The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 69155/640680 1297769.61 3491 shows +10487

Friday - 80734/1083696 1441303.64 6044 shows +16099

 

Flattish day for previews. Not surprised after how things went yesterday and lack of any catalyst. Friday did go up a bit and I feel good about 20m+ True Friday or even more once we get to gauge walkups on thursday. I am still feeling good about my prediction yesterday.  

Think 150K MTC1 be enough for $9M previews. Seems doable for now.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[NashvilleGojira]

So with @charlie Jatinder's $100m+ OS prediction plus domestic GxK looking in the mid 60's...with a little luck internationally this could be getting close to Dune 2's $182.5m total opening, that's really incredible considering EARLY estimates 

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, M37 said:

I know your Transformers track was a Q&D, but that comp includes the EA shows, correct?

 

Forgot RotB had EA when I made my comments last night.  Anyway, yes it would have and yes it did.

 

Quote

Quick and Dirty Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Sacto Report [T-2]

2502/24862 [10.06% sold] [+524 tickets] [Wed: + 141 | Thr: + 383]

0.32624x the sales of JWD at T-3                   [6.57m]

0.91068x the sales of Black Adam at T-3       [7.40m]

0.74726x the sales of Wick 4 at T-3               [6.96m]

0.96206x the sales of Fast X at T-3                [7.87m]

 

[Legion Again]

55 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

We all know you, too, would like to see the number begin with a 7 more, Shawn.

 

I would not like to see the number begin with a 7  

[Brainbug]

Just now, Legion Again said:

I would not like to see the number begin with a 7  

 

Well then the question is, do you mean with that

 

a) that you dont like the Monsterverse movies and would like to see the movie open on the low end of expectations in which case why are you so mean?

b) you would like to see an 8, in which case im fully on board!

c) you generally dislike the number 7.

 

Im eagerly anticipating your answer.

[Eric the Ape]

Quorum Updates

Civil War T-16: 28.75%

Abigail T-23: 25.08%

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-44: 53.42%

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-163: 45.22%

Wolfs T-177: 15.95%

Gladiator 2 T-240: 31.23%

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-2: 64.80% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 91% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 74% chance of 50M, 61% chance of 60M, 48% chance of 70M, 35% chance of 80M, 30% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 88% chance of 40M, 78% chance of 60M, 44% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 22% chance of 100M

 

Challengers T-30: 17.67% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

 

Tarot T-37: 23.31% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Tentpole Awareness: 56% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

 

Furiosa T-58: 26.54% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 12% chance of 30M, 9% chance of 40M, 3% chance of 70M, 2% chance of 80M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 40M

[M37]

Looked a bit more into data this morning, and I’m starting to think $7-$9M for GxK was a bit too cautious, even after the flattish Tue sales 

 

Going to bump that up a smidge to $7.5-$9.5M, making $70M right around the midpoint 

Edited March 27 by M37
I can't type :-(

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

Well then the question is, do you mean with that

 

a) that you dont like the Monsterverse movies and would like to see the movie open on the low end of expectations in which case why are you so mean?

b) you would like to see an 8, in which case im fully on board!

c) you generally dislike the number 7.

 

Im eagerly anticipating your answer.

You must look inside your heart to find the truth 

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

Well then the question is, do you mean with that

 

a) that you dont like the Monsterverse movies and would like to see the movie open on the low end of expectations in which case why are you so mean?

b) you would like to see an 8, in which case im fully on board!

c) you generally dislike the number 7.

 

Im eagerly anticipating your answer.

he only likes the number 7 as the second digit and followed by a .5

Edited March 27 by JustLurking

[HummingLemon496]

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

he only likes the number 7 as the second digit and followed by a .5

Ah yes, the "17.5 Marvel 2023 preview law"

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Looked at bit more into data this morning, and I’m starting to think $7-$9M for GxK was a bit too cautious, even after the flattish Tue sales 

 

Going to bump that up at bit to $7.5-$9.5M, making $70M right arounf the midpoint 

 

You know, I feel like Porthos when there's a TMobile/Atom deal...I look at my MTC2's in my area, which is on spring break, and I say, "Self, does this looking like a $70M opener in presales right now", and I have to say no.  But I don't doubt strength elsewhere...it's just not at an MTC 2 spring break area...ie - this is not drawing families, at least here.  Almost all sales for Thurs/Fri are evening only...

 

PS - This is fun to watch, even as I play no part.

PPS - Okay, I'll play a little part - my PLF local isn't even giving Godzilla all PLF - it's splitting with Ghostbusters (did I mention we're on spring break here)...

Edited March 27 by TwoMisfits

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

30 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

You know, I feel like Porthos when there's a TMobile/Atom deal...I look at my MTC2's in my area, which is on spring break, and I say, "Self, does this looking like a $70M opener in presales right now", and I have to say no.  But I don't doubt strength elsewhere...it's just not at an MTC 2 spring break area,,,ie - this is not drawing families, at least here.  Almost all sales for Thurs/Fri are evening only...

 

PS - This is fun to watch, even as I play no part.

PPS - Okay, I'll play a little part - my PLF local isn't even giving Godzilla all PLF - it's splitting with Ghostbusters (did I mention we're on spring break here)...

Monsterverse has always been very family heavy. Would be odd if this is the movie that breaks that trend.

[M37]

47 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

You know, I feel like Porthos when there's a TMobile/Atom deal...I look at my MTC2's in my area, which is on spring break, and I say, "Self, does this looking like a $70M opener in presales right now", and I have to say no.  But I don't doubt strength elsewhere...it's just not at an MTC 2 spring break area...ie - this is not drawing families, at least here.  Almost all sales for Thurs/Fri are evening only...

 

PS - This is fun to watch, even as I play no part.

PPS - Okay, I'll play a little part - my PLF local isn't even giving Godzilla all PLF - it's splitting with Ghostbusters (did I mention we're on spring break here)...

Here’s the thing - you’re right! Sales now probably don’t look like a $70M opening? Hence the $50M WB/Deadline forecast. However, we also haven’t had this (potentially) walk-up friendly of a big name release since … probably Meg 2 last August (or even Equalizer 3), and Transformers ROTB before that.

The string of major openings (excluding horror & family friendly ones that are always late breaking) have been (in reverse order): Dune II, Aquaman 2, HG:BoSS, FNAF, & ERAS - all with a much stronger fan base/early buy component. Compared to those titles, sales likely look relatively weaker, but it’s what I expect to happen - based on the growth over last 5 days - that sets GxK apart. Plus the holiday boost effect, and this being the first real casual popcorn action flick in a long time 

 

My only real hesitation is with the late reviews being bad and cutting off momentum, or I’d be more confident in the higher forecast 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, M37 said:

My only real hesitation is with the late reviews being bad and cutting off momentum, or I’d be more confident in the higher forecast 

 

Not to bring this back up, but this is why I was interested in seeing Tuesday sales as even for very walkup based properties they tend to be something of a harbinger of how good the walkups will be.  

 

FWIW, the sales yesterday weren't quite what I was hoping for, at least in Sacramento, but there weren't bad enough for me to slam on the brakes, either.  I was hoping for something closer to 500 tickets sold, or at least closer to 475.  As it was, still good enough for me to float my personal midpoint a bit higher than it was.

 

Have some other thoughts, particularly about how demos might be affecting sales in different parts of the country.  But they're kinda half baked so probably leave them to the side for now (if I even bring them up at all).

Edited March 27 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

I dont know about previews for sure, but Friday is not missing 20m at this point. Its a holiday boosted BO on that day. Question is how much higher it can go above 20m is going to decide where its going to end up for the week. "Just" 20m would mean low 60s OW at this point. 

[M37]

28 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Not to bring this back up, but this is why I was interested in seeing Tuesday sales as even for very walkup based properties they tend to be something of a harbinger of how good the walkups will be.  

 

FWIW, the sales yesterday weren't quite what I was hoping for, at least in Sacramento, but there weren't bad enough for me to slam on the brakes, either.  I was hoping for something closer to 500 tickets sold, or at least closer to 475.  As it was, still good enough for me to float my personal midpoint a bit higher than it was.

Keep mind, Tue/T-2 has become the norm for reviews to be released, and (as you know) I still believe that has the effect of increasing awareness of the opening and helping to drive sales, regardless of the quality of reviews. Paramount lifted the ROTB embargo early that T-2, morning, while GxK is still holding off

 

55 minutes ago, M37 said:

Here’s the thing - you’re right! Sales now probably don’t look like a $70M opening? Hence the $50M WB/Deadline forecast. However, we also haven’t had this (potentially) walk-up friendly of a big name release since … probably Meg 2 last August (or even Equalizer 3), and Transformers ROTB before that.

I know I harp on growth rate, but films like this is where it really matters.  To put some numbers to this, looking at Porthos's Sacto data, specifically what portion of tickets had already been sold by T-2

• Most of the the films mentioned above had already pulled in ~60% (58-65%) of their final (T-0) total by T-2: Indy 5, Barbie, FNAF, Marvels, HB:BoSS
• Dune was actually just a hair under 70%
• The one exception (for this market) was Aquaman 2, which was only at 48%, likely helped by the holiday (and limited fan sales)
• Transformers ROTB was only 50% (including EA, the Thur only portion was even smaller)

GVK should be in that same 45-50% range (if not lower?), which means sales are present are only like 3/4 of where we've become accustomed to seeing. So if current sales look like a $50M opening, its actually a sneaky $65M+ [before adjusting for demo/market skew, for which there likely will be one]

[dudalb]

Godzilla/Kong mvoies are critic proof if any film is.

I have no doubt the human charecters are pretty boring and cliched as hell, but people don't buy tickets to see that. They go to see The Big Guys destory stuff and beat u pon other monasters and each other.

[jeffthehat]

On 3/26/2024 at 5:42 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
1905	30759	179

Comps

0.72x Dune 2 T-2 = $7.2m

1.20x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $5.7m

1.61x Madame Web V-day = $9.7m

 

AVG = $7.53m

---

+17.9% growth on the day, almost same as Malco. Added Madame Web opening Wednesday as a high-growth comp. 

Indiana

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
2328	33179	198

Comps

0.77x Dune 2 T-1 = $7.7m

1.29x Ghostbusters FE T-1 = $6.1m

1.39x Madame Web V-day T-1 = $8.3m

 

AVG = $7.4m

---

Dropped a bit against comps. Thursday hasn't looked that strong in the markets I track but could just be underindexing. No prediction for tomorrow, rooting for $8.5m+