The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

When are presales for Ghostbusters and Godzilla starting? its interesting that both these movies are going for shorter presales cycle.

[dallas]

Not sure if this belongs here. I'll delete if it doesn't. 

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited February 27 by kayumanggi

[TinaDuraes]

7 hours ago, M37 said:

Do you consider Wonka or Venom 2 to be Blockbusters? Because that’s about the domestic total Dune II is on track to have

 

Personally, would reserve the “blockbuster” designation for the few $300M+ plus titles each year, and as of now, between preview tracking and expected IM and March legs, getting to that level would take a significant outlier result 

How are two movies that grossed over half a billion not blockbusters?

[Bob Train]

17 minutes ago, dallas said:

Not sure if this belongs here. I'll delete if it doesn't. 

Belongs here

 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

32 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

When are presales for Ghostbusters and Godzilla starting? its interesting that both these movies are going for shorter presales cycle.

I think pepper said that Ghostbusters starts on the 29th. Don’t recall anything about Godzilla though.

[dallas]

If Deadline is reporting $170M, then $200M is the floor

/s

[vafrow]

44 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

When are presales for Ghostbusters and Godzilla starting? its interesting that both these movies are going for shorter presales cycle.

 

I think Sony only had Madame Web up from T-17 or so. If they're approaching GB:FE the same way, that only puts us at next week. I'm hoping they hold off a few days at least so it's not overlapping with Dune.

 

 

[cooldude97]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

When are presales for Ghostbusters and Godzilla starting? its interesting that both these movies are going for shorter presales cycle.

GxK will probably be next week since marketing will be in full force as that will be legendary's main focus after Dune comes out this week

[Porthos]

FWIW, GBA had a fairly standard (if on the slightly short side) 18 day pre-sale window, so 22 is right around that same ballpark.

 

(consider this a reminder/commentary that GA-skewing films, even ones with a built in fanbase, really don't need to be on sale for 27+ days)

Edited February 27 by Porthos

[leoh]

According to Deadline, Warner Bros. is projecting Dune 2 to hit 65M+ in its OW.

 

Theaters, however, believe it can get closer to 80M.

 

Worldwide Dune 2 will hit 85M-90M.

 

Then Dune can get between 150M and 170M at ww box office OW.

 

So with 4x multiplier (optimistic for sequels) this may get between 600M and 680M at ww box office. This would be an impressive 50-70% jump from Dune (2021).

 

https://deadline.com/2024/02/dune-part-two-box-office-worldwide-projection-1235839654/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 27 by leoh

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

When are presales for Ghostbusters and Godzilla starting? its interesting that both these movies are going for shorter presales cycle.

Ghostbusters presales begins this Thursday . For godzilla i don't know but maybe next week or the week after

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1297	1353	95.86%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

753

2092

35.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

660

2137

30.88%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3643	478	21212	17.17%	13	110

 

1.182

Oppenheimer T-3

12.41M

0.896	Guardians T-3	15.69M
0.743	Ant-Man 3 T-3	13.01M
0.727	Avatar 2 T-3	12.35M
0.505	Thor L&T T-3	14.65M
0.337	Doctor Strange 2 T-3	12.13M
0.903	Batman T-3*	19.50M
2.064	Dune Part 1 T-3	10.53M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

 

Big jump in sales, over double yesterday's sales.

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1297	1353	95.86%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

816

2887

28.26%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

707

2507

28.20%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4073	410	23597	17.26%	13	140

 

1.133	Oppenheimer T-2	11.90M
0.903	Guardians T-2	15.81M
0.771	Ant-Man 3 T-2	13.49M
0.759	Avatar 2 T-2	12.90M
0.513	Thor L&T T-2	14.88M
0.343	Doctor Strange 2 T-2	12.35M
0.859	Batman T-2*	18.56M
1.992	Dune Part 1 T-2	10.16M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

 

Drop from yesterday. Definitely saw a boost yesterday due to strong WoM from EA showings. Still a good result today, but @M37 was probably right in saying that it wasn't the start of a new trajectory (at least here...)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-3 Thursday

277 Showings

13215

+942

35077

ATP:

17.64

0.661	Barbie T-3	14.74M
1.680	Oppenheimer T-3	17.64M

0.964	Guardians T-3	16.87M
1.513	Avatar T-3	25.73M
0.741	Thor L&T T-3	21.49M
0.570	Doctor Strange 2 T-3	20.52M
0.946	Batman T-3*	16.66M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-4 Friday

409 Showings

15703

+1300

51143

ATP:

17.23

0.679	Barbie T-4	32.72M
1.520	Oppenheimer T-4	34.22M

1.172	Guardians T-4	35.86M
1.390	Avatar T-4	50.33M
1.001	Thor L&T T-4	40.60M
0.709	Doctor Strange 2 T-4	38.82M
1.030	Batman T-4	36.12M

 

T-5 Saturday

424 Showings

18377

+1482

52509

ATP:

16.80

0.768	Barbie T-5	36.72M
1.499	Oppenheimer T-5	39.80M

1.230	Guardians T-5	47.82M
1.494	Avatar T-5	66.21M
1.259	Thor L&T T-5	53.03M
0.781	Doctor Strange 2 T-5	45.13M
1.132	Batman T-5	48.97M

 

T-6 Sunday

376 Showings

12865

+1163

46609

ATP:

16.79

0.698	Barbie T-6	30.49M
1.471	Oppenheimer T-6	34.10M

1.465	Guardians T-6	46.05M
1.553	Avatar T-6	56.79M
1.454	Thor L&T T-6	47.26M
0.940	Doctor Strange 2 T-6	36.55M
1.545	Batman T-6	52.73M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-2 Thursday

339 Showings

14843

+1628

40629

ATP:

17.53

0.642	Barbie T-2	14.31M
1.737	Oppenheimer T-2	18.24M

0.966	Guardians T-2	16.90M
1.580	Avatar T-2	26.87M
0.778	Thor L&T T-2	22.56M
0.578	Doctor Strange 2 T-2	20.80M
0.928	Batman T-2*	16.33M
2.929	Dune Part 1 T-2	14.94M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-3 Friday

523 Showings

18233

+2530

62056

ATP:

17.12

0.646	Barbie T-3	31.12M
1.472	Oppenheimer T-3	33.14M

1.173	Guardians T-3	35.90M
1.467	Avatar T-3	53.12M
1.054	Thor L&T T-3	42.76M
0.705	Doctor Strange 2 T-3	38.57M
0.977	Batman T-3	34.28M
2.620	Dune Part 1 T-3	32.48M

 

T-4 Saturday

542 Showings

21165

+2788

64844

ATP:

16.70

0.742	Barbie T-4	35.46M
1.457	Oppenheimer T-4	38.69M

1.234	Guardians T-4	47.98M
1.596	Avatar T-4	70.77M
1.288	Thor L&T T-4	54.23M
0.772	Doctor Strange 2 T-4	44.64M
1.081	Batman T-4	46.78M
3.111	Dune Part 1 T-4	42.68M

 

T-5 Sunday

484 Showings

14715

+1850

58471

ATP:

16.72

0.666	Barbie T-5	29.10M
1.404	Oppenheimer T-5	32.56M

1.468	Guardians T-5	46.15M
1.684	Avatar T-5	61.57M
1.450	Thor L&T T-5	47.14M
0.927	Doctor Strange 2 T-5	36.04M
1.432	Batman T-5	48.90M
3.127	Dune Part 1 T-5	30.58M

 

Huge jump here at Drafthouse, but it has been overperforming the whole time so it should be looked at as an outlier.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-3 Thursday

109 Showings

2784

+458

18384

0.845

Oppenheimer T-3

8.87M

 

T-4 Friday

167 Showings

4312

+646

28579

0.917

Oppenheimer T-4

20.65M

 

T-5 Saturday

172 Showings

4477

+851

29588

1.205

Oppenheimer T-5

31.64M

 

T-6 Sunday

177 Showings

2130

+450

29222

1.043

Oppenheimer T-6

24.19M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-2 Thursday

149 Showings

3263

+479

22257

0.886

Oppenheimer T-2

9.30M

 

T-3 Friday

280 Showings

5222

+910

40730

0.874

Oppenheimer T-3

19.69M

 

T-4 Saturday

294 Showings

5364

+887

42634

1.118

Oppenheimer T-4

29.35M

 

T-5 Sunday

279 Showings

2700

+570

40550

0.979

Oppenheimer T-5

22.70M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
617	8534	122580	7.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

809

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

26

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

3355

*359 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.073x) of Oppenheimer $11.30M 

(0.558x) of ATSV $9.68M 

(0.436x) of Barbie $9.20M 

(2.403x) of Aquaman 2 $10.81M 

 

Comps average: $10.25M

 

Really solid growth in Florida and Orlando. Still no signs of it "exploding" though. It increased slightly again, against Oppenheimer. Does look like $10M+ is happening. 

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
702	10061	142193	7.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1527

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

85

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

3677

*322 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(1.055x) of Oppenheimer $11.07M 

(0.543x) of ATSV $9.43M 

(2.294x) of Aquaman 2 $10.32M 

 

Comps average: $10.27M

 

Ridiculous jump in showings in Florida. Overall ok growth in Orlando, definitely down from yesterday's bump. Dropped Barbie for obvious reasons. Decreased against all comps, but still holding steady at ~$10.3M

[ando]

Dune: Part Two T-2

 

Toronto Scotiabank (IMAX only)

 

4340/6120 tickets sold (+465 since T-5) 71% sold out

 

Thu- 854

Fri- 1120

Sat- 1225

Sun- 1141

 

Weekdays looking nice with a few days still to grow

 

Mon- 570

Tues- 690

[charlie Jatinder]

From a preliminary run of MiniTC2, still seems higher than last week averages but not the crazy day it had yesterday. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/26/2024 at 6:02 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	106	420	3563	19132	18.62

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3033	285	85.12
MTC1:		1734	213	48.67
Marcus:		378	45	10.61
Alamo:		409	10	11.48
Other chains:		1042	152	29.25

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.08x Oppy: $11.33 Million

2.3x The Marvels: $15.19 Million

1.65x MI7 (w/ EA): $14.87 Million

0.69x Barbie (switching to THU): $14.73 Million

 

Average: $14.03 Million

 

For sure not a bad update, kept pace with MI7, but still lost ground to Oppy and not seeing a huge bump like others seem to be seeing (but I am running ahead of others anyway). Thought I would give some context to how PLF-heavy this is; here are the % of tix solds that are PLF at T-3 for some other movies:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom- 75%

Hunger Games BoSS- 63%

The Marvels- 69%

Five Nights at Freddy's- 17% (lol)

 

Anyways, just wanted to illustrate that this is the heaviest PLF track I've had by far. Like @Porthos said, starting to see a bit of movement in non-PLF screens and theaters, as well as finally some expansions to accomodate for demand (Alamo, for example, is in dire need of adding more screens), which will surely help. We shall see how much

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	172	499	4062	26909	15.1

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3401	368	83.73
MTC1:		1854	120	45.64
Marcus:		473	95	11.64
Alamo:		431	22	10.61
Other chains:		1304	262	32.1

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.05x Oppy: $11.05 Million

2.25x The Marvels: $14.87 Million

1.6x MI7 (w/ EA): $14.38 Million

0.66x Barbie (THU): $14 Million

 

Average: $13.58 Million

 

Dropped against all comps, but honestly the numbers in non-MTC1 chains were not bad, the MTC1 update was just terrible. A shit ton of new showings so I am interested to see tomorrow if these non-PLF screening numbers finally start rising

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

When are presales for Ghostbusters and Godzilla starting? its interesting that both these movies are going for shorter presales cycle.

Last I heard for GB2 was Feb 26th, which is gone. G*K on March 5th.

 

Edit: GB2 is 29th now.

Edited February 28 by charlie Jatinder