The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Cookson]

Won’t China alone have a pretty big launch? That seems kinda low by deadline. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[el sid]

The short version, due to my PC problems with this page:

 

GxK, counted today for Thursday, had 1.437 sold tickets. 

Very even sales (which is a good sign because it means people everywhere are interested): in my four bigger theaters it had around 300-400 sold tickets, in the three smaller ones it were ca. 50. In fact, these are the most even sales I saw this year.

 

Comps (all counted on Tuesday for Thursday): Godzilla Minus One (2.1M from Wed+Thu, I think it were 1.1M Thursday only (would be helpful to know)) had 224 sold tickets = 7M (I guess GxK will have better walk-ups).

Meg 2 (3.2M from previews, very good walk-ups) had 338 sold tickets = 13.6M (very probably a bit too optimistic).

Dungeons & Dragons (4.1M Thursday only) had 820 sold tickets = 7.2M.

And JWD (18M) had 3.483 sold tickets = 7.4M.

 

Average: 8.8M (thanks to Meg 2).

PS: It's always pure Thursday, no EA or other shows included.

 

Edited March 26 by el sid

[NashvilleGojira]

https://deadline.com/2024/03/godzilla-x-kong-the-new-empire-box-office-1235868869/

 

So Deadline reported $135m “NET” production cost…could there have been that significant of tax incentives to film GxK primarily in Australia? In the ballpark of $50m +\-? 

 

Also on a separate topic…they really appear to be pulling out all of the stops with their international marketing campaign for this movie, just going all out 

[Brainbug]

Oh man im so happy. King of the Monsters' underperformance nearly killed my passion for following box office back then so to see the new movie doing this well in presales feels especially good.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Cookson said:

Won’t China alone have a pretty big launch? That seems kinda low by deadline. 

Why would you expect deadline to be any kind of expert on OS BO. I am not sure studio low balled and gave this number setting low expectations. 

 

Based on Maoyan the OW in China will be close to 50m OW. Asia will do great as well as should Latin America. @charlie Jatinder is good at predicting OS OW. ask in OS thread for the movie. 

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Oh man im so happy. King of the Monsters' underperformance nearly killed my passion for following box office back then so to see the new movie doing this well in presales feels especially good.

 

Not to bring you down, but I do think we probably want to wait 'till we see all of today's numbers from various markets before getting too giddy one way or the other.

 

Since this is a walkup heavy franchise/genre, I'd call today Moving Day (to steal a golfing term) in that today's gonna be the day where we really see if 7m, 8m or even 9m is more likely than not.  Particularly interested in seeing my internal patterns before I jump on the 8m+ train.

 

FWIW, if a gun were to my head?  Prob be in the 7.25m - 8.5m range, with me shorting 8m.  But I really want to see Tue numbers before committing as this could indeed sail past 8m with little difficulty.  But it also could still start with a 7.

 

...

 

Maybe I'll have a prezzie for you when you wake up tomorrow morning.  Just have to see, I suppose. 🙂 

 

[cooldude97]

 

[jeffthehat]

On 3/25/2024 at 4:37 PM, jeffthehat said:

Malco

Godzilla X Kong: New Empire T-3

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	814	11858	68
Fri	1381	21154	111

Thu Comps

1.13x Ghostbusters FE = $5.3m

0.56x Dune 2 = $5.6m

Fri Comps

1.55x Ghostbusters FE = $17.5m

0.67x Dune 2 = 13.6m

 

THU AVG = $5.45m

FRI AVG = $15.55m

--- 

Entered wrong numbers last update

Malco

Godzilla X Kong: New Empire T-2

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	957	11858	68
Fri	1708	21541	114

Thu Comps

1.17x Ghostbusters FE = $5.5m

0.60x Dune 2 = $6.0m

Fri Comp

0.67x Dune 2 = $15.0m

 

THU AVG = $5.75m

---

Thursday comps rose but not by a ton. +17.6% growth on the day. Friday growth a lot better though. 

[jeffthehat]

On 3/25/2024 at 4:44 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire T-3

Sales	Seats	Shows
1615	28352	163

Comps

0.69x Dune 2 T-3 = $6.9m

1.16x Ghostbusters FE T-3 = $5.4m

 

AVG = $6.15m

Indiana

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
1905	30759	179

Comps

0.72x Dune 2 T-2 = $7.2m

1.20x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $5.7m

1.61x Madame Web V-day = $9.7m

 

AVG = $7.53m

---

+17.9% growth on the day, almost same as Malco. Added Madame Web opening Wednesday as a high-growth comp. 

[leoh]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Deadline GxK preview

 

 

Deadline projection for GxK:NE opening weekend is at 50M domestically. By your reaction you fully disagree, but Deadline looks reasonable when we compare GxK:NE with Dune pre sales.
 

When we compare both, GxK is 40%-45% behind Dune pre sales (MTC1), as you can see in the breakdown I did. So it seems to me that 50M-55M is the most likely range for GxK:NE OW.

 

 

 

Edited March 26 by leoh

[cooldude97]

15 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

Deadline projection for GxK is 50M domestic OW. By your reaction you fully disagree, but Deadline looks reasonable when we compare GxK:NE with Dune pre sales.
 

When we compare both, GxK is 40%-45% behind Dune pre sales (MTC1), as you can see in the breakdown I did. So it seems to me that 50M-55M is the most likely range for GxK:NE OW.

 

 

M37 has proven to be more reliable than deadline the past few years 

Edited March 26 by cooldude97

[leoh]

35 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

M37 has proven to be more reliable than deadline the past few years 

 

@M37 has been doing a great work for years now. The fact that you disagree with someone doesn’t mean you don’t respect his work. 

Edited March 26 by leoh

[lorddemaxus]

I feel like we all gotta make a concerted effort as a community to ignore the guy who we all can tell doesn't know what he's talking about.

[Eric the Ape]

Moderation

 

@leoh has been threadbanned for 3 days for consistent concern trolling. Please carry on.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/25/2024 at 7:54 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

G x K: The New Empire

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
644	5607	128867	4.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

839

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

61

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.657x) of Dune 2 $6.11M  

(1.187x) of Ghostbusters $5.58M  

Comps average: $5.85M 

 

This was a really good day

FLORIDA 

 

G x K: The New Empire

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
644	6803	128867	5.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1196

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(0.676x) of Dune 2 $6.29M  

(1.212x) of Ghostbusters $5.70M  

(1.999x) of Mean Girls $6.60M  

Comps average: $6.20M 

 

Really strong pace continues. If this keeps up, Florida will be over $7M by T-0

[M37]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Not to bring you down, but I do think we probably want to wait 'till we see all of today's numbers from various markets before getting too giddy one way or the other.

 

Since this is a walkup heavy franchise/genre, I'd call today Moving Day (to steal a golfing term) in that today's gonna be the day where we really see if 7m, 8m or even 9m is more likely than not.  Particularly interested in seeing my internal patterns before I jump on the 8m+ train.

 

FWIW, if a gun were to my head?  Prob be in the 7.25m - 8.5m range, with me shorting 8m.  But I really want to see Tue numbers before committing as this could indeed sail past 8m with little difficulty.  But it also could still start with a 7.

 

...

 

Maybe I'll have a prezzie for you when you wake up tomorrow morning.  Just have to see, I suppose. 🙂 

 

Famous last words and all, but nah, the moving days were over the weekend, and Monday’s updates only confirmed it wasn’t a fluke. Pace should be pretty well established until T-1 - the train has already left the station so to speak 

 

The only open question (to me at least) is really on final day walk-ups, in how the competing forces of late review drop, Fri holiday and potential MCBB audience overlap work to push the final number up or down 

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

Famous last words and all, but nah, the moving days were over the weekend, and Monday’s updates only confirmed it wasn’t a fluke. Pace should be pretty well established until T-1 - the train has already left the station so to speak 

 

The only open question (to me at least) is really on final day walk-ups, in how the competing forces of late review drop, Fri holiday and potential MCBB audience overlap work to push the final number up or down 

 

Well, we might be violently agreeing, as the phrase goes, but I'm talking about movement within your 7m-9m range.  So today might show which end of the range (or middle for that matter) is more likely.

[SaltyPistola]

On 3/24/2024 at 5:15 PM, leoh said:

67M???? Don’t set yourself up for deception…

 

Moster-Verse is a declining franchise, Monster-Verse movies are declining every new instalment they release.

 

2014 200M
2016 160M
2019 110M

2021 100M

 

However, WB will release it during Easter break long weekend (Friday to Monday), when ~68% of schools will be closed this year. This may help it to surpass the previous 48M OW.

 

So currently I’d say 50-55M is more realistic.

Monster-verse movies aren’t a big deal in the US. International market is the reason why Legendary carries on producing these movies. And it seems it’ll do pretty well in China.

 

 

 

Give me some of whatever you are smoking rn, cause clearly it's strong af.

[SaltyPistola]

4 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Oh man im so happy. King of the Monsters' underperformance nearly killed my passion for following box office back then so to see the new movie doing this well in presales feels especially good.

2019 hit us pretty bad.. but now the MCU is down the drain and the G Man has an Oscar and potentially the biggest opening of the year.

 

If you come for the king, you best not miss.