The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-2 Thursday

149 Showings

3263

+479

22257

0.886

Oppenheimer T-2

9.30M

 

T-3 Friday

280 Showings

5222

+910

40730

0.874

Oppenheimer T-3

19.69M

 

T-4 Saturday

294 Showings

5364

+887

42634

1.118

Oppenheimer T-4

29.35M

 

T-5 Sunday

279 Showings

2700

+570

40550

0.979

Oppenheimer T-5

22.70M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-1 Thursday

156 Showings

3827

+564

23018

0.775

Oppenheimer T-1

8.14M

 

T-2 Friday

301 Showings

6327

+1105

42749

0.853

Oppenheimer T-2

19.21M

 

T-3 Saturday

315 Showings

6434

+1070

44813

1.084

Oppenheimer T-3

28.47M

 

T-4 Sunday

301 Showings

3314

+614

42784

0.910

Oppenheimer T-4

21.10M

[rehpyc]

On 2/26/2024 at 10:33 PM, rehpyc said:

 

 

I guess I'm really just here to confirm what the other great trackers have indicated.. current trajectories of each of the mentioned comps are looking around a 10M average (excluding EA) should their current growth patterns remain. Avatar, Dune, and Oppenheimer are particularly flat and likely the best indicators, indicating a range about 9-10M, with Oppenheimer edging that lower end.

 

Dune 2 T-7 to T-4 (excluding EA)

Oppenheimer: 9.65, 9.46, 9.28, 9.09

Avatar 2: 9.60, 9.59, 9.61, 9.52

Dune 1: 10.13, 10.06, 10.01, 10.02

Jurassic World 😧 15.26, 14.82, 14.46, 13.85

Barbie: 16.70, 15.63, 14.77, 13.73

A bit late on providing an update on this from yesterday's sales, but I'm trying to stay on top of things as best I can for you all.

 

Dune 2 T-3 to T-2 (excluding EA)

Oppenheimer: 9.40, 9.38

Avatar 2: 10.22, 10.52

Dune 1: 10.34, 10.36

Jurassic World: apparently I deleted it?

Barbie: 13.28, 12.64

[Cmasterclay]

Godzilla x Kong has no hook at all and is coming out at the end of a busy month, I'm not as low as Shawn but I just don't see why it would do much more than King of the Monsters. The last one was the real megahit waiting to happen and they blew it on day and date streaming release before the fucking vaccine was even available.

[keysersoze123]

Xfinity members are given 2 free tickets to Panda 4. That is definitely a good way to boost the box office 🙂

[Porthos]

In defense of Monsterverse fans, as far as I am concerned, Godzilla vs Kong doesn't exist when it comes to box office tracking, since it was lit-er-a-ly the first major release* as theaters were re-opening/trying to figure out how to operate under very strict COVID guidelines.

* Okay was some scattered releases in the month before that, but GvK was pretty much the firing of the starters gun to the re-opening of theaters nationwide after TENET's false start.

 

AMC was open partially.  So was Cinemark.  Regal had a handful and was fairly behind both of the other majors, if memory serves.  All the other minors were scrambling trying their best to figure out how to implement social distance rules.

 

It is true that GvK "benefitted" from pent up demand and some folks wanting to get the fuck out of their house.  But let's be real here.  COVID hurt it far far more.  Had no previews.  Had severe capacity restraints.  Also had a skittish public.

 

Where GvK matters is how it was received by fans and the GA since it released.  As far as I can tell, from a limited glance, it was received better than KotM, though how much I couldn't say.

 

So, yes, there is room for guarded optimism for GxK.  There is also room for justified skepticism.  Just, for me at least, arguments surrounding the box office of GvK don't really mean all that much.

 

NB:  Gonna be annoying to try to remember to type an "x" instead of a "v" every time I want to talk about this upcoming movie.  On the other hand, at least there's a way to semi-quickly tell the two apart!

Edited February 28 by Porthos

[Maaatt]

2 hours ago, leoh said:

exactly.

And still, according to Deadline, Warner Bros itself is projecting it to get 65M+

 

https://deadline.com/2024/02/dune-part-two-box-office-worldwide-projection-1235839654/

 

 

 

 

I think you might be focusing too much on the Warner expectation relative to the rest of the data in that article (and another similar article in Variety). As both Deadline and Variety point out the WB’s number is decidedly conservative compared to the current expectations and thinking of exhibitors and others in the industry, which is not unusual for a studio to do (in fact its quite common), studios frequently underestimate or lowball their expected weekend box office (at least the number they are reporting/leaking to the media.. they very well could have internal numbers that better align with exhibitors & the professional trackers). Why do that? In part, they’re playing a game of expectation setting with the entertainment reporters that cover box office, trying to set expectations at a level they know they are likely to not just meet but jump through & thus hopefully generate headlines about “over-performance!” or  “exceeding expectations!” come Monday morning. 

 

This is especially the case in scenarios where expectations have risen in the weeks leading up to a release and the studio doesn’t want the media to get ahead of itself. Last year during the week of “Barbenheimer” you can find articles of WB projecting $75 million for Barbie and Universal sticking with $40 million for Oppenheimer even as by the start of that release week it was clear to most paying attention that both films would perform better then that. 

[leoh]

52 minutes ago, Porthos said:

In defense of Monsterverse fans, as far as I am concerned, Godzilla vs Kong doesn't exist when it comes to box office tracking, since it was lit-er-a-ly the first major release* as theaters were re-opening/trying to figure out how to operate under very strict COVID guidelines.

* Okay was some scattered releases in the month before that, but GvK was pretty much the firing of the starters gun to the re-opening of theaters nationwide after TENET's false start.

 

AMC was open partially.  So was Cinemark.  Regal had a handful and was fairly behind both of the other majors, if memory serves.  All the other minors were scrambling trying their best to figure out how to implement social distance rules.

 

It is true that GvK "benefitted" from pent up demand and some folks wanting to get the fuck out of their house.  But let's be real here.  COVID hurt it far far more.  Had no previews.  Had severe capacity restraints.  Also had a skittish public.

 

Where GvK matters is how it was received by fans and the GA since it released.  As far as I can tell, from a limited glance, it was received better than KotM, though how much I couldn't say.

 

So, yes, there is room for guarded optimism for GxK.  There is also room for justified skepticism.  Just, for me at least, arguments surrounding the box office of GvK don't really mean all that much.

 

NB:  Gonna be annoying to try to remember to type an "x" instead of a "v" every time I want to talk about this upcoming movie.  On the other hand, at least there's a way to semi-quickly tell the two apart!

well you can go back to monster-verse pre pandemic release, its 2019 movie barely crossed 100M, and there’s no pandemics to justify it. Monster-verse is a franchise in clear decline:

 

Godzilla (2014) 200M

Kong Skull island (2017) 168M

Godzilla King of Monsters (2019) 110M

Godzilla X Kong (2021) 100M

 

I’m not talking about you of course, but it is crazy that some people here are calling out @Shawn Robbins to argue that a dying franchise (in the US at least) like monster-verse should have a better projection. It’s like fighting off facts, monster-verse has been declining every single release in the US.

Edited February 29 by leoh

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/27/2024 at 8:33 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
702	10061	142193	7.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1527

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

85

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

3677

*322 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(1.055x) of Oppenheimer $11.07M 

(0.543x) of ATSV $9.43M 

(2.294x) of Aquaman 2 $10.32M 

 

Comps average: $10.27M

 

Ridiculous jump in showings in Florida. Overall ok growth in Orlando, definitely down from yesterday's bump. Dropped Barbie for obvious reasons. Decreased against all comps, but still holding steady at ~$10.3M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
727	11476	146907	7.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1415

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

4013

*336 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.996x) of Oppenheimer $10.45M 

(2.163x) of Aquaman $9.74M 

(0.484x) of ATSV $8.39M 

Comps average: $9.53M

 

Yeah, growth is just meh. There just hasn't been much of an acceleration. Show count is still going up. Oppenheimer has officially overtaken Dune 2 in overall sales. @M37 Don't think 5k seats sold is happening. Maybe 4.8k if things really pick up tomorrow. 

Edited February 29 by TheFlatLannister
Added the comps back per advise

[leoh]

26 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
727	11476	146907	7.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1415

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

25

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

4013

*336 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.996x) of Oppenheimer $10.45M 

 

Comps average: $10.45M

 

Yeah, growth is just meh. There just hasn't been much of an acceleration. Show count is still going up. Oppenheimer has officially overtaken Dune 2 in overall sales. @M37 Don't think 5k seats sold is happening. Maybe 4.8k if things really pick up tomorrow. 

 

NOTE: Dropped all other comps because they were at ~$8-9M 

Idk but maybe adding your previous comps would make you get a more accurate final figure. All things considered, Dune may actually fail the 10M mark this Thursday. Sunday shows got them 1.9M, so let’s see if WB announces previews box office at under 11.9M (meaning that Dune didn’t get 10M Thursday).

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 29 by leoh

[jeffthehat]

On 2/23/2024 at 12:32 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Dune: Part Two T-6

Sales	Seats	Shows
1691	28523	166

 

vs. the V-Day openers

 

Movie	Sales at T-6	Sales at T-1
Bob Marley	1432	3309
Madame Web	732	1680

 

Still ahead of One Love but that will change soon. Sales are also about 7x Argylle T-6

Indiana

Dune: Part Two T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
3041	36385	226

Comps 

0.92x Bob Marley: One Love (V-day) T-1 = $12.9m

1.81x Madame Web (V-day) T-1 = $10.9m

---

Just sharing what I got here. Comps are different genres and day of release so not reading into them much. 

[M37]

51 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Yeah, growth is just meh. There just hasn't been much of an acceleration. Show count is still going up. Oppenheimer has officially overtaken Dune 2 in overall sales. @M37 Don't think 5k seats sold is happening. Maybe 4.8k if things really pick up tomorrow. 

 

Yeah, that's bad, fell behind the Aquaman et all pace last two days, agree with your analysis.  Of the films for which I have collected your Orlando data, the +57% growth from T-7 to T-1 for Dune II is near the bottom of the list, chilling with the CBMs like GOTG3 and Flash (but not on Marvels level)

 

But maybe don't be so quick to throw out those other comps (especially Aquaman 2) , because I doubt we're going to see an Oppy-like +30% final day, and at ~4800 final sales (+20%), sub-$10M would be very much in play for your market

 

Now I've very curious to see the MTC1 update later tonight...

[von Kenni]

14 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Comp with Dune 1

THU

T-7: 184%
-4: 182%

-3: 188%
-2: 187% ($9.53M, inf adj $10M)

FRI

T-7: 188%
-4: 187%
-3: 190%
-2: 188% ($23.3M, inf adj $25M)
 

Dune 1 had poor walkups on final day, Dune 2 has potential to improve there a bit, unless ofc it repeats as well
 

 

*** UPDATED VERSION COMING UP AS A SEPARATE POST WITH UPDATED ATPs ***

 

Use this only to play with numbers.

 

Decided to build some estimates based on Charlie's MTC comps with Dune 1. We'll know much more later today when we get the T-1 MTC numbers but based on the above I created the tables below. THU Dune 2/Dune 1 ratio seems to be heading a bit down again after the EA bump on Monday. The first table estimates the THU previews (excl. EA) from the worst case of finishing 182% compared to Dune 1 and the best case holding at 187% at the latest by beating the poor walkups of Dune 1 on T-0. That should be a reasonable range with current data.

 

The bigger question is what is the ATP difference between Dune 1 and 2?

 

Month-to-month inflation has risen around 12% since Dune 1 opened as of now. That doesn't mean that the average movie ticket price has risen exactly the same and quick googling points to some lower numbers but it can be still 10%. Charlie used a very conservative number of 5% if I'm right (187%*5.1*1.05~$10M Thu previews). I used the green range of 7% to 10%.

 

The ATP is affected by other matters than just inflation such as PLF/standard screen ratios regarding Dune 1 and 2. 

 

Does anyone have better datapoints for the ATP difference regarding both inflation and other possible factors between Dune 1 and 2?

 

Estimating the downward trajectory of Dune 1 Thu previews MTC comp of 184-185% and using ATP increase of 8-9% we would get $10.1-10.3M previews averaging ~$10.2M. I'd take the outlier numbers of 9.75 and 10.68 out and say that with current MTC and ATP comp data, it's around 80-90% probability that Thu previews hit between $9.9M and 10.5M (unless someone shows that the ATP is way off?).

 

 

Then we come to the OW (incl. EA) estimates and I got the above. Weekend MTC numbers look good for IM but let's assume that it'll be just 7.5 and Thu previews of $9.9M and we'll get $76.3M OW at the lower end. If we assume the $10.5m higher-end Thu previews and excellent WOM to drive the IM past Dune 1's 8.05 to even 8.2 we would get the $88.1M as the higher-end OW which could be said "the best case" but is that 5% or 10% chance, who knows.

 

All-in-all, I'd say that with around 80% confidence level with current datapoints from MTC and ATP Dune 1 comps and early signs from today, the floor is $76M and the ceiling $88M for Dune Part 2 OW. I.e. 20% chance it's outside that range.

 

The mid-point with 7.8-7.9 IM and $10.2M Thu previews would be ~$82M OW (incl. EA).

 

Again, would be great to have more data on the ATP comp. The MTC we'll know better tonight.

 

Edited February 29 by von Kenni
Making a new updated version

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

Idk but maybe adding your previous comps would make you get a more accurate final figure. All things considered, Dune may actually fail the 10M mark this Thursday. Sunday shows got them 1.9M, so let’s see if WB announces previews box office at under 11.9M (meaning that Dune didn’t get 10M Thursday).

 

 

 

 

 

 

24 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yeah, that's bad, fell behind the Aquaman et all pace last two days, agree with your analysis.  Of the films for which I have collected your Orlando data, the +57% growth from T-7 to T-1 for Dune II is near the bottom of the list, chilling with the CBMs like GOTG3 and Flash (but not on Marvels level)

 

But maybe don't be so quick to throw out those other comps (especially Aquaman 2) , because I doubt we're going to see an Oppy-like +30% final day, and at ~4800 final sales (+20%), sub-$10M would be very much in play for your market

 

Now I've very curious to see the MTC1 update later tonight...

Added ATSV and Aquaman back and ouch

 

Going to watch to see if this is an isolated trend in Orlando only or seen in other markets. The average comp is actually very close to @katnisscinnaplex market(s)

[charlie Jatinder]

21 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Charlie used a very conservative number of 5%

I used actual raw gross of Dune 1 and Dune 2.

[von Kenni]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I used actual raw gross of Dune 1 and Dune 2.

I realized it now and am feeling silly... in MTC T-2 it was +5.26% ... is it that low due to Dune 2 having possibly better ratio toward standard screens than Dune 1? ... ticket prices inflation-wise should be higher so other factors need to suppress it.

[leoh]

19 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

Added ATSV and Aquaman back and ouch

 

Going to watch to see if this is an isolated trend in Orlando only or seen in other markets. The average comp is actually very close to @katnisscinnaplex market(s)

Earlier today Keysersoze123 also pointed it out to a 9.5M figure for Thursday. So it seems it is not only in your market.

[Cmasterclay]

Looking like the 73/187 that John Wick 4 seems like the realistic domestic target for Dune. I had it at 55/140 last summer so certainly outpunched what I thought!

[charlie Jatinder]

Seems like a meh day in MiniTC2 with pace coming back to pre Monday level against Oppy/Av2.

[emoviefan]

The casuals aren't going to show up are they.

[von Kenni]

14 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Comp with Dune 1

THU

T-7: 184%
-4: 182%

-3: 188%
-2: 187% ($9.53M, inf adj $10M)

FRI

T-7: 188%
-4: 187%
-3: 190%
-2: 188% ($23.3M, inf adj $25M)
 

Dune 1 had poor walkups on final day, Dune 2 has potential to improve there a bit, unless ofc it repeats as well
 

 

A NEW GO WITH UPDATED ATPs:

 

I decided to build some estimates based on Charlie's MTC comps with Dune 1. We'll know much more later today when we get the T-1 MTC numbers but based on the above I created the tables below. THU Dune 2/Dune 1 ratio seems to be heading down again after Monday's EA bump. The first table estimates the THU previews (excl. EA) from the worst case of finishing 182% compared to Dune 1 and the best case holding at 187% at the latest by beating the poor walkups of Dune 1 on T-0. That should be a reasonable range with current data. ATP ratio with Dune 2 was 5.26% higher than Dune 1 yesterday and 5.33% higher the day before. This downward trajectory might be because the sales outside PLF screens are picking up and probably continue downward.

 

Estimating the downward trajectory of Dune 1 Thu previews MTC comp of 184-185% and using ATP increase of 5.2% we would get $9.87-9.93M previews averaging ~$9.9M. I'd say that with current MTC and ATP comp data, it's around 80-90% probability that Thu previews hit between $9.76M and 10.04M (subject to change after today's MTC data).

 

 

Then we come to the OW (incl. EA) estimates and I got the above. Weekend MTC numbers look good for IM but let's assume that it'll be just 7.5 and Thu previews of $9.76M and we'll get $75.2M OW at the lower end. If we assume the $10.04m higher-end Thu previews and excellent WOM to drive the IM past Dune 1's 8.05 to even 8.2 we would get the $84.3M as the higher-end OW which could be said "the best case" but is that 5% or 10% chance, who knows.

 

All-in-all, I'd say that with around 80% confidence level with current datapoints from MTC and ATP Dune 1 comps and early signs from today, the floor is $75M and the ceiling $84M for Dune Part 2 OW. I.e. 20% chance it's outside that range.

 

The mid-point with 7.8-7.9 IM and $9.9M Thu previews would be ~$80M ($79.7M) OW (incl. EA*).

 

*assuming $2M EA

 

PS. Just for Leoh's sake, if it has Dune 1's IM all these previews take it over $80M