the thanks for @vafrow, I don't track here but I always appreciate those who go out of their way to post something helpful for others!)

Edited February 10 by misterpepp

[leoh]

24 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
468	1040	91798	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

193

 

COMPS

T-27

 

(0.974x) of Trolls 3 $1.27M

 

It's doing crazy good in Miami and poor in Orlando🤔

I mean tracking Florida as a whole and not only Orlando is such a good idea you had. Wider tracking tends to surfer less with local anomalies 

Edited February 10 by leoh

[Poseidon]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Not impressed with Kung Fu panda at all. Was expecting a breakout but nothing so far

 

We were expecting a breakout for part 2 and that one never happened, despite the first one being a pretty nice and charming movie. So why would it break out, when the series dropped from movie to movie? 

 

But Dreamworks is a quite weird case overall.

How to train your Dragon didn't break out. Madagascar topped the franchise with the worst part, while the second even dropped from the first.

Edited February 10 by Poseidon

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/7/2024 at 6:17 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Average: $770k

 

Pretty terrible last couple of days sadly, The Invitation comp gives me a little bit of optimism but gonna put my final prediction at $0.8 Million, +/- 0.2.

 

12 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

 

DL just said Lisa Frankenstein's Thursday was ~$700k 

 

(I also second the thanks for @vafrow, I don't track here but I always appreciate those who go out of their way to post something helpful for others!)

 

 

My hero! That mean a second good weekend for me in a row, starting to finally get a decent assortment of comps  feels good ngl 

[TheFlatLannister]

21 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

 

We were expecting a breakout for part 2 and that one never happened, despite the first one being a pretty nice and charming movie. So why would it break out, when the series dropped from movie to movie? 

 

But Dreamworks is a quite weird case overall.

How to train your Dragon didn't break out. Madagascar topped the franchise with the worst part, while the second even dropped from the first.

I was banking on Gen Z coming out hard for this one (It's been nearly 8 years since Kung Fu panda 3 came out), so I expected a stronger start to presales. Still not worried, like Keyser said we are still 4 weeks out

[keysersoze123]

On 2/8/2024 at 8:20 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early shows(2/25) - 23256/55671 468940.24 182 shows

Previews - 44055/514277 882665.33 2572 shows

Friday - 36955/789352 743009.47 3976 shows

Saturday - 37601/834499 724249.79 4216 shows

 

I think we have to wait until 15th for next leg of the presales. FYI this is as of late afternoon yesterday. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early shows(2/25) - 24032/55706 483477.78 182 shows

Previews - 46204/515493 924712.24 2573 shows

Friday - 40445/794405 810151.19 4002 shows

Saturday - 40901/836536 786525.97 4218 shows

 

 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 48163/449574 726936.89 2874 shows +7428

Thursday - 6058/319514 93782.44 1959 shows

Friday - 7930/384607 121567.90 2296 shows +1000

 

@charlie Jatinder Thursday is even lower. But not by as much as what I thought. But walkups have to be better on friday than thursday for sure.

 

On VD I think it can get to 75K+ by Sunday and Probably close to 120K by end of presales. Walkups could get it to 160-170K. Assuming it skews MTC1 heavily its probably looking 8-8.5m. Let us see how the presales go rest of its run.

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 55415/453958 836857.61 2912 shows +7252

Friday - 8832/384880 135658.22 2296 shows +902

 

Weird the pace went down a bit today. May be the reviews actually boosted the number yesterday or bad reviews brought the pace down today. Still solid number overall for VD. 

[elhassane31]

3 hours ago, ViewerAnon said:

Fun fact: every KUNG FU PANDA movie has opened lower than the previous movie. Given the last one opened to $41 million and there's been an eight year gap I'd be surprised if it nudged that far over $30 million OW.

Maybe things could be turned around if the movie has good word of mouth. Have you heard anything about the quality of the movie?

[charlie Jatinder]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 55415/453958 836857.61 2912 shows +7252

Friday - 8832/384880 135658.22 2296 shows +902

 

Weird the pace went down a bit today. May be the reviews actually boosted the number yesterday or bad reviews brought the pace down today. Still solid number overall for VD. 

Yeah, but the pace is still way too high.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah, but the pace is still way too high.

Its just Color Purple on a smaller scale. ATP is better than CP for sure. 

 

I forgot to post but at last got some MTC2 data for Marley earlier today.

 

Bob Marley MTC2 VD - 36115/210138 405891.20 1517 shows

 

This is also solid and show count should go up quite a bit as well. 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Madame Web MTC1

VD - 22186/601219 370134.30 2961 shows +2414

Friday - 8655/586424 147272.49 2733 shows +557

 

1st my VD number was incorrect yesterday. It was from the day before. I think VD wise its looking at 4m ish OD. But post that the holds wont be good.

 

 

Madame Web MTC1

VD - 24973/602338 414877.6 2969 shows +2787

Friday - 9324/586940 158712.20 2735 shows +669

 

Interesting this movie increased today compared to yesterday's pace 🙂

[keysersoze123]

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1 Previews - 2938/304300 42305.26 1991 shows

 

I dont think even the subs are that interested considering how empty things are. Let us look at it like say a week later to see if dreamworks can build some hype. Otherwise its going to be ugly for this movie. Meh ATP as its not going to have much of a PLF release coming a week after Dune 2. They should have released this next week or couple of weeks later. 

[JustLurking]

I do think there was potential for KFP as big trailer views showed but they kind of squandered it. Trailer was weak and looked cheap so not surprised start of presales is reflecting that.

Edited February 10 by JustLurking

[BadOlCatSylvester]

44 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I do think there was potential for KFP as big trailer views showed but they kind of squandered it. Trailer was weak and looked cheap so not surprised start of presales is reflecting that.

I'm glad not to be alone on this. It looks bland as all hell and doesn't bring anything new to the table like Puss 2 did.

2 hours ago, elhassane31 said:

Maybe things could be turned around if the movie has good word of mouth. Have you heard anything about the quality of the movie?

He announced on Twitter recently that he's out of the scooperbro game, so he likely won't respond to this. Very unfortunate as he was the only likeable and the most reliable one of the lot. I think the initial Scream 6 hoax took a toll on him.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22888	24716	1828	7.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

55

 

T-21 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

Batman	63.45		2406	2881		0/248	29316/32197	8.95%		11757	15.55%		15.49m
TGM	79.51		390	2299		0/257	33923/36222	6.35%		11474	15.93%		15.31m
JWD	97.23		71	1880		0/184	22927/24807	7.58%		2915	62.71%		17.50m
Thor 4	34.55		231	5291		0/228	26309/31600	16.74%		16962	10.78%		10.02m
BP2	29.98		150	6098		1/294	30924/37022	16.47%		16800	10.88%		8.39m
Ava 2	90.05		169	2030		0/142	19308/21338	9.51%		8986	20.34%		15.31m
AM3	44.94		104	4068		0/235	28488/32556	12.50%		10475	17.45%		7.86m
GOTG3	58.83		93	3107		0/206	26559/29666	10.47%		10750	17.00%		10.30m
Fast X	232.87		5	785		0/182	26937/27722	2.83%		4122	44.35%		17.46m
Indy 5	196.14		37	932		0/124	18589/19521	4.77%		4767	38.35%		14.12m
Oppy	212.56		24	860		0/53	7390/8250	10.42%		10750	17.00%		22.32m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       491/8153  [6.02% sold]
Matinee:    59/2762  [2.14% | 3.23% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:         616/814  [75.68% sold] [+0 tickets]
Thr:    1212/23902  [5.07% sold] [+55 tickets]
PLF:     1543/9813  [15.72% | 84.41% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Couple of notes. 

 

That DBOX showing I mentioned last night is still sold out, so if it is an error, it's one that hasn't been caught yet.  But, kinda suspect it's legit.

 

Secondly, this was the first day of full sales for The Batman, so I threw it in the hopper, even though the comp will be coming down PDQ.  Speaking of The Batman, toying with adding a separate EA IMAX exclusive comp block for it and Dune: Part Two.  For those who don't recall, The Batman had two separate preview slots:  An IMAX exclusive Tuesday and then an All PLFs Welcome Wednesday.  It'll take a bit of trawling through the forum's old thread for me to compile the data, as the history for The Batman spreadsheet was on an older computer that I don't have easy access to.  But having an honest to goodness (near) 100% identical comp is nearly too tempting for me to pass up.  Just have to set aside the time to compile the dailies for the rest of the run.

 

Not much else to add.  Now it's just Waiting For Godot Goodell.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22847	24716	1869	7.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-20 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	57.77		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		11757	15.90%		14.11m
TGM	71.75		306	2605		0/257	33617/36222	7.19%		11474	16.29%		13.82m
JWD	94.35		101	1981		0/184	22826/24807	7.99%		2915	64.12%		16.98m
Thor 4	33.83		234	5525		0/228	26075/31600	17.48%		16962	11.02%		9.81m
BP2	30.09		114	6212		1/294	30810/37022	16.78%		16800	11.13%		8.42m
Ava 2	87.83		98	2128		0/142	19210/21338	9.97%		8986	20.80%		14.93m
Wick 4	257.79		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	34.31%		22.94m
AM3	45.24		63	4131		0/235	28425/32556	12.69%		10475	17.84%		7.92m
GOTG3	58.72		76	3183		0/206	26483/29666	10.73%		10750	17.39%		10.28m
Fast X	233.63		15	800		0/182	26910/27710	2.89%		4122	45.34%		17.52m
Indy 5	191.69		43	975		0/124	18546/19521	4.99%		4767	39.21%		13.80m
Oppy	212.87		18	878		0/53	7372/8250	10.64%		10750	17.39%		22.35m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      508/8153  [6.23% sold]
Matinee:    67/2762  [2.43% | 3.58% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:           617/814  [75.80% sold] [+1 tickets]
Thr:    1252/23902  [5.24% sold] [+40 tickets]
PLF:      1569/9813  [15.99% | 83.95% of all tickets sold]

[leoh]

 

Now it’s official Kung Fu Panda 4 OW will take over Dolby Cinema halls.

I’m really surprised because this means that, in its second weekend, Dune will have 150-200 less PLFs halls.
 

Theaters seem to have really good expectations for KFP 4. 

 

 

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/C3JIkEZsrc6/?igsh=MWh5OTkycWU0cngyMA==

Edited February 10 by leoh

[vafrow]

On 2/9/2024 at 4:17 AM, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-21 Thursday previews and T-17 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 314

New Sales: 10

Growth: 3.3%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 17.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 247/9

Late Evening: 60/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 65/7

IMAX: 179/4

VIP: 62/5

4dx: 8/2

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 379

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 6

Growth: 1.6%

 

A little slower today, so not much to comment on specifically on today.

 

Some Dune thoughts that I've debated posting, but, I don't feel too confident in any predictions to make a separate post, so I'm tacking on here.

 

I'm leaning towards the lower estimates as I find we're waiting on a breakout that doesn't appear to be coming. Yes, it's early, but, the percentage of IMAX sales in my sample has remained constant for previews, at around mid 50%. Throw in the EA shows, then total of those and it's about 80% of sales.

 

Now, it's early for general audiences to get on board and all of that, but I feel we should be seeing something.

 

I also find this narrative of whether this will attract audiences outside it's core base to be similar to the dialogue around D&D last year. Good, charismatic cast, content that could appeal to general audiences etc. But, ultimately, despite a lot of marketing, it wasn't successful at crossing over enough.

 

I hope I'm wrong. I chose to track this over a 30+ day manual track because I hoped it would be interesting, and if this is just a slow and predictable finish, it'll be disappointing.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-20 Thursday previews and T-16 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 326

New Sales: 12

Growth: 3.8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 18.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 254/9

Late Evening: 65/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 67/7

IMAX: 188/4

VIP: 63/5

4dx: 8/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.150 of Marvels for $7.6M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 380

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 1

Growth: 0.3%

 

Slow growth, but, I finally have a comp. 

 

[vafrow]

On 2/9/2024 at 4:25 AM, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-7

 

Previews

Total Sales: 196

New Sales: 47

Growth: 32%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 9.8

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/2

Late Afternoon: 9/4

Early Evening: 139/7

Late Evening: 48/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 105/7

IMAX: 45/6

VIP: 46/5

Regular: 0/2

 

Comps

1.798x Aquaman 2 for $8.1M

0.860x HG:BoSS for $4.9M

0.520x of The Marvels for $3.4M

Avg: $5.5M

 

 

It continues to grow. With One Love doing really well here as well, I'm wondering if it's a case where there's just a stronger Valentine's Day demand up here. Daily growth is in the 25% range for the last few days, and it's hard to see that momentum stopping soon.

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-5

 

Previews

Total Sales: 232

New Sales: 36

Growth: 18%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.6

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/2

Late Afternoon: 11/4

Early Evening: 169/7

Late Evening: 52/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 116/7

IMAX: 48/6

VIP: 66/5

Regular: 2/2

 

Comps

1.917x Aquaman 2 for $8.6M

0.932x HG:BoSS for $5.4M

0.589x of The Marvels for $3.9M

Avg: $6.0M

 

A couple of days ago, I thought this might land at $6.0M as it's final number. We're there at T-5.

 

Given other markets aren't showing this type of performance, my best theory is that Valentine's Day is just a stronger day up here for whatever reason. I believe Jat has mentioned before that weekdays are generally stronger in Canada, and that can be an influence.