The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Brainbug]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

::Checks in on weekend sales numbers::

Hey, um guys (& gals!)...

 

All indications are for a very strong upward trajectory from here on out. Growth rates for both MTC1 and Sacto are tracing among the highest data points in their respective data sets, most notably and aptly Transformers ROTB. Keeping up that pace, as Keyser and Porthos both indicated, puts $8M in previews solidly in play, and wouldn't take too much more of push to flirt with $9M: The one catch is that late dropping - and potentially poor - reviews may derail momentum, plus whatever impact the NCAA Sweet 16 games have in keeping some of the male skewing demo home; those factors do soften the floor, giving a Thursday range of like $7-$9M

 

Based solely on growth rates, would put final targets at approximately (as this is Q&D analysis)

MTC1 = 150-160K

Sacto = ~4500

See above for why those targets may not verify, but that's where currently trajectory predicts

Florida = not enough data to estimate, but will be very interested in seeing the Miami walk-ups, given how this market/state perform on Jurassic films

 

The weekend pattern and corresponding IM is tricky with the holiday, but currently Friday sales in MTC1 is 70% higher than Trans ROTB at T-3,  which would comp to $28-$29M, and while I think the fan nature of Godzilla and holiday effect probably means that doesn't quite pan out, mid-$20M range seems like a good target, with a BPWF like 2x Thursday almost certainly the floor. Saturday likely drops from TFri (See F8ate of Furious), to something around ~2.5x Thur [See Trans ROTB, JWD, and Godzilla KOTM], and rolling it all up gives an approximate 8x+ IM, for a full weekend of expectation of $60-$75M, most likely in the Black Adam/Fast X range of high $60M

 

The amount of citys i would destroy for a 75M OW ...

[THUNDER BIRD]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

The amount of citys i would destroy for a 75M OW ...

I'll join.

[M37]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

The amount of citys i would destroy for a 75M OW ...

Based purely on numbers, that value is in play, and wouldn’t even rule out $80M, but do think Easter weekend family activities soften the OW (esp Sat & Sun) a bit, and probably would need good - or at least fan pleasing - reviews for that kind of push.

 

But $70M+? Yeah, that’s a good high end target from here, something like $8.5/$24.5/$22/$15 = $72M

Edited March 26 by M37

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

Based purely on numbers, that value is in play, and wouldn’t even rule out $80M, but do think Easter weekend family activities soften the OW (esp Sat & Sun) a bit, and probably would need good - or at least fan pleasing - reviews for that kind of push.

 

But $70M+? Yeah, that’s a good high end target from here, something like $8.5/$24.5/$22/$15 = $72M

Holidays usually have an increase at the box office as going to the movies is usually one of those activities. Is Easter different from the norm?

[M37]

25 minutes ago, ReturnOfTheBoxOffice said:

Holidays usually have an increase at the box office as going to the movies is usually one of those activities. Is Easter different from the norm?

“Holidays increase box office” depends on circumstances. Like Christmas Day yes, Christmas Eve absolutely not, and ones like Thanksgiving and July 4 are more mixed bag

 

From my experience, what happens for Easter weekend is that Good Friday absolutely sees a boost, but then family and/or religious activities pull away some potential audience (similar to the weekend before Halloween), while the time off can bring in some others. Overall, it’s a slight net negative to some films, slight boost to others, and I think GxK will fall more on the former side based on expected demo skews

[el sid]

Monkey Man, counted yesterday for Thursday, April 4. 10 days left.

 

It had 450 sold tickets with best sales in the AMCs in San Francisco and LA.

 

Comps (all counted for Thursday): Uncharted (3.7M from previews) had with 9 days left 658 sold tickets.

Argylle (1.7M) had with 6 days left 482 sold tickets.

The Beekeeper (2.4M, must have had very good walk-ups) had on Monday of the release week 207 sold tickets.

BT (4.6M) had also on Monday of the release week 879 sold tickets.

And Dungeons and Dragons (4.1M Thursday only) had again on Monday of the release week 724 sold tickets.

Silent Night (250k) finally (on Thursday for Thursday) had 150 sold tickets.

 

Doing better in my theaters than Argylle but worse than Uncharted. The presales number itself is fine but it also needs decent jumps and walk-ups and so far, especially with a lot of competition from other films I'm not convinced that this will happen. I guess that it won't jump much until Monday/Tuesday of next week because the focus is almost completely on GxK so until then I have to be patient.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

The question for me is whether it can outopen Dune 2. It felt like a solid possibility but last few days have been a bit slow for that. Still could make a comeback. 

 

@TwoMisfits can you tell about GxK offers and when do they begin.

[charlie Jatinder]

36 minutes ago, M37 said:

“Holidays increase box office” depends on circumstances. Like Christmas Day yes, Christmas Eve absolutely not, and ones like Thanksgiving and July 4 are more mixed bag

 

From my experience, what happens for Easter weekend is that Good Friday absolutely sees a boost, but then family and/or religious activities pull away some potential audience (similar to the weekend before Halloween), while the time off can bring in some others. Overall, it’s a slight net negative to some films, slight boost to others, and I think GxK will fall more on the former side based on expected demo skews

Thursday before Good Friday get boost too. If comps are around $8M by WED night, can expect them to end $9-10M due to THU being holiday eve.

[M37]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thursday before Good Friday get boost too. If comps are around $8M by WED night, can expect them to end $9-10M due to THU being holiday eve.

I do generally agree, and comps for ROTB are already at $8M, but coinciding with the NCAA tournament games and the demo skew likely being more weekend heavy, think there a limit to final day surge, putting $9M in play but not $10M

 

The walk-up heaviest films like JWD et all max out at around +67% final day for MTC1, expecting similar here 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

I do generally agree, and comps for ROTB are already at $8M, but coinciding with the NCAA tournament games and the demo skew likely being more weekend heavy, think there a limit to final day surge, putting $9M in play but not $10M

 

The walk-up heaviest films like JWD et all max out at around +67% final day for MTC1, expecting similar here 

Not predicting 10, just saying that if by WED night it is in 8 range, can reach 10.

[keysersoze123]

Normally movies do like 3-4x the wednesday PS on thursday at MTC1. Sometimes movies do even better like say Venom 2 or Minions. This can do 5x as thursday evening should behave like Friday and Friday walkups tend to be way better than thursday. Friday should behave like saturday and so walkups will be even better than that. 

 

I want to see the pace today before going overboard on the predictions. Let us see if there is any acceleration as show counts will increase a lot today as well. 

Edited March 26 by keysersoze123

[el sid]

The tickets for The First Omen are on sale!

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The question for me is whether it can outopen Dune 2. It felt like a solid possibility but last few days have been a bit slow for that. Still could make a comeback. 

 

@TwoMisfits can you tell about GxK offers and when do they begin.

 

There aren't any now.  No TMobile/Atom deal, and last week's B2G1 free Fandango deal ended Sunday night.

 

I'll look if anything later has popped up last minute...

[M37]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Not predicting 10, just saying that if by WED night it is in 8 range, can reach 10.

Yeah it’s a holiday eve, but some of these comps are straight middle of summer, and people know it’s a holiday so that factor is somewhat already baked into current presale numbers (ie people who normally work Fri buying tickets for Thur).
 

To me, It’s not a coincidence that growth rate values within genre are mostly consistent even across seasons, and so seeing that much of an gain just on the final day vs comps doesn’t seem realistic 

[titanic2187]

3 hours ago, ReturnOfTheBoxOffice said:

Holidays usually have an increase at the box office as going to the movies is usually one of those activities. Is Easter different from the norm?

After Covid, the holiday bump, including Christmas to New year, have become generally weaker. But after the multiple strong Saturday increase, this year holiday bump could be stronger.  

[Brainbug]

For me, 8M Previews would already be fantastic considering many here felt the movie would open more in the 50M range for the last few months.

 

10M Previews would just be nutty. At that point, i would probably be insufferable on the forums (more than already mind you)

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

::Checks in on weekend sales numbers::

Hey, um guys (& gals!)...

 

All indications are for a very strong upward trajectory from here on out. Growth rates for both MTC1 and Sacto are tracing among the highest data points in their respective data sets, most notably and aptly Transformers ROTB. Keeping up that pace, as Keyser and Porthos both indicated, puts $8M in previews solidly in play, and wouldn't take too much more of push to flirt with $9M: The one catch is that late dropping - and potentially poor - reviews may derail momentum, plus whatever impact the NCAA Sweet 16 games have in keeping some of the male skewing demo home; those factors do soften the floor, giving a Thursday range of like $7-$9M

 

 

could have ALSO worked as a gif choice. 

 

...

 

I suspect if @Brainbug was the one doing the analysis, that would have been in the post.  😛

 

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

“Holidays increase box office” depends on circumstances. Like Christmas Day yes, Christmas Eve absolutely not, and ones like Thanksgiving and July 4 are more mixed bag

 

From my experience, what happens for Easter weekend is that Good Friday absolutely sees a boost, but then family and/or religious activities pull away some potential audience (similar to the weekend before Halloween), while the time off can bring in some others. Overall, it’s a slight net negative to some films, slight boost to others, and I think GxK will fall more on the former side based on expected demo skews

 

This is actually interesting.  Xmas Eve is always and always will be on the Absolutely Not list.  But it wasn't that long ago that BOT had the informal Memorial Day Weekend Deathslot/Sacrifice meme going due to film after film after film underperforming on MDW.

 

Lots and lots and lots of analysis was performed over the years attempting to figure out why films were underperforming on MDW.  Travel was the biggest, and probably most compelling, reason cited.  After Aladdin and Top Gun Maverick over-performed, just turns out that the public didn't feel like coming out for shitty undesirable films.  Go figure. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Not that you're wrong about Easter Weekend analysis.  But this was something I've been thinking about posting lately, and this was as good a jumping point on as any.

[M37]

Deadline GxK preview

 

Quote

The international launch is eyed in the $80M-$85M range, while domestic is around $50M per current presales.

[kayumanggi]